Josh, Author at The Crown Cast

The 2023 Colorado Preview

There’s an interesting–if unsurprising–debate happening online right now about who should be playing for this club currently. Two trends I see:

Enzo can’t play up top alone.
Sobociński should be getting time over Tuiloma.

Both of these ideas confuse me.

First, this team hasn’t scored goals, yet Enzo has 2. Second, and a strong small sample size warning applies here, he’s played about how he should be expected to play. He was a Rios replacement who was supposed to bring the same aspects to the team that Rios did, but better. Well, I’d argue he’s probably meeting that. Here are some indicators for him when compared to other MLS forwards for 2023:

He’s in the 95th percentile for Average Shot Distance, meaning, he’s getting into excellent positions when he shoots.
He’s in the 70th percentile for Shots on Target % and Goals/Shots. He’s only in the 5th percentile for Shots Total, but I don’t think we can blame him for the dysfunction of our attack.
He’s in the 75th percentile for Progressive Passes Received, meaning, he’s consistently making himself available for forward passes from teammates.
He’s in the 75th percentile for Goals-xG, which means he’s outperforming his xG (which is a good thing considering this team’s struggles on the offensive side of the ball).

Are there areas where I’d like to see him improve? Sure. But Enzo is in the mold of a traditional striker. He’s also one that appears to be better in a more transition-based side, whereas CL wants possession.

Enzo hasn’t been perfect, but the frustration with him seems to come from his supposed “antics” (something I disagree with). This subjective anger at “antics” has bled into and created this idea of a “performance” issue. I really am not seeing that. To me he’s often been isolated up top, yet runs his a** off, holds up the ball decently, and seems to take chances when they infrequently come.

The Sobo over Tuiloma argument is even weirder to me. We have allowed a ton of goals this year and we have had numerous errors from defenders that have led to it (Tuiloma’s own goal and his bad back pass, Malanda’s bad back pass, Byrne’s bad back pass). We’ve allowed 4 goals, though. Those defensive errors are important, but they’re not the main reason that we’re allowing so many goals. It’s a team issue.

There is consistently loads of space between lines for opponents to exploit, both in terms of passing and positioning. Charlotte’s backline often has multiple attackers running at it, seemingly unopposed by anyone in the midfield. Our midfield has been porous and it’s coupled with CL’s usage of fullbacks, which allows space in behind. I believe in Sobo’s talent, but he’s not making a meaningful difference in this squad right now. We’re not talking prime van Dijk here. Frankly, I don’t believe he’s better than Tuiloma right now and I don’t think it’s particularly close.

To my eyes, Sobociński has struggled with the Legacy. How is that going to get better at the MLS-level? Sobo is talked about as if he’s this exceedingly young CB. He’s young at only 24, but at 24 Tuiloma was in his 2nd season with Portland and had made 37 total appearances with 30 starts. He made 57 appearances and 43 starts for Portland over the next 2 seasons. Sobociński has made 9 career MLS appearances with just 3 starts.

Yet, Sobo is talked about as if he must be played due to some great potential talent. I would argue Tuiloma is more talented, plus has MLS experience.

In my opinion, the real reason that people are calling for Tuiloma to be replaced has to do with:

We’ve shipped a ton of goals this season, so the correlation equals causation fallacy comes into play and Tuiloma is taking that blame.
His 2 mistakes led directly to goals.

Regarding those 2 errors, as I honestly think that’s what colors the opinion of most people about Tuiloma. Those errors should not be dismissed, but, again, I implore you to look at his process over the results. He did everything right in terms of reading the game and positioning in both of those goals; he failed at the end with his execution. That is a problem! You need a defender that will reliably make the play in the big moments. Determining whether a player is reliable requires more than 6 games. The fact that he is closing in on 100 career MLS starts is more important to me right now than his 6 just with Charlotte.

The bottom line is we’re close to the point of “play the kids” but we’re not there yet. Inter Miami started last year with 7 points through their first 7 games (a draw, 4 consecutive losses, and then 2 wins). We are behind that pace, but not in an inconceivable way. Are we likely to make the playoffs based on current form and history? No. But it’s not quite time to throw in the towel.

Finally, I’m going to continue saying this until I’m blue in the face: Christian Lattanzio is NOT going to play a 4-4-2 or any other variation that puts 2 at the top. The only way this becomes a realistic possibility is if we actually see him do it, and we’ve never seen it. Please, I’m begging Charlotte fans to stop having this conversation. It’s tiring and pointless.

Team	Possession	Points (Standings)	WhoScored Team Rating (SofaScore Team Rating)
Charlotte FC	56.9%	5 (14th in the East)	6.50 (6.76)
Colorado Rapids	49.9%	6 (11th in the West)	6.53 (6.80)

Team	Shots per game	Shots on target per game	Goals for (xG)	Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC	10.43	3.43	7 (7.0)	14 (10.7)
Colorado Rapids	11.43	3.29	3 (8.5)	8 (10.1)

On the surface, Colorado seems like a poor offensive team, having only scored 3 goals. However, Colorado’s massive underperformance on goals versus their xG has me worried. I’m not saying they are a juggernaut of an offensive that has had severe bad luck, but a gap between actual goals and xG leads me to believe they’ll revert to the mean shortly.

Charlotte, meanwhile, continues to rack up possession numbers that lead to nothing. We continue to be second in the league behind only LA Galaxy in this category.

Lineup and Roster Breakdown

COL at ATX, 3/25

COL vs. LAFC, 4/1

COL at SKC, 4/8

Colorado is sound defensively. They got hammered in the opening game at Seattle by a score of 4-0, but since then haven’t allowed more than 2 goals in a game. In fact, of their 7 games, they’ve allowed 1 goal or fewer 5 times, including 2 shutouts (one over LAFC, which is an impressive feat).

That defensive stability comes from the fact that they’ve started the same goalkeeper (William Yarbrough) and mostly the same 3 CBs–Lalas Abubakar, Andreas Maxsø, and Danny Wilson–the entire season. Abubakar and Maxsø have started all 7 games, while Wilson has appeared in 6 and started 5, including the last 3.

Wingbacks Keegan Rosenberry and Sam Nicholson have both started 6 games, with Nicholson appearing in all 7. Midfielder Connor Ronan has also started all 7 games.

Over the past 3 games, the front 3 has also been relatively unchanged with Jonathan Lewis and Max starting all 3 of the previous games and Diego Rubio starting 2/3.

Other players like Cole Bassett (5 starts), Darren Yapi (6 apps, 4 starts), Bryan Acosta (4 starts), and Michael Barrios (7 apps, 3 starts) have all seen consistent playing time. In all, this is a team that has a pretty clearly defined starting 11, where the most changes come in the attack. It could explain their underperformance on goals but also helps explain their defensive stoutness.

Like Real Salt Lake who we just saw, Colorado only has 1 Designated Player: Maxsø

Injury

According to the MLS Availability Report, the Rapids were missing 2 players last week: defender Moise Bombito (left knee) and midfielder Jack Price (Achilles). Price will be a big miss for Colorado. The veteran, who also serves as Colorado’s captain, tore his Achilles on 3/20/23, so he’ll miss the entire season.

Midfielders Cole Bassett (left hamstring) and Braian Galvan (groin) were listed as questionable and neither made the bench.

Of note, Maxsø was forced off last week due to an injury. It’s unclear what his status for our matchup is. He would be a miss for them.

Diego Rubio (Forward, CAM)

Rubio began the year injured, which led to him missing the first few games. He’s recently come back into the side, appearing in 3 games and starting 2. He has one of Colorado’s 3 goals.

Rubio is coming off a career year last year. He’s in his 5th season with Colorado and had 16 goals (4 PKs) and 5 assists last year in 30 appearances (28 starts). This was double the number of goals he had over the previous 2 seasons (8 goals in 42 appearances over the 2020 and 2021 seasons). His first season with Colorado saw him get 11 goals and 4 assists in 26 appearances.

So who is he? To be honest, I’m not sure. Part of this is: how do you define him positionally? Colorado lists him as a forward and FBref has him as a “FW, MF.” In 2021, his percentiles are only compared to other MLS forwards, but in 2022, you can compare him to forwards, CAMs/wingers, or midfielders.

In terms of goalscoring, if he’s a forward, those 2 years (2020, 2021) are concerning. If he’s a CAM, they’re fine. If he’s a forward, last year was good! If he’s a CAM, last year was amazing! His heatmaps don’t help.

Rubio 2023 heatmap

Rubio 2022 heatmap

These are definitely not the maps of a forward (and his maps are pretty consistent throughout his years). I’m inclined to view him as a CAM, which makes his goal returns excellent, even in the “down” years.

As a CAM, he’s not a great passer. Compared with the “Men’s Next 8” CAMs, his passing is average. He is decent in long passing (70th percentile for long pass completion %) and he’s trying ambitious passes (77th percentile for passes into the final third, 84th percentile for passes into the penalty area, and 79th percentile for progressive passes). And this leads to him shining with goal and shot creation.

Rubio SCA/GCA vs. CAMs/wingers over the last 365 days in Men’s Next 8 Competitions.

These aren’t the best we’ve ever seen, but they do show a player that will consistently cause issues for defenders.

Darren Yapi (Forward)

I’m not sure we should expect Yapi to start, but he’s an interesting and talented young player. He has made 6 appearances this year with 4 starts but hasn’t started a game since 3/18.

Yapi is only 18 and last year only got into 11 games (1 start). He didn’t have a goal or an assist. This year, he’s only gotten 1 assist. Normally, this wouldn’t read like that interesting of a player, however, I think he is for two reasons. First, I always enjoy young players who break into teams, even if it is limited minutes. Second, in all his appearances last year he had 1.9 90s. So far this year, he’s already at 4.6 90s, meaning, Colorado clearly see him as ready to be part of the first team in a major way.

Further, Colorado has only scored 3 goals all year, so the fact that he hasn’t scored doesn’t mean much to me. What does mean a lot is that he’s the team leader in xG at 1.2 (along with 0.7 xGA).

Yapi 2023 heatmap

Positionally, he’s all over the place on the front line, but on the right he’s getting further toward the end line by a lot. Due to his overall lack of playing time, I don’t think the percentile ranks are hugely relevant yet. With that said, he does appear to take on people readily (5.56 take-ons attempted/90) and has success with it (2.32 successful take-ons/90). He’s someone who also appears to carry the ball well (20.38 carries/90, 40.29 progressive carry yards/90, 1.08 carries into the penalty area/90).

Even if he doesn’t start, it seems likely he’ll come off the bench when Charlotte has tired legs. He looks like a real prospect.

Max (CAM/winger)

Brazilian players do names right. Max. Hulk. Fred (even if it is pronounced as “Fredj”).

Max is a 22-year-old winger in his 2nd season with Colorado. Last year he got into 28 games (9 starts), but didn’t score and only had 1 assist. So far this year, he’s gotten into 6 games (4 starts) and still doesn’t have a goal.

Max 2023 heatmap

He favors the left side of the pitch and doesn’t really get into the penalty area all that much. Considering the positions that Rubio gets into, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

FBref allows him to be compared to midfielders or CAMs/wingers. Based on his heatmap and his position in the starting lineups, I’m going to consider him a CAM/winger.

The shooting numbers are terrible, as you might expect from someone who has yet to score a goal in MLS. The passing and possession numbers, though, are good.

89th percentile for medium passes completed (87th percentile for medium passes attempted)
94th percentile for long passes completed (82nd percentile for long passes attempted)
92nd percentile for passes into the final third
86th percentile for progressive passes
99th percentile for successful take-on % (though only 25th percentile for take-ons attempted)
96the percentile for times tackled during a take-on
94th percentile for dispossessed

He’s not perfect in these categories, obviously. His short passing is oddly poor and he doesn’t carry the ball much or well. However, he is still young and many of these numbers point to someone who has serious attacking potential.

William Yarbrough (GK)

Yarbrough is now in his 4th season with Colorado and has been their #1 since his arrival. Over his 3+ seasons, he’s made 88 starts. He’s been…fine? As with any goalkeeper, the numbers are dependent on a number of factors, but his numbers have been pretty in consistent.

2020: 14 starts, 1.43 GA90, 73.4% save%, 0.0 PSxG+/-
2021: 33 starts, 0.97 GA90, 77.4% save%, +1.3 PSxG+/-
2022: 34 starts, 1.61 GA90, 70.6% save%, -4.8 PSxG+/-
2023: 7 starts, 1.14 GA90, 78.1% save%, +3.1 PSxG+/-

His best season was in 2021 when Colorado finished 1st in the Western Conference and made the conference semifinals. In 2020, they finished 8th in the West, and in 2022 they finished 10th in the West.

I’m not fully confident in making the argument that his performance is a result of the overall team, however, I do think there’s a real argument to be made that he’s not lifting his team. Bad teams allow more goals, so you would expect a goalkeeper to have worse numbers. However, good goalkeepers also help bad teams and I’m not sure I see evidence of that happening either.

The PSxG+/- numbers point to a player who, even in his best year, is just slightly above average, while in bad years (2022) is very bad. His number so far this year is excellent, but he doesn’t have a history of keeping it up. Maybe you could argue that he’s still prime-ish age for a goalkeeper (34), so maybe he’s going to have a career year? I tend to trust history more. I imagine that his PSxG+/- will come down a bit.

Overall, Yarbrough looks like an average keeper to me. In general, if the team is good, he’ll probably play well enough for you to win. If the team is bad, he’ll not do much to help you.

Conclusion

We’re in “must-win” territory now. A home game against a struggling team should be cause for optimism. Like most of you, I don’t feel very optimistic right now.

Colorado has some good players, but there’s not one that jumps out as a “danger man.” Players like Rubio, Yapi, and Max can cause problems to be sure, as can players like Ronan and Abubaker (both of whom I didn’t highlight, but are good players in their own right). If this were late 2022 Charlotte, I’d be exceedingly confident of a win. Right now, I’m wondering if we’ll be able to score.

The biggest question for me is what to do with our midfield. In an ideal world, I’d like to try a Karol-Westy-DJ/Bronico midfield. Swiderski and Bender lacked defensive stability against RSL and I just don’t think you can play both of them in the midfield.

This is what I’m hoping to see on Saturday.

Now, this lineup is based on what I think our availability will look like and, more importantly, what I think is reasonable to expect from Lattanzio. If Westwood is fit, I’d put him in for Bronico. Regardless, I think that this lineup gets the majority of our talent into the side (with Nuno being the glaring exception), while also providing us with the best chance at scoring.

In possession, I’d like to see us set up our midfield/backline with one of these two options:

Have DJ drop between the CBs to give us 3 at the back, if we’re going to push Afful and Lindsey into the middle.
Shift Tuiloma, Malanda, and Lindsey left into a back 3 with Afful and Jones forming a double pivot in the midfield.

My preference is option 2 as I’m not convinced Jaylin has the passing ability I want in the center of the pitch. Don’t get me wrong, he can make some fine passes, but they’re usually not build-up passes.

Vargas and Jóźwiak need to continue to provide width, but I am worried about Vargas’ positioning last game. It was something I noted in-game.

I’d like to see Karol closer to Enzo and Enzo more central. Don’t need them passing but it’s too much space and too easy for RSL defenders to, we’ll, defend. Vargas getting pushed up and a bit wider would be nice too but danger from RSL is coming down our left pic.twitter.com/qCPBDqD2cF
— The Crown Cast (@The_CrownCast) April 9, 2023

It’s further emphasized by his heatmap from that game:

Vargas heatmap at RSL, 4/8

Kerwin Vargas has no business being that far away from the opposing goal. It’s a waste of his talents. Compare the above map to his previous 3 games (ORL, RBNY, TFC):

ORL

RBNY

TFC

Ideally, I want Vargas’ maps to look like the Orlando and Toronto games all the time.

Let’s hope some issues have been ironed out this week, though I’m not confident. This is one of the few times I’m predicting a home loss and probably the only time to a team I don’t consider elite.

Prediction: Charlotte 1 – Colorado 2

Data Notes: All heatmaps come fromSofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come fromFBref.com. All formation graphics are fromMLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us,Wyscout.com, andMLSsoccer.com.

The 2023 Real Salt Lake Preview

Editor’s note: Previews will be a bit different moving forward. Gone is a complete overview of the opposing team, including every player, in favor of spotlighting 3-4 key players. Most, aside from Johs, probably weren’t interested in that much information. For those who enjoyed the old previews, apologies! For those who never read them or had little interest in them, hopefully this new format will be more interesting!

In a vacuum, the draw against Toronto is a really good result. In the real world, the draw against Toronto is still a really good result. So, why do I feel disappointed by it?

I think it’s the manner in which we conceded the goals, especially the first one. Normally, announcers annoy me, but I thought the broadcast team made the correct point that, with the wind the way it was, not having a player on the back post was malfeasance. Perhaps that ball still goes in, but I’d much rather have known we had set up to defend it properly. We were the beneficiaries of an Olympico last year, so there’s no real right to complain, but Jordy didn’t have the benefit of the wind.

Seeing Jóźwiak finally get a goal was wonderful. I’m sure it must feel like a huge weight has been lifted off his shoulders. I hope this is the start of a wave of goal involvement from him.

Kamil has never been as bad as his detractors have said, as he’s consistently added running and defense, along with a little trickiness, to the team. However, he’s also not quite as good as many of his most ardent supporters claim either. At the end of the day, Jóźwiak is a winger. While tracking back on defense and making tackles is all well and good, his primary responsibility is to contribute goals. It’s something he hasn’t done reliably for a few years now. Let’s hope the latter half of last season and this goal are a sign of a newfound goal-contribution reliability.

I also thought he looked pretty good on the right. I’m a longstanding proponent of LW-Jóźwiak-only, but having him on the right does 1) help fill one of the problem positions and 2) allows Vargas to be on the left where he can cut in onto a right-footed shot. If he can continue putting in performances like he did against Toronto from that side, the front 3 is set.

Well, that’s if Copetti doesn’t continue to pick up yellow cards at an alarming rate. He’s currently on 4 yellows; one more will get him a suspension. Part of this accumulation is on Enzo, but I do think he’s picked up at least a couple for…well…I’m not sure why. The RBNY game is a prime example of how I think he’s been officiated a bit differently so far. He gets a yellow for a shoulder charge, but an RBNY player does it in the same spot on the pitch later and only gets a foul.

Enzo right now reminds me of how Granit Xhaka was and can be officiated in the Premier League. Xhaka is another player who skews towards the “hot-headed” end of the spectrum. As a result, Xhaka has often picked up yellows and reds for challenges that others get away with entirely or get away with for far less. Again, some of this is on a player like Xhaka or Enzo; some of it, though, is a reputation that is gained. Players should not be officiated on reputation, though. They should be officiated on what they do. It’s especially alarming that a guy can get a reputation in just a handful of games.

Team	Possession	Points (Standings)	WhoScored Team Rating (SofaScore Team Rating)
Charlotte FC	56.5%	5 (14th in the East)	6.51 (6.77)
Real Salt Lake	49.0%	3 (11th in the West)	6.46 (6.70)

Team	Shots per game	Shots on target per game	Goals for (xG)	Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC	10.00	3.17	5 (6.0)	11 (7.8)
Real Salt Lake	12.40	5.60	3 (4.5)	13 (11.1)

This should be fun. The moveable object meets the stoppable force! I’ll let you decide who is who.

Neither of these teams is particularly good at getting goals. Charlotte is near the bottom of the league in shots per game and shots on target, though we’re second in the league in terms of possession While Real is middle of the road when it comes to getting shots off, their xG is bottom of the entire league. RSL beat Vancouver Matchday 1, but scored both of their goals within 3 minutes of each other in the 2nd half. They have yet to have a player with the designation of “Forward” on FBref score a goal for them. Their leading goalscorer is a defender with 2.

It’s too early to say that our goals allowed are a function of bad luck, but it should be noted that there is a huge discrepancy already between what would be expected and what we’ve actually given up. Note that while Charlotte and RSL have given up a similar number of goals–11 and 13, respectively–the xGA difference is massive (7.8 xGA for Charlotte; 11.1 xGA for RSL). RSL’s xGA is 2nd worse in the league (0.02 behind Montreal). In the East, teams like Inter Miami and New England both have slightly worse xGA–8.4 and 8.2, respectively–but have allowed far fewer actual goals than Charlotte (7 GA for Inter; 6 GA for NE). The Olympico this past weekend certainly plays a part in this discrepancy, but I’m hoping that our defensive record will improve and return to a number closer to the xGA.

For what it’s worth, last year we ended with an xGA of 44.1 but allowed 52 actual goals. Bad to below-average defensive teams will “outperform” their xGA, but I’m not ready to say we’re a bad defensive team just yet. It’s true we haven’t been good, but there have been a lot of moving pieces and reasons for this.

Lineup

RSL vs ATX, 3/11/23

RSL vs. STL, 3/25/23

RSL at CLB, 4/1/23

RSL has been playing a 4-2-3-1 until last week. Now, as always, the formation that is listed on MLS’s site could be correct or not. For instance, they had Charlotte in a 4-5-1 last weekend, while Charlotte’s official Twitter had us in a 4-3-3. Go figure. Perhaps it’s incorrect, or perhaps they did switch it up for this past game. If they did switch it up, it didn’t work as they endured a 2nd straight 4-0 loss.

Regardless of the formation, what should be noted about this team is the utter randomness of their personnel. That’s (probably) hyperbole, but if Charlotte fans are complaining about how much CL chops and changes, I can’t imagine how Salt Lake fans feel.

Aside from their center-back Justen Glad and fullback Andrew Brody, I see no other player that has appeared in each of the past 3 games. Indeed, those are the only two players who have started in each of RSL’s games so far this year. There are only a few other players–midfielder Damir Kreilach and forwards Anderson Julio, Carlos Gómez, and Justin Meram–who have appeared in all 5 games.

I won’t hazard a guess as to who we’ll see.

Injury Report

As of last week’s MLS Availability Report, RSL has quite a few issues (which also likely helps explain the myriad of personnel changes discussed above). Forwards Jefferson Savarino and Daniel Musovski were both listed as “Probable” last week with a calf and ankle issue, respectively. However, neither even made the bench. Defender Marcelo Silva was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury and also didn’t make the bench.

Meanwhile, defenders Bryan Ovideo (calf), Zackery Farnsworth (thigh), and Erik Holt (Achilles) were all listed as “Out.” Midfielder Bode Hidalgo and forward Axel Kei (ankle) were listed as “Out.”

Most of these absences aren’t noteworthy, as most of these players are young and haven’t featured yet or often for RSL. Ovideo is a bit of an exception, as he made 3 starts.

The other potential exception is Kei who is FIFTEEN. He signed a professional contract with RSL as a 14-year-old, breaking Freddy Adu’s record. He made his debut in the USL at the age of 13 (and 8 months)! He’s already listed at 6’1″ and 161 lbs, so physically, he has a body capable of competing at this level. I can’t imagine he gets a ton of playing time at the MLS level this year, but who knows? If he’s good enough to get a contract, he might be good enough to break through. He’s more of an interesting name to know for the future rather than for this game.

