The 2023 Colorado Preview

There’s an interesting–if unsurprising–debate happening online right now about who should be playing for this club currently. Two trends I see:

  1. Enzo can’t play up top alone.
  2. Sobociński should be getting time over Tuiloma.

Both of these ideas confuse me.

First, this team hasn’t scored goals, yet Enzo has 2. Second, and a strong small sample size warning applies here, he’s played about how he should be expected to play. He was a Rios replacement who was supposed to bring the same aspects to the team that Rios did, but better. Well, I’d argue he’s probably meeting that. Here are some indicators for him when compared to other MLS forwards for 2023:

  • He’s in the 95th percentile for Average Shot Distance, meaning, he’s getting into excellent positions when he shoots.
  • He’s in the 70th percentile for Shots on Target % and Goals/Shots. He’s only in the 5th percentile for Shots Total, but I don’t think we can blame him for the dysfunction of our attack.
  • He’s in the 75th percentile for Progressive Passes Received, meaning, he’s consistently making himself available for forward passes from teammates.
  • He’s in the 75th percentile for Goals-xG, which means he’s outperforming his xG (which is a good thing considering this team’s struggles on the offensive side of the ball).

Are there areas where I’d like to see him improve? Sure. But Enzo is in the mold of a traditional striker. He’s also one that appears to be better in a more transition-based side, whereas CL wants possession.

Enzo hasn’t been perfect, but the frustration with him seems to come from his supposed “antics” (something I disagree with). This subjective anger at “antics” has bled into and created this idea of a “performance” issue. I really am not seeing that. To me he’s often been isolated up top, yet runs his a** off, holds up the ball decently, and seems to take chances when they infrequently come.

The Sobo over Tuiloma argument is even weirder to me. We have allowed a ton of goals this year and we have had numerous errors from defenders that have led to it (Tuiloma’s own goal and his bad back pass, Malanda’s bad back pass, Byrne’s bad back pass). We’ve allowed 4 goals, though. Those defensive errors are important, but they’re not the main reason that we’re allowing so many goals. It’s a team issue.

There is consistently loads of space between lines for opponents to exploit, both in terms of passing and positioning. Charlotte’s backline often has multiple attackers running at it, seemingly unopposed by anyone in the midfield. Our midfield has been porous and it’s coupled with CL’s usage of fullbacks, which allows space in behind. I believe in Sobo’s talent, but he’s not making a meaningful difference in this squad right now. We’re not talking prime van Dijk here. Frankly, I don’t believe he’s better than Tuiloma right now and I don’t think it’s particularly close.

To my eyes, Sobociński has struggled with the Legacy. How is that going to get better at the MLS-level? Sobo is talked about as if he’s this exceedingly young CB. He’s young at only 24, but at 24 Tuiloma was in his 2nd season with Portland and had made 37 total appearances with 30 starts. He made 57 appearances and 43 starts for Portland over the next 2 seasons. Sobociński has made 9 career MLS appearances with just 3 starts.

Yet, Sobo is talked about as if he must be played due to some great potential talent. I would argue Tuiloma is more talented, plus has MLS experience.

In my opinion, the real reason that people are calling for Tuiloma to be replaced has to do with:

  1. We’ve shipped a ton of goals this season, so the correlation equals causation fallacy comes into play and Tuiloma is taking that blame.
  2. His 2 mistakes led directly to goals.

Regarding those 2 errors, as I honestly think that’s what colors the opinion of most people about Tuiloma. Those errors should not be dismissed, but, again, I implore you to look at his process over the results. He did everything right in terms of reading the game and positioning in both of those goals; he failed at the end with his execution. That is a problem! You need a defender that will reliably make the play in the big moments. Determining whether a player is reliable requires more than 6 games. The fact that he is closing in on 100 career MLS starts is more important to me right now than his 6 just with Charlotte.

The bottom line is we’re close to the point of “play the kids” but we’re not there yet. Inter Miami started last year with 7 points through their first 7 games (a draw, 4 consecutive losses, and then 2 wins). We are behind that pace, but not in an inconceivable way. Are we likely to make the playoffs based on current form and history? No. But it’s not quite time to throw in the towel.

Finally, I’m going to continue saying this until I’m blue in the face: Christian Lattanzio is NOT going to play a 4-4-2 or any other variation that puts 2 at the top. The only way this becomes a realistic possibility is if we actually see him do it, and we’ve never seen it. Please, I’m begging Charlotte fans to stop having this conversation. It’s tiring and pointless.

TeamPossessionPoints (Standings)WhoScored Team Rating (SofaScore Team Rating)
Charlotte FC56.9%5 (14th in the East)6.50 (6.76)
Colorado Rapids49.9%6 (11th in the West)6.53 (6.80)
TeamShots per gameShots on target per gameGoals for (xG)Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC10.433.437 (7.0)14 (10.7)
Colorado Rapids11.433.293 (8.5)8 (10.1)

On the surface, Colorado seems like a poor offensive team, having only scored 3 goals. However, Colorado’s massive underperformance on goals versus their xG has me worried. I’m not saying they are a juggernaut of an offensive that has had severe bad luck, but a gap between actual goals and xG leads me to believe they’ll revert to the mean shortly.

Charlotte, meanwhile, continues to rack up possession numbers that lead to nothing. We continue to be second in the league behind only LA Galaxy in this category.

Lineup and Roster Breakdown

COL at ATX, 3/25
COL vs. LAFC, 4/1
COL at SKC, 4/8

Colorado is sound defensively. They got hammered in the opening game at Seattle by a score of 4-0, but since then haven’t allowed more than 2 goals in a game. In fact, of their 7 games, they’ve allowed 1 goal or fewer 5 times, including 2 shutouts (one over LAFC, which is an impressive feat).

That defensive stability comes from the fact that they’ve started the same goalkeeper (William Yarbrough) and mostly the same 3 CBs–Lalas Abubakar, Andreas Maxsø, and Danny Wilson–the entire season. Abubakar and Maxsø have started all 7 games, while Wilson has appeared in 6 and started 5, including the last 3.

Wingbacks Keegan Rosenberry and Sam Nicholson have both started 6 games, with Nicholson appearing in all 7. Midfielder Connor Ronan has also started all 7 games.

Over the past 3 games, the front 3 has also been relatively unchanged with Jonathan Lewis and Max starting all 3 of the previous games and Diego Rubio starting 2/3.

Other players like Cole Bassett (5 starts), Darren Yapi (6 apps, 4 starts), Bryan Acosta (4 starts), and Michael Barrios (7 apps, 3 starts) have all seen consistent playing time. In all, this is a team that has a pretty clearly defined starting 11, where the most changes come in the attack. It could explain their underperformance on goals but also helps explain their defensive stoutness.

Like Real Salt Lake who we just saw, Colorado only has 1 Designated Player: Maxsø

Injury

According to the MLS Availability Report, the Rapids were missing 2 players last week: defender Moise Bombito (left knee) and midfielder Jack Price (Achilles). Price will be a big miss for Colorado. The veteran, who also serves as Colorado’s captain, tore his Achilles on 3/20/23, so he’ll miss the entire season.

Midfielders Cole Bassett (left hamstring) and Braian Galvan (groin) were listed as questionable and neither made the bench.

Of note, Maxsø was forced off last week due to an injury. It’s unclear what his status for our matchup is. He would be a miss for them.

Diego Rubio (Forward, CAM)

Rubio began the year injured, which led to him missing the first few games. He’s recently come back into the side, appearing in 3 games and starting 2. He has one of Colorado’s 3 goals.

Rubio is coming off a career year last year. He’s in his 5th season with Colorado and had 16 goals (4 PKs) and 5 assists last year in 30 appearances (28 starts). This was double the number of goals he had over the previous 2 seasons (8 goals in 42 appearances over the 2020 and 2021 seasons). His first season with Colorado saw him get 11 goals and 4 assists in 26 appearances.

So who is he? To be honest, I’m not sure. Part of this is: how do you define him positionally? Colorado lists him as a forward and FBref has him as a “FW, MF.” In 2021, his percentiles are only compared to other MLS forwards, but in 2022, you can compare him to forwards, CAMs/wingers, or midfielders.

In terms of goalscoring, if he’s a forward, those 2 years (2020, 2021) are concerning. If he’s a CAM, they’re fine. If he’s a forward, last year was good! If he’s a CAM, last year was amazing! His heatmaps don’t help.

Rubio 2023 heatmap
Rubio 2022 heatmap

These are definitely not the maps of a forward (and his maps are pretty consistent throughout his years). I’m inclined to view him as a CAM, which makes his goal returns excellent, even in the “down” years.

As a CAM, he’s not a great passer. Compared with the “Men’s Next 8” CAMs, his passing is average. He is decent in long passing (70th percentile for long pass completion %) and he’s trying ambitious passes (77th percentile for passes into the final third, 84th percentile for passes into the penalty area, and 79th percentile for progressive passes). And this leads to him shining with goal and shot creation.

Rubio SCA/GCA vs. CAMs/wingers over the last 365 days in Men’s Next 8 Competitions.

These aren’t the best we’ve ever seen, but they do show a player that will consistently cause issues for defenders.

Darren Yapi (Forward)

I’m not sure we should expect Yapi to start, but he’s an interesting and talented young player. He has made 6 appearances this year with 4 starts but hasn’t started a game since 3/18.

Yapi is only 18 and last year only got into 11 games (1 start). He didn’t have a goal or an assist. This year, he’s only gotten 1 assist. Normally, this wouldn’t read like that interesting of a player, however, I think he is for two reasons. First, I always enjoy young players who break into teams, even if it is limited minutes. Second, in all his appearances last year he had 1.9 90s. So far this year, he’s already at 4.6 90s, meaning, Colorado clearly see him as ready to be part of the first team in a major way.

Further, Colorado has only scored 3 goals all year, so the fact that he hasn’t scored doesn’t mean much to me. What does mean a lot is that he’s the team leader in xG at 1.2 (along with 0.7 xGA).

Yapi 2023 heatmap

Positionally, he’s all over the place on the front line, but on the right he’s getting further toward the end line by a lot. Due to his overall lack of playing time, I don’t think the percentile ranks are hugely relevant yet. With that said, he does appear to take on people readily (5.56 take-ons attempted/90) and has success with it (2.32 successful take-ons/90). He’s someone who also appears to carry the ball well (20.38 carries/90, 40.29 progressive carry yards/90, 1.08 carries into the penalty area/90).

Even if he doesn’t start, it seems likely he’ll come off the bench when Charlotte has tired legs. He looks like a real prospect.

Max (CAM/winger)

Brazilian players do names right. Max. Hulk. Fred (even if it is pronounced as “Fredj”).

Max is a 22-year-old winger in his 2nd season with Colorado. Last year he got into 28 games (9 starts), but didn’t score and only had 1 assist. So far this year, he’s gotten into 6 games (4 starts) and still doesn’t have a goal.

Max 2023 heatmap

He favors the left side of the pitch and doesn’t really get into the penalty area all that much. Considering the positions that Rubio gets into, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

FBref allows him to be compared to midfielders or CAMs/wingers. Based on his heatmap and his position in the starting lineups, I’m going to consider him a CAM/winger.

The shooting numbers are terrible, as you might expect from someone who has yet to score a goal in MLS. The passing and possession numbers, though, are good.

  • 89th percentile for medium passes completed (87th percentile for medium passes attempted)
  • 94th percentile for long passes completed (82nd percentile for long passes attempted)
  • 92nd percentile for passes into the final third
  • 86th percentile for progressive passes
  • 99th percentile for successful take-on % (though only 25th percentile for take-ons attempted)
  • 96the percentile for times tackled during a take-on
  • 94th percentile for dispossessed

He’s not perfect in these categories, obviously. His short passing is oddly poor and he doesn’t carry the ball much or well. However, he is still young and many of these numbers point to someone who has serious attacking potential.

William Yarbrough (GK)

Yarbrough is now in his 4th season with Colorado and has been their #1 since his arrival. Over his 3+ seasons, he’s made 88 starts. He’s been…fine? As with any goalkeeper, the numbers are dependent on a number of factors, but his numbers have been pretty in consistent.

  • 2020: 14 starts, 1.43 GA90, 73.4% save%, 0.0 PSxG+/-
  • 2021: 33 starts, 0.97 GA90, 77.4% save%, +1.3 PSxG+/-
  • 2022: 34 starts, 1.61 GA90, 70.6% save%, -4.8 PSxG+/-
  • 2023: 7 starts, 1.14 GA90, 78.1% save%, +3.1 PSxG+/-

His best season was in 2021 when Colorado finished 1st in the Western Conference and made the conference semifinals. In 2020, they finished 8th in the West, and in 2022 they finished 10th in the West.

I’m not fully confident in making the argument that his performance is a result of the overall team, however, I do think there’s a real argument to be made that he’s not lifting his team. Bad teams allow more goals, so you would expect a goalkeeper to have worse numbers. However, good goalkeepers also help bad teams and I’m not sure I see evidence of that happening either.

The PSxG+/- numbers point to a player who, even in his best year, is just slightly above average, while in bad years (2022) is very bad. His number so far this year is excellent, but he doesn’t have a history of keeping it up. Maybe you could argue that he’s still prime-ish age for a goalkeeper (34), so maybe he’s going to have a career year? I tend to trust history more. I imagine that his PSxG+/- will come down a bit.

Overall, Yarbrough looks like an average keeper to me. In general, if the team is good, he’ll probably play well enough for you to win. If the team is bad, he’ll not do much to help you.

Conclusion

We’re in “must-win” territory now. A home game against a struggling team should be cause for optimism. Like most of you, I don’t feel very optimistic right now.

Colorado has some good players, but there’s not one that jumps out as a “danger man.” Players like Rubio, Yapi, and Max can cause problems to be sure, as can players like Ronan and Abubaker (both of whom I didn’t highlight, but are good players in their own right). If this were late 2022 Charlotte, I’d be exceedingly confident of a win. Right now, I’m wondering if we’ll be able to score.

The biggest question for me is what to do with our midfield. In an ideal world, I’d like to try a Karol-Westy-DJ/Bronico midfield. Swiderski and Bender lacked defensive stability against RSL and I just don’t think you can play both of them in the midfield.

This is what I’m hoping to see on Saturday.

Now, this lineup is based on what I think our availability will look like and, more importantly, what I think is reasonable to expect from Lattanzio. If Westwood is fit, I’d put him in for Bronico. Regardless, I think that this lineup gets the majority of our talent into the side (with Nuno being the glaring exception), while also providing us with the best chance at scoring.

In possession, I’d like to see us set up our midfield/backline with one of these two options:

  1. Have DJ drop between the CBs to give us 3 at the back, if we’re going to push Afful and Lindsey into the middle.
  2. Shift Tuiloma, Malanda, and Lindsey left into a back 3 with Afful and Jones forming a double pivot in the midfield.

My preference is option 2 as I’m not convinced Jaylin has the passing ability I want in the center of the pitch. Don’t get me wrong, he can make some fine passes, but they’re usually not build-up passes.

Vargas and Jóźwiak need to continue to provide width, but I am worried about Vargas’ positioning last game. It was something I noted in-game.

It’s further emphasized by his heatmap from that game:

Vargas heatmap at RSL, 4/8

Kerwin Vargas has no business being that far away from the opposing goal. It’s a waste of his talents. Compare the above map to his previous 3 games (ORL, RBNY, TFC):

Ideally, I want Vargas’ maps to look like the Orlando and Toronto games all the time.

Let’s hope some issues have been ironed out this week, though I’m not confident. This is one of the few times I’m predicting a home loss and probably the only time to a team I don’t consider elite.

Prediction: Charlotte 1 – Colorado 2

Data Notes: All heatmaps come fromSofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come fromFBref.com. All formation graphics are fromMLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us,Wyscout.com, andMLSsoccer.com

The 2023 Real Salt Lake Preview

Editor’s note: Previews will be a bit different moving forward. Gone is a complete overview of the opposing team, including every player, in favor of spotlighting 3-4 key players. Most, aside from Johs, probably weren’t interested in that much information. For those who enjoyed the old previews, apologies! For those who never read them or had little interest in them, hopefully this new format will be more interesting!

In a vacuum, the draw against Toronto is a really good result. In the real world, the draw against Toronto is still a really good result. So, why do I feel disappointed by it?

I think it’s the manner in which we conceded the goals, especially the first one. Normally, announcers annoy me, but I thought the broadcast team made the correct point that, with the wind the way it was, not having a player on the back post was malfeasance. Perhaps that ball still goes in, but I’d much rather have known we had set up to defend it properly. We were the beneficiaries of an Olympico last year, so there’s no real right to complain, but Jordy didn’t have the benefit of the wind.

Seeing Jóźwiak finally get a goal was wonderful. I’m sure it must feel like a huge weight has been lifted off his shoulders. I hope this is the start of a wave of goal involvement from him.

Kamil has never been as bad as his detractors have said, as he’s consistently added running and defense, along with a little trickiness, to the team. However, he’s also not quite as good as many of his most ardent supporters claim either. At the end of the day, Jóźwiak is a winger. While tracking back on defense and making tackles is all well and good, his primary responsibility is to contribute goals. It’s something he hasn’t done reliably for a few years now. Let’s hope the latter half of last season and this goal are a sign of a newfound goal-contribution reliability.

I also thought he looked pretty good on the right. I’m a longstanding proponent of LW-Jóźwiak-only, but having him on the right does 1) help fill one of the problem positions and 2) allows Vargas to be on the left where he can cut in onto a right-footed shot. If he can continue putting in performances like he did against Toronto from that side, the front 3 is set.

Well, that’s if Copetti doesn’t continue to pick up yellow cards at an alarming rate. He’s currently on 4 yellows; one more will get him a suspension. Part of this accumulation is on Enzo, but I do think he’s picked up at least a couple for…well…I’m not sure why. The RBNY game is a prime example of how I think he’s been officiated a bit differently so far. He gets a yellow for a shoulder charge, but an RBNY player does it in the same spot on the pitch later and only gets a foul.

Enzo right now reminds me of how Granit Xhaka was and can be officiated in the Premier League. Xhaka is another player who skews towards the “hot-headed” end of the spectrum. As a result, Xhaka has often picked up yellows and reds for challenges that others get away with entirely or get away with for far less. Again, some of this is on a player like Xhaka or Enzo; some of it, though, is a reputation that is gained. Players should not be officiated on reputation, though. They should be officiated on what they do. It’s especially alarming that a guy can get a reputation in just a handful of games.

TeamPossessionPoints (Standings)WhoScored Team Rating (SofaScore Team Rating)
Charlotte FC56.5%5 (14th in the East)6.51 (6.77)
Real Salt Lake49.0%3 (11th in the West)6.46 (6.70)
TeamShots per gameShots on target per gameGoals for (xG)Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC10.003.175 (6.0)11 (7.8)
Real Salt Lake12.405.603 (4.5)13 (11.1)

This should be fun. The moveable object meets the stoppable force! I’ll let you decide who is who.

Neither of these teams is particularly good at getting goals. Charlotte is near the bottom of the league in shots per game and shots on target, though we’re second in the league in terms of possession While Real is middle of the road when it comes to getting shots off, their xG is bottom of the entire league. RSL beat Vancouver Matchday 1, but scored both of their goals within 3 minutes of each other in the 2nd half. They have yet to have a player with the designation of “Forward” on FBref score a goal for them. Their leading goalscorer is a defender with 2.