Jefferson Savarino (LW, RW, CAM)

Savarino is RSL’s only Designated Player. While he has been listed on the injury report and didn’t feature last week, his “Probable” designation leads me to believe he might be back for our game. This tweet seems to confirm that (though I can’t speak to the veracity of the account).

MLS Players expected to be available for selection to return/make season debut on Saturday: #LAGalaxy Chicharito #InterMiamiCF Leonardo Campana #LegionOfLoons Sang Bin Jeong#VamosUnited Lewis O’Brien #RSL Jefferson Savarino
— MLS NETWORK (@mlsnetwork) April 7, 2023

Savarino is a 26-year-old Venezuelan who rejoined RSL last year from Atlético Mineiro in the Brazilian Série A. He began his career with Zulia in the Venezuelan league, before joining RSL in 2017 as a 20-year-old. He spent 3 seasons with RSL before moving to Mineiro in 2020.

In his first stint with RSL, he made 82 appearances and 78 starts, scoring 21 goals and getting 19 assists. With Mineiro, he made 53 appearances and 40 starts, scoring 14 goals and getting 8 assists. Since his return to Salt Lake, he has made 23 appearances and 20 starts, including 19 appearances last year and 4 this year.

He’s a flat-out productive player. Last year in his 19 appearances (17 starts) he got 7 goals and 4 assists. He has an assist this year already. Further, he’s consistent in his production. From 2018-2020, he made 27-32 starts and scored 7 or 8 goals with 5-9 assists each year. In 2017 he made 19 starts for RSL and in 2021 he made 11 starts for Mineiro. He scored 6 goals in 2017 and 5 in 2021, with 5 assists in 2017 and 2 assists in 2021. Basically, if he starts anywhere near 20 games, he’s going to give you double-digit goal contributions. If he’s starting closer to 30 games, he’ll probably mean in the 13-15 goal/assist range.

On top of that, he’ll play anywhere across the front line (though not as a striker).

Savarino 2023 RSL heatmap

Savarino 2022 RSL heatmap

Savarino 2021 Mineiro heatmap

Savarino 2020/21 Mineiro heatmap

Savarino 2019 RSL heatmap

What’s interesting is that Mineiro used him exclusively as a right-sided player. Prior to his departure to Mineiro, RSL used him in the same way. Since his return, though, they’ve been a lot less strict with this. Last year, he’s all over the pitch, while in his brief time this year, he’s been primarily deployed from the left. He clearly has the versatility to play either side or centrally.

Savarino shooting percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 days

Savarino SCA/GCA percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 days

With his goal-scoring record, I expected him to be a bit higher in these shooting percentiles. What does jump out, though, is his ability from free kicks, as he’s taking a high number as well as creating an insanely high amount of GCAs and SCAs from dead-ball situations.

Savarino passing percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 days

Savarino pass type percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 days

Savarino possession percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 days

Yep, the passing is very good. Ignore the percentage (71.6% and 64th percentile), as the quality is what jumps out. He’s not settling with the ball, but rather making progressive, dangerous passes. The same can be said with his dribbling and carrying ability. Let’s hope he needs another week to recover.

Damir Kreilach (CAM)

The 33-year-old Croat is in his 6th season with RSL, having joined from Union Berlin in 2018. With RSL, Kreilach has made 129 appearances (122 starts), scoring 44 goals and getting 18 assists. His best year, by far, was in 2021 when he made 32 starts, scored 16 goals (0 PKs!), and got 8 assists.

Last year was a lost year for Kreilach due to injury. He made only 5 appearances (3 starts) and scored once. He was injured in April and missed the rest of the season. He’s returned this year to feature in all 5 games and make 4 starts, along with scoring once and getting an assist.

While the 16 goals in 2021 were impressive, it’s a bit out of the ordinary for him. He has 2 other years of double-digit goal scoring: 2018 when he had 12 in his first year with RSL and 2015-16 when he had 12 with Union Berlin. With that said, he still found the back of the net 6 times in 2019 and 8 times in 2020, along with 5 assists across the two seasons. Further, Kreilach isn’t a striker; rather, RSL plays him more as an attacking midfielder.

Kreilach 2021 heatmap

At 33 and coming off an injury, who knows what kind of year he’ll have? Based on his history, as long as he’s returned to health I imagine that he’ll be somewhere in the 5-8 goal range with 3-5 assists. With RSL’s struggles, his numbers may be depressed due to a lack of quality around him.

The big danger* with Kreilach is that, while he doesn’t shoot often (47th percentile for shots total at just 2.08 per 90) when he does he’s extremely accurate (99th percentile for shots on target percentage at 58.3%). A corollary to this precision is the fact that when he shoots, he’s doing so from incredibly dangerous positions. His average shot distance is just 13.30 yards away from the goal, which is good for the 96th percentile. Our defenders and midfielders–especially DJ–are going to have to keep an eye on where he is at all times, but especially so when RSL find themselves in our third and around our box.

*Note: due to his injury absence last year, some of his percentiles are probably skewed. He’s being compared with wingers/CAMs from the Next 8 leagues over the past 365 days. Normally I’d be cautious about including these numbers due to his long injury absence, but when looking at his 2021 season, most are similar. For example, he’s in the 95th percentile for shots on target percentage at 52.7% and he’s in the 76th percentile for average shot distance at 15.70 yards out. I’m confident that while the numbers that look at the past year are a bit skewed for him, they still give a good representation of who he is as a player and where and how he presents danger.

Andrew Brody (FB)

While Brody and Glad are the only two players to have started all 5 games, I find Brody to be the more interesting of the two. Specifically, he’s a fullback that has played extensively as both a left-back and right-back. On the year, he’s made 3 starts at RB and 2 at LB.

Last year, in 34 appearances (33 starts), he was mostly deployed as a LB (21 times) but has a significant amount of time on the right side too (6 times as a RB, 5 times as a RM/RW). He has some designations as a WB (4 times) too, but I’m too lazy to look through each to see what side he was on. The point is, this is a guy who is comfortable on either side and RSL is clearly comfortable with that too.

Last year was his best season from a goal-contribution standpoint in MLS as he scored twice and got 4 assists. Now, he is a bit of a late bloomer. Brody didn’t make his MLS debut until he was 25 in 2021. Prior to that, he spent 6 seasons with the Real Monarchs. He made 101 appearances (88 starts) for the Monarchs, scoring 7 times and getting 8 assists. And that record is important, I think.

In the lower division, he was consistently getting a couple of goals a year and anywhere from 2-4 assists. Last year may have been a career year in a sense, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 1-2 goals and 2-3 assists again this year based on that history.

Brody 2023 heatmap

Brody 2022 heatmap

That’s an overlapping fullback if I’ve ever seen one. Last year’s map is probably influenced by his time as a more attacking wide player (either as a wingback or right-sided midfielder), but he’s clearly a player who likes the touchline.

Brody passing percentiles vs. Next 8 fullbacks over the past 365 days

Brody possession percentiles vs. Next 8 fullbacks over the past 365 days

Brody defensive percentiles vs. Next 8 fullbacks over the past 365 days

So, he’s not in the team for defense. I’d describe him as an above-average offensive fullback. His progressive passing (98th percentile) and passes into the final third (90th percentile) do jump out, as does his carrying ability (97th percentile for progressive carries, 90th percentile for carries into the final third, 86th percentile for carries into the penalty area).

This is meaningful carrying of the ball, too, as he’s only in the 63rd percentile for carries, but in the 93rd percentile for total carrying distance and, more importantly, the 94th percentile for progressive carrying distance. If he improves his overall passing a bit and improves his defense to even below average (rather than just plain bad), he’ll be one of the better fullbacks in the league.

Whichever side he’s on, our wingers need to attack him and the space he’ll leave. My hope is that he’s playing RB again so that Vargas can get in behind him.

Zac MacMath (GK)/Gavin Beavers (GK)

MacMath was RSL’s undisputed #1 last year, as he started all 34 matches. He wasn’t bad either, considering RSL’s overall league position. He allowed 45 goals, had a 73.5% save percentage, and a 1.32 GA90. The PSxG+/- number wasn’t great at -1.9, but that was almost 50% better than Kahlina’s (-3.6).

With all this said, he was benched last week. Perhaps this shouldn’t be too surprising.

MacMath is 31 and last year was his first time as an undisputed #1 since 2014 when he was 22 and with Philadelphia. In fact, with Philadelphia, he made his first starts as a 19-year-old and spent 4 total seasons with the club. He made 102 starts for Philly, but only had a 67.5% save percentage with them, allowing 1.37 goals per 90.

He moved to Colorado for 4 seasons but only got double-digit starts once (17 in 2016). With Colorado, his save percentage (75.0%) and goals allowed per 90 (1.14) were much better, but he also played significantly less. A year stop in Vancouver saw him make just 8 starts. In his first 2 seasons with RSL, he would only make 13 starts.

Basically, until last year, MacMath’s career had been that of a backup. This year in his 4 starts, he allowed 9 goals and had just a 66.67% save percentage. As with any keeper, these stats will be, in part, determined by the defense in front of him. However, with the way the season has started for Real, it’s unsurprising that they would try something different.

In stepped Gavin Beavers. Beavers became the third youngest starting keeper in MLS history at just 17 years old. He allowed 4 goals. The young man must be hoping for better things ahead.

It’ll be curious to see who gets the nod this match. It seems that if you’re willing to start a 17-year-old keeper on the road, you’d be willing to do it at home. Perhaps it was just a wake-up call to MacMath. It does seem too early to throw in the towel on the season (which starting a 17-year-old in goal would seemingly imply).

In the end, Charlotte will be facing either a journeyman keeper or a baby in goal. Charlotte doesn’t often show the ability to test keepers early and often, but this is a game to do it in.

Conclusion

Real Salt Lake is more of a mess than Charlotte right now. Injuries are certainly a part of this club’s struggles in the early season, but so is the talent level. In key positions, they are young or lacking talent. I can’t lie, though, I’d love to see them start a 17-year-old in goal and a 15-year-old up top. It won’t happen against us, but maybe this year? Fingers crossed.

Road games are not Charlotte’s forte, but if there was ever a time to get a road win, it’s this game. In fact, this is as close to a must-win game as you can have with a Western Conference team in April. A draw would be fine (it is important to remember that playoff teams don’t so much win on the road as a draw), but a win would really make our position in the standings feel better.

It looks like Ashley Westwood is set to miss another game. Honestly, I’d really like Lattanzio to run out the exact same lineup he did against Toronto, with the exception of adding Świderski back in for Nuno or Bender. Ben had a great game, so I think it would be unlucky for him to not play.

With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brand and Karol back in the lineup in place of Bender and Nuno. I’m not sure that’s fair to either Bender or Nuno, but I’ve been very wrong this entire year about CL’s selections. Maybe I’ll probably be wrong again.

Nuno missed some chances last game, but I’m not convinced he had a bad game. He still had to get into those positions to make those changes. Plus, we can’t clamor for him to start and then reverse that after one start. He needs consistent minutes.

Up front, the trio of Vargas-Copetti-Jóźwiak should start again; I can’t see a reason for them not to. It’s a similar situation in goal and with the backline. Our best 4 defenders right now are Afful-Tuiloma-Malanda-Lindsey. It should continue.

Prediction: Charlotte 3 – RSL 1

Data Notes: All heatmaps come fromSofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come fromFBref.com. All formation graphics are fromMLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us,Wyscout.com, andMLSsoccer.com.

The 2023 Toronto Preview, Pt. 1

It’s a big April ahead. I alluded to this yesterday in my post about our passing networks, but April provides a chance for Charlotte to earn a lot of points and erase the bad start to this season. A full 15 points from the 5 games is unrealistic, but something between 8-11 points would be really helpful to the cause.

With Karol having a pretty successful international break, I’m hoping that he comes back ready to go on a scoring run. That goal epitomized the player: good positioning and bad first touch, but ultimately a good finish.

Westwood’s injury is still something that continues to cloud our midfield selection. Now, Bronico will be serving a one game suspension for this challenge in the game against RBNY last weekend.

feels like this should have been a red card pic.twitter.com/qcmIaYMPow
— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) March 26, 2023

We can’t really have too many complaints as fans. In reality, we’re lucky we’ll only miss him for 1 game, as this easily could’ve been a red over the weekend plus a 3 match ban.

While I’m a huge fan of Brandt, I would like to see a midfield of Derrick Jones, Karol, and Westy. It’s something we haven’t seen yet. This would’ve been the perfect weekend to do so, but considering that I still haven’t seen word on his status, it seems unlikely to happen.

Lineups

Toronto vs. Columbus, 3/11

Toronto vs. Miami, 3/18

Toronto at San Jose, 3/25

Unlike Charlotte, Toronto has been pretty consistent in its lineup and personnel. They’ve run a 4-2-3-1 over the past 3 games, and most of their personnel have remained the same. They are missing Lorenzo Insigne, who is one of the more talent players to ever come to MLS, but retain the services of his compatriot, Fernando Bernardeschi. Their backline and midfield has remained largely unchanged game to game. The biggest changes have been the result of injury and international duty.

Injury

Last week Toronto dealt with a myriad of injuries and unavailability due to the international break. According to the MLS Availability Report, the following players were unavailable for them:

Cristian Gutierrez (OUT, illness)
Adama Diomande (OUT, lower body)
Lorenzo Insigne (OUT, lower body)
Ayo Akinola (OUT, international duty)
Mark-Anthony Kaye (OUT, international duty)
Richie Laryea (OUT, international duty)
Jonathan Osorio (OUT, international duty)
Tomas Romero (OUT, international duty)

Some of these players have not featured at all or haven’t featured extensively for Toronto on the year (e.g., Romero, Akinola), but others were huge misses (e.g., Kaye, Osorio, Laryea). Lucky for Charlotte, those players should be back for our game!

Where Charlotte does have luck is in the absence of Lorenzo Insigne. He’s only played 33 minutes on the year and reinjured himself on March 14. As a result, he’s set to miss our game. Toronto still has plenty of attacking talent, but Insigne is a true game-changer. Having to play Toronto without him is a blessing.

Attack

Without Insigne, Toronto’s attack will be centered on Bernardeschi. The Italian had a much better debut than I was expecting. He always had talent, but after an 11-goal (3 PKs), 4-assist season in 2016-17 with Fiorentina which got him a move to Juventus, his production stagnated. Over 5 seasons and 134 appearances for Juve, he only managed 8 goals and 12 assists, with his high being in his first season (4 goals and 3 assists).

Of course, MLS is not Serie A and his talent has shown here. Over 13 starts last year, Bernardeschi scored 8 goals and got 2 assists. Here’s the big asterisk though: of those 8 goals, FIVE were PKs. First off, did Charlotte even have 5 PKs awarded all of last year? Second, that kind of production from the spot is usually not a good indicator of future goalscoring output. He does already have another PK scored this year, so maybe it is. The larger point is that from open play, Bernardeschi continues to struggle to find the back of the net consistently (I say this as if any of our wingers last year had 3 goals…). So far in his 5 starts this year, he has 2 goals (1 PK) and 1 assist.

Bernardeschi heatmap 2023

He favors the right side, but as we see from their formations, he can play as a 10. He’s a creative player as his 4.21 shot-creating actions/90, 7.40 take-on attempts/90, and 2.60 successful take-ons/90 show.

For reference, Vargas currently leads Charlotte in SCAs/90 at 5.38 (I’m not including Bender who is at 6.43 because he only has 0.2 90s played), but also only has 2.8 90s versus Bernardeschi’s 5.0. As far as take-ons go, again our leader is a player who has too little time for me to include (Mello at 10.0/90 on only 0.3 90s). Of the players who have played at least 2 games, Karol leads the team at 3.85 take-ons attempted/90. Our leader for successful take-ons (with 2 90s set as the minimum) is Vargas at 2.50/90. Side note: Vargas has been hugely efficient with his take-ons, sporting a 70% success rate.

While Bernardeschi might be the big name, Jonathan Osorio is one of my favorite MLS players. He was a free agent this winter and I held out a ridiculous hope that Charlotte might tempt him away from Canada. In reality, it looks like he was looking for opportunities in Europe, none of which he fancied. Therefore, he returned to Toronto where he’s spent his entire career.

Osorio has made 263 career appearances for Toronto, including 211 starts. He has 43 goals and 33 assists in his career. His best year from a goal production standpoint was 2018 when he had 10 goals and 6 assists. Last year wasn’t too far behind that, though, as he got 9 goals and 4 assists. With the attention players like Insigne (when healthy) and Bernardeschi demand, it really opens things up for him.

For me, 5 games are still too few to take percentiles seriously. Therefore, these are Osorio’s from last year. He was good.

Osorio passing percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs

Osorio possession percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs

Osorio shootingpercentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs

That’s a lot of green! Now, there are some caveats to this.

First, and most obvious, these percentiles compare him to midfielders, not attackers. I would love to see his numbers versus CAMs/wingers.

Secondly, many might consider him a midfielder, not an attacker. Looking at the way he has been deployed by Toronto this year–as a left-sided wide midfielder–is why I have decided to include him here. Further his goal return from last year is more in line with an attacker than a standard CM. As a result, if we were to compare him to more attack-minded midfielders, these numbers might not look as good, but the more important point is they give a clear view of how good a passer, carrier, and shooter he is.

Up top, Deandre Kerr has been their striker for the past 3 games. The 20-year-old has 1 goal so far. Last year he got into 26 games (11 starts) as a 19-year-0ld, scoring 3 times.

Kerr’s positioning seems to have changed from last year. His heatmap (below) shows a right-sided wide player. Indeed, his percentiles are comparing him to midfielders (which is actually rather annoying since it appears he should be compared to wingers/CAMs).

Kerr heatmap 2022

Kerr’s passing is not great. He was at 74.9% last year and is down to 62.1% this year. He’s only attempting 13.2 passes per 90 and only completing 8.18 passes/90, both down from last year. This decrease in the amount of his passing isn’t necessarily surprising due to his change in position.

Adama Diomande was the striker for the first two games. He’s new to Toronto, joining from the amazingly named club, Odd, in the Norwegian Eliteserien. While he’s new to Toronto, Diomande isn’t new to MLS. He spent 3 years (2018-2020) with LAFC, where he made 44 appearances (29 starts), and scored 20 goals with 9 assists. He only made 1 appearance for LAFC in 2020 before moving to the Chinese Super League in 2021. He only made 4 appearances there and moved to Odd in 2022, where he only made 2 appearances. Suffice it to say, the 33-year-old has not been playing much football over the past few years.

Diomande’s best scoring output came all the way back in 2015, when he was 24 and playing for Stabæk in the Norwegian Tippeligaen. He scored 17 goals (2 PKs) in 21 starts that year. He had 12 goals and 4 assists in his first year with LAFC, but aside from those 2 seasons, he’s never had double-digit goal years. While he did miss time due to international duty, it seems to me that he’s a depth piece, and the move to Kerr as striker is where Toronto will be heading this year.

Another older attacker to join Toronto this year is Victor Vázquez (though he rejoins this club, having spent 2 years there previously). Vázquez spent the last 2 years with LA Galaxy, making 54 appearances (36 starts), scoring 5 times, and getting 8 assists. At 36, he’s at the end of his career. He began his career with Barcelona and even made 1 appearance for the club as a 20-year-old back in 2007-2008. He spent most of his career with Club Brugge in the Belgian Pro League, before joining Cruz Azul in Liga MX in 2015-16.

He originally joined Toronto in 2017 as a 30-year-old and spent 2 very productive years there. In 2017 and 2018, he made 52 appearances and 47 starts, scoring 16 times (5 PKs) and getting 14 assists. This includes his first year when he had 10 assists.

Vázquez will pop up all over the pitch but does tend to favor the left side. Historically, he seems to play in similar areas to Osorio, which makes sense when you see that he was the one who took Osorio’s place last match.

Kosi Thompson, Ayo Akinola, and Hugo-Hilaire Mbongue Mbongue make up a triplet of attackers who have featured for Toronto this year but have not started.

Thompson has made 2 appearances for a total of 19 minutes. He did play in 24 games last year, getting 1 goal and 1 assist, as a 19-year-old. He has yet to record a goal or assist this year.

Akinola has made 3 appearances this year, failing to get a goal or assist. He made 26 appearances for Toronto last year, scoring twice. For his career, he has made 67 appearances for Toronto over 6 seasons (he debuted as an 18-year-old for them), scoring 15 goals. He had 9 goals in 15 appearances in 2020 but has never replicated that production again.

Mbongue Mbongue is yet another young attacker at 18. He made 1 appearance for Toronto last year but has already made 3 this year. It’s only been a total of 58 minutes, but Toronto clearly sees potential in him.

Alonso Coello is yet another young attacker (this time a CAM) for Toronto. He’s not even listed on their official roster; only on TFC II’s roster. With that said, he did make his MLS debut last week as their 10. With TFC II last year, he made 24 starts, had 1 goal, and 1 assist. I know little else about him.

The final piece to the attack is Brandon Servania. The just-turned-24-year-old is in his first season with Toronto, having spent the majority of his career with FC Dallas. He had a short loan spell at St. Pölten in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2020-21. He made 10 appearances (7 starts) for the Austrian club but failed to record a goal or assist.

With Dallas, Servania debuted at 19 and would go on to make 67 appearances (43 starts) for the club. He scored 2 goals and had an assist his first year, then went 2 full seasons without getting on the scoresheet. Last year he made 23 appearances (15 starts), scoring twice and getting 3 assists. He’s made 5 appearances with 4 starts so far this year.

Servania’s position is a bit nebulous. He’s started as part of Toronto’s double pivot, as a 10, and as a wide right-sided midfielder over the past 3 games. With Dallas last year, it was a bit more defined.

Servania heatmap 2022

To me, it seems like Servania is primarily a right-sided midfielder, but obviously, he has some positional flexibility which is never a bad thing.

Midfield

The midfield is comprised of that double pivot for TFC and it’s really just two players: Michael Bradley and Mark-Anthony Kaye. Kaye came over midyear from Colorado to help reinforce their midfield, while Bradley enters his 10th season in Toronto. At 35, you have to think the end is near for Bradley, but he keeps churning away. Last year he made 34 starts, scored 3 goals, and got 3 assists.

Kaye, meanwhile, has bounced around a bit over the past couple of years. He spent 4 seasons with LAFC, making 77 appearances, before moving to Colorado in the middle of 2021. He would only spend a year there (parts of 2 seasons), before joining Toronto. Wherever he’s gone in MLS, he’s been a starter. He made 71 starts (77 appearances) for LAFC, 29 for Colorado (32 appearances), and has made 11 already for Toronto (12 appearances).

He’s off to a tremendous goalscoring pace to begin this year, having scored twice already. His previous career high in MLS was 4 goals (and 8 assists!) back in 2019 for LAFC. Perhaps this pace is sustainable, but more than likely it’s not. He consistently chips in goals, but he’s not a scoring threat, per se.

Bradley heatmap 2023

Kaye heatmap 2023

Bradley is a stereotypical CDM now, while Kaye plays a similar role, though he stays on the left much more than Bradley. Bradley is still a pretty good passer, while Kaye is more of a recycler of the ball. In this team, their primary responsibility is obviously to get the ball and keep it so that players like Osorio, Bernardeschi, and Insigne can do damage.