It’s too early to say that our goals allowed are a function of bad luck, but it should be noted that there is a huge discrepancy already between what would be expected and what we’ve actually given up. Note that while Charlotte and RSL have given up a similar number of goals–11 and 13, respectively–the xGA difference is massive (7.8 xGA for Charlotte; 11.1 xGA for RSL). RSL’s xGA is 2nd worse in the league (0.02 behind Montreal). In the East, teams like Inter Miami and New England both have slightly worse xGA–8.4 and 8.2, respectively–but have allowed far fewer actual goals than Charlotte (7 GA for Inter; 6 GA for NE). The Olympico this past weekend certainly plays a part in this discrepancy, but I’m hoping that our defensive record will improve and return to a number closer to the xGA.

For what it’s worth, last year we ended with an xGA of 44.1 but allowed 52 actual goals. Bad to below-average defensive teams will “outperform” their xGA, but I’m not ready to say we’re a bad defensive team just yet. It’s true we haven’t been good, but there have been a lot of moving pieces and reasons for this.

Lineup

RSL vs ATX, 3/11/23
RSL vs. STL, 3/25/23
RSL at CLB, 4/1/23

RSL has been playing a 4-2-3-1 until last week. Now, as always, the formation that is listed on MLS’s site could be correct or not. For instance, they had Charlotte in a 4-5-1 last weekend, while Charlotte’s official Twitter had us in a 4-3-3. Go figure. Perhaps it’s incorrect, or perhaps they did switch it up for this past game. If they did switch it up, it didn’t work as they endured a 2nd straight 4-0 loss.

Regardless of the formation, what should be noted about this team is the utter randomness of their personnel. That’s (probably) hyperbole, but if Charlotte fans are complaining about how much CL chops and changes, I can’t imagine how Salt Lake fans feel.

Aside from their center-back Justen Glad and fullback Andrew Brody, I see no other player that has appeared in each of the past 3 games. Indeed, those are the only two players who have started in each of RSL’s games so far this year. There are only a few other players–midfielder Damir Kreilach and forwards Anderson Julio, Carlos Gómez, and Justin Meram–who have appeared in all 5 games.

I won’t hazard a guess as to who we’ll see.

Injury Report

As of last week’s MLS Availability Report, RSL has quite a few issues (which also likely helps explain the myriad of personnel changes discussed above). Forwards Jefferson Savarino and Daniel Musovski were both listed as “Probable” last week with a calf and ankle issue, respectively. However, neither even made the bench. Defender Marcelo Silva was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury and also didn’t make the bench.

Meanwhile, defenders Bryan Ovideo (calf), Zackery Farnsworth (thigh), and Erik Holt (Achilles) were all listed as “Out.” Midfielder Bode Hidalgo and forward Axel Kei (ankle) were listed as “Out.”

Most of these absences aren’t noteworthy, as most of these players are young and haven’t featured yet or often for RSL. Ovideo is a bit of an exception, as he made 3 starts.

The other potential exception is Kei who is FIFTEEN. He signed a professional contract with RSL as a 14-year-old, breaking Freddy Adu’s record. He made his debut in the USL at the age of 13 (and 8 months)! He’s already listed at 6’1″ and 161 lbs, so physically, he has a body capable of competing at this level. I can’t imagine he gets a ton of playing time at the MLS level this year, but who knows? If he’s good enough to get a contract, he might be good enough to break through. He’s more of an interesting name to know for the future rather than for this game.

Jefferson Savarino (LW, RW, CAM)

Savarino is RSL’s only Designated Player. While he has been listed on the injury report and didn’t feature last week, his “Probable” designation leads me to believe he might be back for our game. This tweet seems to confirm that (though I can’t speak to the veracity of the account).

Savarino is a 26-year-old Venezuelan who rejoined RSL last year from Atlético Mineiro in the Brazilian Série A. He began his career with Zulia in the Venezuelan league, before joining RSL in 2017 as a 20-year-old. He spent 3 seasons with RSL before moving to Mineiro in 2020.

In his first stint with RSL, he made 82 appearances and 78 starts, scoring 21 goals and getting 19 assists. With Mineiro, he made 53 appearances and 40 starts, scoring 14 goals and getting 8 assists. Since his return to Salt Lake, he has made 23 appearances and 20 starts, including 19 appearances last year and 4 this year.

He’s a flat-out productive player. Last year in his 19 appearances (17 starts) he got 7 goals and 4 assists. He has an assist this year already. Further, he’s consistent in his production. From 2018-2020, he made 27-32 starts and scored 7 or 8 goals with 5-9 assists each year. In 2017 he made 19 starts for RSL and in 2021 he made 11 starts for Mineiro. He scored 6 goals in 2017 and 5 in 2021, with 5 assists in 2017 and 2 assists in 2021. Basically, if he starts anywhere near 20 games, he’s going to give you double-digit goal contributions. If he’s starting closer to 30 games, he’ll probably mean in the 13-15 goal/assist range.

On top of that, he’ll play anywhere across the front line (though not as a striker).

Savarino 2023 RSL heatmap
Savarino 2022 RSL heatmap
Savarino 2021 Mineiro heatmap
Savarino 2020/21 Mineiro heatmap
Savarino 2019 RSL heatmap

What’s interesting is that Mineiro used him exclusively as a right-sided player. Prior to his departure to Mineiro, RSL used him in the same way. Since his return, though, they’ve been a lot less strict with this. Last year, he’s all over the pitch, while in his brief time this year, he’s been primarily deployed from the left. He clearly has the versatility to play either side or centrally.

With his goal-scoring record, I expected him to be a bit higher in these shooting percentiles. What does jump out, though, is his ability from free kicks, as he’s taking a high number as well as creating an insanely high amount of GCAs and SCAs from dead-ball situations.

Yep, the passing is very good. Ignore the percentage (71.6% and 64th percentile), as the quality is what jumps out. He’s not settling with the ball, but rather making progressive, dangerous passes. The same can be said with his dribbling and carrying ability. Let’s hope he needs another week to recover.

Damir Kreilach (CAM)

The 33-year-old Croat is in his 6th season with RSL, having joined from Union Berlin in 2018. With RSL, Kreilach has made 129 appearances (122 starts), scoring 44 goals and getting 18 assists. His best year, by far, was in 2021 when he made 32 starts, scored 16 goals (0 PKs!), and got 8 assists.

Last year was a lost year for Kreilach due to injury. He made only 5 appearances (3 starts) and scored once. He was injured in April and missed the rest of the season. He’s returned this year to feature in all 5 games and make 4 starts, along with scoring once and getting an assist.

While the 16 goals in 2021 were impressive, it’s a bit out of the ordinary for him. He has 2 other years of double-digit goal scoring: 2018 when he had 12 in his first year with RSL and 2015-16 when he had 12 with Union Berlin. With that said, he still found the back of the net 6 times in 2019 and 8 times in 2020, along with 5 assists across the two seasons. Further, Kreilach isn’t a striker; rather, RSL plays him more as an attacking midfielder.

Kreilach 2021 heatmap
Kreilach 2021 heatmap

At 33 and coming off an injury, who knows what kind of year he’ll have? Based on his history, as long as he’s returned to health I imagine that he’ll be somewhere in the 5-8 goal range with 3-5 assists. With RSL’s struggles, his numbers may be depressed due to a lack of quality around him.

The big danger* with Kreilach is that, while he doesn’t shoot often (47th percentile for shots total at just 2.08 per 90) when he does he’s extremely accurate (99th percentile for shots on target percentage at 58.3%). A corollary to this precision is the fact that when he shoots, he’s doing so from incredibly dangerous positions. His average shot distance is just 13.30 yards away from the goal, which is good for the 96th percentile. Our defenders and midfielders–especially DJ–are going to have to keep an eye on where he is at all times, but especially so when RSL find themselves in our third and around our box.

*Note: due to his injury absence last year, some of his percentiles are probably skewed. He’s being compared with wingers/CAMs from the Next 8 leagues over the past 365 days. Normally I’d be cautious about including these numbers due to his long injury absence, but when looking at his 2021 season, most are similar. For example, he’s in the 95th percentile for shots on target percentage at 52.7% and he’s in the 76th percentile for average shot distance at 15.70 yards out. I’m confident that while the numbers that look at the past year are a bit skewed for him, they still give a good representation of who he is as a player and where and how he presents danger.

Andrew Brody (FB)

While Brody and Glad are the only two players to have started all 5 games, I find Brody to be the more interesting of the two. Specifically, he’s a fullback that has played extensively as both a left-back and right-back. On the year, he’s made 3 starts at RB and 2 at LB.

Last year, in 34 appearances (33 starts), he was mostly deployed as a LB (21 times) but has a significant amount of time on the right side too (6 times as a RB, 5 times as a RM/RW). He has some designations as a WB (4 times) too, but I’m too lazy to look through each to see what side he was on. The point is, this is a guy who is comfortable on either side and RSL is clearly comfortable with that too.

Last year was his best season from a goal-contribution standpoint in MLS as he scored twice and got 4 assists. Now, he is a bit of a late bloomer. Brody didn’t make his MLS debut until he was 25 in 2021. Prior to that, he spent 6 seasons with the Real Monarchs. He made 101 appearances (88 starts) for the Monarchs, scoring 7 times and getting 8 assists. And that record is important, I think.

In the lower division, he was consistently getting a couple of goals a year and anywhere from 2-4 assists. Last year may have been a career year in a sense, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 1-2 goals and 2-3 assists again this year based on that history.

Brody 2023 heatmap
Brody 2022 heatmap

That’s an overlapping fullback if I’ve ever seen one. Last year’s map is probably influenced by his time as a more attacking wide player (either as a wingback or right-sided midfielder), but he’s clearly a player who likes the touchline.

So, he’s not in the team for defense. I’d describe him as an above-average offensive fullback. His progressive passing (98th percentile) and passes into the final third (90th percentile) do jump out, as does his carrying ability (97th percentile for progressive carries, 90th percentile for carries into the final third, 86th percentile for carries into the penalty area).

This is meaningful carrying of the ball, too, as he’s only in the 63rd percentile for carries, but in the 93rd percentile for total carrying distance and, more importantly, the 94th percentile for progressive carrying distance. If he improves his overall passing a bit and improves his defense to even below average (rather than just plain bad), he’ll be one of the better fullbacks in the league.

Whichever side he’s on, our wingers need to attack him and the space he’ll leave. My hope is that he’s playing RB again so that Vargas can get in behind him.

Zac MacMath (GK)/Gavin Beavers (GK)

MacMath was RSL’s undisputed #1 last year, as he started all 34 matches. He wasn’t bad either, considering RSL’s overall league position. He allowed 45 goals, had a 73.5% save percentage, and a 1.32 GA90. The PSxG+/- number wasn’t great at -1.9, but that was almost 50% better than Kahlina’s (-3.6).

With all this said, he was benched last week. Perhaps this shouldn’t be too surprising.

MacMath is 31 and last year was his first time as an undisputed #1 since 2014 when he was 22 and with Philadelphia. In fact, with Philadelphia, he made his first starts as a 19-year-old and spent 4 total seasons with the club. He made 102 starts for Philly, but only had a 67.5% save percentage with them, allowing 1.37 goals per 90.

He moved to Colorado for 4 seasons but only got double-digit starts once (17 in 2016). With Colorado, his save percentage (75.0%) and goals allowed per 90 (1.14) were much better, but he also played significantly less. A year stop in Vancouver saw him make just 8 starts. In his first 2 seasons with RSL, he would only make 13 starts.

Basically, until last year, MacMath’s career had been that of a backup. This year in his 4 starts, he allowed 9 goals and had just a 66.67% save percentage. As with any keeper, these stats will be, in part, determined by the defense in front of him. However, with the way the season has started for Real, it’s unsurprising that they would try something different.

In stepped Gavin Beavers. Beavers became the third youngest starting keeper in MLS history at just 17 years old. He allowed 4 goals. The young man must be hoping for better things ahead.

It’ll be curious to see who gets the nod this match. It seems that if you’re willing to start a 17-year-old keeper on the road, you’d be willing to do it at home. Perhaps it was just a wake-up call to MacMath. It does seem too early to throw in the towel on the season (which starting a 17-year-old in goal would seemingly imply).

In the end, Charlotte will be facing either a journeyman keeper or a baby in goal. Charlotte doesn’t often show the ability to test keepers early and often, but this is a game to do it in.

Conclusion

Real Salt Lake is more of a mess than Charlotte right now. Injuries are certainly a part of this club’s struggles in the early season, but so is the talent level. In key positions, they are young or lacking talent. I can’t lie, though, I’d love to see them start a 17-year-old in goal and a 15-year-old up top. It won’t happen against us, but maybe this year? Fingers crossed.

Road games are not Charlotte’s forte, but if there was ever a time to get a road win, it’s this game. In fact, this is as close to a must-win game as you can have with a Western Conference team in April. A draw would be fine (it is important to remember that playoff teams don’t so much win on the road as a draw), but a win would really make our position in the standings feel better.

It looks like Ashley Westwood is set to miss another game. Honestly, I’d really like Lattanzio to run out the exact same lineup he did against Toronto, with the exception of adding Świderski back in for Nuno or Bender. Ben had a great game, so I think it would be unlucky for him to not play.

With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brand and Karol back in the lineup in place of Bender and Nuno. I’m not sure that’s fair to either Bender or Nuno, but I’ve been very wrong this entire year about CL’s selections. Maybe I’ll probably be wrong again.

Nuno missed some chances last game, but I’m not convinced he had a bad game. He still had to get into those positions to make those changes. Plus, we can’t clamor for him to start and then reverse that after one start. He needs consistent minutes.

Up front, the trio of Vargas-Copetti-Jóźwiak should start again; I can’t see a reason for them not to. It’s a similar situation in goal and with the backline. Our best 4 defenders right now are Afful-Tuiloma-Malanda-Lindsey. It should continue.

Prediction: Charlotte 3 – RSL 1

Data Notes: All heatmaps come fromSofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come fromFBref.com. All formation graphics are fromMLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us,Wyscout.com, andMLSsoccer.com

The 2023 Toronto Preview, Pt. 1

It’s a big April ahead. I alluded to this yesterday in my post about our passing networks, but April provides a chance for Charlotte to earn a lot of points and erase the bad start to this season. A full 15 points from the 5 games is unrealistic, but something between 8-11 points would be really helpful to the cause.

With Karol having a pretty successful international break, I’m hoping that he comes back ready to go on a scoring run. That goal epitomized the player: good positioning and bad first touch, but ultimately a good finish.

Westwood’s injury is still something that continues to cloud our midfield selection. Now, Bronico will be serving a one game suspension for this challenge in the game against RBNY last weekend.

We can’t really have too many complaints as fans. In reality, we’re lucky we’ll only miss him for 1 game, as this easily could’ve been a red over the weekend plus a 3 match ban.

While I’m a huge fan of Brandt, I would like to see a midfield of Derrick Jones, Karol, and Westy. It’s something we haven’t seen yet. This would’ve been the perfect weekend to do so, but considering that I still haven’t seen word on his status, it seems unlikely to happen.

Lineups

Toronto vs. Columbus, 3/11
Toronto vs. Miami, 3/18
Toronto at San Jose, 3/25

Unlike Charlotte, Toronto has been pretty consistent in its lineup and personnel. They’ve run a 4-2-3-1 over the past 3 games, and most of their personnel have remained the same. They are missing Lorenzo Insigne, who is one of the more talent players to ever come to MLS, but retain the services of his compatriot, Fernando Bernardeschi. Their backline and midfield has remained largely unchanged game to game. The biggest changes have been the result of injury and international duty.

Injury

Last week Toronto dealt with a myriad of injuries and unavailability due to the international break. According to the MLS Availability Report, the following players were unavailable for them:

  • Cristian Gutierrez (OUT, illness)
  • Adama Diomande (OUT, lower body)
  • Lorenzo Insigne (OUT, lower body)
  • Ayo Akinola (OUT, international duty)
  • Mark-Anthony Kaye (OUT, international duty)
  • Richie Laryea (OUT, international duty)
  • Jonathan Osorio (OUT, international duty)
  • Tomas Romero (OUT, international duty)

Some of these players have not featured at all or haven’t featured extensively for Toronto on the year (e.g., Romero, Akinola), but others were huge misses (e.g., Kaye, Osorio, Laryea). Lucky for Charlotte, those players should be back for our game!

Where Charlotte does have luck is in the absence of Lorenzo Insigne. He’s only played 33 minutes on the year and reinjured himself on March 14. As a result, he’s set to miss our game. Toronto still has plenty of attacking talent, but Insigne is a true game-changer. Having to play Toronto without him is a blessing.

Attack

Without Insigne, Toronto’s attack will be centered on Bernardeschi. The Italian had a much better debut than I was expecting. He always had talent, but after an 11-goal (3 PKs), 4-assist season in 2016-17 with Fiorentina which got him a move to Juventus, his production stagnated. Over 5 seasons and 134 appearances for Juve, he only managed 8 goals and 12 assists, with his high being in his first season (4 goals and 3 assists).

Of course, MLS is not Serie A and his talent has shown here. Over 13 starts last year, Bernardeschi scored 8 goals and got 2 assists. Here’s the big asterisk though: of those 8 goals, FIVE were PKs. First off, did Charlotte even have 5 PKs awarded all of last year? Second, that kind of production from the spot is usually not a good indicator of future goalscoring output. He does already have another PK scored this year, so maybe it is. The larger point is that from open play, Bernardeschi continues to struggle to find the back of the net consistently (I say this as if any of our wingers last year had 3 goals…). So far in his 5 starts this year, he has 2 goals (1 PK) and 1 assist.

Bernardeschi heatmap 2023

He favors the right side, but as we see from their formations, he can play as a 10. He’s a creative player as his 4.21 shot-creating actions/90, 7.40 take-on attempts/90, and 2.60 successful take-ons/90 show.

For reference, Vargas currently leads Charlotte in SCAs/90 at 5.38 (I’m not including Bender who is at 6.43 because he only has 0.2 90s played), but also only has 2.8 90s versus Bernardeschi’s 5.0. As far as take-ons go, again our leader is a player who has too little time for me to include (Mello at 10.0/90 on only 0.3 90s). Of the players who have played at least 2 games, Karol leads the team at 3.85 take-ons attempted/90. Our leader for successful take-ons (with 2 90s set as the minimum) is Vargas at 2.50/90. Side note: Vargas has been hugely efficient with his take-ons, sporting a 70% success rate.

While Bernardeschi might be the big name, Jonathan Osorio is one of my favorite MLS players. He was a free agent this winter and I held out a ridiculous hope that Charlotte might tempt him away from Canada. In reality, it looks like he was looking for opportunities in Europe, none of which he fancied. Therefore, he returned to Toronto where he’s spent his entire career.

Osorio has made 263 career appearances for Toronto, including 211 starts. He has 43 goals and 33 assists in his career. His best year from a goal production standpoint was 2018 when he had 10 goals and 6 assists. Last year wasn’t too far behind that, though, as he got 9 goals and 4 assists. With the attention players like Insigne (when healthy) and Bernardeschi demand, it really opens things up for him.

For me, 5 games are still too few to take percentiles seriously. Therefore, these are Osorio’s from last year. He was good.

That’s a lot of green! Now, there are some caveats to this.

First, and most obvious, these percentiles compare him to midfielders, not attackers. I would love to see his numbers versus CAMs/wingers.

Secondly, many might consider him a midfielder, not an attacker. Looking at the way he has been deployed by Toronto this year–as a left-sided wide midfielder–is why I have decided to include him here. Further his goal return from last year is more in line with an attacker than a standard CM. As a result, if we were to compare him to more attack-minded midfielders, these numbers might not look as good, but the more important point is they give a clear view of how good a passer, carrier, and shooter he is.

Up top, Deandre Kerr has been their striker for the past 3 games. The 20-year-old has 1 goal so far. Last year he got into 26 games (11 starts) as a 19-year-0ld, scoring 3 times.

Kerr’s positioning seems to have changed from last year. His heatmap (below) shows a right-sided wide player. Indeed, his percentiles are comparing him to midfielders (which is actually rather annoying since it appears he should be compared to wingers/CAMs).

Kerr heatmap 2022

Kerr’s passing is not great. He was at 74.9% last year and is down to 62.1% this year. He’s only attempting 13.2 passes per 90 and only completing 8.18 passes/90, both down from last year. This decrease in the amount of his passing isn’t necessarily surprising due to his change in position.

Adama Diomande was the striker for the first two games. He’s new to Toronto, joining from the amazingly named club, Odd, in the Norwegian Eliteserien. While he’s new to Toronto, Diomande isn’t new to MLS. He spent 3 years (2018-2020) with LAFC, where he made 44 appearances (29 starts), and scored 20 goals with 9 assists. He only made 1 appearance for LAFC in 2020 before moving to the Chinese Super League in 2021. He only made 4 appearances there and moved to Odd in 2022, where he only made 2 appearances. Suffice it to say, the 33-year-old has not been playing much football over the past few years.

Diomande’s best scoring output came all the way back in 2015, when he was 24 and playing for Stabæk in the Norwegian Tippeligaen. He scored 17 goals (2 PKs) in 21 starts that year. He had 12 goals and 4 assists in his first year with LAFC, but aside from those 2 seasons, he’s never had double-digit goal years. While he did miss time due to international duty, it seems to me that he’s a depth piece, and the move to Kerr as striker is where Toronto will be heading this year.

Another older attacker to join Toronto this year is Victor Vázquez (though he rejoins this club, having spent 2 years there previously). Vázquez spent the last 2 years with LA Galaxy, making 54 appearances (36 starts), scoring 5 times, and getting 8 assists. At 36, he’s at the end of his career. He began his career with Barcelona and even made 1 appearance for the club as a 20-year-old back in 2007-2008. He spent most of his career with Club Brugge in the Belgian Pro League, before joining Cruz Azul in Liga MX in 2015-16.

He originally joined Toronto in 2017 as a 30-year-old and spent 2 very productive years there. In 2017 and 2018, he made 52 appearances and 47 starts, scoring 16 times (5 PKs) and getting 14 assists. This includes his first year when he had 10 assists.

Vázquez will pop up all over the pitch but does tend to favor the left side. Historically, he seems to play in similar areas to Osorio, which makes sense when you see that he was the one who took Osorio’s place last match.

Kosi Thompson, Ayo Akinola, and Hugo-Hilaire Mbongue Mbongue make up a triplet of attackers who have featured for Toronto this year but have not started.

Thompson has made 2 appearances for a total of 19 minutes. He did play in 24 games last year, getting 1 goal and 1 assist, as a 19-year-old. He has yet to record a goal or assist this year.

Akinola has made 3 appearances this year, failing to get a goal or assist. He made 26 appearances for Toronto last year, scoring twice. For his career, he has made 67 appearances for Toronto over 6 seasons (he debuted as an 18-year-old for them), scoring 15 goals. He had 9 goals in 15 appearances in 2020 but has never replicated that production again.

Mbongue Mbongue is yet another young attacker at 18. He made 1 appearance for Toronto last year but has already made 3 this year. It’s only been a total of 58 minutes, but Toronto clearly sees potential in him.

Alonso Coello is yet another young attacker (this time a CAM) for Toronto. He’s not even listed on their official roster; only on TFC II’s roster. With that said, he did make his MLS debut last week as their 10. With TFC II last year, he made 24 starts, had 1 goal, and 1 assist. I know little else about him.

The final piece to the attack is Brandon Servania. The just-turned-24-year-old is in his first season with Toronto, having spent the majority of his career with FC Dallas. He had a short loan spell at St. Pölten in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2020-21. He made 10 appearances (7 starts) for the Austrian club but failed to record a goal or assist.

With Dallas, Servania debuted at 19 and would go on to make 67 appearances (43 starts) for the club. He scored 2 goals and had an assist his first year, then went 2 full seasons without getting on the scoresheet. Last year he made 23 appearances (15 starts), scoring twice and getting 3 assists. He’s made 5 appearances with 4 starts so far this year.

Servania’s position is a bit nebulous. He’s started as part of Toronto’s double pivot, as a 10, and as a wide right-sided midfielder over the past 3 games. With Dallas last year, it was a bit more defined.

Servania heatmap 2022

To me, it seems like Servania is primarily a right-sided midfielder, but obviously, he has some positional flexibility which is never a bad thing.

Midfield

The midfield is comprised of that double pivot for TFC and it’s really just two players: Michael Bradley and Mark-Anthony Kaye. Kaye came over midyear from Colorado to help reinforce their midfield, while Bradley enters his 10th season in Toronto. At 35, you have to think the end is near for Bradley, but he keeps churning away. Last year he made 34 starts, scored 3 goals, and got 3 assists.

Kaye, meanwhile, has bounced around a bit over the past couple of years. He spent 4 seasons with LAFC, making 77 appearances, before moving to Colorado in the middle of 2021. He would only spend a year there (parts of 2 seasons), before joining Toronto. Wherever he’s gone in MLS, he’s been a starter. He made 71 starts (77 appearances) for LAFC, 29 for Colorado (32 appearances), and has made 11 already for Toronto (12 appearances).

He’s off to a tremendous goalscoring pace to begin this year, having scored twice already. His previous career high in MLS was 4 goals (and 8 assists!) back in 2019 for LAFC. Perhaps this pace is sustainable, but more than likely it’s not. He consistently chips in goals, but he’s not a scoring threat, per se.

Bradley is a stereotypical CDM now, while Kaye plays a similar role, though he stays on the left much more than Bradley. Bradley is still a pretty good passer, while Kaye is more of a recycler of the ball. In this team, their primary responsibility is obviously to get the ball and keep it so that players like Osorio, Bernardeschi, and Insigne can do damage.

Elsewhere on the roster, there are midfielders Markus Cimermancic, Themi Antonoglou, and Jordan Perruzza. None have made an appearance so far this year.

With the international break over, chances are we are going to see Bradley and Kaye as the midfield partnership (although they could go with someone other than Kaye if he needs some rest).

Defense

If there was one major issue for Toronto last year, it was defense and goalkeeping. Toronto scored 49 goals last year, good for 6th in the East. The problem was they allowed 66 goals, 2nd worst in the East. While not a defender, Kaye was one part of trying to fix that issue. The other was going out and getting almost an entirely new backline (and goalkeeper).

At center back, Toronto brought in MLS veteran Matt Hedges, who had spent his entire 11-year career in Dallas, making over 300 appearances and starts for that club. They also brought in Sigurd Rosted from the Danish Superliga to pair with Hedges. He joined from Brøndby, where he made 84 appearances (69 starts) over 4 seasons. Finally, they brought in left-back Raoul Petretta from Kasimpasa in the Turkish Super Lig. Petretta only spent 1 season in Turkey, making 9 appearances. He spent the previous 6 seasons with Basel in the Swiss Super League, making 109 appearances (99 starts) for that club. These 3 players are aged 32 (Hedges), 28 (Rosted), and 26 (Petretta) and bring a ton of high-level experience to this club and backline.

Hedges is a good reader of the game, as he was in the 76th percentile for blocks, 89th percentile for shots blocked, and 91st percentile for clearances last year. Rosted’s percentiles are versus the “Next 8 Competitions” (i.e., MLS, Brazilian Série A, Dutch Eredivisie, English Championship, Mexican Liga MX, Portugues Primeira Liga, Copa Libertadores, and UEFA Europa Conference League) and, defensively, they are good. He’s in the 89th percentile for tackles, 95th percentile for dribblers tackled, 96th percentile for passes blocks, and 91st percentile for interceptions. The upgrade at this position (CB) has been swift and real.

The only holdover from last year in this backline is Richie Laryea. Laryea has been with Toronto since 2019, making 81 total appearances for the club. He did spend part of 2021-22 on loan at Nottingham Forest (then in the English Championship) but only made 5 appearances and 1 start for Forest. He made 10 starts last year for Toronto, getting 3 assists.

Layrea is a good passer. He’s in the 99th percentile for pass completion % (overall), as well as the 99th percentile for pass completion percentage at short, medium, and long-distance passing. N0w, it should be noted that he was only in the 20th percentile for medium passes attempted and only the 5th percentile for long passes attempted, so it’s not something that he does a ton. He’s in the 79th percentile for progressive passes, as well as the 88th percentile for key passes.

Layrea heatmap 2023

That heatmap shows a more traditional fullback than what Charlotte employs. With Bernardeschi liking to cut in off that right-wing, it makes sense to have Layrea fill that space wide.

Elsewhere in defense, you’ll find Jahkeel Marshall-Ruty. He’s listed as a forward on Toronto’s roster, but FBref has him playing as a right-back in his only appearance this year. He got into 17 games last year (5 starts) and is only 18.

Kobe Franklin is another young defender at 19. He’s appeared in 2 games this year. He only had 1 appearance last year for 14 minutes.

Finally, there is a trio of players who appeared in a number of games last year for Toronto but have yet to do so this year. Shane O’Neill is a center-back who got 21 starts and 26 total appearances last year. Lukas MacNaughton appeared in 25 games last year (20 starts). Jordan Perruzza appeared in 13 games last year (just 1 start). None have gotten off the bench this year.

Goalkeeping

Goalie play was a distinct problem area for Toronto last year. Like the defense, they have basically scrapped their options from last year and started over. Gone are Alex Bono and Quentin Westberg to DC United and Atlanta United, respectively. Bono made 24 starts for them in 2021 and 2022, while Westberg made 10 in each of those same years. Bono had a 1.83 GA90 in 2021 and a 1.75 GA90 in 2022; Westberg had a horrendous 2.20 GA90 in 2021 and a 2.40 GA90 in 2022. To say a change was needed is an understatement. Neither has appeared in a game for their new clubs, which, when seeing those stats, isn’t a surprise.

Greg Ranjitsingh is the only holder, but he hasn’t appeared in an MLS game since 2020 with Minnesota. For his career, he’s only made 5 starts at the MLS level. It should be said that his record in the USL with Louisville City is quite impressive: 78 appearances and a 1.02 goal allowed/90. He’s either never proven himself capable at the MLS level or has never been given a shot.

Tomas Romero is another goalkeeper who has barely played in MLS. He’s younger than Ranjitsingh at only 22. He does have more games at this level, though, they all came back in 2021 when he made 18 starts for LAFC. It didn’t go particularly well, as he had a 1.56 GA90.

Neither Ranjitsingh nor Romero is going to be counted upon this year for Toronto. Instead, Toronto brought in Sean Johnson to shore up their goalkeeping. The USMNT goalkeeper is now in his 14th season in MLS, having played 7 years in Chicago and the last 6 for NYCFC.

Johnson is a good MLS keeper, though I’d say he tends to be in the above-average category, more than the elite. For his career, he has a 1.30 GA90 with a low of 1.07 GA90 in 2021 and a high of 1.68 GA90 way back in 2016 (his final year with Chicago). Over the past 6 years with NYCFC, he’s been solid and ended his time in New York with a 1.19 GA90.

His PSxG+/- backs up that he’s a pretty good keeper. Last year was his worst in some time, as he posted a -0.6 PSxG+/-, but in the previous 4 seasons, he was solidly in the plus. He was at +1.9 in 2018, +3.9 in 2019, +7.0 (!) in 2020, and +2.1 in 2021. So far this year he’s at +0.1.

These numbers are not outrageously good (except for 2020). He’s not Andre Blake or any goalkeeper that NE seems to find, but he’s really solid. He’s an especially solid option when you compare him to Bono’s above GA90 numbers and Bono’s PSxG+/- numbers (career -2.7, including -2.9 in 2021 and only +0.1 in 2022). While every team would prefer to have a Blake or Petrović, those are few and far between. Compared with what Toronto had between the sticks, Johnson is going to seem like a godsend.

Conclusion

Toronto’s start to this season has surprised me. It hasn’t been terrible, but I expected them to make the jump into the upper tier of the league. I really liked the offseason moves they made and, with their superstar attacking Italians, I thought they’d be really dangerous. Insigne’s injury is certainly part of their slow start but probably isn’t the entire reason. As with Charlotte, though, there is still plenty of time for them to turn it around.

Importantly, their defense seems to be getting better. This isn’t surprising considering 3 of the 4 starters are new to the team and each other. They gave up 3 goals in their opening-day loss to DC United, then gave up 1 goal in their next 2 games (both draws against Atlanta United and Columbus). Over the past 2 games, though, they’ve not conceded (a 2-0 win over Inter Miami and a 0-0 draw over San Jose). Considering the level of the opponent, to give up so few goals over the last 4 games is impressive. Charlotte doesn’t know how to score, so this could be a problem.

In attack, it’s a good thing we miss Insigne, but it would’ve been a better thing if we could’ve played them last week when they were missing Insigne, Laryea, Kaye, and Osorio (amongst others). Such is life.

Based on how little news we’ve heard, I don’t expect Westwood to play. This means another week of guessing who mans the midfield, especially with the forced exclusion of Bronico. If I had to guess, we’ll see a midfield of Karol, Nuno, and DJ. Of course, I didn’t see Lindsey starting 2 weeks in a row at RB or Byrne as a CB, so who knows?

Vargas at LW seems a foregone conclusion at this point, though I do wonder if Jóźwiak on the left and Vargas on the right don’t give us the best option now in terms of talent and floor. Mello was electric when he came on and I wouldn’t be opposed to him starting at all, but it just seems unlikely. Further, for a young player learning a new league and coming back from a wasted year due to injury, being a bench player for a bit is probably the prudent choice. I love me some Gaines, but this season has not been good for him so far. A sub role seems appropriate right now with the hope that he’ll get going.

For all the strife around Enzo and his supposed antics, the man has been off to a good start for us. His 2 goals obviously lead the team, but so does his 1.3 xG. Karol isn’t too far behind with 0.8 xG. I’m not sure we could’ve asked for more, especially with how poorly some of our other players have been.

I think his “antics” have been overblown, but more worryingly is that I think he’s being reffed differently already. Against RBNY, he had a foul on Tolkin for which he was given a yellow. I don’t remember other fouls from him before the yellow, so I thought it was not only a soft one, but undeserved. I especially felt that way once a RBNY play did the same thing in the same place on the pitch and didn’t get a yellow.

Some will argue that this difference in reffing might be due to his own behavior. Miss me with that. A referee’s job is to be impartial and call the game fairly. If he/she is so thin-skinned as to let complaining drive his/her decisions, they don’t need to be a ref.

In defense, I do hope that Tuiloma is healthy enough to go. I didn’t think Byrne was that bad outside of the poor trap that led to the goal. To me, he didn’t lose us the game; our inability to do anything with the over 70% possession we had did. At the same time, I do need an experienced professional to handle a backpass better. The bottom line is if he does have to start again at RCB, I’m not overly concerned. It does move Malanda out of the better fit of RCB to LCB, but that kid is so good he can handle it.

Lindsey has not given me a reason to remove him from the lineup. He should continue to start. Meanwhile, Afful has looked really solid in the last 2 games. I’m still skeptical he can keep this up for an extended period of time, but considering the team doesn’t appear to have any intention of getting a new left-back, he may continue to be our best option (so long as we’re inverting that LB). This week will be a real challenge for him, though, as Bernardeschi presents a pace and technical problem.

Finally, George Marks keeps showing out. Marks really has been something else in goal. He’s looked assured on the ball and has had good ideas with his distribution. He hasn’t necessarily executed those ideas well, but when he tries a pass he’s doing so in a way that doesn’t immediately cause danger if it doesn’t come off. When it comes to actually making saves, yeah, he’s doing that too. He’s at 1.00 GA90 in his 2 starts and is at +1.0 PSxG+/- in those starts. That’s really good!

Now, there is the warning that Kahlina also started the year off well with PSxG+/- before ending in the negative, but Marks has clearly played better than Pablo. If this continues, I do think there is a real discussion to be had about whether Kahlina should automatically get the job back.

I wouldn’t say that I’m confident in us going to Toronto and getting a win; last year kind of scarred me. However, if there were ever a time, it might be now. I honestly believe Insigne is that big of a miss for them. Toronto is also near the bottom of the league when it comes to possession at 47.2%. That should play into our desire to keep the ball, though their transition game is more akin to St. Louis and Atlanta than RBNY, I think. I’m going naively optimistic!

Prediction: Toronto 1 – Charlotte 2

Data Notes: All heatmaps come from Sofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come from FBref.com. All formation graphics are from MLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us, Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com.

The 2023 Orlando Preview, Pt. 1

Huh, guess these fanbases have something in common. I’d give Orlando fans first dibs on these feelings due to their seniority. Saturday was as noncompetitive as I’ve seen Charlotte in its short history. That’s about all I have to say about things that have happened over the past week.

Lineups

Orlando has started the season much better than Charlotte with a home victory over RBNY (1-0), a home draw against Cincinnati (0-0), and an away draw against DC United (1-1). Defensively, you feel okay about that, but 2 goals in 3 games isn’t great (says the fan of the 1 goal team…).

In addition to theses league games, Orlando is also in the CCL. On 3/7, they produced a great result of 0-0 at UANL. I say this statement in all sincerity, as it set them up very well for the home leg on 3/15. Well, in addition to Fox cutting the feed before the game was over, Orlando came up just short with a 1-1 draw, sending Tigres through on away goals (stupid rule). Tigres is one of the better clubs on this continent, so I don’t think Orlando should be too down on itself. Certainly disappointed, but not disheartened.

More importantly from a Charlotte perspective, Orlando has played 180 more minutes of football than us, including what will be 3 games this week. Wednesday night’s affair was all high-stakes, so hopefully it was energy sapping.

Now, there is a positive way to look at this. We are still very much in “early season” form. Part of the reason MLS teams struggle so much in CCL is because the MLS season has just started, while Liga MX (and other leagues) sides have been going for multiple games already. UANL has already played 11 league games. The chemistry of that team is far above Orlando’s, or any MLS side. There might be more wear on Orlando legs; they might have better understanding, though.

Orlando vs. RBNY, 2/25
Orlando vs. Cincinnati, 3/4
Orlando at DC, 3/11

Orlando’s lineups are all over the place. It looks like a 4-2-3-1 might be their preferred, but then you have that 3-4-2-1 and 5-3-2 hanging out there. Now, the differences between a back 5 and a back 3 can be blurry, so that 3-4-2-1 could easily be a 5-2-3 (or something of the sort). The point is, this is a team that has some lineup variation, so it should be interesting to see what they do on Saturday with it.

My guess–based on the way they started the season and the lineup they’ve put out against Tigres–is that the 4-2-3-1 with those personnel choices is the (mostly) preferred lineup.

Injury

According to the MLS Availability Report, Orlando have a pretty clean bill of health. Only forward Favian Loyola is listed as Questionable with a left thigh injury. He’s 17 and doesn’t have a first team appearances, so, all-in-all, Orlando will be coming in with a full-strength squad.

Note: Antonio Carlos has injury concerns but isn’t listed in the Availability Report. More on this later.

Attack

Like Atlanta, Orlando has a young South American DP player who should be the focal point of opposition teams: the Uruguayan, Facundo Torres. There were rumors of Torres being linked to Arsenal in January, though obviously nothing came of that.

Torres is listed as a midfielder and forward, which is unsurprising when you see the formations above. The 22-year-old had a strong debut season in MLS last year, scoring 9 goals (1 PK) and getting 8 assists. Now, he did that off the back of a 4.7 xG (4.0 npxG) so there is some question about the sustainability of that goal-scoring production. Good goal-scorers usually over-perform their xG; they don’t usually double it. He also over-performed his xAG, which was 5.4. He has 1 of Orlando’s 2 goals on the season.