Elsewhere on the roster, there are midfielders Markus Cimermancic, Themi Antonoglou, and Jordan Perruzza. None have made an appearance so far this year.

With the international break over, chances are we are going to see Bradley and Kaye as the midfield partnership (although they could go with someone other than Kaye if he needs some rest).

Defense

If there was one major issue for Toronto last year, it was defense and goalkeeping. Toronto scored 49 goals last year, good for 6th in the East. The problem was they allowed 66 goals, 2nd worst in the East. While not a defender, Kaye was one part of trying to fix that issue. The other was going out and getting almost an entirely new backline (and goalkeeper).

At center back, Toronto brought in MLS veteran Matt Hedges, who had spent his entire 11-year career in Dallas, making over 300 appearances and starts for that club. They also brought in Sigurd Rosted from the Danish Superliga to pair with Hedges. He joined from Brøndby, where he made 84 appearances (69 starts) over 4 seasons. Finally, they brought in left-back Raoul Petretta from Kasimpasa in the Turkish Super Lig. Petretta only spent 1 season in Turkey, making 9 appearances. He spent the previous 6 seasons with Basel in the Swiss Super League, making 109 appearances (99 starts) for that club. These 3 players are aged 32 (Hedges), 28 (Rosted), and 26 (Petretta) and bring a ton of high-level experience to this club and backline.

Hedges is a good reader of the game, as he was in the 76th percentile for blocks, 89th percentile for shots blocked, and 91st percentile for clearances last year. Rosted’s percentiles are versus the “Next 8 Competitions” (i.e., MLS, Brazilian Série A, Dutch Eredivisie, English Championship, Mexican Liga MX, Portugues Primeira Liga, Copa Libertadores, and UEFA Europa Conference League) and, defensively, they are good. He’s in the 89th percentile for tackles, 95th percentile for dribblers tackled, 96th percentile for passes blocks, and 91st percentile for interceptions. The upgrade at this position (CB) has been swift and real.

The only holdover from last year in this backline is Richie Laryea. Laryea has been with Toronto since 2019, making 81 total appearances for the club. He did spend part of 2021-22 on loan at Nottingham Forest (then in the English Championship) but only made 5 appearances and 1 start for Forest. He made 10 starts last year for Toronto, getting 3 assists.

Layrea is a good passer. He’s in the 99th percentile for pass completion % (overall), as well as the 99th percentile for pass completion percentage at short, medium, and long-distance passing. N0w, it should be noted that he was only in the 20th percentile for medium passes attempted and only the 5th percentile for long passes attempted, so it’s not something that he does a ton. He’s in the 79th percentile for progressive passes, as well as the 88th percentile for key passes.

Layrea heatmap 2023

That heatmap shows a more traditional fullback than what Charlotte employs. With Bernardeschi liking to cut in off that right-wing, it makes sense to have Layrea fill that space wide.

Elsewhere in defense, you’ll find Jahkeel Marshall-Ruty. He’s listed as a forward on Toronto’s roster, but FBref has him playing as a right-back in his only appearance this year. He got into 17 games last year (5 starts) and is only 18.

Kobe Franklin is another young defender at 19. He’s appeared in 2 games this year. He only had 1 appearance last year for 14 minutes.

Finally, there is a trio of players who appeared in a number of games last year for Toronto but have yet to do so this year. Shane O’Neill is a center-back who got 21 starts and 26 total appearances last year. Lukas MacNaughton appeared in 25 games last year (20 starts). Jordan Perruzza appeared in 13 games last year (just 1 start). None have gotten off the bench this year.

Goalkeeping

Goalie play was a distinct problem area for Toronto last year. Like the defense, they have basically scrapped their options from last year and started over. Gone are Alex Bono and Quentin Westberg to DC United and Atlanta United, respectively. Bono made 24 starts for them in 2021 and 2022, while Westberg made 10 in each of those same years. Bono had a 1.83 GA90 in 2021 and a 1.75 GA90 in 2022; Westberg had a horrendous 2.20 GA90 in 2021 and a 2.40 GA90 in 2022. To say a change was needed is an understatement. Neither has appeared in a game for their new clubs, which, when seeing those stats, isn’t a surprise.

Greg Ranjitsingh is the only holder, but he hasn’t appeared in an MLS game since 2020 with Minnesota. For his career, he’s only made 5 starts at the MLS level. It should be said that his record in the USL with Louisville City is quite impressive: 78 appearances and a 1.02 goal allowed/90. He’s either never proven himself capable at the MLS level or has never been given a shot.

Tomas Romero is another goalkeeper who has barely played in MLS. He’s younger than Ranjitsingh at only 22. He does have more games at this level, though, they all came back in 2021 when he made 18 starts for LAFC. It didn’t go particularly well, as he had a 1.56 GA90.

Neither Ranjitsingh nor Romero is going to be counted upon this year for Toronto. Instead, Toronto brought in Sean Johnson to shore up their goalkeeping. The USMNT goalkeeper is now in his 14th season in MLS, having played 7 years in Chicago and the last 6 for NYCFC.

Johnson is a good MLS keeper, though I’d say he tends to be in the above-average category, more than the elite. For his career, he has a 1.30 GA90 with a low of 1.07 GA90 in 2021 and a high of 1.68 GA90 way back in 2016 (his final year with Chicago). Over the past 6 years with NYCFC, he’s been solid and ended his time in New York with a 1.19 GA90.

His PSxG+/- backs up that he’s a pretty good keeper. Last year was his worst in some time, as he posted a -0.6 PSxG+/-, but in the previous 4 seasons, he was solidly in the plus. He was at +1.9 in 2018, +3.9 in 2019, +7.0 (!) in 2020, and +2.1 in 2021. So far this year he’s at +0.1.

These numbers are not outrageously good (except for 2020). He’s not Andre Blake or any goalkeeper that NE seems to find, but he’s really solid. He’s an especially solid option when you compare him to Bono’s above GA90 numbers and Bono’s PSxG+/- numbers (career -2.7, including -2.9 in 2021 and only +0.1 in 2022). While every team would prefer to have a Blake or Petrović, those are few and far between. Compared with what Toronto had between the sticks, Johnson is going to seem like a godsend.

Conclusion

Toronto’s start to this season has surprised me. It hasn’t been terrible, but I expected them to make the jump into the upper tier of the league. I really liked the offseason moves they made and, with their superstar attacking Italians, I thought they’d be really dangerous. Insigne’s injury is certainly part of their slow start but probably isn’t the entire reason. As with Charlotte, though, there is still plenty of time for them to turn it around.

Importantly, their defense seems to be getting better. This isn’t surprising considering 3 of the 4 starters are new to the team and each other. They gave up 3 goals in their opening-day loss to DC United, then gave up 1 goal in their next 2 games (both draws against Atlanta United and Columbus). Over the past 2 games, though, they’ve not conceded (a 2-0 win over Inter Miami and a 0-0 draw over San Jose). Considering the level of the opponent, to give up so few goals over the last 4 games is impressive. Charlotte doesn’t know how to score, so this could be a problem.

In attack, it’s a good thing we miss Insigne, but it would’ve been a better thing if we could’ve played them last week when they were missing Insigne, Laryea, Kaye, and Osorio (amongst others). Such is life.

Based on how little news we’ve heard, I don’t expect Westwood to play. This means another week of guessing who mans the midfield, especially with the forced exclusion of Bronico. If I had to guess, we’ll see a midfield of Karol, Nuno, and DJ. Of course, I didn’t see Lindsey starting 2 weeks in a row at RB or Byrne as a CB, so who knows?

Vargas at LW seems a foregone conclusion at this point, though I do wonder if Jóźwiak on the left and Vargas on the right don’t give us the best option now in terms of talent and floor. Mello was electric when he came on and I wouldn’t be opposed to him starting at all, but it just seems unlikely. Further, for a young player learning a new league and coming back from a wasted year due to injury, being a bench player for a bit is probably the prudent choice. I love me some Gaines, but this season has not been good for him so far. A sub role seems appropriate right now with the hope that he’ll get going.

For all the strife around Enzo and his supposed antics, the man has been off to a good start for us. His 2 goals obviously lead the team, but so does his 1.3 xG. Karol isn’t too far behind with 0.8 xG. I’m not sure we could’ve asked for more, especially with how poorly some of our other players have been.

I think his “antics” have been overblown, but more worryingly is that I think he’s being reffed differently already. Against RBNY, he had a foul on Tolkin for which he was given a yellow. I don’t remember other fouls from him before the yellow, so I thought it was not only a soft one, but undeserved. I especially felt that way once a RBNY play did the same thing in the same place on the pitch and didn’t get a yellow.

Some will argue that this difference in reffing might be due to his own behavior. Miss me with that. A referee’s job is to be impartial and call the game fairly. If he/she is so thin-skinned as to let complaining drive his/her decisions, they don’t need to be a ref.

In defense, I do hope that Tuiloma is healthy enough to go. I didn’t think Byrne was that bad outside of the poor trap that led to the goal. To me, he didn’t lose us the game; our inability to do anything with the over 70% possession we had did. At the same time, I do need an experienced professional to handle a backpass better. The bottom line is if he does have to start again at RCB, I’m not overly concerned. It does move Malanda out of the better fit of RCB to LCB, but that kid is so good he can handle it.

Lindsey has not given me a reason to remove him from the lineup. He should continue to start. Meanwhile, Afful has looked really solid in the last 2 games. I’m still skeptical he can keep this up for an extended period of time, but considering the team doesn’t appear to have any intention of getting a new left-back, he may continue to be our best option (so long as we’re inverting that LB). This week will be a real challenge for him, though, as Bernardeschi presents a pace and technical problem.

Finally, George Marks keeps showing out. Marks really has been something else in goal. He’s looked assured on the ball and has had good ideas with his distribution. He hasn’t necessarily executed those ideas well, but when he tries a pass he’s doing so in a way that doesn’t immediately cause danger if it doesn’t come off. When it comes to actually making saves, yeah, he’s doing that too. He’s at 1.00 GA90 in his 2 starts and is at +1.0 PSxG+/- in those starts. That’s really good!

Now, there is the warning that Kahlina also started the year off well with PSxG+/- before ending in the negative, but Marks has clearly played better than Pablo. If this continues, I do think there is a real discussion to be had about whether Kahlina should automatically get the job back.

I wouldn’t say that I’m confident in us going to Toronto and getting a win; last year kind of scarred me. However, if there were ever a time, it might be now. I honestly believe Insigne is that big of a miss for them. Toronto is also near the bottom of the league when it comes to possession at 47.2%. That should play into our desire to keep the ball, though their transition game is more akin to St. Louis and Atlanta than RBNY, I think. I’m going naively optimistic!

Prediction: Toronto 1 – Charlotte 2

Data Notes: All heatmaps come from Sofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come from FBref.com. All formation graphics are from MLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us, Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com.

Pass It On

It’s fair to say that the start of this season hasn’t been great. It also isn’t dissimilar to last year. Under MAR, Charlotte began its inaugural campaign with 3 losses but followed that up with 3 wins in the next four matches (the lone non-win being a loss away at Philadelphia).

It’s hard to remember now, but Charlotte played some pretty good football at the end of the year in 2022 as they made their push to sneak into the playoffs. Ultimately, that push came up short, but it gave me a lot of hope for this year. It seemed a template was set. This year, though, there has been a chopping and changing of personnel and the results have been…erratic.

One of the issues that we’ve discussed here–and has been discussed ad nauseam amongst the entire fanbase–is the formation and personnel that are playing or should be played. What seems more important to me, though, is how that personnel and formations are actually being executed in game.

One of the ways we can view this is by looking at passing networks. They’re what the name implies: visuals that illustrate the passing connections between players. MLS is kind enough to have them for every game. Indeed, they’re much more interactive on MLS’s website (for instance, if you hover your cursor over a line, it will tell you the number of passes between players, in both directions). While screenshotting these networks and putting them here takes away some of the interactivity, it doesn’t take away the usefulness.

A few things to consider:

There is some cutoff for passing networks. What I mean by that is, if you take Atlanta’s passing map from our game this year (found here), you will see that Miguel Berry (#19) has literally no lines connecting him to any of his teammates. That would seem to imply that he never completed a pass. That’s inaccurate. You can go to FBref (here) and see that he actually completed 6/6 passes. That’s obviously not a ton of passes for a player who played 58 minutes, but it’s not zero. Just because there is no line, doesn’t mean there wasn’t any connection; just that the connection was too small to be relevant.
Thicker lines indicate more passes between players.
Player positions on these maps are relative and an average of where they were. These networks should not be viewed as a measure of the areas a player took positions up in. Look to heatmaps for a better visual of that.
Some passing networks will have larger dots or smaller dots for players to denote how many passes that player attempted. MLS does not do that.

With those caveats out of the way, let’s actually look at some networks for Charlotte, both from this year and last*.

*Note: I have taken the last 4 games of Charlotte’s 2022 season, but replaced the home NYCFC game for Columbus. That Columbus game was technically the 2nd to last game for us, but due to it being split over multiple days for the weather delay, and the vast change in personnel from when it was started to when it ended, I thought it better to ignore.

2022 Passing Networks: NYCF, CHI, PHI, and RBNY

2023 Passing Networks: NE, STL, ATL, ORL, and RBNY

Striker Isolation

So that’s a lot of visuals, where do we start?

When viewing the networks from last year’s games, one of the first things that jumped out to me is the relative proximity of Karol Świderski and Daniel Ríos. The home game against Philadelphia has them the furthest apart from each other, but they are still relatively close. In the NYCFC and Chicago games, they are practically on top of one another. Interestingly, Karol is ahead of Ríos in that Chicago game, too. Then, in the RBNY game, they’re not quite as close, but still pretty darn close.

What’s also interesting is that even though each is taking up similar positions and playing close to one another, they are not passing to one another. In the NYCFC network, Karol is literally on top of Ríos, so it’s actually impossible to know if there was a connection, but I don’t believe there was. There is no line for the Chicago or Philadelphia game, and the small line against RBNY represents 6 total passes between them (3 each way). Again, this doesn’t mean that against Chicago or Philadelphia they never passed to each other, just that it happened so little there is no line to represent it. But the proximity in which they played clearly benefited the team. Charlotte scored 8 total goals over these games (RBNY was a shutout, but the team had nothing to play for and I think it showed).

Now, compare this proximity between striker and CAM with the maps from this year. Immediately you notice just how isolated Enzo Copetti is.

Against New England to begin the season, the positioning does look similar to the end of last year. However, against St. Louis, with Karol switched out wide and Andre Shinyashiki replacing him in that forward 8/central attacking midfielder role, Enzo is by himself up top. Against Atlanta, Enzo has Jóźwiak for company, but worryingly–and absurdly–there is no connection between anyone in our midfield and Enzo. Orlando, which has probably been the best display of attack we’ve had all season (that’s not saying a lot), has him playing right next to Ashley Westwood. Again, the two dots are so close it’s impossible to tell if there is a connection. Finally, against RBNY, Copetti is again a man by himself. Clearly, one of the early season issues for this team is the isolation of our striker up top.

Midfield Cluster and Lack of Width

Now, Enzo might find himself in acres of space with nary a friendly face to be seen, but our midfielders certainly don’t have that problem. At least this is true in the 2 worst games we’ve played all year: St. Louis and Atlanta. Look at the ridiculousness in those games. Against St. Louis, Andre is almost covering Westwood, while Derrick Jones is slightly behind. Against Atlanta, you literally can’t see Westwood’s number (it is him), as DJ’s is completely covering it. Andre, meanwhile, is overlapping DJ.

Those two games highlight another issue we’ve been having, though one that I believe CL is working to solve: the narrowness of this team. St. Louis probably represents the extreme of this. Look at that game’s network compared with Orlando’s, which comes 2 weeks later. The width that is being held by players like Gaines and Byrne on the right in Orlando and Vargas on the left is a sight for sore eyes.

When you look back at the 2022 networks, you see that there is always at least one player who is holding width with the exception of the game against Philadelphia: Gaines against NYCFC; Byrne (and to a lesser degree Afful) against Chicago; and Jóźwiak and Byrne against RBNY. Now, I will admit that against Philadelphia, we are playing a bit narrower than in the other games, so there are times when you can set a team up that way and find success. For this team, though, that is an exception.

Pinned Back

Coupled with the above width and midfield issue is the issue of how deeply our team is being pinned back, especially our wingers. New England to open at least has Gaines and Świderski trying to join Copetti, but against St. Louis, no one but Enzo is beyond the halfway line. Against Atlanta, it’s a bit better, but still not great. Again, Orlando is probably our best attacking performance of the season and we finally see players taking positions up the pitch. We revert against RBNY, though. Gaines, Nuno, and Byrne are all clustered together holding the width, but only Nuno and Gaines are taking up positions beyond the halfway line, and barely at that. Again, compare this to those 2022 maps where we consistently have 4 players in the opponent’s half.

For a team that wants to hit on the counter, maybe these kinds of networks would be fine, especially when it comes to player positions. That is not Christian Lattanzio’s Charlotte. Here are our possession percentages by game:

54.40% against NE
61.00% against STL
55.80% against ATL
44.60% against ORL
74.00% against RBNY

Some of those possession numbers are absolutely wild, yet we are literally doing nothing with them. This team has scored 4 goals on the year, and one of those was an own goal.

Next Steps

So what do we do about this? Well, I’m not an expert on tactics. I point you to Euan’s excellent piece on our tactics in the wake of the Atlanta loss for someone who knows that subject much better than I do. What I will say is that I view this post as a companion piece to that one. We’re looking at the same issues through different lenses, so many of my conclusions align with what Euan said in that piece, though I don’t pretend to speak for him (please read his piece for his thoughts!).

First, Świderski needs to be back in as the attacking 8 or CAM (whatever you want to call it due to whatever formation you want to say we’re playing). Enzo Copetti has been far too isolated and needs someone else to help occupy defenders. Our best football under Lattanzio has come with him as a pseudo-striker who can drop deep, link play, and then make forward runs.

I’m a big, BIG fan of Nuno Santos and I want to see more of him, but also, maybe that game against Orlando shows us why he hasn’t been picked? I’ll caveat what I’m going to say next with “small sample size,” but if those are the areas that Nuno likes to drift into, then it makes more sense as to why he hasn’t been selected.

Second, the emphasis on width that we’ve seen in the last two games has to continue. It was apparent to me within the first 10 minutes of the Red Bulls’ game that Vargas and Gaines had been told to stay wide. It’s something that we did last year with at least one of our wingers and should continue. Vargas, I think, is the key here. If he’s on the left, then you need your right winger to stay touchline tight, regardless of if it’s Gaines, Jóźwiak, or Mello. If Vargas is on the right, I’d probably have him fill that role, while allowing Jóźwiak on the left to cut in.

As Justin likes to say, all our wingers are better on the left. I’ll add to that that we have a lot of wingers who prefer to cut inside. For some teams, you could allow both wings to cut in and keep width with overlapping FBs. As I’ve talked nonstop about, CL doesn’t want that; he wants his FBs inverted.

While I believe that Vargas could provide width effectively, it’s probably not the best use of his full talents. We’ve seen time and again how good his right foot is. Allowing him the opportunity to cut in onto it from the left makes a ton of sense. If we could combine his right foot with Świderski’s left, we’d have a player who would’ve been way too good to ever play for us!

Third, improve the spacing in the midfield. With more width provided by at least 1 winger, we need to see Westwood or Bronico further from Jones and whatever left-back is tucking into the midfield (I’m assuming for the time being that will be Afful). Orlando’s passing network is probably the best version of this so far. It should be noted that, of course, there are times when midfielders can be close (see: Bronico and Jones against Philadelphia last year), but what we’ve seen in the St. Louis and Atlanta games can’t happen again.

These networks are just one way to look at this team, but they confirm issues that we are seeing in-game, namely, that our possession is toothless and our passing is largely harmless. Euan asked the question of why Lattanzio changed his tactics from what seemed to be working so well at the end of last year. Like him, I can’t fully answer that. I do think we’re starting to see a shift back to some of those end-of-year principles, though. Hopefully, Saturday sees a continuation of the improvement the team has shown over the past couple of games (at least compared to the first few).

April offers a chance to erase the poor start. Toronto has only 1 win on the season (though 3 draws) and is missing Lorenzo Insigne. Real Salt Lake has 1 win and 3 losses, with a -6 GD (we only have -5!). Colorado sits bottom of the West with 2 draws and 3 losses. Columbus…well, they just thrashed Atlanta and will probably have Cucho back by our game (lucky us!), so it’ll be tough. DC ends the month. They have just 1 win and only beat us in the standings due to a slightly better GD.

Something like 2 wins, 2 draws, and a loss in those games would feel pretty good. Something like 3 wins and 2 draws would really change some feelings around here. Fortunately, or possibly unfortunately, by the end of next month, we’ll probably have a pretty good idea of if this team has a realistic shot to make the playoffs. Let’s hope it’s a good April.

The 2023 RBNY Preview, Pt. 1

We at The Crown Cast were lucky enough to be present for Coach Lattanzio’s post-game speech to the players. Live video:

We needed that win. I’m honestly not too concerned about the manner in which we got it. Would I have preferred a 4-0 defeat where we held 70% possession? Sure. But the most important thing was to get points. I would’ve taken a draw; a win was icing.

Ashley Westwood’s injury does dampen the feeling a bit. I know he has underwhelmed a few people, but I’m not sure it’s a coincidence that with him on the pitch, the 1st half was quite enjoyable (at least from an offensive perspective). Without him…that 2nd half was not good. Now, perhaps even with Westy, Orlando comes out and pushes the way they did in the 2nd half. Even with him in the 1st half, our defensive deficiencies were showing. My gut just tells me that his absence played a big role.

The other elephant in the room is Bill Tuiloma. The defender had another error that led directly to a goal. I will be the first to admit that I did not see him much when he was with the Timbers. Perhaps this is part of his game; perhaps it’s just two really unfortunate, out-of-character moments to begin his Charlotte career. What I will say is that I’m not out yet.

I was never a fan of Yordy Reyna because he was a moments player. There were times in games he would do something spectacular. A curling shot. An impressive piece of skill on the ball. A wonderful, pinpoint cross. But most of the time, he was invisible for the team. His moments were wonderful; his process was terrible.

Tuiloma is the inverse of Reyna. His moments have been awful, but the process has been great. On both the goal over the weekend and his OG, he’s in the correct place and doing what you want from a defender. In the most important moment, though, he is not executing properly. Listen, I get it, a defender needs to come up big in big moments. But so does a striker, a midfielder, or a goalie. They all do. MLS is an imperfect league with imperfect players. What I’ve seen from Tuiloma shows a player who knows where to be and knows how to defend situations.

I’ve also seen a player who has not executed well in those big situations. This obviously has to change, but I’m inclined to give him more time. I’m especially inclined to do this since our team has been sliced apart so easily in the last few weeks. That whole backline is seeing way more dangerous situations than a good team should be allowing. Part of the blame is on them, but a large part is also on CL, the midfield, and the attack. I’m a process-over-results person. Results can often be flukey. Good processes will lead to good results consistently. I’ll trust Tuiloma’s process for now.