Torres had 10 goals over 50 appearances for Peñarol (his previous club) in his age 19 and 20 seasons. The history of goalscoring is there. The questions are: does his goal tally come down? Does the xG improve? Is he a unicorn who consistently over performs his xG to this level? He’ll be 23 this season, so there’s plenty of time for this to become clear. What is clear now is that Charlotte will have to be aware of him.

In addition to his obvious goal-contributions, Torres is a dangerous passer. He’s not elite here yet, but he is good. He’s in the 83rd percentile for assists, the 81st percentile for progressive passes, and in the 70th percentile ranges for passes into the final third (76th), passes into the penalty area (74th), and crosses into the penalty area (71st).

He’s a good carrier of the ball (82nd percentile for carries, 72nd percentile for progressive carrying distance, and 76th percentile for carries into the final third) and receiver of the ball (80th percentile for passes received, 74th percentile for progressive passes received).

Torres MLS heatmap 2023
Torres MLS heatmap 2022

He’s recreating his map from last year. There is a bias toward the right side of the pitch, but it’s clear that he’s going to drift all over the final third. He’s been started as a CAM, RM/RW, or part of a strike partnership. His versatility makes him dangerous. Considering how many issues Almada and ATL gave use with attacking our left side (before finishing attacks on our right side), we should be concerned.

Elsewhere in attack, you’ll find DP striker Ercan Kara, Jack Lynne, Moises Tablante, the injured Loyola, Gaston González, Ramiro Enrique, Duncan McGuire, Dagur Dan Þórhallsson, and Martín Ojeda. Neither Lynne nor Tablante has made a senior appearance this year and Lynne only had 3 appearances (for 4 minutes) last year. Lynn is currently out on loan.

Kara is a 27-year-old Austrian striker. He’s big at 6’3.5″ and 192 lbs. He’s in his 2nd season for Orlando having come over from Rapid Wien in the Austrian Bundesliga. He had 11 goals (1 PK) and 3 assists last year on 9.4 xG and 1.6 xAG. For as big as he is, he doesn’t have the number of headed goals you might expect. Of his 10 non-PK goals, only 3 were headers. Most were with the right foot, while one was with his left. The way to defend him, then, seems pretty simple (/s): force him off that right foot.

Kara started the first two games but did not start in Orlando’s game against DC or in their CCL games. I haven’t been able to find anything about these absences being related to injury, so it might be a form issue.

In Kara’s place, Enrique and McGuire have come in. Enrique is 21 and in his first season in MLS, having arrived from Banfield. He had 8 goals and 2 assists in 51 appearances for Banfield. McGuire is 22 and was selected in the most recent SuperDraft (#6 overall) from Creighton. From Orlando’s announcement about his signing:

McGuire is coming off a breakout year that earned him the 2022 MAC Hermann Trophy, an annual award given to college soccer’s best player. He set the Creighton single-season record for goals (23), picked up Second Team All-America honors, and helped propel his team to the College Cup.

I will say again: it’s exceedingly rare for a SuperDraft pick to get serious minutes. McGuire might be the exception. He has Orlando’s other league goal on the season. Enrique, meanwhile, has started both CCL games for them.

González (21), Þórhallsson (22), and Ojeda (24) are all first year MLS players. Orlando has really turned this roster over. González joins from CA Unión in the Argentina Primera. In 2021, González had 5 goals and 6 assists as a 19-year-old. On the year he has 2 appearances (1 start) with 0 goals or assists. In his 1 start, he appears to have played as a left wing-back.

Þórhallsson joins Orlando from the Norwegian side Mjøndalen. He has 3 appearances (2 starts) with 0 goals and an assist on the year. He’s been started in an attacking midfielder role behind a striker (or 2 strikers).

Finally, Ojeda joins Orlando from Godoy Cruz in Argentina. He made 50 appearances for Godoy, scoring 18 goals (2 PKs) and 12 assists over that time. This includes a 12-goal, 3-assist season in 2021. Ojeda has made 3 league appearances (1 start) so far. He was played as a CAM in this start. He played the same role in his other start against UANL in the first leg.

Ojeda was a $4.01M signing, so the expectations are high for him.

Ojeda Godoy Cruz heatmap from 2022

With Godoy Cruz, he shows a strong bias towards the right. I can’t speak on how exactly he was deployed with them.

Ojeda MLS heatmap from 2023

With Orlando, this bias has not shown up. It probably reflects his more central role for Orlando, though as his Godoy Cruz map shows, he will drift all over the pitch. If he starts, the interplay between him and Torres will be fascinating to watch.

Midfield

In the midfield, Orlando will deploy their last DP, Mauricio Pereyra, Felipe Martins, Wilfredo Rivera, César Araújo, Erick Gunera-Calix,
Iván Angulo, Wilder Cartagena, and Shakur Mohammed. Mohammed was Orlando’s other high SuperDraft pick (#2 overall) but has yet to feature for the club. Rivera and Gunera-Calix also have yet to make a senior team appearance.

Felipe Martins joined on a free from Austin. He made 28 appearances for Austin, but only started 5 games. He scored once and had 2 assists. At 32, he’s probably done with being a consistent starter. In fact, you have to go back to 2019, when he was with Vancouver, for him to have made above 10 starts in a season. He has been in MLS since 2012, though, so he definitely knows the league.

Pereyra is the big name of this group. The 33-year-old Uruguayan is now in his 5th season with Orlando, having made 86 appearances (79 starts), including 32 appearances (31 starts) last year. Before Orlando, he was in the Russian Premier League with Krasnodar and was initially a goalscorer. In 2013-14, he scored 6 goals with 4 assists and followed that season up with a 9-goal, 1 assist season in 2014-15. Since then, though, he’s become more of a playmaker. With Orlando, he’s only scored 4 total goals, including just 1 last year. To be honest, he’s been a bit unlucky with his goal-scoring. He had a 2.6 xG in 2021 and a 2.9 xG last year. In each year he only scored once. This isn’t a crazy disparity, so I don’t think it points to a likely upshot of goals; it’s simply noteworthy. He had 7 assists in 2021 and 8 assists last year. He’s yet to get an assist this year, but history says those will come.

So far this year, Pereyra seems to be playing a bit further back than he was in 2022. That’s unsurprising considering the attacking midfield talent (Ojeda, Þórhallsson) they’ve brought in. Regardless of whether you consider him a CAM or CM, his penetrative passing numbers are excellent. He’s among the league leaders in progressive passing, passes into the penalty area, passes into the final third, and key passes. Additionally, he’s excellent when it comes to shot-creating actions. The percentiles below show that regardless of how you consider him (CAM or CM), his passing is elite.

Cartagena is in his 2nd season with Orlando, having joined last year. He only made 8 appearances (4 starts) but joined on loan from Ittihad Kalba in August. The loan is set to expire at the end of this year. Unlike most of Orlando’s other new arrivals, Cartagena is a veteran at 28 years old.

Cartagena has appeared in all 3 league matches for Orlando, starting 2. His role is to be a defensive balance to Orlando’s attacking talent. He does the job very well, as he’s a good tackler and interceptor of the ball.

Araújo and Angulo are both in their 2nd seasons with Orlando. Araújo made 31 appearances (28 starts) for Orlando last year. He’s never had a goal or an assist in his career. He’s appeared in all 3 league games so far but has only started 1. Meanwhile, Angulo joined in the summer of last year and made 9 appearances (5 starts), recording 2 assists. Angulo has appeared in all 3 league games but has made only 2 starts. Both started in the matchups with UANL. Angulo has started as the left wide player when Orlando is in a 4-2-3-1 and as a wingback when they are in a back 5.

Araújo’s job is to be cover, but I’m not sure he’s great at it (he’s not bad). His passing is good and safe (high-ish percentiles for pass completion overall and in the short/medium ranges). He’s not progressing the ball much, but that doesn’t need to be his job when you have someone like Pereyra.

Defensively, he’s a good tackler (83rd percentile), great against dribblers (97th percentile of dribblers tackled), and reads the game well (76th percentile for tackles plus interceptions). With that said, I think there’s a reason they brought in Cartagena. He does all of these things, but better. Araújo is only 21, so Cartagena has 7 years on him. It’s not a surprise that Cartagena would be more solid defensively at this point in their respective careers. Araújo isn’t a great CDM yet, but has the talent to be. It’s also important to note he’s started their two biggest games of the season against Tigres, which does show what the club thinks of him.

Angulo doesn’t have a history of goal contribution. His best season (goal-contribution-wise) was as an 18-year-old in the Colombian league, where he had 2 goals and 3 assists. This got him a move to Palmeiras in Brazil, but he never made an appearance. He got into 3 games with Botafogo before moving to Portimonense in the Portuguese league. He made 32 appearances (27 starts) for Portimonense, but only recorded 1 goal and 1 assist. Last year’s tally of 2 assists in MLS wasn’t bad, especially considering his limited playing time, however, you have to imagine teams are looking for more production from the wing than what he’s historically provided (is he their Jóźwiak?).

It’s a small sample size, but nothing jumps out in Angulo’s percentiles with the exception of his carry numbers. He was in the 91st percentile for carries into the final third and the 85th percentile for carries into the penalty area. He’s only in the 40th percentile for progressive carries, though, so it’s still an area of growth. It must be said that 6.1 90s is hardly enough time to accurately measure his ability.

Defense

Orlando lists 3 young defenders on their roster who have yet to make an appearance this year: Alexander Freeman, Thomas Williams, and Brandon Hackenberg. Of the 3, only Williams has ever had a senior appearance (4 apps, 2 starts last year).

There is a 4th defender, Antonio Carlos, who has yet to make an appearance for Orlando this year. Unlike the others, Carlos has been a key contributor for Orlando at center back over the past few years. He joined Orlando in 2020, having spent 3 years with Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. He made 36 appearances for Palmeiras. Since joining Orlando, Carlos has made 70 appearances, including 64 starts. He’s been out with an injury (yay MLS Availability Report not showing that!) picked up in the preseason. Orlando’s own fans note his absence’s effect on their ability to defend in the air:

Carlos’ most effective aerial season was in 2021, when he tied forward Daryl Dike for the team lead with 2.2 aerials won per game. Last year, with Dike in England, Carlos led the team for the second consecutive season with 1.9 aerials won per game, despite missing time with a hamstring injury.

This aerial ability is real too; it’s not just fan bias. Carlos is in the 74th percentile for aerials won, 89th percentile for aerials lost, and 99th percentile for percentage of aerials won. The other two primary CBs on this roster–Robin Jansson and Rodrigo Schlegel–are horrible. Jansson is in the 6th percentile for aerials won and the 9th percentile for percentage of aerials won. Schlegel is equally inept, as he’s in the 11th percentile of aerials won and 5th percentile of percentage of aerials won.

If there was ever a time when “cross and pray” might work, this is the game. It should be noted that Carlos has been back in training and has made the bench against both DC United and UANL, so there is a chance he plays Saturday. Let’s hope he needs a bit more time.

Carlos’ primary CB partner has been Jansson. Jansson is in his 5th season with Orlando and starts most of their games. Over this time, he’s appeared in 103 matches, starting 99 of them. He provides a little threat in front of goal, getting 4 goals over the past 2 seasons (2021 and 2022). 3 of those goals did come in 2021, so I’m not sure he’s someone that we need to be seriously concerned about, but it’s something to watch out for.

Jansson is a decent passer of the ball, especially when it comes to long passes. He’s in the 86th percentile for long pass completion percentage. This percentage comes on the back of him routinely trying these types of passes (63rd percentile for long passes attempted). He also likes to carry the ball out of the back, as he’s in the 89th percentile for take-ons attempted, the 92nd percentile for successful take-ons, and the 82nd percentile for progressive carries.

Schlegel has been the primary beneficiary of Carlos’ absence. He’s started all 3 games so far, though he did start quite frequently for Orlando over the past 2 years anyway (52 appearances, 39 starts over the 2021-2022 seasons). Schlegel is a good tackler (93rd percentile), especially against dribblers (96th percentile).

Abdi Salim was the 17th overall selection in the most recent SuperDraft. He’s played as a CB in 2 games for Orlando (both times when they were in a back 3 or 5 configuration). This being his first professional season, there’s not much data to look at.

Kyle Smith is a fullback turned center-back*, at least currently. He’s appeared in all 3 league games but has only started as part of a back 3 or 5. He did get into 29 games (14 starts) last year for Orlando, scoring 2 goals. He’s in his 5th season with Orlando, having made 98 appearances (63 starts), scoring 3 goals, and assisting once.

*Note: The regular caveats about formation apply here. I’m basing position designations on the lineups released by MLS. There’s every chance that they show a back 5 with Smith as a CB, but in reality, it was a back 4 with him at his usual fullback position.

To return to the aerial issue Orlando is having and Smith’s role in it. Smith is decent in the air for a fullback (87th percentile for aerials won, 40th percentile for percentage of aerials won). As a center back, though, his percentile for aerials won falls to 22nd. That’s not a surprise, but simply reinforces the idea that this is an area of weakness for them.

Luca Petrasso was with Toronto last year and deployed primarily as a left-back, though he has some designations of wing back and winger as well. He made 23 appearances (21 starts) for Toronto, getting 2 assists. He’s made 2 league appearances and 1 start this year for Orlando, though he did also start both legs in CCL.

Michael Halliday is a young (20) fullback for Orlando. He’s come up through their organization and is actually in his 4th season with the club. He’s made 15 appearances (6 starts) over the past 3 years. Although he made just 6 (0 starts) appearances for 50 minutes last year, that’s not really surprising. Last year–and in the previous 3 prior years–Orlando had Ruan as their starting RB. With Ruan now in DC, it seems Orlando is giving Halliday a legitimate shot.

He’s appeared in all 3 of Orlando’s league games, making 2 starts, and started in both legs of their UANL tie. Being such a young player, there’s not much data to go on, but the fact that Orlando felt comfortable moving on from Ruan probably says it all.

The final defender that has appeared for Orlando is Rafael Santos. He’s in his first season with Orlando having joined from Coritiba in the Brazilian league. Over the past 3 years he’s bounced around a bit: Ponte Preta in 2021; Cruzeiro and Coritiba in 2022; Orlando currently. He’s made 55 appearances (47 starts) over this time. He has 3 career goals and 4 assists to his name, all back in 2021 with Ponte Preta.

Goalkeeping

Orlando has 4 keepers on their roster: Javier Otero, Mason Stajduhar, Adam Grinwis, and Pedro Gallese. Otera has never made a senior appearance and Grinwis has only done so in 2 years: 2021 (2 starts) and 2018 (5 starts). Stajduhar appears to be the backup. He made 2 starts last year and 5 starts in 2021.

The #1 is Gallese. The 33-year-old is off to a strong start in his 4th season with Orlando. He’s made 76 starts for the club, including 32 last year. In terms of raw numbers, last year was not a good year for Gallese. He allowed 47 goals (1.47 goals per 90), only had a 65.9% save percentage, and had a -2.2 PSxG+/-.

Until this year, the goals per 90 have actually increased for Gallese each year since he joined Orlando: 1.05 GA90 in 2020 (19 starts), 1.36 GA90 in 2021 (22 starts), and 1.47 GA90 last year. So far this year, he’s bounced back in a big way with a 0.33 GA90 in th league. He almost single-handedly kept Orlando in their games with Tigres by making a ton of really good saves. Gallese’s save percentage in 73.2% in 2020 and 70.8% in 2021. It’s a ridiculous 92.3% this year.

His PSxG+/- was okay in both 2020 (+2.4) and 2021 (+3.0). This year it’s already at +1.5. Now there is still plenty of time for this number to come down (Kahlina began last year with a strong PSxG+/- but finished in the negatives). Gallese is currently 4th in the league in PSxG+/-.

Gallese Goalkeeping percentiles vs. 2022 MLS GKs
Gallese Advanced Goalkeeping percentiles vs. 2022 MLS GKs

There’s not much that jumps out in his percentiles. He’s clearly not a bad keeper, but I tend to trust history over a 3-5 game stretch. Maybe this is a career year for Gallese, or maybe it’s a good run. If I had to bet, I’d say he comes down to earth a bit as the year goes on. Let’s hope that starts Saturday.

Conclusion

Desperate times indeed for Charlotte. Many will be calling this a “must-win” for the club and, while I see the logic behind that, I don’t know that I fully agree. Road games are tough in any league. Charlotte is historically very bad on the road. You offer me a draw right now and I’m biting your hand off for it.

The main source of hope for Charlotte probably comes in Orlando’s midweek CCL fixture. How much–if any–has that game fatigued them, both physically and mentally. With the crazy, and ultimately disappointing end, you have to hope a lot.

The second place to pin some hope is that Carlos is at least one more game away from being able to start. Otherwise, their biggest weakness gets patched. One player will not solve their aerial issues, but he will certainly provide a big boost.

From a Charlotte perspective, let’s not beat around the bush. Świderski on the right has not, is not, and will not work. If he’s going to start, Karol needs to be returned to the center of the pitch; it’s a game and a half late for this.

Wing production continues to be an issue for this team. The national media has latched onto Jóźwiak’s lack of production. While I think some of the criticism is unfair (I think he’s been one of our better players on the season), it’s not completely unfair. Charlotte has a goal differential of -6, has scored 1 goal, and was noncompetitive against Atlanta. Jóźwiak has not scored a goal in 92 league games. I’m a fan, but the reality is we need end production from him.

Instead of Świderski on the right, it’s time for Vargas to get the start. I’m a staunch Gaines supporter, but Vargas has earned a start. Each time he’s seen the pitch, he looks bright.

In midfield, while I’m dying to see Nuno Santos get a start, I don’t think it happens. I think we’ll see Świderski, Westwood, and Jones in the midfield.

Editor’s note: for information about how many of us feel about Jones at this current moment, check out our Wednesday pod. I’ll simply speak for myself here and say he was exceedingly bad, in my opinion.

The Bronico experiment at LB is not going well. I understand what CL wants from Bronico in that position, but Atlanta’s attacks all seemed to target that side. Wiley’s two goals were moves that ended on the right of our defense, but the thrusts of those attacks came on the left. The easiest answer to our backline issues is to buy a left back. If that is not going to happen (and I’m pessimistic it will), it feels like it’s either growing pains with Brandt or an uninspiring play from Mora/Afful.

On the other flank, Byrne has not been good. I refuse to believe that his skills have atrophied over a single off-season to the point he’s unplayable. I don’t know what has happened, but I believe the answer lies in how CL has been deploying his fullbacks. I don’t see a world in which Lindsey starts.

At center back, there is really no reason to change. I don’t think either of Tuiloma or Malanda were great against Atlanta, but that could be said of the entire team. Neither had obvious errors like they did against St. Louis, but both were culpable, to varying degrees, in the goals that were scored. Malanda was especially bad on the first goal.

Sisniega had a rough go of it, too. I’m not sure any of the goals can be fully placed on him, but I would like my goalie to save one of them. Sometimes you just need an unlikely save to keep you in the game and Pablo wasn’t able to do that for us. Is this fair? Probably not, but it’s how I feel. The Araújo goal is the one I really want him to save. I tend to be unfairly critical of goalies, especially when they get beat near-post.

This has not been the start of the season any of us wanted. It’s still too early to declare this season dead, but results need to start happening. Orlando is a good team, but they’re not elite (yet; the talent is real). They’ve had a ton of roster turnover in the past couple of years and started a number of young players who are new to the league. I think there’s a lot of talent in that squad, but I don’t know that they outclass us to the point that it’s impossible to get a positive result. Containing Torres and preventing Pereyra from dictating the game will be key.

Prediction: Orlando 1 – Charlotte 1

Data Notes: All heatmaps come fromSofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come fromFBref.com. All formation graphics are from MLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us,Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com

The 2023 Atlanta Preview, Pt. 1

I’ve seen a lot of panic amongst the Charlotte faithful this week. Starting with 2 losses–one against a new expansion club–will do that. However, I want to provide some hope.

First, last year, Charlotte started with 3 straight losses, getting outscored 6-1 and 4-0 in the first 2 games. We’ve only been outscored 4-1 so far this year! Progress!

In all seriousness, though, even with the poor start last year, Charlotte still managed 42 points and barely missed out on the playoffs. Now, some among you may then blame this poor start for us missing out. There is an argument for that. However, I would point to the run of games in late August-early September as what did us in.

We lost 2-1 to Orlando at home on 8/21, followed that up with a 2-0 loss at home to Toronto on 8/27, and then lost on the road to Cincinnati 2-0 on 9/3. Cincinnati and Orlando both finished above us, with the latter getting the 7th seed with 48 points. Toronto finished 13th in the East last year on 34 points.

The point is, a run of bad games can happen. You can’t dig too deep a hole, but I’m simply not panicked yet. I’m not alone in that amongst my colleagues here at The Crown Cast. Unlike Joseph Lowery, who has us as an 8/10 on the panic meter, Logan and I are only at a 4. Justin is a bit higher at a 5, while Euan is lower at a 3. A blowout loss might change things but as of now, I’m feeling ok.


Is good Atlanta back?

Atlanta is currently 4th in the East on 4 points, having won (2-1 at home against San Jose) and drawn (1-1 against Toronto at home) in each of their first two games.

It’s too early to say if this Atlanta team will be back to its normal standard, but I think the indications are good. They’ve turned over the roster, kept talent from last year, and added some exciting talent this year.

Lineups

Atlanta vs. San Jose, 2/25
Atlanta vs. Toronto, 3/4

The first thing to notice is that the only change made was up top at striker where Jackson Conway was replaced by Miguel Berry. What’s really worrying about this is two of Atlanta’s big offseason signings–Derrick Etienne, Jr. (I wanted him badly for Charlotte) and Giorgos Giakoumakis (new DP striker)–have yet to start. Giakoumakis came off the bench against Toronto for 31 minutes, while Etienne has come off the bench in both games.

Caleb Wiley, who is listed as a defender on both Atlanta’s site and FBref, has started both games. Last year he saw a good amount of action (26 appearances, 18 starts) as a 17-year-old. According to FBref, he was all over the place, including LB, LW, CM, DM, and WB. Etienne played really well last year for Columbus on the left. I expect him to take that position over at some point soon.

What I think is most impressive about this team, at least on paper, is the depth. We’ll get into their players in a bit, but they have a lot of young talent, veteran leadership, and experience across almost every position.

Injury Report

Last week’s MLS Availability Report had 4 players out for Atlanta: midfielder Ozzie Alonso (ACL recovery) and forwards Tyler Wolff (shoulder), Machop Chol (hamstring), and Giakoumakis (visa). Obviously, Giakoumakis’ visa issue was settled by the game last weekend as he featured.

I wouldn’t expect to see Alonso in this game. He’s a good player and was a big loss for them last season but he is also 37 years old now. That recovery will take time.

As far as Chol and Wolff go, I don’t know their status. Chol only saw 80 minutes of game time over 6 appearances last year, so his inclusion or absence is probably not noteworthy.

Wolff got into 5 games last year (4 starts) but failed to score or record an assist. He also had a short loan spell to SK Beveren in the Belgian Second Division. He was recalled in January having only made 5 appearances (0 starts) for only 41 minutes. He didn’t appear in a game for Atlanta after an April 2nd match against DC. I’m not sure why. Wolff is a talented player, but Atlanta has reinforced their squad. He’ll have a battle for time.

Editor’s note: More on this further down, but looks unlikely that Matheus Rossetto will be playing for them.

Attack

Josef Martínez is no more in Atlanta. Having parted ways (in a somewhat ugly fashion), Atlanta loses a great of their young club. I imagine he will remain a great for that club, though. In his stead, Atlanta turns to Thiago Almada to run the attack.

The 21-year-old Argentinian is a monster talent. He only played in one game for Argentina at the World Cup, and only got in for 7 minutes. But the fact that a 21-year-old MLS player even made it on that squad speaks volumes about his talent (and the growth of this league). It’s not bold to say that he will not be long in this league. Europe will come calling.

Last year Almada made an immediate impact for Atlanta, getting into 29 games (25 starts) and recording 6 goals (6.0 xG) and 7 assists (7.6 xGA). The goals and assists are pretty much bang on those expected numbers, which is pretty impressive. He’s already at 2 goals (0.5 xG) and 1 assist (0.2 xGA) for the season, including single-handedly winning the game for Atlanta against SJ in STOPPAGE TIME:

The man can and will take over games. These goals are ridiculous and help explain his poor xG for this year, but if he can score these types of goals, he will score more common ones too. The xG from last year doesn’t show luck with his goal-scoring or contributing.

Almada heatmap, 2022 MLS season
Almada heatmap, 2023 MLS season

These heatmaps could be used as an exemplar for a CAM. He’s all over the opponent’s half of the pitch and will venture into the box as well. There is a bit of a left-sided bias, so Malanda, Byrne, and whoever is playing as the 6 and right-sided 8 will need to be aware.

Almada wants to dominate the ball, as he should. He was at 73.5 touches/90 last year and is at a ridiculous 97.0 this year. You’re not going to keep him off the ball. The trick is to contain him when he has it.

I mean, you just kind of have to laugh at the ridiculousness of these percentiles. This is Almada vs. 2022 MLS CAMs/wingers. Can you say elite? Sure, there are odd issues. The low touches in the attacking penalty are surprising, but he also doesn’t carry into the penalty area much. That then seems to be a feature of his play, not a deficiency. Honestly, the fact that he’s going to score 6-8 goals, if not more, but also pass this well is terrifying.

Atlanta bought Almada for $15.34M; they are going to sell him for a lot more. I would be surprised if, by the end of the summer window, he’s still in Atlanta.

Elsewhere in the attack, you’ll find the aforementioned Etienne, Giakoumakis Conway, and Berry, as well as Luis Araújo.

Etienne had 9 goals and 6 assists in 33 appearances (25 starts) last year for Columbus. As a wing player, that is excellent. Whereas Almada will stay out of the box, Etienne loves to be in there. He was in the 94th percentile for touches in the attacking penalty area/90 vs. 2022 MLS CAMs/wingers.

Giakoumakis is their new DP striker who they acquired for $4.22M from Celtic. Giakoumakis absolutely lit up the Eredivisie for a year with VVV-Venlo. During the 2020-21 season, he made 30 appearances (30 starts) for VVV-Venlo, scoring 26 goals and getting 1 assist. A whopping 8 of those goals were penalties, however, 18 non-PK goals are nothing to sneeze at. This performance got him his move to Celtic where he had a promising first year. In 2021-22, he made 21 appearances (11 starts), scoring 13 goals (12 non-PK goals) and getting 1 assist. His playing time bottomed out this year, though. He made 19 appearances but only had 4 starts (698 total minutes). He did get 6 goals and an assist during this time.

His heatmaps above (left: 2022/23 with Celtic, right: 2021/22 with Celtic) show a guy who likes to be in the penalty box around the goal. There are goals in his boots; I don’t doubt he’ll get quite a few with Atlanta this year.

While Conway and Berry both got the starts to begin the year, both are bit players. In the case of Conway, he’s still very young (21) while Berry is a bit of a journeyman already (although he’s only 25). Conway has yet to score a goal in MLS, but was prolific last year for Atlanta 2 (11 goals and an assist in 25 appearances). Berry, meanwhile, scored 8 goals for Columbus in 2021 in 18 appearances (9 starts). Since then, he’s made 16 appearances (13 starts) for Columbus (2022), 14 appearances (8 starts) for DC (2022), and 2 appearances (1 start) for Atlanta. He has scored 2 goals (both for Columbus) in all of those appearances.

Finally, there is Araújo. He joined Atlanta in 2021 for $11.50M from Lille in Ligue 1. He was 24 when he joined. Believe it or not, the year previous (2020-21), it was Lille who won Ligue 1 (not PSG).

Araújo spent 4 years at Lille, making 108 appearances and 54 starts. He scored 14 goals and had 8 assists, including 4 goals and 2 assists in his final season with them (when he made 27 appearances and 17 starts for the league winners). Yes, Atlanta signed a guy, entering his prime, from a title-winning team in one of Europe’s Big 5.

In his first year with Atlanta, Araújo made 15 appearances (13 starts), scoring 4 goals and getting 3 assists. Last year, he made 28 appearances (26 starts), scoring 4 goals and getting 5 assists. So far this year, he has played the full 90 of both games but is yet to get on the scoresheet.

Araújo is an interesting case because there is some belief he hasn’t quite lived up to the billing. In some ways, I get that argument, but, also, he’s never scored more than 5 goals in a season in his career (and that was in 2017-18). He is constantly between 2-4 goals and 2-3 assists per year. Whether that kind of return should be viewed as a disappointment for a wing DP is up to the reader. Based on his track record, though, I think that’s about what should have been expected of him.

To be honest, I’m not sure why he came here. I’m not a serious follower of the French league. It would seem he would have had options to remain in Europe if Lille were looking to offload him. Perhaps there weren’t? Or perhaps Atlanta offered the best deal? If anyone knows, I’d love to hear it. Regardless, Araújo will play on the right of Atlanta’s attack. Once Etienne and Gaikoumakis find their way into the starting lineup, Atlanta will boast one of the best front 4s in MLS (at least on paper).

Midfield

Atlanta’s FBref page lists 5 midfielders: Franco Ibarra, Matheus Rossetto, Amar Sejdic, Ajani Fortune, and the aforementioned Almada. For reasons that are hopefully obvious, I have included Almada in the “Attack” section. The official MLS site lists a further 6 midfielders: Ezequiel Barco, Marcelino Moreno, Santiago Sosa, Erik Centeno, the injured Alonso, and Etienne, who has also been included in the “Attack.”

Barco, Moreno, and Centeno are all out on loan. Sosa has yet to make an appearance this year, though he made 21 last year. He hasn’t made an appearance for the club since 10/1 against NE. During the game, he used a homophobic slur against the Revolution earning him a fine and a 3-match suspension. He’s currently listed as “unavailable” on Atlanta’s site, so I’m assuming it’s still fallout from his use of the slur. He didn’t make the bench for either of the first two matches. Fortune is a 20-year-old who has yet to make an appearance for the club.

The two starters in both games have been Ibarra and Rossetto, with Sejdic coming off the bench in both games (for a total of 12 minutes). Sejdic did play a lot for Atlanta last year (23 appearances, 18 starts), but some of that was due to injury. He’s a good depth to have and will probably push for a starter’s position. Ibarra made 20 appearances (11 starts) last year, getting one assist. Rossetto started 19 games (24 total appearances) and also had one assist. Rossetto does have a goal on the year, but neither is in the team to score.

Rossetto has been with Atlanta since 2020 and has made 62 appearances (46 starts). He’s an excellent buildup passer, as his percentiles show:

Rossetto passing percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs

Yeah, that’s basically everything you want from a deep-lying playmaker. Additionally, he likes to dominate the ball (80.90 touches/90) and is able to carry it well (96th percentile for progressive carrying distance). Defensively, he’s nothing to write home about but does like to regain the ball up the pitch (77th percentile for tackles in the attacking 3rd). He’s not bad defensively, but I’d label him as below-average overall.

Ibarra is the yin to Rossetto’s yang. The 21-year-old Argentinian arrived in Atlanta in 2021 as a 19-year-old. He immediately started playing in the first team, making 16 appearances and 9 starts. Last year he made 20 appearances and had 11 starts. At only 5’8.5″ and 152 lbs, Ibarra doesn’t fit the mold of a defensive destroyer, but he is.

Ibarra defensive percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs

It’s clear that Ibarra is in this team to clean up any attacks. These numbers, especially for a (then) 20-year-old, are superb. Unlike Rossetto, he’s not a good passer (56th percentile for passes completed, 49th percentile for progressive passing distance, 47th percentile for total passing distance) nor is he great on the ball (33rd percentile for take-ons attempted, 42nd percentile for carries, 3rd percentile for progressive carries). He doesn’t have to be, though. Soccer is about balance and Atlanta has it in this midfield pairing.

With attackers like Almada and Araújo and passers like Rossetto, you don’t need another offensive-minded player. You need someone who will retain possession, regain possession, and snuff out the danger. Ibarra most certainly does that.

Sejdic, who has come off the bench so far this year, is a good balance of Rossetto and Ibarra. He’s a better passer than Ibarra, but only an above-average one. He’s a really good defender, but not quite as good as Ibarra. As a player to see a game out, he’s perfect. As a player to fill in for either starter, he’s a great option. If Rossetto has to sit, you’d lose some passing ability in the midfield but the defensive nous would be incredibly high. If he had to replay Ibarra, the defensive drop would be minimal but you would add some passing range. I’m a bit jealous of this trio.

Editor’s note: It appears that Rossetto is likely to miss the match. While I believe that this will be a big miss for Atlanta, their fans very much disagree. In the words of many of their fans, he’s “mid.”

Unfortunately, none of them in this thread could give me a good reason for this belief. I was just told either 1) he passes sideways (which the above numbers show is not true; 82nd in progressive passes is the antithesis of “just passing sideways”) and 2) “trust me, bro.” That kind of argument is the one that makes me most upset. I’m willing to admit that I have missed something with Rossetto and that I am perhaps overrating him. I need a better reason than an “eye test” without actual analysis.

Defense

There was a time last year when Atlanta and Charlotte were both fielding an Alan Franco. Alas, our Franco has long departed (the club, not the Earth) and Atlanta has also moved theirs on. To replace Franco’s 31 starts at center back, Atlanta has signed Luis Abrams from Granada, though he only has one appearance off the bench for 11 minutes. Abrams spent the past 2 seasons on loan at Cruz Azul in Liga MX, making 25 appearances (18 starts).

In reality, Abram isn’t the one who will be replacing Franco; Juan José Sánchez and Miles Robinson will. Sánchez is in his 2nd year with Atlanta, having joined from UANL in Liga MX. He made 17 appearances (16 starts) last year and scored an amazing 6 goals. Considering those are the only goals of his 6 season career, I don’t know that I would expect a repeat of them. Robinson is in his 7th season with the club, having made 98 appearances (87 starts). He only got into 9 games (8 starts) last season after having 26 appearances in 2021 due to an Achilles tendon injury. Thankfully, he appears to have fully recovered from that injury.

Robinson is a good passer from the back (82nd percentile for passes completed, 95th percentile for progressive passes, and 73rd percentile for key passes). He’s not a great long-range passer (45th percentile for long passes completed), but he also doesn’t attempt that many of them (46th percentile for long passes attempted). Defensively, he’s tough to get around (93rd percentile for challenges lost) and has good positioning (99th percentile for blocks, 82nd percentile for shots blocked, 98th percentile for passes blocked). Sánchez is just an average passer but shows a similar ability to read the game (88th percentile for blocks, 63rd percentile for shots blocked, 92nd percentile for passes blocked). Neither is overly threatening in the air (Robinson: 68th percentile of aerials won; Sánchez: 77th percentile in aerials won), but both are serviceable.

Abram looks like a stereotypical depth (probably 4th choice) center-back. Nothing jumps out in his percentiles (in his case being compared to 2022/23 Liga MX CBs) except that he’s terrible in the air (1st percentile for aerials won).

The other defender in this center-back equation is George Campbell. The 21-year-old American has yet to appear in a game this year, but got into 35 over the past 2 seasons, including 20 appearances last year. While he’s mainly been deployed as a CB, he has had a couple of games in the midfield (in a pinch). To me, he would appear to be their 3rd choice with Abram as depth.

Atlanta has some really good and interesting pieces at fullback. The two starters are Andrew Gutman and Brooks Lennon, while Aiden McFadden (0 appearances this year, 11 last year) and Ronald Hernández (0 appearances this year, 13 last year) provide depth.

Gutman and Lennon are the kinds of fullbacks Charlotte fans are clamoring for, but not the types that I think Lattanzio is looking for. Just look at these maps:

Gutman heatmap 2022
Lennon heatmap 2022

My god, is Lennon even a fullback or just another winger? The answer is winger, as Araújo very much likes to come inside. These types of bombarding fullbacks are what I think most fans expect to see, but as I talked about on Twitter, that’s not what CL is looking for (these are decently long threads there, so check out the full things if you have interest).

Last year was Gutman’s first in Atlanta. He made 25 appearances (22 starts), scoring 4 times and getting 1 assist. Fun fact: Gutman began his professional career with Charlotte in the USL Championship back in 2019.

Lennon is in his 4th season with Atlanta, making 82 appearances (73 starts) during this time. He has 4 goals and 14 assists for Atlanta, including a 2-goal, 6-assist season last year.

These guys both like to get down the sidelines. Coupled with Rossetto and Almada’s passing ability, it makes for dangerous situations. Atlanta is currently leading the league in possession at 63.5%. With the way they push these fullbacks up, that’s no surprise. If they don’t have the ball, they’re at serious risk of the counter. Charlotte is going to need to be smart, decisive, and quick with the ball when in transition.

Goalkeeping

Old–and I use that term literally–friend Brad Guzan continues to man the sticks for Atlanta. Behind him is his geriatric companion Quentin Westberg (36), who was acquired for free from Toronto. Clément Diop, 29, was also acquired on a free from New England. Diop never appeared for NE last year and made just 3 appearances for Miami. Westberg, meanwhile, made 10 appearances for Toronto in each of the past 2 seasons. He did play a few games in the French Ligue 2 (13 starts for Auxerre in 2018-19 being the most), so, as a backup, he’s not a terrible option.

Guzan is obviously meant to be the starter. Like Robinson above, Guzan ruptured his Achilles last year, missing most of the year (he only had 7 starts last year). Now in his 7th season with Atlanta United, the former Aston Villa keeper is…okay.

The raw numbers still look decent: 1.32 goals allowed/90 (GA90) in 2022; 1.00 GA90 in 2021; 1.30 GA90 in 2020; 1.26 GA90 in 2019. The advanced metrics aren’t so kind. Over these 5 years, he’s had 2 seasons in the positive: 2019 when his PSxG+/- was +0.4, and 2021 when it was legitimately good at +4.9. Otherwise, he’s been in the negative including years of -1.9 (2020), -1.1 (2022), and -0.5 so far this year. Now, he’s not terrible by any stretch but he’s a 38-year-old goalkeeper. A decline is normal and to be expected. On a good team, he’s still a fine option.

Where he does still excel is in his reading of the game. Fair warning that due to his injury, last year’s percentile ranks do constitute a small sample size. With that said, he was in the 62nd percentile of crosses faced, but the 96th percentile for crosses stopped and the 99th percentile for crosses stopped percentage. This shouldn’t worry us Charlotte fans at all since our crossing is so terrible that we weren’t going to score that route anyway.

Conclusion

Saturday is not a game that has me confident. Almada is so much better than I thought. On paper, Ibarra and Rossetto form a perfectly complimentary midfield pivot. Araújo is good on the right wing. Both their fullbacks are really good going forward. They dominate possession. They haven’t even started Etienne or Giakoumakis yet. In some ways getting them right now might be a slightly good thing, as Giakoumakis might still not be ready to start for them. On the other hand, I’m not sure how much it’s going to matter.

Against San Jose, Atlanta had 20 shots with 5 shots on goal. Against Toronto, they had 16 shots with 6 shots on goal. That’s 36 shots and 11 shots on goal in two games. Charlotte is at 21 shots and 8 shots on goal for their 2 games. Atlanta dominated possession in each of these games (60.4% against SJ, 66.7% against TOR). Against Toronto, they made 619 passes with a 90% passing accuracy. I’m going to say that again: 90% passing accuracy on 619 passes.