Team	Possession	Points (Standings)	WhoScored Team Rating (SofaScore Team Rating)
Charlotte FC	53.5%	3 (14th in the East)	6.51 (6.76)
RB New York	47.8%	5 (10th in the East)	6.55 (6.75)

Team	Shots per game	Shots on target per game	Goals for (xG)	Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC	10.25	3.50	3 (3.7)	8 (5.8)
RB New York	13.00	3.75	3 (4.5)	3 (3.1)

Oof. Charlotte’s GD is abysmal. RBNY’s possession is up 5% from where it was last year. Obviously too early to read anything into that, but they’re more middle-of-the-road in terms of possession than they were last year.

Lineup

Like Charlotte, RBNY actually picked up its first win last week against Columbus. Unlike Charlotte, they had already drawn two games. They lost their first game of the season against Orlando, so by the transitive property I don’t know why we’re even playing this game (CLT beat Orlando who beat RBNY, therefore CLT beat RBNY).

RBNY has run out a 4-4-2 in their first two games, a 4-2-3-1 in their third, and a 3-4-2-1 in their fourth. What they will play this week, I don’t know!

With that said, when looking over these lineups there are some constants when it comes to personnel. Sean Nealis (CB), John Tolkien (FB/WB), Frankie Amaya (MF), Cristian Cásseres Jr. (MF/FW), Carlos Coronel (GK), Luquinhas (MF/FW), and Andrés Reyes (CB) have all started each of their first 4 games. Cameron Harper (FB/WB) and Lewis Morgan (MF/FW) have started 3 games each. Elias Manoel (FW/MF), Cory Burke (ST), Tom Barlow (ST), and Omir Fernandez (MF/FW) have each appeared in all 4 games with varying levels of starts.

Injury Report

Last week’s MLS Availability Report had 3 players on it for RBNY: Dru Yearwood (OUT, hamstring), Serge Ngoma (OUT, hamstring), and Lewis Morgan (Questionable, hip). Morgan did not even make the bench, which might explain their switch to a back 3. He’s a good player for them, so if he misses our game, it would be good news from a Charlotte perspective. As of Tuesday, Yearwood is back in training but Morgan isn’t.

At #RBNY training.
Dru Yearwood is back on the pitch with the team. Lewis Morgan not practicing today.
— Mark Fishkin (@MarkFishkin) March 21, 2023

As of Thursday, RBNY’s manager, Struber, reiterated that Morgan is still questionable. Additionally, he (fairly) questioned whether Charlotte’s turf would be a good time to bring him back. Further news is that Dante Vanzeir (much more on him later) is questionable with an illness.

#RBNY Player Availability Report for Charlotte Away pic.twitter.com/asSOCA9rQe
— Mark Fishkin (@MarkFishkin) March 23, 2023

Editor’s note: the Attack portion of this preview was written before Josh realized that Burke and Cásseres will be on international duty. Good news for Charlotte. The information has been kept in for each. View it as what RBNY will be missing. Sserwadda may be on international duty, but he’s a bit player for them currently.

Attack

Up top, Burke is someone that I really wanted Charlotte to take a look at. The 31-year-old is a MLS veteran who spent the past 5 seasons with Philadelphia (along with a short loan spell at St. Pölten in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2019-20). With Philadelphia, he only started 38 games, but made 93 appearances, scoring 25 goals and getting 7 assists. His short stint with St. Pölten was also productive, as he had 4 goals and an assist in 11 appearances.

His best season from a goalscoring perspective was back in 2018 when he had 10 goals (and an assist) in 15 starts (29 appearances) for Philadelphia. Last year he did match that goal-contribution tally, as he had 7 goals and 4 assists in 8 starts (33 appearances). Those 11 goals and assists last year came on just 13.3 90s. Yes, playing for one of the best teams in the league will certainly help those numbers, but still impressive.

Burke is an odd one to analyze because even though he has a good goalscoring record (career 0.54 goals/90 for Philly!), he’s never been able to nail down a place with them. Maybe part of that was just how good Philly was/is, so they always had better options. I’m not sure. What I do know is his floor is really high (high-impact sub), while his ceiling for a couple of years could be that of a great goalscorer.

Tom Barlow is their other out-and-out striker. He’s spent his entire career in the RBNY setup, making 40 appearances (21 starts) for RBNY II over 3 seasons and 93 appearances (32 starts) for RBNY over 5 seasons. He has 19 goals and 3 assists for RBNY II and 11 goals for RBNY. He was at 0.79 goals/90 for RBNY II but has never translated that kind of production to the MLS (0.30 goals/90 for RBNY).

Last year was Barlow’s best goalscoring season for RBNY as he got 4 in 8 starts (33 appearances, 12.2 90s). I can’t be the only one who finds it odd that Burke and Barlow had the same number of starts and appearances last year. For years RBNY was basically rocking with “we have Cory Burke at home” with Barlow, before finally getting Burke.

Manoel is the other player who has started at striker for New York, but only when they’ve been with 2 at the top. Charlotte fans might remember that name because the young Brazilian got his first–and so far only–MLS goals against us on the last weekend of 2022. At 21, he’s now in his first full season for RBNY, having joined midyear from Grêmio in the Brazilian Série A. For Grêmio, he made 23 appearances (8 starts) over 2 seasons, scoring twice.

Manoel is a different type of forward than Burke or Barlow. The latter are big: 6’2″, 172 lbs for Barlow; 6’3.5″, 185 lbs for Burke. Manoel meanwhile is 5’9″ and 163 lbs. So he’s well built, but on the shorter side.

With only 10 appearances (7 starts), there’s not much data on him. I was impressed with him against us last year, but Charlotte players also looked like they would have rather been anywhere but playing that game. I’m not sure how much we can take from his performance in that game.

RBNY’s two DPs can also be found in the attack: Luquinhas and Dante Vanzeir.

Luquinhas is in his second year with RBNY, having scored 6 total goals (5 last year) and getting 3 assists (all last year). Over this time, he’s made 34 appearances (25 starts) for New York. He’s had an up-and-down time with New York.

He started well for the club. Through the first 4 months of last year (March through June), he scored 5 times and got 2 assists. After their June 18th match against Toronto, in which he scored, he would not score again and only had one more assist (8/2/22 against Colorado). He did score last week to help give New York the win, so good times for him may be coming?

These maps look a bit different. Last year there is a noticeable right-side bias for Luquinhas, whereas this year, things seem pretty even so far, if not more left-side focused. There’s some versatility in his game, as he’s been started as a left-sided CAM behind a lone striker, as a left-sided wide player in their 4-2-3-1, and as a right-sided wide player in their 4-4-2.

Vanzeir is the player I’m most interested in seeing. He scored the game-winner for New York last week in the 85th minute. More importantly, for a developmental club like RBNY, the money they paid is notable.

🇧🇪 New York Red Bulls DP forward Dante Vanzeir scores his first MLS goal! Potential game-winner after joining for an initial fee of $5.3m, which could become RBNY's club-record signing with add-ons pic.twitter.com/lOuKoFdTJS
— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) March 19, 2023

It’s easy to see why they paid out too. Vanzeir joins after 3 incredibly productive seasons for Belgian side Union SG. Over 73 appearances (71 starts), Vanzeir had 42 goals and 17 assists. This includes years of 19 goals (4 PKs) in 2020-21, 13 goals (1 PK) in 2021-22, and 10 goals in 2022-23. His assist numbers are equally impressive: 6 in 2020-21, 9 in 2021-22, and 2 in 2022-23. These numbers also don’t include his 12-goal, 2-assists season in 2018-19 for Beerschot (when he was 20!).

I’m not quite sure what to call Vanzeir positionally. Even FBref puts his game log positions as simply “FW.” Clearly, he likes the right side, but he does pop up all over the pitch. He hasn’t started for RBNY yet but has come on in 3 games from the bench onto the right side. I’d probably call him a winger, but I do find his lack of trackback interesting. A wide player who scores as much as him, though, is fantastic. Lord knows Charlotte could use one…

Elsewhere in attack, you’ll find Morgan, Fernandez, Harper, and Cásseres Jr.

Morgan is the “elder” statesman of this group at only 26. He was great for New York last year, scoring 14 times and getting 3 assists in 32 appearances (31 starts). There are some caveats to this production though.

First, 6 of his goals were PKs. An 8-goal return for a wide player is nothing to ignore, but that kind of PK production can’t be relied upon year in and year out. Second, he’s only replicated that kind of goal production a couple of times in his career, and that was mostly early.

In 2016-17 as a 19-year-old, Morgan had 6 goals and 6 assists for St. Mirren in the Scottish Championship. He followed that season up with a 14-goal, 5-assist season. This got him a move to Celtic in the Scottish Premiership, though he did spend time on loan with Sunderland in English League 1. His time with Sunderland wasn’t bad (1 goal and 5 assists in 17 appearances), but he was never able to break into the Celtic first team. In all, he only made 14 appearances for Celtic with 3 starts and never scored or assisted.

In 2020 he moved to Inter Miami, where he spent 2 years. His first year in Miami was good, as he netted 5 goals (1 PK) and 5 assists. In 2021, though, he reverted back to his old non-goal-scoring ways (2 goals, 1 assist in 34 starts).

So what to make of him? Morgan has serious talent and at only 26, he’s nowhere near washed. His ceiling–if you exclude PKs–seems to be about 4-8 goals with around the same number of assists. That’s hugely valuable for a wide player! If you do that every year, you’re at 8-12 goal contributions consistently. Again, we Charlotte fans can only dream of that kind of production from the wings. I for one hope he needs another week to fully recover.

Cásseres joined New York as an 18-year-old. He made 3 appearances that year for the MLS club, but primarily played at RBNY II. Since 2019, though, he’s been a major piece for them. From 2019 to 2022, he made 96 appearances with 83 starts. For his career with RBNY, he has 13 goals and 2 assists. His 2021 season has been his best so far, as he got 6 goals and 3 assists, but last year was still decent (2 goals, 4 assists). Like Luquinhas, he has some positional flexibility and has been started as a CAM, wide right player, and a midfielder in a 4-4-2.

Harper is only 21 and seems to be breaking into the first team this year. He’s started 3 of the 4 games after appearing in 17 games (6 starts) last year. He had 2 goals and 2 assists last year. Last year he seems to have been played as a wingback or right winger mostly, while this year FBref has him as a RB, WB, and RM. It makes categorizing him difficult. New York’s official roster lists him as a forward, so we’ll go with that and put him in this section. It’s readily apparent, though, that’ll they’ll look to get him into the lineup however they can on that right side.

Fernandez is 24 and has spent his entire career with the RBNY organization. He only ever made 5 appearances for RBNY II, but has 86 appearances and 37 starts for RBNY. Last year was his best year as he got into 27 games (21 starts), scored 2 goals, and had 3 assists. Those aren’t amazing numbers, but he’s still a relatively young player. With that said, I’m not sure what his path to the Starting XI is when everyone is healthy. He played a lot as an attacking midfielder last year, but can also seemingly play out wide. With Luquinhas, Morgan, Cásseres, Harper, and now Vanzeir, the competition is fierce.

Midfield

New York is young in the midfield: Yearwood (23), Amaya (22), Daniel Edelman (19), Peter Stroud (20), and Steven Sserwadda (20).

As previously mentioned, Yearwood hasn’t appeared in a game this season due to injury. He’s been an important player for them over the past two years though, making 54 appearances and 36 starts. He has 3 goals and 2 assists over that same time. Again, he’s back in training, but I wouldn’t expect him to start. Perhaps he makes it off the bench.

Sserwadda and Stroud haven’t really played. Sserwadda got into 2 games last year for a total of 29 minutes, while Stroud has 1 appearance for 12 minutes this year. Stroud interestingly did have an appearance for West Ham’s junior team back in 2018-19.

While Edelman is only 19, he got into 16 games (10 starts) last year for RBNY. This year, he’s made two starts. There’s not a lot of data on him to make any kind of definitive declarations, but his defensive profile looks very good.

Edelman defensive percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs

The rest of his profile looks…a work in progress.

Amaya is a player who caught my eye last year. He’s been a starter in MLS since he was 18 when he made 19 appearances (15 starts) for Cincinnati. He made 21 starts the next year, before moving to RBNY. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s made 50 appearances and 37 starts for Red Bulls, including starting all 4 of their games this year. Last year was by far his best year for goal contributions, as he had one goal and 3 assists.

There’s a definite right-sided bias to Amaya’s mass, which is further reflected in their lineups (i.e., right-sided CM in whatever formation they’re playing).

To be honest, there’s nothing much in his percentiles that jump out. He’s decent defensively (80th percentile for tackles, 63rd percentile for interceptions) and, when he chooses to take someone on (44th percentile for take-ons attempted), he’s usually successful (94th percentile for successful take-on percentage). Although he’s below average in his passing (18th percentile for passes completed, 19th percentile for pass completion percentage), he creates a decent amount with that passing (75th percentile for progressive passes, 84th percentile for goal-creating actions).

All 3 of RBNY’s primary CMs (Amaya, Edelman, and, I assume, soon-to-be Yearwood) aren’t in the team to create. They’re all above average defensively and provide cover to break up attacks. Amaya’s passing, in particular, should be looked at as a byproduct of New York’s play style, i.e., cede possession and play a transition game. Viewed that way, it explains some of the low percentages while also explaining the danger his passes can cause. I’m not sure what he would look like on a more possession-based side, but he’s a player that simply intrigues me.

Defense

New York has 3 defenders who have yet to make an appearance for them this year: Hassan Ndam, Matt Nocita, and Jayden Reid. Nocita and Reid have never made an appearance for RBNY, though Nocita did make 7 appearances (all starts) last year for RBNY II. Ndam has made 4 appearances (2 starts) for RBNY, including 2 appearances last year. Fun fact: he had 5 appearances (4 starts) for Charlotte in the USL Championship back in 2019.

RBNY employs the two Nealis brothers, Dylan (24) and Sean (26), at center back. Dylan began his career with Inter Miami (2020), before moving to Cincinnati for a year (2021). He joined New York and his brother last year, making 28 appearances (20 starts) and getting 2 assists. Meanwhile, Sean has spent his entire career in the Red Bulls organization. He’s made 65 appearances over the past 3 years (2021-23), including 33 last year. All his appearances over this time frame have been starts. He only has 2 career goals, the most recent of which came in 2021.

Sean Nealis is a center-back, but Dylan has spent time as a fullback. According to FBref, last year, he mostly split his time as a CB (14 appearances) and fullback/wingback (18 appearances). He played on both sides of the pitch too. More interesting, he also has designations of RW, LW, and CM. This year, Dylan only has appearances as a center back, but it’s clear there is definitive positional flexibility with him.

Dylan’s defensive percentiles are pretty outrageous, regardless of if he’s compared with CBs or FBs.

D. Nealis defensive percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CBs

Those numbers are just outstanding across the board. You might point to the low % of dribblers tackled or challenges lost as a point of issue, and perhaps it is. I tend to think it might just be a function of how often he is challenging opponents.

S. Nealis defensive percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CBs

The younger Nealis is better defensively, though the elder one isn’t bad. What I will say is neither is a good passer, or at least they’re not asked to be one. Dylan is in the 2nd percentile for passes completed, while Sean is in the 1st percentile.

Andrés Reyes is a similar player to the Nealis brother. The U22 Initiative player is good defensively and poor with his passing.

Reyes defensive percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CBs

Reyes is young at only 23. A foot injury kept him out of 23 games last year (2/21/22 through 7/7/22) and he was only able to make 12 appearances (8 starts) after having made 19 appearances (17 starts) in 2021. This year he’s started all 4 games.

Kyle Duncan is a RB who hasn’t featured much for RBNY over the past 2 years. He made his first appearances (4 starts) for RBNY when he was 18 back in 2018. He made 13 starts the following year (2019), 21 starts (23 appearances) in 2020, and 32 appearances (27 starts) in 2021. During this time he scored 5 goals and got 8 assists. He had a short loan with Oostende in the Belgian league, making 7 starts. Last year, he only appeared in 9 games for RBNY (6 starts). So far this year, he’s only appeared in 2 games, though he did start one.

It’s unclear to me why he’s not playing as much as he used to. He had a cruciate ligament rupture in 2018, missed a couple of games with a knee issue in 21/22 with Oostende, and has missed 1 game this year with a groin strain. His percentile numbers look really good in 2020 and, though they fall off a bit (especially the shooting numbers), still look decent in 2021. I’m not quite sure why he’s fallen out of favor, but he seems a talented MLS fullback. I don’t follow RBNY closely enough to give a good answer to this.

Finally, John Tolkin has been the primary LB for New York over the past 3 years. He’s started all 4 games this year after starting 31 in 2022 and 22 (28 appearances) in 2021. He was 18 in 2021 and is still only 20 right now. Last year he had a goal and 3 assists. He already has 2 assists this year. Now those 2 assists have come off of just a 0.4 xGA, so there might be some luck. Regardless, he’s a talented young player.

Like most of New York’s backline, his defensive numbers are good. While the overall passing numbers don’t look great on the surface, he attempts a lot of long balls (76th percentile), which leads to a good number of key passes (82nd percentile). His GCA and SCA numbers are also quite good (86th percentile for shot-creating actions; 63rd percentile for goal-creating actions).

His heatmaps back up his numbers and are probably due to the way New York sets up. Again, they don’t desire the ball and high possession numbers. They want to win the ball and get it into the opponent’s territory quickly. It thus makes sense that his primary positions would be in his own half and the areas just past the halfway line.

Goalkeepers

New York has 3 goalkeepers on its roster: Carlos Coronel, Ryan Meara, and Anthony Marcucci. Marcucci has never featured for RBNY, though he has played a good amount over the past couple of years for RBNY II.

Meara is the backup. He’s spent much of his career with RBNY, though he did play in one game for NYCFC in 2015. He’s never been a starter for RBNY. He made a career-high (for MLS) number of starts in 2020 with 13, allowing 16 goals and having a PSxG+/- of +0.8. He made 0 appearances in 2021 and just one last year.

The reason for this is simple: Carlos Coronel. He joined New York in 2021 from RB Salzburg (must be nice to be able to just pass players between clubs in different countries/leagues). He made 34 starts in 2021 and 33 starts last year. Coronel was outstanding in his first year. He allowed only 33 goals, which was good for a 0.97 GA90. His PSxG+/- was an outstanding +7.7. Last year was not as good. He allowed 39 goals (1.18 GA90) and his PSxG+/- was significantly worse at -0.6. For reference, Kahlina made 31 starts last year, allowed 48 goals (1.55 GA90), and had a -3.6 PSxG+/-, so while it was a down year for Coronel compared with his first season, it was still better than Kahlina’s. So far this year he’s at a -0.5 PSxG+/-but has only allowed 3 goals.

So what to make of this dropoff for Coronel?

First, I looked at his save percentage. It went from 75% in 2021 t0 66.1% in 2022. This wasn’t the result of him facing more shots, as that number actually dropped (3.53 shots/90 in 2021 to 3.39 shots/90 in 2022). Looking at his Post-Shot Expected Goals, he was actually better last year (83rd percentile) than he was in 2021 (66th percentile). The shots he did face were more difficult (91st percentile for PSxG/SoT) and his PSxG/SoT was 0.35 per 90, which ranked 2nd in the league. However, he had a PSxG/SoT of 0.31 per 90 in 2021, which was in the 82nd percentile. So in both years, he was facing difficult chances.

Next, I looked at the one thing that did jump out to me in his percentiles: Corner Kick Goals Against. In 2021 he was in the 82nd percentile for Corner Kick Goals Against, allowing only 0.03 goals per 90. Last year dropped to the 39th percentile, allowing 0.18 goals per 90. This is one of those things where numbers just can’t tell the whole story. My gut says this poor performance on corners has led to the downward in his PSxG+/-, but I don’t know for sure. Further, I don’t know why this performance decreased so much in this area.

At the end of the day, this feels like a big year for Coronel. From a traditional stats perspective, last year was still good. Again, 1.18 goals/90 is nothing to laugh at. The underlying numbers point to potential issues, but goalkeeper numbers are usually dependent to some degree on the defense in front of them. As such, it’s best to use them as a barometer of a player, rather than a definitive statement about them. Coronel appears to be a decent keeper. At the very least he’s league-average, but my gut says he’s probably above average.

Conclusion

RBNY are such a young team that I think there’s always going to be variance in their performances. When your “senior” players are 26 and many of your automatic starters are 22-25, there’s a lot of room for youthful excellence and mistakes.

Listen, you don’t wish for injury, but if Morgan and Vanzeir can’t go, along with Cásseres and Burke being unavailable due to international duty, it’s a big boon for Charlotte. That’s a lot of attacking talent that would be unavailable for them.

Speaking of unavailable, Westwood is going to miss the game this weekend. I’m very disappointed with this. I thought he looked good the first 30 minutes against Orlando and I don’t think our poor performance in the 2nd half was unrelated to his withdrawal. On the bright side, one has to think this means Nuno gets the start. Right? The other option would seem to be Shinyashiki in Westwood/Karol’s place (CL is going to make a lot of people mad if/when he does put Andre in over Nuno).

The other area of concern is with Bill Tuiloma, who is questionable. If he can’t go, I would think Sobociński would get the nod, but DJ did get time at CB during the preseason. If DJ is Malanda’s CB partner, then it opens up the midfield to both Andre and Nuno. I’m not sure that happens and I’m not sure it should. Many may have written Sobo off, or at the very least forgotten about him, but he’s only 24. Injuries hurt him last year, but he’s very young for a CB.

Up top, Vargas has to start. You would think it would be on the left, as he looked good there. If so, I imagine it’s Gaines back on the right wing. I wouldn’t be opposed to Vargas on the right and Jóźwiak on the left, but the Orlando game makes me wonder if CL will do that. Another option would be Vargas on the left and Shinyashiki on the right. Again, don’t think CL will do this. I don’t want to see Jóźwiak start on the right. I just don’t believe in him there.

In goal, I think Marks has definitely earned another start. I’d also like to see Jaylin get another start. I thought his passing was tremendous against Orlando. On the other side, I can’t believe it, but, yes, Afful also earned another start. He was very good.

With all this said, I would’ve never predicted Jaylin or Marks to start last week, along with both Jóźwiak and Karol being benched. Who knows what CL will do this week to surprise us?

I’m feeling weirdly positive about this game and think that we’re not only going to keep the good times going, but we’re also going to do it in style, shutting New York out.

Prediction: Charlotte 2 – RBNY 0

The 2023 Orlando Preview, Pt. 1

#OrlandoCity is this how we feel?
(C/T @OCFanTV2) #MLS pic.twitter.com/rVcxGaUghD
— MLS Now (@MLSNowPodcast) March 13, 2023

Huh, guess these fanbases have something in common. I’d give Orlando fans first dibs on these feelings due to their seniority. Saturday was as noncompetitive as I’ve seen Charlotte in its short history. That’s about all I have to say about things that have happened over the past week.

Lineups

Orlando has started the season much better than Charlotte with a home victory over RBNY (1-0), a home draw against Cincinnati (0-0), and an away draw against DC United (1-1). Defensively, you feel okay about that, but 2 goals in 3 games isn’t great (says the fan of the 1 goal team…).

In addition to theses league games, Orlando is also in the CCL. On 3/7, they produced a great result of 0-0 at UANL. I say this statement in all sincerity, as it set them up very well for the home leg on 3/15. Well, in addition to Fox cutting the feed before the game was over, Orlando came up just short with a 1-1 draw, sending Tigres through on away goals (stupid rule). Tigres is one of the better clubs on this continent, so I don’t think Orlando should be too down on itself. Certainly disappointed, but not disheartened.

More importantly from a Charlotte perspective, Orlando has played 180 more minutes of football than us, including what will be 3 games this week. Wednesday night’s affair was all high-stakes, so hopefully it was energy sapping.

Now, there is a positive way to look at this. We are still very much in “early season” form. Part of the reason MLS teams struggle so much in CCL is because the MLS season has just started, while Liga MX (and other leagues) sides have been going for multiple games already. UANL has already played 11 league games. The chemistry of that team is far above Orlando’s, or any MLS side. There might be more wear on Orlando legs; they might have better understanding, though.

Orlando vs. RBNY, 2/25

Orlando vs. Cincinnati, 3/4

Orlando at DC, 3/11

Orlando at UANL, 3/7

Orlando vs. UANL, 3/15

Orlando’s lineups are all over the place. It looks like a 4-2-3-1 might be their preferred, but then you have that 3-4-2-1 and 5-3-2 hanging out there. Now, the differences between a back 5 and a back 3 can be blurry, so that 3-4-2-1 could easily be a 5-2-3 (or something of the sort). The point is, this is a team that has some lineup variation, so it should be interesting to see what they do on Saturday with it.

My guess–based on the way they started the season and the lineup they’ve put out against Tigres–is that the 4-2-3-1 with those personnel choices is the (mostly) preferred lineup.

Injury

According to the MLS Availability Report, Orlando have a pretty clean bill of health. Only forward Favian Loyola is listed as Questionable with a left thigh injury. He’s 17 and doesn’t have a first team appearances, so, all-in-all, Orlando will be coming in with a full-strength squad.

Note: Antonio Carlos has injury concerns but isn’t listed in the Availability Report. More on this later.

Attack

Like Atlanta, Orlando has a young South American DP player who should be the focal point of opposition teams: the Uruguayan, Facundo Torres. There were rumors of Torres being linked to Arsenal in January, though obviously nothing came of that.

Torres is listed as a midfielder and forward, which is unsurprising when you see the formations above. The 22-year-old had a strong debut season in MLS last year, scoring 9 goals (1 PK) and getting 8 assists. Now, he did that off the back of a 4.7 xG (4.0 npxG) so there is some question about the sustainability of that goal-scoring production. Good goal-scorers usually over-perform their xG; they don’t usually double it. He also over-performed his xAG, which was 5.4. He has 1 of Orlando’s 2 goals on the season.

Torres had 10 goals over 50 appearances for Peñarol (his previous club) in his age 19 and 20 seasons. The history of goalscoring is there. The questions are: does his goal tally come down? Does the xG improve? Is he a unicorn who consistently over performs his xG to this level? He’ll be 23 this season, so there’s plenty of time for this to become clear. What is clear now is that Charlotte will have to be aware of him.

In addition to his obvious goal-contributions, Torres is a dangerous passer. He’s not elite here yet, but he is good. He’s in the 83rd percentile for assists, the 81st percentile for progressive passes, and in the 70th percentile ranges for passes into the final third (76th), passes into the penalty area (74th), and crosses into the penalty area (71st).

He’s a good carrier of the ball (82nd percentile for carries, 72nd percentile for progressive carrying distance, and 76th percentile for carries into the final third) and receiver of the ball (80th percentile for passes received, 74th percentile for progressive passes received).

Torres MLS heatmap 2023

Torres MLS heatmap 2022

He’s recreating his map from last year. There is a bias toward the right side of the pitch, but it’s clear that he’s going to drift all over the final third. He’s been started as a CAM, RM/RW, or part of a strike partnership. His versatility makes him dangerous. Considering how many issues Almada and ATL gave use with attacking our left side (before finishing attacks on our right side), we should be concerned.

Elsewhere in attack, you’ll find DP striker Ercan Kara, Jack Lynne, Moises Tablante, the injured Loyola, Gaston González, Ramiro Enrique, Duncan McGuire, Dagur Dan Þórhallsson, and Martín Ojeda. Neither Lynne nor Tablante has made a senior appearance this year and Lynne only had 3 appearances (for 4 minutes) last year. Lynn is currently out on loan.

Kara is a 27-year-old Austrian striker. He’s big at 6’3.5″ and 192 lbs. He’s in his 2nd season for Orlando having come over from Rapid Wien in the Austrian Bundesliga. He had 11 goals (1 PK) and 3 assists last year on 9.4 xG and 1.6 xAG. For as big as he is, he doesn’t have the number of headed goals you might expect. Of his 10 non-PK goals, only 3 were headers. Most were with the right foot, while one was with his left. The way to defend him, then, seems pretty simple (/s): force him off that right foot.

Kara started the first two games but did not start in Orlando’s game against DC or in their CCL games. I haven’t been able to find anything about these absences being related to injury, so it might be a form issue.

In Kara’s place, Enrique and McGuire have come in. Enrique is 21 and in his first season in MLS, having arrived from Banfield. He had 8 goals and 2 assists in 51 appearances for Banfield. McGuire is 22 and was selected in the most recent SuperDraft (#6 overall) from Creighton. From Orlando’s announcement about his signing:

McGuire is coming off a breakout year that earned him the 2022 MAC Hermann Trophy, an annual award given to college soccer’s best player. He set the Creighton single-season record for goals (23), picked up Second Team All-America honors, and helped propel his team to the College Cup.

I will say again: it’s exceedingly rare for a SuperDraft pick to get serious minutes. McGuire might be the exception. He has Orlando’s other league goal on the season. Enrique, meanwhile, has started both CCL games for them.

González (21), Þórhallsson (22), and Ojeda (24) are all first year MLS players. Orlando has really turned this roster over. González joins from CA Unión in the Argentina Primera. In 2021, González had 5 goals and 6 assists as a 19-year-old. On the year he has 2 appearances (1 start) with 0 goals or assists. In his 1 start, he appears to have played as a left wing-back.

Þórhallsson joins Orlando from the Norwegian side Mjøndalen. He has 3 appearances (2 starts) with 0 goals and an assist on the year. He’s been started in an attacking midfielder role behind a striker (or 2 strikers).

Finally, Ojeda joins Orlando from Godoy Cruz in Argentina. He made 50 appearances for Godoy, scoring 18 goals (2 PKs) and 12 assists over that time. This includes a 12-goal, 3-assist season in 2021. Ojeda has made 3 league appearances (1 start) so far. He was played as a CAM in this start. He played the same role in his other start against UANL in the first leg.

Ojeda was a $4.01M signing, so the expectations are high for him.

Ojeda Godoy Cruz heatmap from 2022

With Godoy Cruz, he shows a strong bias towards the right. I can’t speak on how exactly he was deployed with them.

Ojeda MLS heatmap from 2023

With Orlando, this bias has not shown up. It probably reflects his more central role for Orlando, though as his Godoy Cruz map shows, he will drift all over the pitch. If he starts, the interplay between him and Torres will be fascinating to watch.

Midfield

In the midfield, Orlando will deploy their last DP, Mauricio Pereyra, Felipe Martins, Wilfredo Rivera, César Araújo, Erick Gunera-Calix,
Iván Angulo, Wilder Cartagena, and Shakur Mohammed. Mohammed was Orlando’s other high SuperDraft pick (#2 overall) but has yet to feature for the club. Rivera and Gunera-Calix also have yet to make a senior team appearance.

Felipe Martins joined on a free from Austin. He made 28 appearances for Austin, but only started 5 games. He scored once and had 2 assists. At 32, he’s probably done with being a consistent starter. In fact, you have to go back to 2019, when he was with Vancouver, for him to have made above 10 starts in a season. He has been in MLS since 2012, though, so he definitely knows the league.

Pereyra is the big name of this group. The 33-year-old Uruguayan is now in his 5th season with Orlando, having made 86 appearances (79 starts), including 32 appearances (31 starts) last year. Before Orlando, he was in the Russian Premier League with Krasnodar and was initially a goalscorer. In 2013-14, he scored 6 goals with 4 assists and followed that season up with a 9-goal, 1 assist season in 2014-15. Since then, though, he’s become more of a playmaker. With Orlando, he’s only scored 4 total goals, including just 1 last year. To be honest, he’s been a bit unlucky with his goal-scoring. He had a 2.6 xG in 2021 and a 2.9 xG last year. In each year he only scored once. This isn’t a crazy disparity, so I don’t think it points to a likely upshot of goals; it’s simply noteworthy. He had 7 assists in 2021 and 8 assists last year. He’s yet to get an assist this year, but history says those will come.

So far this year, Pereyra seems to be playing a bit further back than he was in 2022. That’s unsurprising considering the attacking midfield talent (Ojeda, Þórhallsson) they’ve brought in. Regardless of whether you consider him a CAM or CM, his penetrative passing numbers are excellent. He’s among the league leaders in progressive passing, passes into the penalty area, passes into the final third, and key passes. Additionally, he’s excellent when it comes to shot-creating actions. The percentiles below show that regardless of how you consider him (CAM or CM), his passing is elite.

Pereyra Passing Percentiles and Goal and Shot Creation Percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CAMs (left) and CMs (right)

Cartagena is in his 2nd season with Orlando, having joined last year. He only made 8 appearances (4 starts) but joined on loan from Ittihad Kalba in August. The loan is set to expire at the end of this year. Unlike most of Orlando’s other new arrivals, Cartagena is a veteran at 28 years old.

Cartagena has appeared in all 3 league matches for Orlando, starting 2. His role is to be a defensive balance to Orlando’s attacking talent. He does the job very well, as he’s a good tackler and interceptor of the ball.

Araújo and Angulo are both in their 2nd seasons with Orlando. Araújo made 31 appearances (28 starts) for Orlando last year. He’s never had a goal or an assist in his career. He’s appeared in all 3 league games so far but has only started 1. Meanwhile, Angulo joined in the summer of last year and made 9 appearances (5 starts), recording 2 assists. Angulo has appeared in all 3 league games but has made only 2 starts. Both started in the matchups with UANL. Angulo has started as the left wide player when Orlando is in a 4-2-3-1 and as a wingback when they are in a back 5.

Araújo’s job is to be cover, but I’m not sure he’s great at it (he’s not bad). His passing is good and safe (high-ish percentiles for pass completion overall and in the short/medium ranges). He’s not progressing the ball much, but that doesn’t need to be his job when you have someone like Pereyra.

Defensively, he’s a good tackler (83rd percentile), great against dribblers (97th percentile of dribblers tackled), and reads the game well (76th percentile for tackles plus interceptions). With that said, I think there’s a reason they brought in Cartagena. He does all of these things, but better. Araújo is only 21, so Cartagena has 7 years on him. It’s not a surprise that Cartagena would be more solid defensively at this point in their respective careers. Araújo isn’t a great CDM yet, but has the talent to be. It’s also important to note he’s started their two biggest games of the season against Tigres, which does show what the club thinks of him.

Angulo doesn’t have a history of goal contribution. His best season (goal-contribution-wise) was as an 18-year-old in the Colombian league, where he had 2 goals and 3 assists. This got him a move to Palmeiras in Brazil, but he never made an appearance. He got into 3 games with Botafogo before moving to Portimonense in the Portuguese league. He made 32 appearances (27 starts) for Portimonense, but only recorded 1 goal and 1 assist. Last year’s tally of 2 assists in MLS wasn’t bad, especially considering his limited playing time, however, you have to imagine teams are looking for more production from the wing than what he’s historically provided (is he their Jóźwiak?).

It’s a small sample size, but nothing jumps out in Angulo’s percentiles with the exception of his carry numbers. He was in the 91st percentile for carries into the final third and the 85th percentile for carries into the penalty area. He’s only in the 40th percentile for progressive carries, though, so it’s still an area of growth. It must be said that 6.1 90s is hardly enough time to accurately measure his ability.

Defense

Orlando lists 3 young defenders on their roster who have yet to make an appearance this year: Alexander Freeman, Thomas Williams, and Brandon Hackenberg. Of the 3, only Williams has ever had a senior appearance (4 apps, 2 starts last year).

There is a 4th defender, Antonio Carlos, who has yet to make an appearance for Orlando this year. Unlike the others, Carlos has been a key contributor for Orlando at center back over the past few years. He joined Orlando in 2020, having spent 3 years with Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. He made 36 appearances for Palmeiras. Since joining Orlando, Carlos has made 70 appearances, including 64 starts. He’s been out with an injury (yay MLS Availability Report not showing that!) picked up in the preseason. Orlando’s own fans note his absence’s effect on their ability to defend in the air:

Carlos’ most effective aerial season was in 2021, when he tied forward Daryl Dike for the team lead with 2.2 aerials won per game. Last year, with Dike in England, Carlos led the team for the second consecutive season with 1.9 aerials won per game, despite missing time with a hamstring injury.

This aerial ability is real too; it’s not just fan bias. Carlos is in the 74th percentile for aerials won, 89th percentile for aerials lost, and 99th percentile for percentage of aerials won. The other two primary CBs on this roster–Robin Jansson and Rodrigo Schlegel–are horrible. Jansson is in the 6th percentile for aerials won and the 9th percentile for percentage of aerials won. Schlegel is equally inept, as he’s in the 11th percentile of aerials won and 5th percentile of percentage of aerials won.

Charlotte FC currently lead MLS in open play crosses by a wide margin, with 78— 26 per game.

Last year's leader was the New England Revolution with 584— 17 per game. https://t.co/B55dFhEhP8
— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) March 14, 2023

If there was ever a time when “cross and pray” might work, this is the game. It should be noted that Carlos has been back in training and has made the bench against both DC United and UANL, so there is a chance he plays Saturday. Let’s hope he needs a bit more time.

Carlos’ primary CB partner has been Jansson. Jansson is in his 5th season with Orlando and starts most of their games. Over this time, he’s appeared in 103 matches, starting 99 of them. He provides a little threat in front of goal, getting 4 goals over the past 2 seasons (2021 and 2022). 3 of those goals did come in 2021, so I’m not sure he’s someone that we need to be seriously concerned about, but it’s something to watch out for.

Jansson is a decent passer of the ball, especially when it comes to long passes. He’s in the 86th percentile for long pass completion percentage. This percentage comes on the back of him routinely trying these types of passes (63rd percentile for long passes attempted). He also likes to carry the ball out of the back, as he’s in the 89th percentile for take-ons attempted, the 92nd percentile for successful take-ons, and the 82nd percentile for progressive carries.

Schlegel has been the primary beneficiary of Carlos’ absence. He’s started all 3 games so far, though he did start quite frequently for Orlando over the past 2 years anyway (52 appearances, 39 starts over the 2021-2022 seasons). Schlegel is a good tackler (93rd percentile), especially against dribblers (96th percentile).

Abdi Salim was the 17th overall selection in the most recent SuperDraft. He’s played as a CB in 2 games for Orlando (both times when they were in a back 3 or 5 configuration). This being his first professional season, there’s not much data to look at.

Kyle Smith is a fullback turned center-back*, at least currently. He’s appeared in all 3 league games but has only started as part of a back 3 or 5. He did get into 29 games (14 starts) last year for Orlando, scoring 2 goals. He’s in his 5th season with Orlando, having made 98 appearances (63 starts), scoring 3 goals, and assisting once.

*Note: The regular caveats about formation apply here. I’m basing position designations on the lineups released by MLS. There’s every chance that they show a back 5 with Smith as a CB, but in reality, it was a back 4 with him at his usual fullback position.

To return to the aerial issue Orlando is having and Smith’s role in it. Smith is decent in the air for a fullback (87th percentile for aerials won, 40th percentile for percentage of aerials won). As a center back, though, his percentile for aerials won falls to 22nd. That’s not a surprise, but simply reinforces the idea that this is an area of weakness for them.

Luca Petrasso was with Toronto last year and deployed primarily as a left-back, though he has some designations of wing back and winger as well. He made 23 appearances (21 starts) for Toronto, getting 2 assists. He’s made 2 league appearances and 1 start this year for Orlando, though he did also start both legs in CCL.

Michael Halliday is a young (20) fullback for Orlando. He’s come up through their organization and is actually in his 4th season with the club. He’s made 15 appearances (6 starts) over the past 3 years. Although he made just 6 (0 starts) appearances for 50 minutes last year, that’s not really surprising. Last year–and in the previous 3 prior years–Orlando had Ruan as their starting RB. With Ruan now in DC, it seems Orlando is giving Halliday a legitimate shot.

He’s appeared in all 3 of Orlando’s league games, making 2 starts, and started in both legs of their UANL tie. Being such a young player, there’s not much data to go on, but the fact that Orlando felt comfortable moving on from Ruan probably says it all.

The final defender that has appeared for Orlando is Rafael Santos. He’s in his first season with Orlando having joined from Coritiba in the Brazilian league. Over the past 3 years he’s bounced around a bit: Ponte Preta in 2021; Cruzeiro and Coritiba in 2022; Orlando currently. He’s made 55 appearances (47 starts) over this time. He has 3 career goals and 4 assists to his name, all back in 2021 with Ponte Preta.

Goalkeeping

Orlando has 4 keepers on their roster: Javier Otero, Mason Stajduhar, Adam Grinwis, and Pedro Gallese. Otera has never made a senior appearance and Grinwis has only done so in 2 years: 2021 (2 starts) and 2018 (5 starts). Stajduhar appears to be the backup. He made 2 starts last year and 5 starts in 2021.

The #1 is Gallese. The 33-year-old is off to a strong start in his 4th season with Orlando. He’s made 76 starts for the club, including 32 last year. In terms of raw numbers, last year was not a good year for Gallese. He allowed 47 goals (1.47 goals per 90), only had a 65.9% save percentage, and had a -2.2 PSxG+/-.

Until this year, the goals per 90 have actually increased for Gallese each year since he joined Orlando: 1.05 GA90 in 2020 (19 starts), 1.36 GA90 in 2021 (22 starts), and 1.47 GA90 last year. So far this year, he’s bounced back in a big way with a 0.33 GA90 in th league. He almost single-handedly kept Orlando in their games with Tigres by making a ton of really good saves. Gallese’s save percentage in 73.2% in 2020 and 70.8% in 2021. It’s a ridiculous 92.3% this year.

His PSxG+/- was okay in both 2020 (+2.4) and 2021 (+3.0). This year it’s already at +1.5. Now there is still plenty of time for this number to come down (Kahlina began last year with a strong PSxG+/- but finished in the negatives). Gallese is currently 4th in the league in PSxG+/-.

Gallese Goalkeeping percentiles vs. 2022 MLS GKs

Gallese Advanced Goalkeeping percentiles vs. 2022 MLS GKs

There’s not much that jumps out in his percentiles. He’s clearly not a bad keeper, but I tend to trust history over a 3-5 game stretch. Maybe this is a career year for Gallese, or maybe it’s a good run. If I had to bet, I’d say he comes down to earth a bit as the year goes on. Let’s hope that starts Saturday.

Conclusion

Desperate times indeed for Charlotte. Many will be calling this a “must-win” for the club and, while I see the logic behind that, I don’t know that I fully agree. Road games are tough in any league. Charlotte is historically very bad on the road. You offer me a draw right now and I’m biting your hand off for it.

The main source of hope for Charlotte probably comes in Orlando’s midweek CCL fixture. How much–if any–has that game fatigued them, both physically and mentally. With the crazy, and ultimately disappointing end, you have to hope a lot.

The second place to pin some hope is that Carlos is at least one more game away from being able to start. Otherwise, their biggest weakness gets patched. One player will not solve their aerial issues, but he will certainly provide a big boost.

From a Charlotte perspective, let’s not beat around the bush. Świderski on the right has not, is not, and will not work. If he’s going to start, Karol needs to be returned to the center of the pitch; it’s a game and a half late for this.

Wing production continues to be an issue for this team. The national media has latched onto Jóźwiak’s lack of production. While I think some of the criticism is unfair (I think he’s been one of our better players on the season), it’s not completely unfair. Charlotte has a goal differential of -6, has scored 1 goal, and was noncompetitive against Atlanta. Jóźwiak has not scored a goal in 92 league games. I’m a fan, but the reality is we need end production from him.

Instead of Świderski on the right, it’s time for Vargas to get the start. I’m a staunch Gaines supporter, but Vargas has earned a start. Each time he’s seen the pitch, he looks bright.

In midfield, while I’m dying to see Nuno Santos get a start, I don’t think it happens. I think we’ll see Świderski, Westwood, and Jones in the midfield.

Editor’s note: for information about how many of us feel about Jones at this current moment, check out our Wednesday pod. I’ll simply speak for myself here and say he was exceedingly bad, in my opinion.

The Bronico experiment at LB is not going well. I understand what CL wants from Bronico in that position, but Atlanta’s attacks all seemed to target that side. Wiley’s two goals were moves that ended on the right of our defense, but the thrusts of those attacks came on the left. The easiest answer to our backline issues is to buy a left back. If that is not going to happen (and I’m pessimistic it will), it feels like it’s either growing pains with Brandt or an uninspiring play from Mora/Afful.

On the other flank, Byrne has not been good. I refuse to believe that his skills have atrophied over a single off-season to the point he’s unplayable. I don’t know what has happened, but I believe the answer lies in how CL has been deploying his fullbacks. I don’t see a world in which Lindsey starts.

This is indeed Lindsey (left), Byrne (right; from English Championship). I've said this before, but the centrality of Byrne is why he plays. This is not to say Lindsey *couldn't* do it, but that he hasn't been asked to. https://t.co/RPszXTfk15
— The Crown Cast (@The_CrownCast) March 15, 2023

At center back, there is really no reason to change. I don’t think either of Tuiloma or Malanda were great against Atlanta, but that could be said of the entire team. Neither had obvious errors like they did against St. Louis, but both were culpable, to varying degrees, in the goals that were scored. Malanda was especially bad on the first goal.

Sisniega had a rough go of it, too. I’m not sure any of the goals can be fully placed on him, but I would like my goalie to save one of them. Sometimes you just need an unlikely save to keep you in the game and Pablo wasn’t able to do that for us. Is this fair? Probably not, but it’s how I feel. The Araújo goal is the one I really want him to save. I tend to be unfairly critical of goalies, especially when they get beat near-post.

This has not been the start of the season any of us wanted. It’s still too early to declare this season dead, but results need to start happening. Orlando is a good team, but they’re not elite (yet; the talent is real). They’ve had a ton of roster turnover in the past couple of years and started a number of young players who are new to the league. I think there’s a lot of talent in that squad, but I don’t know that they outclass us to the point that it’s impossible to get a positive result. Containing Torres and preventing Pereyra from dictating the game will be key.

Prediction: Orlando 1 – Charlotte 1

Data Notes: All heatmaps come fromSofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come fromFBref.com. All formation graphics are from MLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us,Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com.