Let’s also not forget that they’ve only allowed 2 goals on the season. San Jose scored 52 goals last year (10th in the league), while Toronto scored 48 (13th in the league). These are not slouches on offense. Yes, Toronto was missing Insigne, which can’t be ignored, but the game plan of Atlanta seems clear. Dominate possession, pass the ball around, and let the attackers eventually win.

I was much more pessimistic about this game when Rossetto was going to play (though I can’t say I’m optimistic…). First, I do believe he’s a good player, especially for the system they are playing, regardless of what Atlanta fans have told me. Second, it seems that they will not just be plugging Sejdić into the system in his place. In Jones’ tweet, he mentions that ATL’s coach Pineda said they are not “set up for two 6s” without Rossetto. This would indicate to me that Rossetto’s absence might also necessitate a change in formation/tactics. If so, it’s always a good thing to me when a team is forced off of their first choice gameplan.

On the Charlotte side of things, Lattanzio has come out and said that the Bronico experiment at LB will continue.

This is good news to me. I’m hoping we see some tactical complexity come into the squad as he learns the role. For this week, it’ll be a tough challenge for him. Atlanta is a good attacking team.

I don’t expect many changes to the team we saw against St. Louis, though I am hoping for 2.

First, I need Świderski to be back in the middle of the pitch. RW did not work for him. On that wing, I do think I would give Vargas the start. He’s looked so bright to start this season; it feels deserved. While I do want Nuno to start, I’m not sure CL is there yet. A midfield of Świderski-Westwood-DJ is the next best option.

I expect Malanda and Tuiloma to bounce back from their mistakes against STL. That bad pass is the only time I can remember Malanda putting a foot wrong. Tuiloma was unlucky, as he did everything but the timing of his jump correctly. The big piece in the backline is Byrne at RB. He was so good last year in his first appearances for the club. This team needs him to get back to that level. We can’t be trying to figure out both fullback positions at the same time.

Prediction: Charlotte 1 – Atlanta 2

Data Notes: All heatmaps come from Sofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come from FBref.com. All formation graphics are from MLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us, Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com.

The 2023 St. Louis Preview

On Saturday, Charlotte travels to the new kids on the block: St. Louis City SC. The coverage around STL has frustrated a lot of Charlotte fans; there seems to have been a much more positive narrative around them than us. You can even look at Fox Soccer’s (now deleted) Tweet that simply ignores the existence of Charlotte.

Personally, I don’t care that much. St. Louis can be the darlings of the media (even if I’m not quite sure that is completely true). What does intrigue me is the fact that STLCSC (too many letters) just beat last year’s Western Conference Semi-Finalists on the road.

Now, their win did include this bizarre goal:

The scorer of this goal–Jared Stroud–was on Austin FC last year. Kipp Keller, the Austin defender in the clip, passes it back to him, out of what appears to be sheer muscle memory. This takes absolutely nothing away from their win–a goal is a goal. But man is this a bizarre thing to see.

In fact, the winner is a really good (mostly) individual goal.

The clip makes it kind of hard to see, but the penultimate pass was really good, while the timing of the run and the individual skill that followed were excellent. The goalscorer for the winner was Klauss, STL’s Brazilian DP (full name: João Klauss de Melo).

There’s obviously not much game tape or stats to be had on STL yet, so we’ll be looking at some of their big names, big signings, and the Austin game.

Austin Game

STLCSC Starting XI at. Austin FC, 2/25/23

According to the official MLS site, STL was in a 4-2-3-1 for the entire game. Based on this sole game, I shall make the bold claim that’s the formation they play.

In many ways, St. Louis was outplayed. Here’s a brief look at the stats from the game.

Game stats STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23

Austin dominated possession, they had 150 more passes, and they had a 10% higher pass accuracy. What they didn’t do, though, was turn that possession into meaningful attacks (seems familiar, eh, Charlotte fans?). St. Louis outshot Austin, both in terms of total shots and shots on goal. While Austin was clinical in their finishing (2 goals from 2 shots on goal), they didn’t do much else.

xG Chart: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23

The xG for this game is eerily similar. Now, technically, St. Louis outproduced Austin by 0.5 xG, but remember that back pass to an opponent that led to a goal? Yeah, that had an xG of 0.49. Without that mistake, St. Louis probably doesn’t win this game.

Now, of all their (many) shots, and aside from the actual goals, STL isn’t taking good shots. The xG on their goals is as follows:

  • Parker: 0.14 xG
  • Stroud: 0.49 xG
  • Klauss: 0.22 xG

Aside from those 3 shots, only two other shots–a shot from Rasmus Alm with an xG of 0.30 in the 44th minute and a shot from John Vincent Nelson with an xG of 0.18 in the 74th minute–had an xG higher than 0.09. Most of these shots were actually incredibly low (0.01-0.05 xG). St. Louis got off a lot of shots, and that seems to be a philosophical strategy, but they weren’t very good ones.

Shot Map: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23

Charlotte was a bit vulnerable last year with shots in central areas just outside the box, so the fact STL isn’t scared to do that might be a problem. With that said, if a team’s primary method of scoring is to get goals from outside the box, they won’t be successful in the long term (not saying this is STL’s actual plan, by the way).

Passing Network: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23

The fact that #19, midfielder Indiana Vassilev, is basically disconnected from the entire team is fascinating. St. Louis doesn’t do much in the midfield. Off this one game, they seem to build through wide areas. For reference, here was Charlotte’s passing network from our opener.

Passing Network: CLT vs. NE, 2/25/23

In general, Charlotte’s passing network is something I plan to keep an eye on this year (also note how there is zero connection between Tuiloma and Mora), but it’s very different from St. Louis. Charlotte looked to maintain possession and build through their midfield (#8: Westwood, #13: Bronico).

The left side was targeted by STL against Austin. It remains to be seen if that was due to perceived deficiencies in Austin or if that’s the side St. Louis will look to build through. Looking at the players they have brought in (more on them later), I tend to think it’s the latter. Byrne and Malanda should take notice.

Looking at this game, Austin made a really costly mistake, didn’t take advantage of their possession, and St. Louis capitalized. I’m not sure Austin deserved to lose, but I don’t think this is a case where St. Louis didn’t deserve a win either. There is some luck involved, but overall, if you can go on the road to a good team and win while scoring 3, you deserve the 3 points.

Roman Bürki

St. Louis’ goalkeeper, Roman Bürki, is probably the biggest name on St. Louis’ roster. The former Borussia Dortmund keeper had a lot of success with Dortmund, but isn’t an otherworldly shot-stopper (as some in the media would have you believe). Bürki ended his Dortmund career with a 69.8% save percentage and 1.24 goals allowed/90.

PSxG+/- only goes back to the 2017-18 season. That year he had a +2.5 PSxG+/-, which is the only year it’s been positive. In 2018-19 he was at -1.0, in 2019-20 he was at -2.5, in 2020-21 he was at -1.6, and in 2021-22 he was at 0.0 (he had only 1 game this season).

In his last meaningful season with Dortmund (2020-21), he made 19 appearances (18 starts). The scouting report…isn’t great…

What is most troubling to me is that he’s not actually facing a ton of shots, but he’s allowing a decent number of goals. As someone who doesn’t follow Dortmund or the German Bundesliga closely, I can’t tell you if this was a result of poor play on his part or on Dortmund’s. Dortmund did finish 3rd that season, so it’s not like they were bad. Moreover, his 1.62 goals allowed per 90 was by far the highest of his career with the German club.

  • 2015-16: 1.03 GA90 (33 games)
  • 2016-17: 1.07 GA90 (27 games)
  • 2017-18: 1.30 GA90 (33 games)
  • 2018-19: 1.25 GA90 (32 games)
  • 2019-20: 1.30 GA90 (31 games)
  • 2020-21: 1.62 GA90 (19 games)

The trend is obviously not very good (i.e., the overall increase in GA90 then an explosion in 2020-21). However, goalkeeping and goals allowed are dependent on more factors than just a goalkeeper’s ability. Regardless, there does seem to be a decline.

For context, Dortmund’s new keeper, Gregor Kobel, had a 1.37 GA90 in 2021-22 (his first season as the starter). He currently has a 1.06 GA90 in 18 games this year.

Editor’s note: big thank you to @_Pancake_Papi for his fan perspective on Bürki. His thoughts mainly backed up the data that Bürki was good but, by the end of his time with Dortmund, fans felt it was time to move on. I imagine most of you already follow him on Twitter, but if you don’t, you absolutely should!

Klauss

Klauss is a 26-year-old DP for St. Louis. He began his career in the Brazilian youth ranks (Internacional, Juventude, Grêmio) before moving to 1899 Hoffenheim in 2017.

In 2018, he was sent on loan to HJK in the Finnish first division. He made 33 appearances (28 starts), scoring 21 goals and getting 1 assist. 3 of those goals were PKs, but 18 goals as a 20-year-old is still noteworthy.

Klauss’ next loan stop was LASK in the Austrian Bundesliga. He would spend two seasons (2018-19, 2019-20) with LASK, making 42 appearances (27 starts). He had 3 goals and 0 assists his first season (in 14 appearances), before rebounding for 12 goals (1 PK) and 4 assists in his 2nd season (28 appearances).

In the 2020-21 season, he finally made an appearance for Hoffenheim’s first team, but it would be the first of very few. In total, he made 4 appearances (51 total minutes) for Hoffenheim and failed to record a goal or assist. He spent the rest of the 2020-21 season on loan at Standard Liège in the Belgian First Division, making 13 appearances (10 starts) and getting 8 goal contributions (5 goals, 3 assists). He remained with Standard Liège for the 2021-22 season, making 19 appearances (15 starts) but scoring only once.

At some point during the 2021-22 season, his loan with Standard ended and he was loaned out to Sint-Truiden in the Belgian First Division. He would make 8 appearances (3 starts) for Sint-Truiden, scoring twice.

Klauss heatmap in the Belgian First Division
Klauss heatmap from MLS

As we can see from his heatmaps, Klauss is a pure center forward. There is a bit of a left-sided bias, but it’s not much. He’s a player who wants to stay central. At 6’2.5″ and 181 lbs, he makes for a physical player.

He’s an odd player to me. I’m not sure the scoring consistency is exactly what you would expect from a DP #9. For reference, his best two goalscoring seasons beat or tie Karol Świderski’s best season (12 goals in 2018-19), but Karol is consistently in the 10-goal-a-season range. Klauss’ production is…erratic.

Playing time can usually be looked at in cases like these, but he’s consistently gotten playing time at every stop–it just hasn’t always worked out. The difference in his two seasons at Standard Liège highlights this.

With that said, he’s hit the ground running with St. Louis. I’m curious to see which striker St. Louis ends up with. Will it be the “HJK-2nd-season-LASK-1st-season-Standard-Liège-Klauss?” If so, it’s a really good move.

Eduard Löwen

Löwen is St. Louis’ second DP that they’ve brought over from a German club. Like Klauss, Löwen is 26. Unlike Klauss, Löwen has a decent amount of experience playing in a top league.

Löwen began his career with Nürnberg in the German 2. Bundesliga. He made 65 appearances (52 starts) for Nürnberg over 3 seasons (2016-2019). In his final season with Nürnberg, they were in the Bundesliga (though they would finish 18th and be relegated). He scored 8 goals and had 7 assists during his time with the club, including a 5-goal, 4-assist season in 2017-2018.

He was loaned out to Augsburg during the 2019-20 season, before moving to Hertha Berlin that same season. In the 2019-20 season, he would make 23 appearances (9 starts) for Augsburg and Hertha. He had 2 goals and 1 assist for Augsburg, but failed to score or assist for Hertha. In 2020-21, he would only make 7 appearances (1 start) for Hertha and, again, failed to score or assist.

In 2021-22, he joined Bochum on loan, making 26 appearances (15 starts). He scored 2 goals (1 PK) and had 2 assists.

Like Klauss, this seems a player that showed potential before fizzling out a bit. Brought in by St. Louis to be a playmaker–like Klauss–he has gotten off to a good start, as he already has an assist.

Let’s take a look at some heatmaps (they go in reverse chronological order):

Löwen heatmap for 2023 MLS
Löwen heatmap for 2021-22 with Bochum
Löwen heatmap from 2019-20 with Ausburg and Hertha Berlin
Löwen heatmap for 2018-19 with Nürnberg
Löwen heatmap for 2017-18 with Nürnberg

Two things interest me about these heatmaps.

First, there isn’t a ton of consistency with them. The one consistent aspect of them is that there is a left-sided bias, except for the 2018-19 season when that bias is shifted towards the right (although he is all over the pitch). In 2019-20, it looks like he was mostly playing as a left-sided central midfielder.

Second, his most productive season, at least from a goal-contribution perspective, was 2017-18 when he was playing his deepest. Now, that is the year that Nürnberg earned promotion to the Bundesliga, finishing 2nd in the 2. Bundesliga. Perhaps that explains the production (i.e., he played for one of the best teams in that particular league). The second-best year for goal contribution was the next year, though, when Nürnberg was newly promoted. He’s not as deep as the 2017-18 season, but he’s further back than he will be in the subsequent years.

It appears that St. Louis is reverting him back somewhat to his positioning from those days. Although he was given the #10 shirt, he started and played as part of the double pivot in their 4-2-3-1.

It didn’t necessarily work out for him in the Bundesliga, but he seems a talented player. Importantly, he has experience playing against top competition in that league, which should prove useful. He won’t be facing a Bayern Munich in MLS.

Further, while St. Louis isn’t expected to be great this year, he’s mostly played at lower-level clubs in a top division. Due to the nature of American soccer and the structure of MLS, there’s greater upward mobility for clubs. The chances of a Bochum or Nürnberg seriously competing in the Bundesliga are infinitesimal. The chances of St. Louis–or any other MLS team–being able to go from a bottom feeder to a contender in a few years is absolutely possible (if not always likely).

Overall, it seems a smart move to me and someone who provides great experience for a new club, while also being relatively young.

Conclusion

There aren’t many solid conclusions that can be made from the first game of a new club. They have had a better start than Charlotte did, that’s for sure, but I’m curious to see how they hold up.

There are a few other players of note who do interest me on them. Njabulo Boom is a 23-year-old South African who was brought over from Kaizer Chiefs in the South African Premier Division. He made 69 appearances (53 starts) for them over 5 seasons, with most of those coming in the last 3. He had 4 assists for them in 2021-22. He came off the bench in the first game, replacing Vassilev.

Speaking of Vassilev, there’s talent there. This is a guy who had time with Aston Villa (mostly their junior team) and a couple of other English clubs in the lower divisions of England. He’s had two stints with Inter Miami, making 45 appearances (20 starts) and scoring 5 goals. At only 22, there’s still a lot of time for him. I am a bit confused about St. Louis’ decision to start him as a DM when it appears he’s mostly been a wide or attacking midfielder, with a bit of central midfield thrown in. Based on that passing chart, I’m not sure this experiment worked. It is just one game though.

Lastly, Isak Jensen is their YDP. He didn’t make an appearance during the first game and only has 19 career appearances (5 starts) for SønderjyskE in the Danish Superliga. I’m not sure what the plan with him is, but as a YDP, you have to imagine the 20-year-old will feature at some point.

From a Charlotte perspective, I don’t think we have to be overly concerned. I’m not convinced Bürki is very good anymore. He’ll probably be better in MLS than he was his last few years with Dortmund, but I’m not sure I see him being a wall. An average MLS goalkeeper seems likely to me.

The fact that St. Louis was able to score so many goals in their debut game worries me since Charlotte still can’t score. With that said, we have a number of new pieces, especially in attack.

There were moments in the New England game where you could tell that the connection between different players just wasn’t there yet. Early in the first half, there was a sequence where Westwood attempted a pass to Enzo Copetti. Copetti clearly expected Westwood to play him into space behind the line, while Westwood expected Enzo to want the ball at his feet. In the end, a Revs’ defender intercepted the ball. As these players get more game time together, I expect these types of miscommunications to decrease.

In the opener, I walked away thinking that Mora had a good game. I’ve heard from a number of places online that I might have that wrong. The supporter’s section offers a lot, but it doesn’t always allow for great analytical viewing. I do maintain that even if he was caught out a bit defensively, two things are still true. One, CL likes his FBs to play a bit inverted and that may have contributed to his perceived (or real) lack of good defensive positioning. Two, he had some of the better crosses for this game. On a team that struggled as a whole to produce dangerous crosses, this shouldn’t be overlooked. He might not have been quite as good as I thought when viewing him live, but I think he might have had an above-average Joseph Mora performance.

Our friends over at the Charlotte Soccer Show brought up the idea of Jóźwiak at LB. It’s not something I’m necessarily against, especially as it looks like we’re not bringing in a new LB (fingers crossed reverse psychology works!). With that said, I’m not convinced.

Our formation was listed as a 4-3-3, which confused me a bit. I’m still not sure Świderski can handle the #10 (though I have hope); I’m even less convinced he can be an #8.

I didn’t think he had a bad game overall, though his touch let him down a bit. The pass that led to the goal was absolutely atrocious and can’t be happening from one of our supposed leaders. I put 95% of that goal on Karol, though our tracking back did nothing to help matters. If you’re a masochist, go look back at that goal. At one point, there are 4 Charlotte players between 2 New England players and the goal. One of those NE players is Kessler, a CENTER BACK. Its…not good.

It was also interesting that when Shinyashiki came on, Andre didn’t go to the wings. Rather, Świderski did and, honestly, I thought Andre provided more through the middle of that game.

Aside from LB, the positions with the most questions over starters are the wings. The pitchforks are already out for Jóźwiak and Gaines. While I agree neither had a good game on Saturday, I think both deserve a few more games. This is especially true of Jóźwiak. I will also acknowledge that Vargas looked much better than either and he might be this year. I still want to see that kind of performance from him more consistently before I fully commit to it, but if that appearance was a new normal, then, yes, he should be starting.

In that same thread about Jóźwiak as a potential LB, I delve into Vargas’ numbers from last year. There isn’t much difference between the two and, in a number of categories, Jóźwiak outpaces him. Again, if the form he showed against NE is the new norm, then he must play.

To be honest, aside from maybe trying Afful out at LB (*shudder*), I wouldn’t change the lineup for St. Louis. I’d still have Jóźwiak and Gaines on the wings, with Vargas as the first off the bench for either if they’re struggling.

I would really like to see Nuno Santos get some time this weekend, though not on the wing. I’ve heard he played there over the preseason and maybe it can work. I just have my doubts. More importantly, I just get the feeling he’d be better in the middle of the park. No, I don’t know where he’d play in the midfield with our current players and formations.

I’m sure the atmosphere in St. Louis will be electric on Saturday, but I’m hopeful about this game. Let’s go spoil a party.

Prediction: St. Louis 1 – Charlotte 2

Data Notes: All heatmaps come from Sofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come from FBref.com. All formation graphics are from MLSsoccer.com. Other websites used for data include transfermarkt.us, Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com.

The 2023 New England Preview, Pt. 1

We are back!!!!!

After a few months away, Charlotte FC will finally be playing meaningful games back at the Bank. As Year Two rolls in, expectations amongst the fanbase are high. Nationally, the outlook is more mixed.

Many fans might be surprised by the relative lack of belief in this team. On average, we’re looking at these experts predicting a 10th-place finish for Charlotte (9.9167 repeating, to be exact). I personally think they could be a playoff team. My money is on them getting around 48 points, which would (historically) be good for about 7th or 8th place. Obviously, Andrew Wiebe is our new favorite media (sorry Bogert!).