The 2023 Atlanta Preview, Pt. 1

I’ve seen a lot of panic amongst the Charlotte faithful this week. Starting with 2 losses–one against a new expansion club–will do that. However, I want to provide some hope.

First, last year, Charlotte started with 3 straight losses, getting outscored 6-1 and 4-0 in the first 2 games. We’ve only been outscored 4-1 so far this year! Progress!

In all seriousness, though, even with the poor start last year, Charlotte still managed 42 points and barely missed out on the playoffs. Now, some among you may then blame this poor start for us missing out. There is an argument for that. However, I would point to the run of games in late August-early September as what did us in.

We lost 2-1 to Orlando at home on 8/21, followed that up with a 2-0 loss at home to Toronto on 8/27, and then lost on the road to Cincinnati 2-0 on 9/3. Cincinnati and Orlando both finished above us, with the latter getting the 7th seed with 48 points. Toronto finished 13th in the East last year on 34 points.

The point is, a run of bad games can happen. You can’t dig too deep a hole, but I’m simply not panicked yet. I’m not alone in that amongst my colleagues here at The Crown Cast. Unlike Joseph Lowery, who has us as an 8/10 on the panic meter, Logan and I are only at a 4. Justin is a bit higher at a 5, while Euan is lower at a 3. A blowout loss might change things but as of now, I’m feeling ok.

Is good Atlanta back?

Atlanta is currently 4th in the East on 4 points, having won (2-1 at home against San Jose) and drawn (1-1 against Toronto at home) in each of their first two games.

It’s too early to say if this Atlanta team will be back to its normal standard, but I think the indications are good. They’ve turned over the roster, kept talent from last year, and added some exciting talent this year.

Lineups

Atlanta vs. San Jose, 2/25

Atlanta vs. Toronto, 3/4

The first thing to notice is that the only change made was up top at striker where Jackson Conway was replaced by Miguel Berry. What’s really worrying about this is two of Atlanta’s big offseason signings–Derrick Etienne, Jr. (I wanted him badly for Charlotte) and Giorgos Giakoumakis (new DP striker)–have yet to start. Giakoumakis came off the bench against Toronto for 31 minutes, while Etienne has come off the bench in both games.

Caleb Wiley, who is listed as a defender on both Atlanta’s site and FBref, has started both games. Last year he saw a good amount of action (26 appearances, 18 starts) as a 17-year-old. According to FBref, he was all over the place, including LB, LW, CM, DM, and WB. Etienne played really well last year for Columbus on the left. I expect him to take that position over at some point soon.

Passing isn’t good but also being compared w/CMs. Think he is flattered by being compared to CMs for his attack numbers but 9 Gs and 6 As on 7.1 xG and 4.2 xA is very good. Biggest issue is he’s another left sided player but does have history of playing right side pic.twitter.com/7EFidL5V6H
— The Crown Cast (@The_CrownCast) October 26, 2022

What I think is most impressive about this team, at least on paper, is the depth. We’ll get into their players in a bit, but they have a lot of young talent, veteran leadership, and experience across almost every position.

Injury Report

Last week’s MLS Availability Report had 4 players out for Atlanta: midfielder Ozzie Alonso (ACL recovery) and forwards Tyler Wolff (shoulder), Machop Chol (hamstring), and Giakoumakis (visa). Obviously, Giakoumakis’ visa issue was settled by the game last weekend as he featured.

I wouldn’t expect to see Alonso in this game. He’s a good player and was a big loss for them last season but he is also 37 years old now. That recovery will take time.

As far as Chol and Wolff go, I don’t know their status. Chol only saw 80 minutes of game time over 6 appearances last year, so his inclusion or absence is probably not noteworthy.

Wolff got into 5 games last year (4 starts) but failed to score or record an assist. He also had a short loan spell to SK Beveren in the Belgian Second Division. He was recalled in January having only made 5 appearances (0 starts) for only 41 minutes. He didn’t appear in a game for Atlanta after an April 2nd match against DC. I’m not sure why. Wolff is a talented player, but Atlanta has reinforced their squad. He’ll have a battle for time.

Editor’s note: More on this further down, but looks unlikely that Matheus Rossetto will be playing for them.

Attack

Josef Martínez is no more in Atlanta. Having parted ways (in a somewhat ugly fashion), Atlanta loses a great of their young club. I imagine he will remain a great for that club, though. In his stead, Atlanta turns to Thiago Almada to run the attack.

The 21-year-old Argentinian is a monster talent. He only played in one game for Argentina at the World Cup, and only got in for 7 minutes. But the fact that a 21-year-old MLS player even made it on that squad speaks volumes about his talent (and the growth of this league). It’s not bold to say that he will not be long in this league. Europe will come calling.

Last year Almada made an immediate impact for Atlanta, getting into 29 games (25 starts) and recording 6 goals (6.0 xG) and 7 assists (7.6 xGA). The goals and assists are pretty much bang on those expected numbers, which is pretty impressive. He’s already at 2 goals (0.5 xG) and 1 assist (0.2 xGA) for the season, including single-handedly winning the game for Atlanta against SJ in STOPPAGE TIME:

Thiago Almada will be MLS’ most lucrative departure in the near future.

The 21-year-old Argentine World Cup winner delivered a 93’ game tying Golazo & a 99’ game winning free kick to welcome the MLS season for Atlanta in front of almost 70k fans. Gamer 🇦🇷pic.twitter.com/6ZERrIqW9W
— WJW FC (@WJWFC) February 27, 2023

The man can and will take over games. These goals are ridiculous and help explain his poor xG for this year, but if he can score these types of goals, he will score more common ones too. The xG from last year doesn’t show luck with his goal-scoring or contributing.

Almada heatmap, 2022 MLS season

Almada heatmap, 2023 MLS season

These heatmaps could be used as an exemplar for a CAM. He’s all over the opponent’s half of the pitch and will venture into the box as well. There is a bit of a left-sided bias, so Malanda, Byrne, and whoever is playing as the 6 and right-sided 8 will need to be aware.

Almada wants to dominate the ball, as he should. He was at 73.5 touches/90 last year and is at a ridiculous 97.0 this year. You’re not going to keep him off the ball. The trick is to contain him when he has it.

I mean, you just kind of have to laugh at the ridiculousness of these percentiles. This is Almada vs. 2022 MLS CAMs/wingers. Can you say elite? Sure, there are odd issues. The low touches in the attacking penalty are surprising, but he also doesn’t carry into the penalty area much. That then seems to be a feature of his play, not a deficiency. Honestly, the fact that he’s going to score 6-8 goals, if not more, but also pass this well is terrifying.

Atlanta bought Almada for $15.34M; they are going to sell him for a lot more. I would be surprised if, by the end of the summer window, he’s still in Atlanta.

Elsewhere in the attack, you’ll find the aforementioned Etienne, Giakoumakis Conway, and Berry, as well as Luis Araújo.

Etienne had 9 goals and 6 assists in 33 appearances (25 starts) last year for Columbus. As a wing player, that is excellent. Whereas Almada will stay out of the box, Etienne loves to be in there. He was in the 94th percentile for touches in the attacking penalty area/90 vs. 2022 MLS CAMs/wingers.

Giakoumakis is their new DP striker who they acquired for $4.22M from Celtic. Giakoumakis absolutely lit up the Eredivisie for a year with VVV-Venlo. During the 2020-21 season, he made 30 appearances (30 starts) for VVV-Venlo, scoring 26 goals and getting 1 assist. A whopping 8 of those goals were penalties, however, 18 non-PK goals are nothing to sneeze at. This performance got him his move to Celtic where he had a promising first year. In 2021-22, he made 21 appearances (11 starts), scoring 13 goals (12 non-PK goals) and getting 1 assist. His playing time bottomed out this year, though. He made 19 appearances but only had 4 starts (698 total minutes). He did get 6 goals and an assist during this time.

His heatmaps above (left: 2022/23 with Celtic, right: 2021/22 with Celtic) show a guy who likes to be in the penalty box around the goal. There are goals in his boots; I don’t doubt he’ll get quite a few with Atlanta this year.

While Conway and Berry both got the starts to begin the year, both are bit players. In the case of Conway, he’s still very young (21) while Berry is a bit of a journeyman already (although he’s only 25). Conway has yet to score a goal in MLS, but was prolific last year for Atlanta 2 (11 goals and an assist in 25 appearances). Berry, meanwhile, scored 8 goals for Columbus in 2021 in 18 appearances (9 starts). Since then, he’s made 16 appearances (13 starts) for Columbus (2022), 14 appearances (8 starts) for DC (2022), and 2 appearances (1 start) for Atlanta. He has scored 2 goals (both for Columbus) in all of those appearances.

Finally, there is Araújo. He joined Atlanta in 2021 for $11.50M from Lille in Ligue 1. He was 24 when he joined. Believe it or not, the year previous (2020-21), it was Lille who won Ligue 1 (not PSG).

Araújo spent 4 years at Lille, making 108 appearances and 54 starts. He scored 14 goals and had 8 assists, including 4 goals and 2 assists in his final season with them (when he made 27 appearances and 17 starts for the league winners). Yes, Atlanta signed a guy, entering his prime, from a title-winning team in one of Europe’s Big 5.

In his first year with Atlanta, Araújo made 15 appearances (13 starts), scoring 4 goals and getting 3 assists. Last year, he made 28 appearances (26 starts), scoring 4 goals and getting 5 assists. So far this year, he has played the full 90 of both games but is yet to get on the scoresheet.

Araújo is an interesting case because there is some belief he hasn’t quite lived up to the billing. In some ways, I get that argument, but, also, he’s never scored more than 5 goals in a season in his career (and that was in 2017-18). He is constantly between 2-4 goals and 2-3 assists per year. Whether that kind of return should be viewed as a disappointment for a wing DP is up to the reader. Based on his track record, though, I think that’s about what should have been expected of him.

To be honest, I’m not sure why he came here. I’m not a serious follower of the French league. It would seem he would have had options to remain in Europe if Lille were looking to offload him. Perhaps there weren’t? Or perhaps Atlanta offered the best deal? If anyone knows, I’d love to hear it. Regardless, Araújo will play on the right of Atlanta’s attack. Once Etienne and Gaikoumakis find their way into the starting lineup, Atlanta will boast one of the best front 4s in MLS (at least on paper).

Midfield

Atlanta’s FBref page lists 5 midfielders: Franco Ibarra, Matheus Rossetto, Amar Sejdic, Ajani Fortune, and the aforementioned Almada. For reasons that are hopefully obvious, I have included Almada in the “Attack” section. The official MLS site lists a further 6 midfielders: Ezequiel Barco, Marcelino Moreno, Santiago Sosa, Erik Centeno, the injured Alonso, and Etienne, who has also been included in the “Attack.”

Barco, Moreno, and Centeno are all out on loan. Sosa has yet to make an appearance this year, though he made 21 last year. He hasn’t made an appearance for the club since 10/1 against NE. During the game, he used a homophobic slur against the Revolution earning him a fine and a 3-match suspension. He’s currently listed as “unavailable” on Atlanta’s site, so I’m assuming it’s still fallout from his use of the slur. He didn’t make the bench for either of the first two matches. Fortune is a 20-year-old who has yet to make an appearance for the club.

The two starters in both games have been Ibarra and Rossetto, with Sejdic coming off the bench in both games (for a total of 12 minutes). Sejdic did play a lot for Atlanta last year (23 appearances, 18 starts), but some of that was due to injury. He’s a good depth to have and will probably push for a starter’s position. Ibarra made 20 appearances (11 starts) last year, getting one assist. Rossetto started 19 games (24 total appearances) and also had one assist. Rossetto does have a goal on the year, but neither is in the team to score.

Rossetto has been with Atlanta since 2020 and has made 62 appearances (46 starts). He’s an excellent buildup passer, as his percentiles show:

Rossetto passing percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs

Yeah, that’s basically everything you want from a deep-lying playmaker. Additionally, he likes to dominate the ball (80.90 touches/90) and is able to carry it well (96th percentile for progressive carrying distance). Defensively, he’s nothing to write home about but does like to regain the ball up the pitch (77th percentile for tackles in the attacking 3rd). He’s not bad defensively, but I’d label him as below-average overall.

Ibarra is the yin to Rossetto’s yang. The 21-year-old Argentinian arrived in Atlanta in 2021 as a 19-year-old. He immediately started playing in the first team, making 16 appearances and 9 starts. Last year he made 20 appearances and had 11 starts. At only 5’8.5″ and 152 lbs, Ibarra doesn’t fit the mold of a defensive destroyer, but he is.

Ibarra defensive percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs

It’s clear that Ibarra is in this team to clean up any attacks. These numbers, especially for a (then) 20-year-old, are superb. Unlike Rossetto, he’s not a good passer (56th percentile for passes completed, 49th percentile for progressive passing distance, 47th percentile for total passing distance) nor is he great on the ball (33rd percentile for take-ons attempted, 42nd percentile for carries, 3rd percentile for progressive carries). He doesn’t have to be, though. Soccer is about balance and Atlanta has it in this midfield pairing.

With attackers like Almada and Araújo and passers like Rossetto, you don’t need another offensive-minded player. You need someone who will retain possession, regain possession, and snuff out the danger. Ibarra most certainly does that.

Sejdic, who has come off the bench so far this year, is a good balance of Rossetto and Ibarra. He’s a better passer than Ibarra, but only an above-average one. He’s a really good defender, but not quite as good as Ibarra. As a player to see a game out, he’s perfect. As a player to fill in for either starter, he’s a great option. If Rossetto has to sit, you’d lose some passing ability in the midfield but the defensive nous would be incredibly high. If he had to replay Ibarra, the defensive drop would be minimal but you would add some passing range. I’m a bit jealous of this trio.

Editor’s note: It appears that Rossetto is likely to miss the match. While I believe that this will be a big miss for Atlanta, their fans very much disagree. In the words of many of their fans, he’s “mid.”

Absolutely monster news. Would be a big miss for Atlanta https://t.co/et6qmVHGFB
— The Crown Cast (@The_CrownCast) March 9, 2023

Unfortunately, none of them in this thread could give me a good reason for this belief. I was just told either 1) he passes sideways (which the above numbers show is not true; 82nd in progressive passes is the antithesis of “just passing sideways”) and 2) “trust me, bro.” That kind of argument is the one that makes me most upset. I’m willing to admit that I have missed something with Rossetto and that I am perhaps overrating him. I need a better reason than an “eye test” without actual analysis.

Defense

There was a time last year when Atlanta and Charlotte were both fielding an Alan Franco. Alas, our Franco has long departed (the club, not the Earth) and Atlanta has also moved theirs on. To replace Franco’s 31 starts at center back, Atlanta has signed Luis Abrams from Granada, though he only has one appearance off the bench for 11 minutes. Abrams spent the past 2 seasons on loan at Cruz Azul in Liga MX, making 25 appearances (18 starts).

In reality, Abram isn’t the one who will be replacing Franco; Juan José Sánchez and Miles Robinson will. Sánchez is in his 2nd year with Atlanta, having joined from UANL in Liga MX. He made 17 appearances (16 starts) last year and scored an amazing 6 goals. Considering those are the only goals of his 6 season career, I don’t know that I would expect a repeat of them. Robinson is in his 7th season with the club, having made 98 appearances (87 starts). He only got into 9 games (8 starts) last season after having 26 appearances in 2021 due to an Achilles tendon injury. Thankfully, he appears to have fully recovered from that injury.

Robinson is a good passer from the back (82nd percentile for passes completed, 95th percentile for progressive passes, and 73rd percentile for key passes). He’s not a great long-range passer (45th percentile for long passes completed), but he also doesn’t attempt that many of them (46th percentile for long passes attempted). Defensively, he’s tough to get around (93rd percentile for challenges lost) and has good positioning (99th percentile for blocks, 82nd percentile for shots blocked, 98th percentile for passes blocked). Sánchez is just an average passer but shows a similar ability to read the game (88th percentile for blocks, 63rd percentile for shots blocked, 92nd percentile for passes blocked). Neither is overly threatening in the air (Robinson: 68th percentile of aerials won; Sánchez: 77th percentile in aerials won), but both are serviceable.

Abram looks like a stereotypical depth (probably 4th choice) center-back. Nothing jumps out in his percentiles (in his case being compared to 2022/23 Liga MX CBs) except that he’s terrible in the air (1st percentile for aerials won).

The other defender in this center-back equation is George Campbell. The 21-year-old American has yet to appear in a game this year, but got into 35 over the past 2 seasons, including 20 appearances last year. While he’s mainly been deployed as a CB, he has had a couple of games in the midfield (in a pinch). To me, he would appear to be their 3rd choice with Abram as depth.

Atlanta has some really good and interesting pieces at fullback. The two starters are Andrew Gutman and Brooks Lennon, while Aiden McFadden (0 appearances this year, 11 last year) and Ronald Hernández (0 appearances this year, 13 last year) provide depth.

Gutman and Lennon are the kinds of fullbacks Charlotte fans are clamoring for, but not the types that I think Lattanzio is looking for. Just look at these maps:

Gutman heatmap 2022

Lennon heatmap 2022

My god, is Lennon even a fullback or just another winger? The answer is winger, as Araújo very much likes to come inside. These types of bombarding fullbacks are what I think most fans expect to see, but as I talked about on Twitter, that’s not what CL is looking for (these are decently long threads there, so check out the full things if you have interest).

To add some context to the Mora/Afful/Bronico LB debate. Let's look at some heatmaps. 🧵
— The Crown Cast (@The_CrownCast) March 6, 2023

If Bronico is a LB that moves into the midfield when in possession, all of a sudden Westwood isn’t only CDM. Discussed this possibility yesterday with @Stillness_Speed who talked about how last year we created a box midfield at times under CL, but haven’t done so yet this year
— The Crown Cast (@The_CrownCast) March 7, 2023

Last year was Gutman’s first in Atlanta. He made 25 appearances (22 starts), scoring 4 times and getting 1 assist. Fun fact: Gutman began his professional career with Charlotte in the USL Championship back in 2019.

Lennon is in his 4th season with Atlanta, making 82 appearances (73 starts) during this time. He has 4 goals and 14 assists for Atlanta, including a 2-goal, 6-assist season last year.

These guys both like to get down the sidelines. Coupled with Rossetto and Almada’s passing ability, it makes for dangerous situations. Atlanta is currently leading the league in possession at 63.5%. With the way they push these fullbacks up, that’s no surprise. If they don’t have the ball, they’re at serious risk of the counter. Charlotte is going to need to be smart, decisive, and quick with the ball when in transition.

Goalkeeping

Old–and I use that term literally–friend Brad Guzan continues to man the sticks for Atlanta. Behind him is his geriatric companion Quentin Westberg (36), who was acquired for free from Toronto. Clément Diop, 29, was also acquired on a free from New England. Diop never appeared for NE last year and made just 3 appearances for Miami. Westberg, meanwhile, made 10 appearances for Toronto in each of the past 2 seasons. He did play a few games in the French Ligue 2 (13 starts for Auxerre in 2018-19 being the most), so, as a backup, he’s not a terrible option.

Guzan is obviously meant to be the starter. Like Robinson above, Guzan ruptured his Achilles last year, missing most of the year (he only had 7 starts last year). Now in his 7th season with Atlanta United, the former Aston Villa keeper is…okay.

The raw numbers still look decent: 1.32 goals allowed/90 (GA90) in 2022; 1.00 GA90 in 2021; 1.30 GA90 in 2020; 1.26 GA90 in 2019. The advanced metrics aren’t so kind. Over these 5 years, he’s had 2 seasons in the positive: 2019 when his PSxG+/- was +0.4, and 2021 when it was legitimately good at +4.9. Otherwise, he’s been in the negative including years of -1.9 (2020), -1.1 (2022), and -0.5 so far this year. Now, he’s not terrible by any stretch but he’s a 38-year-old goalkeeper. A decline is normal and to be expected. On a good team, he’s still a fine option.

Where he does still excel is in his reading of the game. Fair warning that due to his injury, last year’s percentile ranks do constitute a small sample size. With that said, he was in the 62nd percentile of crosses faced, but the 96th percentile for crosses stopped and the 99th percentile for crosses stopped percentage. This shouldn’t worry us Charlotte fans at all since our crossing is so terrible that we weren’t going to score that route anyway.

Conclusion

Saturday is not a game that has me confident. Almada is so much better than I thought. On paper, Ibarra and Rossetto form a perfectly complimentary midfield pivot. Araújo is good on the right wing. Both their fullbacks are really good going forward. They dominate possession. They haven’t even started Etienne or Giakoumakis yet. In some ways getting them right now might be a slightly good thing, as Giakoumakis might still not be ready to start for them. On the other hand, I’m not sure how much it’s going to matter.

Against San Jose, Atlanta had 20 shots with 5 shots on goal. Against Toronto, they had 16 shots with 6 shots on goal. That’s 36 shots and 11 shots on goal in two games. Charlotte is at 21 shots and 8 shots on goal for their 2 games. Atlanta dominated possession in each of these games (60.4% against SJ, 66.7% against TOR). Against Toronto, they made 619 passes with a 90% passing accuracy. I’m going to say that again: 90% passing accuracy on 619 passes.

Let’s also not forget that they’ve only allowed 2 goals on the season. San Jose scored 52 goals last year (10th in the league), while Toronto scored 48 (13th in the league). These are not slouches on offense. Yes, Toronto was missing Insigne, which can’t be ignored, but the game plan of Atlanta seems clear. Dominate possession, pass the ball around, and let the attackers eventually win.

I was much more pessimistic about this game when Rossetto was going to play (though I can’t say I’m optimistic…). First, I do believe he’s a good player, especially for the system they are playing, regardless of what Atlanta fans have told me. Second, it seems that they will not just be plugging Sejdić into the system in his place. In Jones’ tweet, he mentions that ATL’s coach Pineda said they are not “set up for two 6s” without Rossetto. This would indicate to me that Rossetto’s absence might also necessitate a change in formation/tactics. If so, it’s always a good thing to me when a team is forced off of their first choice gameplan.

On the Charlotte side of things, Lattanzio has come out and said that the Bronico experiment at LB will continue.

Lattanzio said Bronico at left back is not a one week experiment. Expect to see him there again.
— Carroll R. Walton (@CarrollRogers) March 9, 2023

This is good news to me. I’m hoping we see some tactical complexity come into the squad as he learns the role. For this week, it’ll be a tough challenge for him. Atlanta is a good attacking team.

I don’t expect many changes to the team we saw against St. Louis, though I am hoping for 2.

First, I need Świderski to be back in the middle of the pitch. RW did not work for him. On that wing, I do think I would give Vargas the start. He’s looked so bright to start this season; it feels deserved. While I do want Nuno to start, I’m not sure CL is there yet. A midfield of Świderski-Westwood-DJ is the next best option.

I expect Malanda and Tuiloma to bounce back from their mistakes against STL. That bad pass is the only time I can remember Malanda putting a foot wrong. Tuiloma was unlucky, as he did everything but the timing of his jump correctly. The big piece in the backline is Byrne at RB. He was so good last year in his first appearances for the club. This team needs him to get back to that level. We can’t be trying to figure out both fullback positions at the same time.

Prediction: Charlotte 1 – Atlanta 2

Data Notes: All heatmaps come from Sofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come from FBref.com. All formation graphics are from MLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us, Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com.

The 2023 St. Louis Preview

On Saturday, Charlotte travels to the new kids on the block: St. Louis City SC. The coverage around STL has frustrated a lot of Charlotte fans; there seems to have been a much more positive narrative around them than us. You can even look at Fox Soccer’s (now deleted) Tweet that simply ignores the existence of Charlotte.

Personally, I don’t care that much. St. Louis can be the darlings of the media (even if I’m not quite sure that is completely true). What does intrigue me is the fact that STLCSC (too many letters) just beat last year’s Western Conference Semi-Finalists on the road.

Now, their win did include this bizarre goal:

Stroud back in Austin 😏 pic.twitter.com/uRlAQNE7ch
— St Louis CITY SC (@stlCITYsc) February 26, 2023

The scorer of this goal–Jared Stroud–was on Austin FC last year. Kipp Keller, the Austin defender in the clip, passes it back to him, out of what appears to be sheer muscle memory. This takes absolutely nothing away from their win–a goal is a goal. But man is this a bizarre thing to see.

In fact, the winner is a really good (mostly) individual goal.

Really, really impressive debut match in MLS for St. Louis City, beating last year’s Western Conference finalists Austin FC 3-2 away from home.

Here’s the winner from Klauss.

pic.twitter.com/cy2jb3W0Ax
— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) February 26, 2023

The clip makes it kind of hard to see, but the penultimate pass was really good, while the timing of the run and the individual skill that followed were excellent. The goalscorer for the winner was Klauss, STL’s Brazilian DP (full name: João Klauss de Melo).

There’s obviously not much game tape or stats to be had on STL yet, so we’ll be looking at some of their big names, big signings, and the Austin game.

Austin Game

STLCSC Starting XI at. Austin FC, 2/25/23

According to the official MLS site, STL was in a 4-2-3-1 for the entire game. Based on this sole game, I shall make the bold claim that’s the formation they play.

In many ways, St. Louis was outplayed. Here’s a brief look at the stats from the game.

Game stats STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23

Austin dominated possession, they had 150 more passes, and they had a 10% higher pass accuracy. What they didn’t do, though, was turn that possession into meaningful attacks (seems familiar, eh, Charlotte fans?). St. Louis outshot Austin, both in terms of total shots and shots on goal. While Austin was clinical in their finishing (2 goals from 2 shots on goal), they didn’t do much else.

xG Chart: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23

The xG for this game is eerily similar. Now, technically, St. Louis outproduced Austin by 0.5 xG, but remember that back pass to an opponent that led to a goal? Yeah, that had an xG of 0.49. Without that mistake, St. Louis probably doesn’t win this game.

Now, of all their (many) shots, and aside from the actual goals, STL isn’t taking good shots. The xG on their goals is as follows:

Parker: 0.14 xG
Stroud: 0.49 xG
Klauss: 0.22 xG

Aside from those 3 shots, only two other shots–a shot from Rasmus Alm with an xG of 0.30 in the 44th minute and a shot from John Vincent Nelson with an xG of 0.18 in the 74th minute–had an xG higher than 0.09. Most of these shots were actually incredibly low (0.01-0.05 xG). St. Louis got off a lot of shots, and that seems to be a philosophical strategy, but they weren’t very good ones.

Shot Map: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23

Charlotte was a bit vulnerable last year with shots in central areas just outside the box, so the fact STL isn’t scared to do that might be a problem. With that said, if a team’s primary method of scoring is to get goals from outside the box, they won’t be successful in the long term (not saying this is STL’s actual plan, by the way).

Passing Network: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23

The fact that #19, midfielder Indiana Vassilev, is basically disconnected from the entire team is fascinating. St. Louis doesn’t do much in the midfield. Off this one game, they seem to build through wide areas. For reference, here was Charlotte’s passing network from our opener.

Passing Network: CLT vs. NE, 2/25/23

In general, Charlotte’s passing network is something I plan to keep an eye on this year (also note how there is zero connection between Tuiloma and Mora), but it’s very different from St. Louis. Charlotte looked to maintain possession and build through their midfield (#8: Westwood, #13: Bronico).

The left side was targeted by STL against Austin. It remains to be seen if that was due to perceived deficiencies in Austin or if that’s the side St. Louis will look to build through. Looking at the players they have brought in (more on them later), I tend to think it’s the latter. Byrne and Malanda should take notice.

Looking at this game, Austin made a really costly mistake, didn’t take advantage of their possession, and St. Louis capitalized. I’m not sure Austin deserved to lose, but I don’t think this is a case where St. Louis didn’t deserve a win either. There is some luck involved, but overall, if you can go on the road to a good team and win while scoring 3, you deserve the 3 points.

Roman Bürki

St. Louis’ goalkeeper, Roman Bürki, is probably the biggest name on St. Louis’ roster. The former Borussia Dortmund keeper had a lot of success with Dortmund, but isn’t an otherworldly shot-stopper (as some in the media would have you believe). Bürki ended his Dortmund career with a 69.8% save percentage and 1.24 goals allowed/90.

PSxG+/- only goes back to the 2017-18 season. That year he had a +2.5 PSxG+/-, which is the only year it’s been positive. In 2018-19 he was at -1.0, in 2019-20 he was at -2.5, in 2020-21 he was at -1.6, and in 2021-22 he was at 0.0 (he had only 1 game this season).

In his last meaningful season with Dortmund (2020-21), he made 19 appearances (18 starts). The scouting report…isn’t great…

What is most troubling to me is that he’s not actually facing a ton of shots, but he’s allowing a decent number of goals. As someone who doesn’t follow Dortmund or the German Bundesliga closely, I can’t tell you if this was a result of poor play on his part or on Dortmund’s. Dortmund did finish 3rd that season, so it’s not like they were bad. Moreover, his 1.62 goals allowed per 90 was by far the highest of his career with the German club.

2015-16: 1.03 GA90 (33 games)
2016-17: 1.07 GA90 (27 games)
2017-18: 1.30 GA90 (33 games)
2018-19: 1.25 GA90 (32 games)
2019-20: 1.30 GA90 (31 games)
2020-21: 1.62 GA90 (19 games)

The trend is obviously not very good (i.e., the overall increase in GA90 then an explosion in 2020-21). However, goalkeeping and goals allowed are dependent on more factors than just a goalkeeper’s ability. Regardless, there does seem to be a decline.

For context, Dortmund’s new keeper, Gregor Kobel, had a 1.37 GA90 in 2021-22 (his first season as the starter). He currently has a 1.06 GA90 in 18 games this year.

Editor’s note: big thank you to @_Pancake_Papi for his fan perspective on Bürki. His thoughts mainly backed up the data that Bürki was good but, by the end of his time with Dortmund, fans felt it was time to move on. I imagine most of you already follow him on Twitter, but if you don’t, you absolutely should!

Klauss

Klauss is a 26-year-old DP for St. Louis. He began his career in the Brazilian youth ranks (Internacional, Juventude, Grêmio) before moving to 1899 Hoffenheim in 2017.

In 2018, he was sent on loan to HJK in the Finnish first division. He made 33 appearances (28 starts), scoring 21 goals and getting 1 assist. 3 of those goals were PKs, but 18 goals as a 20-year-old is still noteworthy.

Klauss’ next loan stop was LASK in the Austrian Bundesliga. He would spend two seasons (2018-19, 2019-20) with LASK, making 42 appearances (27 starts). He had 3 goals and 0 assists his first season (in 14 appearances), before rebounding for 12 goals (1 PK) and 4 assists in his 2nd season (28 appearances).

In the 2020-21 season, he finally made an appearance for Hoffenheim’s first team, but it would be the first of very few. In total, he made 4 appearances (51 total minutes) for Hoffenheim and failed to record a goal or assist. He spent the rest of the 2020-21 season on loan at Standard Liège in the Belgian First Division, making 13 appearances (10 starts) and getting 8 goal contributions (5 goals, 3 assists). He remained with Standard Liège for the 2021-22 season, making 19 appearances (15 starts) but scoring only once.

At some point during the 2021-22 season, his loan with Standard ended and he was loaned out to Sint-Truiden in the Belgian First Division. He would make 8 appearances (3 starts) for Sint-Truiden, scoring twice.

Klauss heatmap in the Belgian First Division

Klauss heatmap from MLS

As we can see from his heatmaps, Klauss is a pure center forward. There is a bit of a left-sided bias, but it’s not much. He’s a player who wants to stay central. At 6’2.5″ and 181 lbs, he makes for a physical player.

He’s an odd player to me. I’m not sure the scoring consistency is exactly what you would expect from a DP #9. For reference, his best two goalscoring seasons beat or tie Karol Świderski’s best season (12 goals in 2018-19), but Karol is consistently in the 10-goal-a-season range. Klauss’ production is…erratic.

Playing time can usually be looked at in cases like these, but he’s consistently gotten playing time at every stop–it just hasn’t always worked out. The difference in his two seasons at Standard Liège highlights this.

With that said, he’s hit the ground running with St. Louis. I’m curious to see which striker St. Louis ends up with. Will it be the “HJK-2nd-season-LASK-1st-season-Standard-Liège-Klauss?” If so, it’s a really good move.

Eduard Löwen

Löwen is St. Louis’ second DP that they’ve brought over from a German club. Like Klauss, Löwen is 26. Unlike Klauss, Löwen has a decent amount of experience playing in a top league.

Löwen began his career with Nürnberg in the German 2. Bundesliga. He made 65 appearances (52 starts) for Nürnberg over 3 seasons (2016-2019). In his final season with Nürnberg, they were in the Bundesliga (though they would finish 18th and be relegated). He scored 8 goals and had 7 assists during his time with the club, including a 5-goal, 4-assist season in 2017-2018.

He was loaned out to Augsburg during the 2019-20 season, before moving to Hertha Berlin that same season. In the 2019-20 season, he would make 23 appearances (9 starts) for Augsburg and Hertha. He had 2 goals and 1 assist for Augsburg, but failed to score or assist for Hertha. In 2020-21, he would only make 7 appearances (1 start) for Hertha and, again, failed to score or assist.

In 2021-22, he joined Bochum on loan, making 26 appearances (15 starts). He scored 2 goals (1 PK) and had 2 assists.

Like Klauss, this seems a player that showed potential before fizzling out a bit. Brought in by St. Louis to be a playmaker–like Klauss–he has gotten off to a good start, as he already has an assist.

Let’s take a look at some heatmaps (they go in reverse chronological order):

Löwen heatmap for 2023 MLS

Löwen heatmap for 2021-22 with Bochum

Löwen heatmap from 2019-20 with Ausburg and Hertha Berlin

Löwen heatmap for 2018-19 with Nürnberg

Löwen heatmap for 2017-18 with Nürnberg

Two things interest me about these heatmaps.

First, there isn’t a ton of consistency with them. The one consistent aspect of them is that there is a left-sided bias, except for the 2018-19 season when that bias is shifted towards the right (although he is all over the pitch). In 2019-20, it looks like he was mostly playing as a left-sided central midfielder.

Second, his most productive season, at least from a goal-contribution perspective, was 2017-18 when he was playing his deepest. Now, that is the year that Nürnberg earned promotion to the Bundesliga, finishing 2nd in the 2. Bundesliga. Perhaps that explains the production (i.e., he played for one of the best teams in that particular league). The second-best year for goal contribution was the next year, though, when Nürnberg was newly promoted. He’s not as deep as the 2017-18 season, but he’s further back than he will be in the subsequent years.

It appears that St. Louis is reverting him back somewhat to his positioning from those days. Although he was given the #10 shirt, he started and played as part of the double pivot in their 4-2-3-1.

It didn’t necessarily work out for him in the Bundesliga, but he seems a talented player. Importantly, he has experience playing against top competition in that league, which should prove useful. He won’t be facing a Bayern Munich in MLS.

Further, while St. Louis isn’t expected to be great this year, he’s mostly played at lower-level clubs in a top division. Due to the nature of American soccer and the structure of MLS, there’s greater upward mobility for clubs. The chances of a Bochum or Nürnberg seriously competing in the Bundesliga are infinitesimal. The chances of St. Louis–or any other MLS team–being able to go from a bottom feeder to a contender in a few years is absolutely possible (if not always likely).

Overall, it seems a smart move to me and someone who provides great experience for a new club, while also being relatively young.

Conclusion

There aren’t many solid conclusions that can be made from the first game of a new club. They have had a better start than Charlotte did, that’s for sure, but I’m curious to see how they hold up.

There are a few other players of note who do interest me on them. Njabulo Boom is a 23-year-old South African who was brought over from Kaizer Chiefs in the South African Premier Division. He made 69 appearances (53 starts) for them over 5 seasons, with most of those coming in the last 3. He had 4 assists for them in 2021-22. He came off the bench in the first game, replacing Vassilev.

Speaking of Vassilev, there’s talent there. This is a guy who had time with Aston Villa (mostly their junior team) and a couple of other English clubs in the lower divisions of England. He’s had two stints with Inter Miami, making 45 appearances (20 starts) and scoring 5 goals. At only 22, there’s still a lot of time for him. I am a bit confused about St. Louis’ decision to start him as a DM when it appears he’s mostly been a wide or attacking midfielder, with a bit of central midfield thrown in. Based on that passing chart, I’m not sure this experiment worked. It is just one game though.

Lastly, Isak Jensen is their YDP. He didn’t make an appearance during the first game and only has 19 career appearances (5 starts) for SønderjyskE in the Danish Superliga. I’m not sure what the plan with him is, but as a YDP, you have to imagine the 20-year-old will feature at some point.

From a Charlotte perspective, I don’t think we have to be overly concerned. I’m not convinced Bürki is very good anymore. He’ll probably be better in MLS than he was his last few years with Dortmund, but I’m not sure I see him being a wall. An average MLS goalkeeper seems likely to me.

The fact that St. Louis was able to score so many goals in their debut game worries me since Charlotte still can’t score. With that said, we have a number of new pieces, especially in attack.

There were moments in the New England game where you could tell that the connection between different players just wasn’t there yet. Early in the first half, there was a sequence where Westwood attempted a pass to Enzo Copetti. Copetti clearly expected Westwood to play him into space behind the line, while Westwood expected Enzo to want the ball at his feet. In the end, a Revs’ defender intercepted the ball. As these players get more game time together, I expect these types of miscommunications to decrease.

In the opener, I walked away thinking that Mora had a good game. I’ve heard from a number of places online that I might have that wrong. The supporter’s section offers a lot, but it doesn’t always allow for great analytical viewing. I do maintain that even if he was caught out a bit defensively, two things are still true. One, CL likes his FBs to play a bit inverted and that may have contributed to his perceived (or real) lack of good defensive positioning. Two, he had some of the better crosses for this game. On a team that struggled as a whole to produce dangerous crosses, this shouldn’t be overlooked. He might not have been quite as good as I thought when viewing him live, but I think he might have had an above-average Joseph Mora performance.

Our friends over at the Charlotte Soccer Show brought up the idea of Jóźwiak at LB. It’s not something I’m necessarily against, especially as it looks like we’re not bringing in a new LB (fingers crossed reverse psychology works!). With that said, I’m not convinced.

Idea of Jóź to LB is interesting one, but not fully sold on it. He's a good defender for a winger, but I'm not sure how well that translates to LB. He's about 2.08 tkls/90. Best (defensive) LBs are about 1 tkl/90 higher. Lot goes into that. He doesn't have to be a *defensive* LB. https://t.co/82CYxgmudC
— The Crown Cast (@The_CrownCast) February 27, 2023

Our formation was listed as a 4-3-3, which confused me a bit. I’m still not sure Świderski can handle the #10 (though I have hope); I’m even less convinced he can be an #8.

I didn’t think he had a bad game overall, though his touch let him down a bit. The pass that led to the goal was absolutely atrocious and can’t be happening from one of our supposed leaders. I put 95% of that goal on Karol, though our tracking back did nothing to help matters. If you’re a masochist, go look back at that goal. At one point, there are 4 Charlotte players between 2 New England players and the goal. One of those NE players is Kessler, a CENTER BACK. Its…not good.

It was also interesting that when Shinyashiki came on, Andre didn’t go to the wings. Rather, Świderski did and, honestly, I thought Andre provided more through the middle of that game.

Aside from LB, the positions with the most questions over starters are the wings. The pitchforks are already out for Jóźwiak and Gaines. While I agree neither had a good game on Saturday, I think both deserve a few more games. This is especially true of Jóźwiak. I will also acknowledge that Vargas looked much better than either and he might be this year. I still want to see that kind of performance from him more consistently before I fully commit to it, but if that appearance was a new normal, then, yes, he should be starting.

In that same thread about Jóźwiak as a potential LB, I delve into Vargas’ numbers from last year. There isn’t much difference between the two and, in a number of categories, Jóźwiak outpaces him. Again, if the form he showed against NE is the new norm, then he must play.

To be honest, aside from maybe trying Afful out at LB (*shudder*), I wouldn’t change the lineup for St. Louis. I’d still have Jóźwiak and Gaines on the wings, with Vargas as the first off the bench for either if they’re struggling.

I would really like to see Nuno Santos get some time this weekend, though not on the wing. I’ve heard he played there over the preseason and maybe it can work. I just have my doubts. More importantly, I just get the feeling he’d be better in the middle of the park. No, I don’t know where he’d play in the midfield with our current players and formations.

I’m sure the atmosphere in St. Louis will be electric on Saturday, but I’m hopeful about this game. Let’s go spoil a party.

Prediction: St. Louis 1 – Charlotte 2

The 2023 New England Preview, Pt. 1

We are back!!!!!

After a few months away, Charlotte FC will finally be playing meaningful games back at the Bank. As Year Two rolls in, expectations amongst the fanbase are high. Nationally, the outlook is more mixed.

Many fans might be surprised by the relative lack of belief in this team. On average, we’re looking at these experts predicting a 10th-place finish for Charlotte (9.9167 repeating, to be exact). I personally think they could be a playoff team. My money is on them getting around 48 points, which would (historically) be good for about 7th or 8th place. Obviously, Andrew Wiebe is our new favorite media (sorry Bogert!).

Kljestan, Lowery, Ortiz, Slaton, and Bradley Wright-Philips’ 13th-place finish predictions all seem overly negative, at least to me, but it must be admitted that this is a team with some serious issues and question marks.

The acquisition of Bill Tuiloma does assuage some concerns I have regarding center-back, but left-back has not been touched. It remains a terrifying proposition to have Harrison Afful or Joseph Mora as our starter there for the entire season. Additionally, we will be starting the season without our #1 keeper in Kahlina, though there is an argument to be made that outside of his first 7-10 games, he wasn’t overly impressive. I’m not sure how many are ready to hear that, though.

Finally, Jóźwiak, Świderski, and Copetti represent 3 DPs with huge question marks. I’m a firm believer in Kamil and Karol, but I’m not sure either lived up to the billing of a DP. Well, we can actually be honest and say that Jóźwiak definitely didn’t. While the 10 goals and 4 assists were nice, you probably want a bit more from a DP #9 (or #10), in Karol’s case.

Enzo has me excited but this is a player with a limited (albeit good) track record, coming to a new league and country, returning from serious injury, and learning a new language. To say that he might need an adjustment period is an understatement. The unfortunate reality, though, is that he and Charlotte can’t afford an adjustment period. This team desperately needs goals and if it takes him a while to get off the mark, it probably won’t be a good thing for this club.

My previews usually consist of a look at the previous games for clubs, as well as their overall stats. With this being the first game of the season, those are not available. While I could look at last year’s formations and such (and I will to a degree), I think it might be more useful to look at who NE has added to this roster for the 2023 season.

Last year was a down one for New England. The 2021 record-setters found themselves finishing 10th in the East with 42 points (a 31-point decrease from 2021!), a -3 goal differential, and a -9.0 xG differential.

To me, their issues seem twofold. One, they had an aging roster. Two–and probably more important for last year’s team–they lost Adam Buksa midway through the year. The 25-year-old Polish striker had 7 goals and 2 assists in 10 games (9 starts) for them. Their leading goalscorer last year, Gustavo Bou, only had 8 goals and 2 assists in 19 games, while the 2nd top goal-getter, Carles Gil, had only 7 goals (but 9 assists!) in 33 games. No one else had more than 4. New England, like Charlotte, could not score.

Since last summer, NE has effectively secured 5 new players: CF Giacomo Vrioni (24), old Charlotte friend (?) Christain Makoun (22), CAM Latif Blessing (26), CF Bobby Wood (30), and CB Dave Romney (29). They made a few more moves during the summer of last season, but a number of those players (former Charlotte draftee Ismael Tajouri-Shradi among them!) are no longer with the club. These acquisitions haven’t necessarily done much to drastically reduce the age of this squad, but they have targeted a number of younger players. Three players in particular interest me: Vrioni, Blessing, and Romney. We’re all intimately familiar with the Makoun experience and Wood, now 30, has made enough appearances with USMNT to be familiar to most. Also, Wood has scored 6 total goals in the past 5 seasons, so I’m not sure how much we should care about him in general. This appears a pure depth move by NE.

(Fun Fact: Wood had 17 goals and 4 assists in 2015-16 for Union Berlin. For the rest of his career, which spans 12 seasons, he has 22 goals, along with 4 seasons of 0 goals. This man has started for the USMNT. Sigh…)

Giacomo Vrioni

Vrioni is DP who joined from Juventus last summer for $3.89M. Like Charlotte’s DPs, he’s mostly still an unknown.

He began his career with Sampdoria, though he never made an appearance. He would go on to play for Venezia in Serie B (2018-19), where he made 24 appearances but only had 1 goal and 1 assist. In 2019-20, he had appearances for Cittadella in Serie B (4 apps, 1 assist, 0 goals) and Juventus (1 appearance, 0 goals, 0 assists). He was on loan last year with WSG Tirol in the Austrian Bundesliga, where he made 25 appearances (20 starts) and had 20 goal contributions (17 goals and 3 assists), according to FBref. Wyscout does have him at 19 goals and 4 assists for these appearances. Transfermarkt has him at 17 goals but 4 assists, while SofaScore has him at 17 goals and 3 assists. I’m not quite sure why there is this discrepancy, but it appears that Wyscout is giving him 2 more goals than he should have. Of his goals this season, 3 were PKs. His move to NE produced 7 appearances (2 starts) but only 1 goal (a PK).

When scoring, he is predominately a left-footer. Note: I’m using Wyscout’s 19 goal total for this because they have a handy breakdown of how he scored (left foot, right foot, head). Keep in mind the goal discrepancy they have (i.e., 2 more than other sources).

Left foot: 10
Right foot: 3
Head: 5

It should also be remembered that he had 3 penalties and, as he’s a left-footer, those inflate his total a bit for that side. Still, he’s a tall man who scores how you would expect: with his primary foot or head.

Listed at 6’2″ and 172 lbs, Vrioni is in the mold of Buksa (who is 6’3″ and 172 lbs). NE obviously sees Vrioni as Buksa’s long-term replacement, but the question remains can he be? While his year in Austria was hugely successful, so far it has been a fluke of a season. For NE to be successful, his Austrian-league form needs to be his new norm.