Kljestan, Lowery, Ortiz, Slaton, and Bradley Wright-Philips’ 13th-place finish predictions all seem overly negative, at least to me, but it must be admitted that this is a team with some serious issues and question marks.

The acquisition of Bill Tuiloma does assuage some concerns I have regarding center-back, but left-back has not been touched. It remains a terrifying proposition to have Harrison Afful or Joseph Mora as our starter there for the entire season. Additionally, we will be starting the season without our #1 keeper in Kahlina, though there is an argument to be made that outside of his first 7-10 games, he wasn’t overly impressive. I’m not sure how many are ready to hear that, though.

Finally, Jóźwiak, Świderski, and Copetti represent 3 DPs with huge question marks. I’m a firm believer in Kamil and Karol, but I’m not sure either lived up to the billing of a DP. Well, we can actually be honest and say that Jóźwiak definitely didn’t. While the 10 goals and 4 assists were nice, you probably want a bit more from a DP #9 (or #10), in Karol’s case.

Enzo has me excited but this is a player with a limited (albeit good) track record, coming to a new league and country, returning from serious injury, and learning a new language. To say that he might need an adjustment period is an understatement. The unfortunate reality, though, is that he and Charlotte can’t afford an adjustment period. This team desperately needs goals and if it takes him a while to get off the mark, it probably won’t be a good thing for this club.


My previews usually consist of a look at the previous games for clubs, as well as their overall stats. With this being the first game of the season, those are not available. While I could look at last year’s formations and such (and I will to a degree), I think it might be more useful to look at who NE has added to this roster for the 2023 season.

Last year was a down one for New England. The 2021 record-setters found themselves finishing 10th in the East with 42 points (a 31-point decrease from 2021!), a -3 goal differential, and a -9.0 xG differential.

To me, their issues seem twofold. One, they had an aging roster. Two–and probably more important for last year’s team–they lost Adam Buksa midway through the year. The 25-year-old Polish striker had 7 goals and 2 assists in 10 games (9 starts) for them. Their leading goalscorer last year, Gustavo Bou, only had 8 goals and 2 assists in 19 games, while the 2nd top goal-getter, Carles Gil, had only 7 goals (but 9 assists!) in 33 games. No one else had more than 4. New England, like Charlotte, could not score.

Since last summer, NE has effectively secured 5 new players: CF Giacomo Vrioni (24), old Charlotte friend (?) Christain Makoun (22), CAM Latif Blessing (26), CF Bobby Wood (30), and CB Dave Romney (29). They made a few more moves during the summer of last season, but a number of those players (former Charlotte draftee Ismael Tajouri-Shradi among them!) are no longer with the club. These acquisitions haven’t necessarily done much to drastically reduce the age of this squad, but they have targeted a number of younger players. Three players in particular interest me: Vrioni, Blessing, and Romney. We’re all intimately familiar with the Makoun experience and Wood, now 30, has made enough appearances with USMNT to be familiar to most. Also, Wood has scored 6 total goals in the past 5 seasons, so I’m not sure how much we should care about him in general. This appears a pure depth move by NE.

(Fun Fact: Wood had 17 goals and 4 assists in 2015-16 for Union Berlin. For the rest of his career, which spans 12 seasons, he has 22 goals, along with 4 seasons of 0 goals. This man has started for the USMNT. Sigh…)

Giacomo Vrioni

Vrioni is DP who joined from Juventus last summer for $3.89M. Like Charlotte’s DPs, he’s mostly still an unknown.

He began his career with Sampdoria, though he never made an appearance. He would go on to play for Venezia in Serie B (2018-19), where he made 24 appearances but only had 1 goal and 1 assist. In 2019-20, he had appearances for Cittadella in Serie B (4 apps, 1 assist, 0 goals) and Juventus (1 appearance, 0 goals, 0 assists). He was on loan last year with WSG Tirol in the Austrian Bundesliga, where he made 25 appearances (20 starts) and had 20 goal contributions (17 goals and 3 assists), according to FBref. Wyscout does have him at 19 goals and 4 assists for these appearances. Transfermarkt has him at 17 goals but 4 assists, while SofaScore has him at 17 goals and 3 assists. I’m not quite sure why there is this discrepancy, but it appears that Wyscout is giving him 2 more goals than he should have. Of his goals this season, 3 were PKs. His move to NE produced 7 appearances (2 starts) but only 1 goal (a PK).

When scoring, he is predominately a left-footer. Note: I’m using Wyscout’s 19 goal total for this because they have a handy breakdown of how he scored (left foot, right foot, head). Keep in mind the goal discrepancy they have (i.e., 2 more than other sources).

  • Left foot: 10
  • Right foot: 3
  • Head: 5

It should also be remembered that he had 3 penalties and, as he’s a left-footer, those inflate his total a bit for that side. Still, he’s a tall man who scores how you would expect: with his primary foot or head.

Listed at 6’2″ and 172 lbs, Vrioni is in the mold of Buksa (who is 6’3″ and 172 lbs). NE obviously sees Vrioni as Buksa’s long-term replacement, but the question remains can he be? While his year in Austria was hugely successful, so far it has been a fluke of a season. For NE to be successful, his Austrian-league form needs to be his new norm.

Vrioni heatmap 2021/22

This heatmap shows a prototypical center-forward. There isn’t much happening on the wings, but anything down the center includes his involvement. His movement will test Malanda, and whoever is paired with him.

Latif Blessing

Blessing is a really interesting player. He was briefly linked to Charlotte during the summer transfer window and, honestly, he’s a player that would probably do well on this team.

Blessing is diminutive, listed at only 5’4.5″ and 141 lbs. He started his career with Sporting KC, where he made 25 appearances in 2017, scoring 3 goals and getting 1 assist. He was drafted by LAFC in 2018 and exploded with them over the next two seasons. In 2018, he got 5 goals and 6 assists in 30 appearances (18 starts). He followed that up with a 6-goal, 3-assist season in 34 appearances (29 starts).

Then the past 3 seasons have happened.

  • 2020: 21 appearances, 18 starts, 1 goal, 2 assists
  • 2021: 30 appearances, 25 starts, 2 goals, 2 assists
  • 2022: 30 appearances, 16 starts, 0 goals, 1 assist

So what has happened to Blessing? It appears to be positioning.

Positioning can make a huge difference for players. This is not groundbreaking but it can be overlooked. Positional changes can help account for the emergence of players such as Hany Muktar, Luciano Acosta, and Cucho. My first thought was this was the case with Blessing.

Here’s a bunch of heatmaps!

Blessing heatmap, 2017, with KC
Blessing heatmap, 2018, with LAFC
Blessing heatmap, 2019, with LAFC
Blessing heatmap, 2020, with LAFC
Blessing heatmap, 2021, with LAFC.
Blessing heatmap, 2022, with LAFC

These are no help, at least initially.

In his first two seasons with LAFC, which, remember, are his most productive from a goal-contribution standpoint, it appears they played him in a more attacking role, both based on his heatmaps and positional designations.

  • 2018: it appears that he’s playing as a winger. This is backed up by his positional designations on FBref (mostly LW/LM and RW/RM).
  • 2019: he’s all over the park with his heatmap. FBref has him listed as anything from a LM to a RW to CM to RB, so this makes sense. In multiple games, FBref has him playing as a LM/LW and RB in the same game.

For both of these years, his positional designations and heatmaps correspond with his goal and assist output. Then things change.

  • 2020: his heatmap has him as a right-sided player, which is backed up by designations on FBref of mostly RM and RB (with some CM thrown in).
  • 2021: his heatmap finds him similarly deployed, but he’s back on the left a bit more too. Again, he’s listed a lot as a RM or RB, but now there’s a lot more CM thrown in, which explains the encroachment into the left side of the park without him actually being formally deployed there too often.
  • 2022: last year’s heatmap has him all over the pitch again, but the designations remain mostly RM and CM.

So where does that leave us with Blessing? To me, first and foremost he has proved to be an incredibly flexible player. I love players who can do jobs all over the pitch and blessing appears to do that. Again, he’s a player that Charlotte could use. With that said, oftentimes a player who has positional flexibility has it because he can’t nail down one position. In general, I don’t think Blessings’ decrease in goal contributions is related to a decrease in skill. Rather, I think it has to do with LAFC progressively moving him farther back on the pitch.

This then leads us to the question of how will NE use him? One indication is if we look at how they designate him. If you look on FBref, you will find Blessing listed as a “FW-MF (CM-WM).” Transfermarkt has him listed as a “midfield-Attacking Midfield.” SofaScore has him as a “M” (for midfielder). The Revs, though, are listing him as a forward. This would indicate to me that they plan on having him revert to a role more similar to his first two years–and especially his first year–in LA.

When looking at the composition of their team, this would make sense. Below is the heatmap for their great CAM, Carles Gil.

Gil heatmap, 2022. Via SofaScore.com

Blessing isn’t going to be a CAM for NE and I wouldn’t think they’d pair these two in the midfield either. Gil is only listed at 5’6.5″ and 150 lbs. That would be an incredibly tiny midfield. Pushing Blessing to the wing would make more sense. Additionally, NE employs a really good RB in Brandon Bye (2 goals, 7 assists last year). Finally, against Chicago for the last game of the year, NE had Nacho Gil as their starting RW. Nacho Gil is no longer on NE (in fact, he’s currently without a club). Blessing could see time on the left wing, too. It appears Bou started there in the 2022 finale, though. All signs point to Blessing being their new right-sided forward.

Editor’s Note: Apparently NE did resign Nacho Gil. Transfermarkt’s transfer page for NE had him listed as “Without Club,” which threw Josh off. He was resigned by them in January. However, he is listed in the injury report so unclear if he’ll factor in the game.

For what it’s worth, MLS’s official site’s preview of NE has them in a 4-4-2 diamond, with Bou as a 2nd striker to Vrioni and Blessing as a right midfielder in the diamond. This is obviously a very possible formation, but according to FBref, NE was almost exclusively a 4-3-2-1 team last year. Whatever the formation, my gut tells me they’ll be looking to push Blessing higher up the pitch on the right side. This move has been a bit under the radar, but I think it’s a really good one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Blessing back up to 5-7 goals and 4-6 assists this season.

Dave Romney

Romney is a veteran of MLS. He began his career with the LA Galaxy, making 84 appearances (69 starts) for them over 5 seasons. He joined Nashville in 2020 and became a mainstay. In 3 years with Nashville, he made 87 appearances with 86 starts!

Romney will chip in the odd goal (3 goals last year, 9 for his career). More impressively for a center-back, though, he will chip in assists. He has 11 career assists, including 5 over the past 3 seasons. At 29, he’s still in his prime as a defender and, having played the last few seasons for a notoriously defensive-minded side, he’s a good addition for NE. He’ll be paired with Henry Kessler, who is a bit of a forgotten man. Kessler was very good for NE in 2021, but last year he was coming back from injury. It doesn’t appear that he ever really got back to full form last year. Now a year removed from injury, this CB-pairing has the potential to be one of the best in the league.

As we can see, Romney is quite good against dribblers when pressed into it, but doesn’t appear to be a front-footed defender. It should always be noted that defensive metrics are never as telling as offensive ones and CBs are often products of their team’s scheme. Regardless, it should make for an interesting matchup between him and Vargas or Gaines (I’m assuming).

His passing is middle of the road for a CB, but the rate at which he crosses into the penalty area is interesting. Kessler’s passing ability is very good, which should help make up for Romney’s lack of range.

Finally, Romney is good at aerials. Kessler isn’t terrible (46th percentile for % of aerials won) in the air, but NE probably wanted to find someone to bolster this area. Like with most great CB pairings, it’s not about each partner doing everything well; it’s about the balance between the partners. On paper, Romney and Kessler appear to balance each other out very well.


There are a few other players that should be highlighted for New England.

First, I haven’t touched on Gil, but he really is an amazing player. I know he rubs a lot of Charlotte, and MLS, fans wrong because of his reputation for being a bit dive-y. I’ll admit, I don’t really see that in him (or at least not any more so than other players). At 5’6.5″, he’s not a big guy, so going down under challenges is probably to be expected. Regardless of how you feel about him, here are his stats since he’s joined the Revolution:

  • 2019: 34 appearances, 34 starts, 10 goals (4 PKs), 12 assists
  • 2020: 6 appearances, 4 starts, 0 goals, 1 assist (injured for most of the year)
  • 2021: 28 appearances, 24 starts, 4 goals (1 PK), 11 assists
  • 2022: 33 appearances, 32 starts, 7 goals (3 PKs), 9 assists

Yes, the PKs do inflate his goal numbers quite a bit, but he’s not a striker. As such, PK inflation doesn’t bother me as much with him as it would with a #9. These assist numbers are also from FBref, as–say it together–soccer should not have hockey assists (looking at you, MLS official stats). It’s difficult to understate how good Gil is at getting the ball to his teammates. NE scored a total of 47 goals last year, meaning that he provided the assist on almost 20% of them (19%, to be exact). With better forward play throughout the year, he probably hits double digits again. The Revolution goes as Gil does. I’d be tempted to man-mark him.

In goal, NE keeps finding talent. Having sold Matt Turner to Arsenal, one would expect their goalkeeping to become a weakness. Instead, they inserted a 22-year-old Đorđe Petrović into goal and he instantly became a top 5 MLS keeper, at least. There are even rumors of Manchester United keeping close tabs on him.

Petrović made 21 starts last year, allowing 27 goals, having an 82.7% save rate, and keeping 7 clean sheets. He had an outrageous +13.1 PSxG+/-, which was good for 1st in the league. He did have 13 fewer games than Andre Blake of Philadelphia, who for my money is easily the best keeper in MLS. Blake was 2nd in MLS in PSxG+/- at +10.0. Petrović’s PSxG+/- was double that of 3rd place Dayne St. Claire (+6.9). For further reference, Kahlina ended the season with a -3.6 PSxG+/-, good for 54th in the league! Yes, that ranking obviously includes keepers who only made 1 or 2 starts, but, again, we might have a goalkeeper issue. Topic for another day…By the way, Gaga Slonina, who Chelsea paid an estimated $15M for, had a -0.5 PSxG+/- in 32 games. Yes, Slonina is 4 years younger than Petrović, but we might all have been paying a bit too much attention to the wrong young goalkeeper.

The biggest thing that jumps out to me about Petrović is his ability against crosses. He was in the 67th percentile for crosses faced, 89th percentile for crosses stopped, and 89th percentile for crosses stopped percentage. Plan A should not be to jump lump the ball into the area.

It’ll be interesting to see if Petrović can keep this pace up. If so, two things will be true. 1) We will have a new best goalkeeper in MLS and 2) He will quickly not be in MLS (therefore reverting back to us having the same best goalkeeper).


New England is a tough team to face first. Having played them last season with Buksa, we at least face a worse striker, but they continue to employ one of the best creators in the league (Gil), one of the best goalkeepers (Petrović), have added a potentially dangerous winger (Blessing), and improved their defense (Romney).

There are a number of players I haven’t touched on either that can’t be ignored. Both of their fullbacks, Bye and DeJuan Jones, are some of the better ones for this league. Matt Polster serves as a good midfield anchor, while Andrew Farrell is probably now the best 3rd CB in the league. Veterans such as Thomas McNamara, Jozy Altidore, Wood, and Omar Gonzalez provide good depth (if not the overall quality they each individually had).

Expectations for NE from their fans are probably playoffs, but I think they’re probably a similar team to Charlotte in that both have some holes, some question marks, and definite room for overall improvement. They seem like a team that will probably be fighting with Charlotte for that 6th-9th spot. As such, it’s an important game for us. Of course, if Vrioni makes a jump and Blessing reverts back to his 2018 and 2019 form, coupled with Gil, they could finish higher.

For Charlotte, my worry comes in defense. Up top, I expect a front 4 of Jóźwiak-Copetti-Gaines-Świderski. I can actually see that being a very potent lineup. The biggest question of that group is probably whether it will be Gaines or Vargas. I’ve said it before, Vargas right now is what people think Gaines is. Vargas has a higher ceiling, to be sure, and needs plenty of playing time this year. Right now, though, Gaines is the better player and should be starting.

(Note: Justin did bring up on the preview pod this Wednesday that Vargas’ delivery has looked better in the preseason. As I said on the pod, 1) I don’t really put too much stock into the preseason and 2) wasn’t able to see any of those games. If he has truly improved his delivery, the difference between Gaines and him–which already isn’t very big–becomes even smaller and the argument for him to be starting becomes more justified.)

In the midfield, I expect to see Westwood and Bronico. I’m a big fan of Nuno Santos and I expect him to find his way into the starting lineup. There are rumors of him being deployed on the right side, which might not be the worst thing. We’ve seen so little of him that I’m not sure how he would fair out there. His small-sample size numbers indicate a player that wants to be and should be on the ball a lot. I’m not sure that happens on the outside. Plus, I do believe Lattanzio values pace from wingers. I honestly don’t know if Nuno has that kind of pace; I know Vargas and Gaines do.

In goal, I expect to see Sisniega. I know there has been a “competition” between him and Marks, but the fact that Sisniega was the one to start games last year tells me he has the leg up in this. Plus, he has the size of a real goalkeeper.

The real issues come in the backline. Barring a setback in health, our star boy Malanda should start alongside Nathan Byrne. The left side is where there are a huge amount of question marks to be found.

It seems more and more likely that Harrison Afful will start at LB. It’s not a prospect that excites me. Derrick Jones has seen a lot of time at CB during the preseason, so there’s a chance he starts there for the opener. Personally, I’d much prefer us to throw Tuiloma into the lineup. He’s 27, has been in the league for 5 years, has 57 appearances for Portland over the past 2 years, and should be able to immediately play. We gave up a decent amount for him, so the plan can’t be for him to back up a midfielder pretending to be a CB.

At left back, Sobociński has gotten some time there this preseason. I don’t expect that to happen for this first game, nor do I expect our #1 overall pick, Diop, to play, but I’d prefer either option over Afful. Amazingly, I’d even prefer…gulp…Joseph Mora over Afful.

Prediction: Charlotte 2 – New England 1

Data Notes: All heatmaps come from Sofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come from FBref.com. Other websites used for data include: transfermarkt.us, Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com

The Columbus Preview, Part II Redux

Editor’s Note: Most of this information is taken from my first Part II preview, however, I have updated the numbers and other information to match the current state of Columbus. If it looks familiar to what you saw before the first attempt at this game, this is why.

Well here we are. With some help elsewhere (GO ORLANDO!), two wins and we’re in.

There’s not much to say about the lead up to this game other than we have no wiggle room. It’s a win or we’re out. We’ll be shorthanded, but we’ll have just over 74 minutes to make this happen. Let’s get it.


All stats from FBref.com
TeamPossessionPoints (standings)WhoScored team rating (SofaScore team rating)
Charlotte FC53.1%41 (9th in the East)6.53 (6.79)
Columbus Crew52.5%45 (8th in the East)6.68 (6.90)
All stats from FBref.com
TeamShots per gameShots on target per gameGoals for (xG)Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC11.254.0340 (38.1)48 (42.1)
Columbus Crew13.284.0943 (39.3)32 (38.2)

The biggest thing that jumps out is the amount of shots that Columbus take. They are actually 6th in the league in this respect, although it hasn’t necessarily translated to a huge goal return. As we will see below, though, they have some seriously good attackers.

The rating systems of SofaScore and WhoScored both “like” Columbus better, but to my eyes these are two very evenly matched teams, IF both were able to play their best lineups. Columbus will be able to do that; Charlotte will not.

Lucas Zelarayán

TL;DR: Zelarayán is really, really, REALLY good. You knew that though.