This heatmap shows a prototypical center-forward. There isn’t much happening on the wings, but anything down the center includes his involvement. His movement will test Malanda, and whoever is paired with him.

Latif Blessing

Blessing is a really interesting player. He was briefly linked to Charlotte during the summer transfer window and, honestly, he’s a player that would probably do well on this team.

Blessing is diminutive, listed at only 5’4.5″ and 141 lbs. He started his career with Sporting KC, where he made 25 appearances in 2017, scoring 3 goals and getting 1 assist. He was drafted by LAFC in 2018 and exploded with them over the next two seasons. In 2018, he got 5 goals and 6 assists in 30 appearances (18 starts). He followed that up with a 6-goal, 3-assist season in 34 appearances (29 starts).

Then the past 3 seasons have happened.

2020: 21 appearances, 18 starts, 1 goal, 2 assists
2021: 30 appearances, 25 starts, 2 goals, 2 assists
2022: 30 appearances, 16 starts, 0 goals, 1 assist

So what has happened to Blessing? It appears to be positioning.

Positioning can make a huge difference for players. This is not groundbreaking but it can be overlooked. Positional changes can help account for the emergence of players such as Hany Muktar, Luciano Acosta, and Cucho. My first thought was this was the case with Blessing.

Here’s a bunch of heatmaps!

These are no help, at least initially.

In his first two seasons with LAFC, which, remember, are his most productive from a goal-contribution standpoint, it appears they played him in a more attacking role, both based on his heatmaps and positional designations.

2018: it appears that he’s playing as a winger. This is backed up by his positional designations on FBref (mostly LW/LM and RW/RM).
2019: he’s all over the park with his heatmap. FBref has him listed as anything from a LM to a RW to CM to RB, so this makes sense. In multiple games, FBref has him playing as a LM/LW and RB in the same game.

For both of these years, his positional designations and heatmaps correspond with his goal and assist output. Then things change.

2020: his heatmap has him as a right-sided player, which is backed up by designations on FBref of mostly RM and RB (with some CM thrown in).
2021: his heatmap finds him similarly deployed, but he’s back on the left a bit more too. Again, he’s listed a lot as a RM or RB, but now there’s a lot more CM thrown in, which explains the encroachment into the left side of the park without him actually being formally deployed there too often.
2022: last year’s heatmap has him all over the pitch again, but the designations remain mostly RM and CM.

So where does that leave us with Blessing? To me, first and foremost he has proved to be an incredibly flexible player. I love players who can do jobs all over the pitch and blessing appears to do that. Again, he’s a player that Charlotte could use. With that said, oftentimes a player who has positional flexibility has it because he can’t nail down one position. In general, I don’t think Blessings’ decrease in goal contributions is related to a decrease in skill. Rather, I think it has to do with LAFC progressively moving him farther back on the pitch.

This then leads us to the question of how will NE use him? One indication is if we look at how they designate him. If you look on FBref, you will find Blessing listed as a “FW-MF (CM-WM).” Transfermarkt has him listed as a “midfield-Attacking Midfield.” SofaScore has him as a “M” (for midfielder). The Revs, though, are listing him as a forward. This would indicate to me that they plan on having him revert to a role more similar to his first two years–and especially his first year–in LA.

When looking at the composition of their team, this would make sense. Below is the heatmap for their great CAM, Carles Gil.

Blessing isn’t going to be a CAM for NE and I wouldn’t think they’d pair these two in the midfield either. Gil is only listed at 5’6.5″ and 150 lbs. That would be an incredibly tiny midfield. Pushing Blessing to the wing would make more sense. Additionally, NE employs a really good RB in Brandon Bye (2 goals, 7 assists last year). Finally, against Chicago for the last game of the year, NE had Nacho Gil as their starting RW. Nacho Gil is no longer on NE (in fact, he’s currently without a club). Blessing could see time on the left wing, too. It appears Bou started there in the 2022 finale, though. All signs point to Blessing being their new right-sided forward.

Editor’s Note: Apparently NE did resign Nacho Gil. Transfermarkt’s transfer page for NE had him listed as “Without Club,” which threw Josh off. He was resigned by them in January. However, he is listed in the injury report so unclear if he’ll factor in the game.

For what it’s worth, MLS’s official site’s preview of NE has them in a 4-4-2 diamond, with Bou as a 2nd striker to Vrioni and Blessing as a right midfielder in the diamond. This is obviously a very possible formation, but according to FBref, NE was almost exclusively a 4-3-2-1 team last year. Whatever the formation, my gut tells me they’ll be looking to push Blessing higher up the pitch on the right side. This move has been a bit under the radar, but I think it’s a really good one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Blessing back up to 5-7 goals and 4-6 assists this season.

Dave Romney

Romney is a veteran of MLS. He began his career with the LA Galaxy, making 84 appearances (69 starts) for them over 5 seasons. He joined Nashville in 2020 and became a mainstay. In 3 years with Nashville, he made 87 appearances with 86 starts!

Romney will chip in the odd goal (3 goals last year, 9 for his career). More impressively for a center-back, though, he will chip in assists. He has 11 career assists, including 5 over the past 3 seasons. At 29, he’s still in his prime as a defender and, having played the last few seasons for a notoriously defensive-minded side, he’s a good addition for NE. He’ll be paired with Henry Kessler, who is a bit of a forgotten man. Kessler was very good for NE in 2021, but last year he was coming back from injury. It doesn’t appear that he ever really got back to full form last year. Now a year removed from injury, this CB-pairing has the potential to be one of the best in the league.

Romney defense, passing, and miscellaneous percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CBs

As we can see, Romney is quite good against dribblers when pressed into it, but doesn’t appear to be a front-footed defender. It should always be noted that defensive metrics are never as telling as offensive ones and CBs are often products of their team’s scheme. Regardless, it should make for an interesting matchup between him and Vargas or Gaines (I’m assuming).

His passing is middle of the road for a CB, but the rate at which he crosses into the penalty area is interesting. Kessler’s passing ability is very good, which should help make up for Romney’s lack of range.

Finally, Romney is good at aerials. Kessler isn’t terrible (46th percentile for % of aerials won) in the air, but NE probably wanted to find someone to bolster this area. Like with most great CB pairings, it’s not about each partner doing everything well; it’s about the balance between the partners. On paper, Romney and Kessler appear to balance each other out very well.

There are a few other players that should be highlighted for New England.

First, I haven’t touched on Gil, but he really is an amazing player. I know he rubs a lot of Charlotte, and MLS, fans wrong because of his reputation for being a bit dive-y. I’ll admit, I don’t really see that in him (or at least not any more so than other players). At 5’6.5″, he’s not a big guy, so going down under challenges is probably to be expected. Regardless of how you feel about him, here are his stats since he’s joined the Revolution:

2019: 34 appearances, 34 starts, 10 goals (4 PKs), 12 assists
2020: 6 appearances, 4 starts, 0 goals, 1 assist (injured for most of the year)
2021: 28 appearances, 24 starts, 4 goals (1 PK), 11 assists
2022: 33 appearances, 32 starts, 7 goals (3 PKs), 9 assists

Yes, the PKs do inflate his goal numbers quite a bit, but he’s not a striker. As such, PK inflation doesn’t bother me as much with him as it would with a #9. These assist numbers are also from FBref, as–say it together–soccer should not have hockey assists (looking at you, MLS official stats). It’s difficult to understate how good Gil is at getting the ball to his teammates. NE scored a total of 47 goals last year, meaning that he provided the assist on almost 20% of them (19%, to be exact). With better forward play throughout the year, he probably hits double digits again. The Revolution goes as Gil does. I’d be tempted to man-mark him.

In goal, NE keeps finding talent. Having sold Matt Turner to Arsenal, one would expect their goalkeeping to become a weakness. Instead, they inserted a 22-year-old Đorđe Petrović into goal and he instantly became a top 5 MLS keeper, at least. There are even rumors of Manchester United keeping close tabs on him.

Petrović made 21 starts last year, allowing 27 goals, having an 82.7% save rate, and keeping 7 clean sheets. He had an outrageous +13.1 PSxG+/-, which was good for 1st in the league. He did have 13 fewer games than Andre Blake of Philadelphia, who for my money is easily the best keeper in MLS. Blake was 2nd in MLS in PSxG+/- at +10.0. Petrović’s PSxG+/- was double that of 3rd place Dayne St. Claire (+6.9). For further reference, Kahlina ended the season with a -3.6 PSxG+/-, good for 54th in the league! Yes, that ranking obviously includes keepers who only made 1 or 2 starts, but, again, we might have a goalkeeper issue. Topic for another day…By the way, Gaga Slonina, who Chelsea paid an estimated $15M for, had a -0.5 PSxG+/- in 32 games. Yes, Slonina is 4 years younger than Petrović, but we might all have been paying a bit too much attention to the wrong young goalkeeper.

The biggest thing that jumps out to me about Petrović is his ability against crosses. He was in the 67th percentile for crosses faced, 89th percentile for crosses stopped, and 89th percentile for crosses stopped percentage. Plan A should not be to jump lump the ball into the area.

It’ll be interesting to see if Petrović can keep this pace up. If so, two things will be true. 1) We will have a new best goalkeeper in MLS and 2) He will quickly not be in MLS (therefore reverting back to us having the same best goalkeeper).

New England is a tough team to face first. Having played them last season with Buksa, we at least face a worse striker, but they continue to employ one of the best creators in the league (Gil), one of the best goalkeepers (Petrović), have added a potentially dangerous winger (Blessing), and improved their defense (Romney).

There are a number of players I haven’t touched on either that can’t be ignored. Both of their fullbacks, Bye and DeJuan Jones, are some of the better ones for this league. Matt Polster serves as a good midfield anchor, while Andrew Farrell is probably now the best 3rd CB in the league. Veterans such as Thomas McNamara, Jozy Altidore, Wood, and Omar Gonzalez provide good depth (if not the overall quality they each individually had).

Expectations for NE from their fans are probably playoffs, but I think they’re probably a similar team to Charlotte in that both have some holes, some question marks, and definite room for overall improvement. They seem like a team that will probably be fighting with Charlotte for that 6th-9th spot. As such, it’s an important game for us. Of course, if Vrioni makes a jump and Blessing reverts back to his 2018 and 2019 form, coupled with Gil, they could finish higher.

For Charlotte, my worry comes in defense. Up top, I expect a front 4 of Jóźwiak-Copetti-Gaines-Świderski. I can actually see that being a very potent lineup. The biggest question of that group is probably whether it will be Gaines or Vargas. I’ve said it before, Vargas right now is what people think Gaines is. Vargas has a higher ceiling, to be sure, and needs plenty of playing time this year. Right now, though, Gaines is the better player and should be starting.

(Note: Justin did bring up on the preview pod this Wednesday that Vargas’ delivery has looked better in the preseason. As I said on the pod, 1) I don’t really put too much stock into the preseason and 2) wasn’t able to see any of those games. If he has truly improved his delivery, the difference between Gaines and him–which already isn’t very big–becomes even smaller and the argument for him to be starting becomes more justified.)

In the midfield, I expect to see Westwood and Bronico. I’m a big fan of Nuno Santos and I expect him to find his way into the starting lineup. There are rumors of him being deployed on the right side, which might not be the worst thing. We’ve seen so little of him that I’m not sure how he would fair out there. His small-sample size numbers indicate a player that wants to be and should be on the ball a lot. I’m not sure that happens on the outside. Plus, I do believe Lattanzio values pace from wingers. I honestly don’t know if Nuno has that kind of pace; I know Vargas and Gaines do.

In goal, I expect to see Sisniega. I know there has been a “competition” between him and Marks, but the fact that Sisniega was the one to start games last year tells me he has the leg up in this. Plus, he has the size of a real goalkeeper.

The real issues come in the backline. Barring a setback in health, our star boy Malanda should start alongside Nathan Byrne. The left side is where there are a huge amount of question marks to be found.

It seems more and more likely that Harrison Afful will start at LB. It’s not a prospect that excites me. Derrick Jones has seen a lot of time at CB during the preseason, so there’s a chance he starts there for the opener. Personally, I’d much prefer us to throw Tuiloma into the lineup. He’s 27, has been in the league for 5 years, has 57 appearances for Portland over the past 2 years, and should be able to immediately play. We gave up a decent amount for him, so the plan can’t be for him to back up a midfielder pretending to be a CB.

At left back, Sobociński has gotten some time there this preseason. I don’t expect that to happen for this first game, nor do I expect our #1 overall pick, Diop, to play, but I’d prefer either option over Afful. Amazingly, I’d even prefer…gulp…Joseph Mora over Afful.

Prediction: Charlotte 2 – New England 1

Data Notes: All heatmaps come from Sofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come from FBref.com. Other websites used for data include: transfermarkt.us, Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com

Malanda: French for Good

When Charlotte made their summer signings, I was of the opinion that the least likely to provide a meaningful impact for us in 2022 was going to be Adilson Malanda. A 20-year-old CB coming from Ligue 2. Nah, he was going to ride the bench. I figured Nuno Santos would immediately play and Nathan Byrne would take over the RB spot. I was…wrong.

Unhappily, Guzman Corujo went down with injury in August. Initially, this thrust Jan Sobociński into the starting lineup, though his own injury woes would force him out. It then fell to the young Malanda to pair with Anton Walkes.

As a quick aside: Jan has been a forgotten man when it comes to this backline. Not even 24, he showed real flashes in his time on the pitch last year. Multiple injuries really derailed his season, but if he can shake the injury bug, I believe there is a real player in there.

I don’t think Walkes’ veteran presence should be overlooked when it comes to Malanda’s successful run of form. Malanda’s own ability carried him through his first games in MLS, but Walkes was a steadying presence for him.

Editor’s note: This post was written before Walkes’ death and already included this reference to Walkes and his veteran leadership. These were Josh’s thoughts before his passing and it feels even more appropriate to retain them in the post now.

It was and continues to be difficult not to be incredibly excited about Malanda’s potential. I’m very much a cautious individual when it comes to young players. While I prefer a talented young player over an aging vet (see: Jóźwiak vs. Reyna), I hesitate to believe in good performances too quickly. Young players tend to go through rough patches. The highs can be great but the lows can be as well.

Malanda will enter the 2023 MLS season as a 21-year-old CB with 6 games (in MLS) to his name. That is it. It is very likely–and even expected–that he will have a run of poor performances. Very few CBs his age start consistently at clubs and fewer still do so at a consistently high level. The ones that do are the elite of the elite. In my time watching soccer, only a few jump immediately to my mind: Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, and William Saliba (yes, Justin, Logan and I will mention him at every opportunity). These are obviously different players in much tougher leagues than MLS. They are also probably better players than Malanda will ever be (we’re talking about one of the best CBs ever in Silva, a CB who has been a starter for Roma and PSG since he was 18 in Marquinhos, and the young player of the year in France last year who has been a standout on the league-leading Arsenal). That is not a knock on Malanda, as he seems to have the potential to be a top CB in MLS, if not force his way back to Europe.

When looking at CBs, there are a few things I look for, aside from the ability to tackle.

He needs to be at least 6’0″. Yes, I am a height snob when it comes to CBs. I want them to be bullies and command the penalty area.
He needs to be able to progress the ball out from the back. This comes in the form of passing, but also dribbling ability. I don’t need a CB to be Neymar on the ball, but he should have the technical ability and on-ball confidence to turn a defender from time to time or take the space when it is given.
He needs to be able to chip in 3-5 goals per year.
He needs the pace to be able to recover. A CB is never going to win a footrace with the likes of Gaines, Ruan, or some of the other quicker players in the league. However, he needs to have enough pace to match up with 80% of the forwards in a league and the wherewithal to manage his limitations against the quicker players.

How does Malanda stack up with these “requirements”?

Quick note: I will be using FBref stats and their scouting report. We should take the scouting report percentages with a HUGE grain of salt. Malanda has 6 games in MLS. It’s an incredibly small sample size, however, I think it’s still worthwhile to see how he is stacking up so far. I expect these numbers to change over a full season–some probably drastically.

Height

First, he’s listed at 6’1″ on Charlotte’s site (though he’s listed half an inch shorter on FBref). Having seen him in person, this seems about right. He’s only 165 lbs and looks it. He’s spindly and wiry, but that doesn’t seem to stop him from being physical in games. I would probably like to see him add about 10 pounds of muscle, but there’s a balance between him doing that and potentially losing some of his pace/quickness.

On-ball Ability

Malanda can pass. When he was first signed, there wasn’t much information out there for him. I found this video and what jumped out to me was his confidence to make a pass and run with the ball.

As with any YouTube highlight video, there aren’t bad plays in here–but his ability to be calm on the ball, go around a player, and make a pass are all evident.

Malanda’s passing ability is already evident, but I don’t think we’ve seen its full impact. This is probably due to Lattanzio. I don’t mean this in a disparaging way either. I imagine CL wanted to have Malanda focus on defending and leave the penetrative distribution to others. For a young player coming to a new league in a new country with a new language, this all makes sense.

On the season, Malanda attempted 376 total passes, good for 62.7 attempts per 90. That was good for 4th on the team behind Santos (71.7 passes attempted/90), Afful (71.5 passes attempted/90), and Fuchs (70.3 passes attempted/90). Technically, Hegardt led the team with 120 passes attempted/90 (!!!) but he had 0.2 90s, so it’s hard to really count him. Even Santos is a bit iffy to count with this, as he only had 1.8 90s. Regardless, the point is that even if Malanda wasn’t meant to be a focal point of distribution, he saw a lot of the ball.

Note: some of Charlotte’s struggles offensively can probably be traced to the fact that our defenders lead the team in passes attempted per 90. Hegardt and Santos, as previously mentioned, are dubious to include in these rankings due to their overall lack of playing time. Even if you do include them, though, 9 of our top 11 players in this category were defenders. If you exclude them, Bronico is the only non-defender to break the top 10 (51.3 passes attempted/90). That is problematic and something that has to be changed in the coming season. It’s also one of the reasons I view Santos as such an important player moving forward. It’s a very small sample size, but those 71.7 passes attempted/90 are much needed. Westwood, if healthy, should also help.

Of his 376 passes, Malanda completed 326 of them (54.3 completed passes/90) at an 86.7% clip. Breaking it down even further, most of his passing came in the medium range (194 completed of 207 attempted, 93.7% completion percentage). He completed 93 of 97 short passes (95.9%). Where I’m most excited to see him evolve is in his long passing; he only attempted 63 long passes last year, completing 37 of them (58.7%). In the video above, there were numerous times when he would hit a long diagonal ball to the wing. That’s something I would like to see from him more this year.

Malanda Passing Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com

Malanda Passing Types vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com

For a then-20-year-old, this is outstanding. Compared with his central defender peers, Malanda is already a league leader in passing. His one area of improvement needs to be with key passes, but, again, he was 20! We can nitpick a few areas if we want, but when there is this much green, you just enjoy it (while also continuing to acknowledge the all-important small sample size).

Goal Contribution

Goals are never the most important stat for a CB, but the very best teams always seem to have a CB who chips in some goals. Malanda has never actually scored a goal in his professional career and has only 1 assist (last year for Charlotte). Thus, there’s nothing in his history that necessarily leads you to believe that he could contribute 3-5 goals per season. Yet, I think he will and it’s mostly due to one thing: his ability to time runs and jumps.

Logan was one of the first people I heard mention this, but Malanda has already shown an ability to get himself into good positions from corners. He crashes down into the box.

Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22

Malanda doesn’t score this, but his run and jump from deep are so well-timed. It causes confusion in the box, which allows Świderski to finish off the chance.

Charlotte vs. NYCFC, 9/10/22

This second one deserved a goal. It’s a fantastic ball in from Vargas and, again, Malanda’s run and jump are impeccable.

Of course, I would be remiss not to mention that the numbers don’t necessarily bear out his aerial ability. In fact, they show the opposite.

Malanda Miscellaneous Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com

Yikes. Those numbers are not great and show a definite area of improvement. I predict–and am confident that–further game experience will improve these numbers.

Pace

Malanda has shown the ability to recover and provide cover for teammates. In the Chicago game, the second goal comes from a good move by Chicago and poor decision-making by Malanda’s veteran teammates, Walkes and Afful.

Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22

When the ball is played, Malanda is on the halfway line and a few good yards behind the fullback making a run. He covers the ground exceptionally well, forcing #2 on Chicago to cut back. Unfortunately, no one but Malanda and Byrne has tracked back well on this play and Chicago gets a goal.

This next angle shows it even better.

Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22

In general, you don’t want a CB to have to go full-bore, as that usually means a mistake has been made somewhere else. It will happen, though, and it’s good to know that Malanda has the ability to catch up.

With only 6 games under his belt at the MLS level–and only 40 total for his career–it’s far too soon to say exactly what Adilson Malanda is. This discussion has also largely ignored his tackling ability, so let’s take a look.

Malanda Defensive Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com

There is clearly room for improvement. His relative lack of errors is encouraging, as is his ability against dribblers. Of course, that ability hasn’t been extensively tested. FBref has him in only 3 duels vs. dribblers. While his 100% success rate in these situations is good (you certainly want him at 100% and not 0%), there’s not a big enough sample to say that it will be predictive of his future ability.

It should be noted that defensive stats are notoriously fickle and, of all the advanced stats, the least fleshed out, in my opinion. That is not to excuse these numbers; Malanda will need to improve them if he is to reach the heights the beginning of his Charlotte career has hinted at. To be a true defensive stopper, you will want him to get stuck in a bit more and have success while doing it. With that said, I don’t think these numbers need to be overly concerning for us just yet due to the small sample and age.

It’s hard not to dream about Malanda’s future. It does look that bright. Charlotte’s first overall pick, Diop, also shows some of these same traits (ball carrying, passing, physical build). Even Jan fits in this mold. It seems Charlotte has a CB prototype in mind.

For the upcoming year, all Charlotte fans should be excited for a Malanda-Corujo pairing, provided Corujo comes back healthy. This is not a given; ACLs, while common, are not easy injuries to come back from. They take time and there are often setbacks (usually in the form of muscular strains). Don’t be surprised if it takes a few months to see the pre-injury Corujo. It could even take most of next year.

Once Corujo does get back, this pairing should really complement each other. I’ve long said that Corujo’s biggest weakness was his lack of distribution. This deficit should be covered by Malanda’s on-ball ability.

Malanda, meanwhile, is still learning how to tackle and defend at a high level. Corujo is an aggressive defender, which I know worries some. While his aggressiveness can cause issues, he is a really good tackler and defensive stopper (91st percentile in tackles and tackles won, 96th percentile in tackles in the defensive 3rd, 88th percentile in dribbles contested, 91st percentile in tackles plus clearances). His aggressiveness can get him caught out at times, but, again, I think Malanda’s pace and more balanced defending can help cover for that.

Center-back pairings often come down more to chemistry than talent. Yes, ability is important, but unless you have a generational talent (in which case, he’s not at Charlotte), you need to balance those abilities. I’m very optimistic about Malanda and Corujo doing just that. Even more than that, though, I’m confident in Malanda’s ability, regardless of the partner.