My Armenian compatriot has been a menace to the league since he joined Columbus from UANL of Liga MX in 2020. In that COVID-shortened season, Zelarayán had 6 goals and 2 assists in just 16 appearances. He followed that up with a 12-goal, 4 assist campaign last year in 32 appearances. He currently has 9 goals and 6 assists in 27 appearances.

Zelarayán heatmap, 2021, via SofaScore

His goals last year were an aberration for him, historically, but I’m not sure they’re an aberration for him for MLS. I will say he is someone who consistently seems to over perform his xG (2020: 6 Gs, 0 PKs, 2.8 xG, 2.0 npxG; 2021: 12 Gs, 1 PK, 6.5 xG, 5.7 npxG; 2022: 9 Gs, 1 PK, 4.9 xG, 4.2 npxG). Some players just do this.

Zelarayán began his career at Club Atlético Belgrano in the Argentinian Primera División. Through 2 seasons at Belgrano, he had 46 appearances (45 starts) and scored 9 goals and 7 assists; he was 21 and 22 years old in those seasons.

He moved to UANL in 2015. He only made 13 appearances for Tigres in 2015-16, only scoring once and assisting once. This is by far his worst season as a professional. He followed that season up with a 32-appearances, 24-start campaign, in which he had 6 goals and 6 assists. He made back-to-back 18-appearance seasons in 2017-18 and 2018-19, but only had 4 starts in 2017-18 and 14 starts in 2018-19. He had 3 goals and 1 assist in 2017-18 and 5 goals and 5 assists in 2018-19. He made 15 appearances (8 starts) for UANL in 2019-20, scoring 4 goals and getting 1 assist. He joined Columbus in December 2019.

Zelarayán heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore
Zelarayán heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore

Based on his performances in MLS, this is a consistent double-digit scorer. If 2020 hadn’t been shortened due to COVID, I think Zelarayán probably hits double-digit goals. He needs just one more this year to do that and he did miss a few games. Basically, Zelarayán’s new normal seems to be about 10 goals per year with 4+ assists. He is already 30, so it’ll be interesting to see how long he keeps this peak up, but I would imagine he has a good 3 years left in him, at least.

When looking at his heatmaps, he’s everywhere. I also think they show why he’s been more productive in MLS than he was in Liga MX. Specifically, UANL was using him in more wide positions. For example, look at the 2018/19 Liga MX Apertura heatmap below.

Zelarayán heatmap, 2018/19 Liga MX Apertura, via SofaScore
Zelarayán heatmap, 2018/2019, via SofaScore

That is not the same role at all. Zelarayán may just be better suited to MLS than Liga MX or he may be being used correctly now; it’s probably a mixture of both. Regardless, his move to CAM with Columbus has been the right one.

The heatmaps also show an increase in his possession of the ball. This is born out in the numbers too, as he’s gone from 54.2 touches/90 in 2020 and 61.5 touches/90 last year to 70.03 touches/90 this year. His live-ball touches are up to 61.60 touches/90 this year compared with 52.2 last year. Additionally, he’s carrying the ball more (53.26 carries/90 this year compared with 46.1 last year; 8.05 progressive carries/90 this year compared with 6.19 last year), being targeted more (59.75 targets/90 this year compared with 53.6 last year), and receiving the ball more (52.46 receptions/90 this year compared with 42.5 last year; 9.31 progressive passes received/90 this year compared with 8.66 last year). In short, Columbus has realized he’s f*****g good and is getting him the ball as much as possible.

Zelarayán passing percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days via FBref.com

Somewhat surprisingly, Zelarayán isn’t necessarily elite at passing. Over the past 365 days, here are his passing percentiles against other MLS CAMs and wingers. Look, these aren’t bad numbers by any stretch, but the poor completion percentages are notable.

Now, I do believe these percentages are a result of his ambition in passing, rather than a lack of talent. When you compare his completion percentages to other areas (key passes, attempts for any distance, passes into the penalty or final 3rd, progressive passes), what you see is a player who isn’t afraid to try the difficult pass. He simply doesn’t play it safe and, as a result, he contributes to the attack in very meaningful ways. Sure his short passing percentage (20th percentile), medium passing percentage (59th percentile), and long passing percentage (38th percentile) all look bad, but his xA is in the 96th percentile, his SCA is in the 97th percentile, and his GCA is in the 95th percentile. This shows a player who is going to try for the killer pass, not the safe option. It’s exactly what you want from a 10.

Elsewhere, Zelarayán’s numbers are elite. He’s in the 87th percentile for goals, although only 51st percentile for xG.

Zelarayán takes his shots from a long way out: 23.40 yards, which is good for the 3rd percentile. Zelarayán is taking a lot of shots from distance and a lot of shots in general (95th percentile, 3.29 shots per 90). This frequent shooting and shooting from long distances will naturally drive down his shots on target percentage (55th percentile, 34.6% per 90). I don’t think you necessarily want him to stop taking these shots, as it’s clearly working for him. Additionally, some players just outperform what the numbers say they should be doing. He may very well be one of them.

In addition to his passing ability, assist making, and goal-scoring, Zelarayán is also a phenomenal dribbler. He’s in the 99th percentile for dribbles completed (3.41 per 90), the 98th percentile for dribbles attempted (5.77 per 90), the 80th percentile for successful dribble percentage, the 99th percentile for players dribbled past and the 93rd percentile for nutmegs. Unsurprisingly with these dribbling stats, he draws a lot of fouls (97th percentile).

Defensively, Zelarayán is–who cares. Legitimately, his numbers aren’t good, but I don’t care, Columbus probably doesn’t care, and you shouldn’t either. Zelarayán is an MLS version of prime Mesut Özil. You don’t ask or care if that player defends. He’s in the squad to score and assist. Zelarayán obviously does that exceedingly well.

In short, as an attacking midfielder, Zelarayán is about as good as you’ll get, especially in MLS. He’s going to be a nightmare for Bronico, Walkes, and company to deal with, especially since he’s going to pop up all over the pitch.

Cucho

Cucho heatmap, 2021/22 for Watford, via SofaScore
Cucho heatmap, 2021/22, via SofaScore

Columbus appears to have done some really good work getting Juan Camilo Hernández Suárez, or Cucho for short.

The 23-year-old Colombian began his career at CD América in the Colombian Primera A, where he was on loan from Spanish side Granada. He made only 13 appearances and had only 2 assists in those appearances, but was only 17 years old. He would never appear for Granada.

He was sold to Watford in 2017 and then sent out on loan. First, he moved to Huesca in the Spanish second division in 2017 and would go on to make 69 appearances (58 starts) for them over 2 years. As an 18-year-old in the Segunda División, he scored 17 goals and had 6 assists in 35 appearances. He helped Huesca move from the second division to La Liga for 2018-19, but the production was a bit different there.

Cucho heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore

In La Liga for Huesca, he only managed 4 goals and 3 assists in 34 appearances. He moved to Mallorca on loan the following year, where he had 5 goals and 1 assist in 22 appearances. He then played for Getafe, where he had 2 goals and 3 assists in 23 appearances. He returned (finally) to his parent club, Watford, for the 2021-22 and made 25 appearances, but only 11 starts. He scored 5 goals and had 2 assists in those appearances.

Now with Columbus, Cucho has gotten off to a flying start. He’s made 14 appearances (12 starts) and has 9 goals and 2 assists. Like Zelarayán, Cucho is a wide player that Columbus has put more centrally. His heatmaps above show that change. For Watford (and previous clubs), he was played as a winger. FBref has him as a “forward” for his 4 games with Columbus and the heatmap and starting XIs support that. He’s still drifting wide, but he’s playing much more as a forward.

Now Cucho is only listed at 5’8″ (and a half) and 161 lbs, but he’s been good in the air. He was in the 96th percentile for aerials won for the 2021-22 Premier League season. When compared to all 5 Big European leagues, he was in the 99th percentile. It should be noted, that this is for him as a winger, which is not how he’s playing with Columbus. For Columbus, he’s in the 51st percentile of aerials won, so it’s not quite as high as his PL time, but he’s also being compared with strikers now. I still take this number as a positive.

It’s difficult to dive too much into his percentiles. Watford was not good last year and got relegated. Of course, that fact actually speaks to his talent as some of his percentiles were really impressive. When looking at just the Premier League and comparing him to CAMs/wingers, Cucho is in the 84th percentile for goals, the 86th percentile for non-penalty goals, and the 91st percentile for goals per shot on target. He’s only in the 46th percentile for xG and the 59th percentile for shots on target, but, again, Watford was bad so this probably isn’t a surprise.

While Cucho only had 5 goals last year, Watford only had 34 total on the year. He scored 15% of their goals! The point of all this is that Cucho can score. I’m not sure what exactly his level is, as he tore apart a second division but never got more than 5 at a top-flight club. At only 23, it’s not like he’s a finished product and the potential for him to score loads of goals is real. If I had to guess, I would say we see output similar to his first year at Huesca with Columbus, especially with the positional change factored in.

Cucho passing percentiles vs. MLS forwards over the past 365 days, via FBref

The passing numbers for Cucho are good, even if the completion percentages aren’t. In a lot of ways, his numbers are similar to Zelarayán’s. At the Premier League level, Cucho often struggled with his passing. In MLS, he’s been a lot better. The step down in competition helps explain that, but doesn’t do much to assuage my fears about how dangerous he’ll be for us.

His dribbling numbers were decent in the PL: 71st percentile for dribbles completed, 74th percentile for players dribbled past, and 67th percentile for dribbles attempted. Unsurprisingly, he’s gone to another level in MLS: 96th percentile for dribbles completed, 95th percentile for dribbles attempted, and 96th percentile for players dribbled past.

Looking at all of this, I think Columbus’ decision to convert him to a central forward makes sense. His history shows he can score, but not necessarily that he can pass well. As a center forward, that deficiency is more acceptable. Pairing him with a talented playmaker like Zelarayán and an emerging wide player in Etienne will create a lot of problems for opponents in this league.

Luis Díaz

Díaz heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore
Díaz heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore

Díaz is a true wide player for Columbus. Before the first time this match was supposed to be played, Díaz had 15 appearances for Columbus, but only 5 starts. Since then, he’s up to 24 appearances and 15 starts, so he’s definitely worked his way into the lineup.

He’s in his 4th season with Columbus, only has 5 career goals and 11 career assists, and is already 23. On the surface, he doesn’t appear to be that interesting. Yet, I’m intrigued and it mostly has to do with what his heatmap shows us, especially when compared with Etienne on the other side.

What jumps out to me about Díaz’s map is how close to the touchline and far up the pitch he stays. He’s in the 77th percentile for touches in the attacking penalty box and the 64th percentile for touches in the attacking 3rd. These percentages have decreased as he’s had more starts, so they are asking him to drop back a bit more than he was. However, this is still a player who will primarily stay up the pitch.

Etienne heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore
Etienne heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore

Compare his positioning to Etienne, who is playing on the other side. Yes, Etienne likes to be by the touchline as well, but he’s far more likely to come into the center of the pitch.

When thinking about the players Columbus has as attackers, the need for Díaz’s positioning makes sense. Cucho and Zelarayán, as we have seen, will drift all over the pitch. While I haven’t shown their maps, Morris and Nagbe are also all over the pitch. The fullbacks will provide width, but Columbus needs some of their advanced players to stay wide and create space. Díaz is doing this job and, from a counting stats perspective, it’s largely an unthankful role.

Where Diaz does excel is as a dribbler. He’s 80th percentile for dribbles completed and 93rd percentile for dribbles attempted (although he’s 16th percentile for successful dribble percentage). He’s able to dribble past opponents (86th percentile) and nutmeg them (94th percentile). When he’s in the attacking 3rd, he carries the ball into the penalty area at an elite rate (99th percentile) and is always available to receive passes upfield (84th percentile for progressive passes received). Finally, because of his trickery, he’s elite at drawing fouls (98th percentile).

Díaz passing percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days, via FBref

Díaz is not a good passer, as his percentiles to the left show. To his credit, it doesn’t look like he’s really being asked to be a passer in the buildup. His numbers are really good for crossing and assists, so the danger is when he has the ball in the final third.

Díaz appears to find his way into the side for two reasons: 1) to hug the touchline and provide width and 2) to drive to the penalty area, be tricky, and draw fouls. In some ways, he’s there to cause chaos. As a whole, his profile doesn’t seem great, but if we view him as carrying out a very specific, narrow role, I actually think he is excelling at that. He’s the Michelle Williams to Zelarayán and Cucho’s Beyoncé and Kelly Rowland. Did that metaphor work?

Conclusion

Columbus are a poor man’s Philadelphia. They play good defense, have a really good goalkeeper, and have talented attackers. However, they don’t defend as well as Philly and they are no where near the offensive threat of the Union. They are certainly dangerous and players like Cucho and Zelarayán will cause our make-shift backline all sorts of problems.

This lineup is going to be a challenge for Lattanzio. We are NOT going to have anything near the lineup we just had with Philadelphia due to these rules.

Whereas Columbus is going to be able to play this game with basically the lineup they would anyway, Charlotte lined up this way on that night:

Charlotte lineup vs. Columbus, via MLS

Obviously Corujo will be unavailable and Kahlina’s availability is up in the air. McNeill, Bender, Mora, and Reyna have not really featured for Charlotte much recently. That means 6 out of our Starting XI from this game are either non-starters now or injured. Yeah…that’s going to cause issues.

This is a must win game and I would encourage Lattanzio to be brave. Specifically, we should be making subs right away. This is a difficult, and fine, line for him to walk because immediately subbing some of these players will likely not sit right with some of them. With that said, we can make the playoffs and we need the best team we can.

Let’s start here: Jones in for McNeill. This is obvious and needed, as a midfield of Bender, Bronico, and McNeill will get torn apart by Columbus’ attack. Next, give me Mora out for Lindsey. I will say, I’m not sure I see much difference between Mora on the left compared with Afful, but CL certainly does. As such, let’s get Lindsey’s attacking nous in this game.

Świderski has looked good as a 10, but unless we make 3 changes right away, I think we need to try him back as a striker. With 2 subs right away, we’d still have 3 windows to make subs (at the half and 2 more sub periods) to make 3 changes. If the first half doesn’t go well, let’s get Bender and Reyna out for Ríos and Jóźwiak, respectively.

Our center backs are going to be Walkes and Sobociński-we have no other choice. Malanda is ineligible, Makoun is on the Revolution now, and Fuchs had a red card ineligibility for that game. I’m a believer in Sobociński, but man is this a big ask for a young player who hasn’t played much this year.

With all this said, if you can beat Philadelphia 4-0, you can beat any team in this league (on your night). We can’t lose or draw against this team. We have no other choice than for this to be our night.

Prediction: Charlotte 2 – Columbus 1

The Philadelphia Preview, Part II

With the news that the city of Charlotte has called for people not to leave their house unless there’s an emergency and with CMS going virtual on Friday, I’m curious to see how Saturday will go. This is about as unbalanced a game on paper as you can imagine and, with the weather, Charlotte’s biggest advantage-the home crowd-might not be there. Just take a look at these numbers below:

All stats from FBref.com
TeamPossessionPoints (standings)WhoScored team rating (SofaScore team rating)
Charlotte FC53.1%38 (10th in the East)6.51 (6.78)
Philadelphia Union43.5%64 (1st in the East)6.89 (7.02)
All stats from FBref.com
TeamShots per gameShots on target per gameGoals for (xG)Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC11.324.0636 (35.5)48 (41.4)
Philadelphia Union12.945.0066 (58.3)22 (36.0)

Philadelphia has the 3rd worst possession in the league, but it doesn’t matter. They’re an exemplar of how overall possession numbers are meaningless; it’s very much what you do with that possession. This team has scored the most goals in the league (3 more than the next closest teams, Austin and LAFC), has allowed the fewest goals in the league (9 fewer than the next closest team, Columbus, who have also played one less game), leads the league in xG, is the only team above 2.00 goals/90 (2.06/90), is 4th best in the league in xA, and is first in the league in assists (48). This is before we even talk about their individual talent, which we most certainly will.

Formation/Injury Report/Suspension

Philadelphia lineup at RBNY, 9/3/22, via MLS.com

Philadelphia plays mostly in a 4-4-2 (according to FBref) or a 4-3-1-2 (according to MLS). Regardless of how you define it, they are playing with a pretty consistent lineup at this point and will definitely feature a front 2.

Players like Dániel Gazdag, Leon Flach, Kai Wagner, Jakob Glesnes, and Jack Elliott are automatic starters. Then you have players like Cory Burke, who isn’t starting games (just 8 starts on the year) but is featuring in almost every one of Philly’s games (31 total appearances).

Players like Julián Carranza, Alejandro Bedoya, José Andrés Martínez, Mikael Uhre, Nathan Harriel, and Olivier Mbaizo are all regular starters, as well.

Of course, the ability to play (mostly) unchanged lineups is a result of the fact they currently have NO ONE on the injury report. The rich get richer, right?

Philadelphia lineup vs. Orlando, 9/10/22, via MLS.com
Philadelphia lineup at Atlanta, 9/17/22, via MLS.com

Interestingly, Philadelphia did drop points to Atlanta last weekend. They were kind of dominated by Atlanta. If they had won that game, there was a small chance that we might be facing a B-string as they would have 1st place in the East locked up. Of course, they’re battling LAFC for the Supports’ Shield, so that probably wouldn’t have happened. As it stands, Montréal can still catch Philadelphia for 1st in the East, so expect to see a full-strength squad.

Andre Blake

Andre Blake is the best goalkeeper in the league and, in my opinion, it’s not particularly close. He leads the league in save percentage (84%) and, unsurprisingly, is tied for the league lead in clean sheets with 14. When looking at advanced goalkeeping stats, well, he’s still amazing. He is 2nd in the league in PSxG+/- at 9.3. The league leader is Đorđe Petrović of New England who is at +9.6, however, Petrović has only 19 games, while Blake sits at 32. Petrović is having an amazing debut for NE (by the way, how are they going from Turner to someone this good?), but I’d argue the significantly larger sample size from Blake edges him in this discussion.

Now, in any discussion of goalkeeping, it should be noted that the stats are inextricably linked with defense. As such, it’s important to say that Blake is seeing very few shots (10th percentile for shots on target against) and the shots he does see are relatively low difficulty shots (8th in PSxG/SoT at 0.25 per 90). This isn’t a knock against him, as he’s still been phenomenal at stopping whatever he’s facing, but it’s not something that can be ignored either. The defense in front of him is good and he assuredly benefits from it, but at the end of the day, chances are if Blake sees a shot, he stops it, and that in and of itself is mighty impressive.

To add context for all these goalkeeping numbers, Kahlina has allowed 46 goals, has a 68.4% save percentage, is in the 46th percentile of PSxG/SoT (at 0.30 per 90), and has a PSxG+/- of -1.9. For as good as Charlotte fans think Kahlina has been, Blake is simply at a different level. Is he the beneficiary of a good defense? Sure. But over the past 3 seasons, Blake has allowed 18 goals, 24 goals, and 22 goals and his PSxG+/- over these seasons has been +5.8, +7.5, and +9.3. He is absolutely, unequivocably elite for this league.

The one thing Blake does not do, though, is pass the ball. Please note I didn’t say he’s unable to do that, simply that he doesn’t. I honestly don’t know if he is capable or not-Philly has never really asked him to be a distributor. He has a career non-goal kick launch percentage of 49.2%, including 47.9% this year (good for the 79th percentile for the 2022 MLS season). He’s launching goal kicks 74.3% of the time (89th percentile) and attempts only 19.72 passes per 90. Perhaps in a different team, he would be able to provide distribution, or perhaps Philly has adapted their offensive style to his ability (*ahem* take note, Lattanzio, with Kahlina *ahem*). Either way, he’s not asked to do it and it isn’t negatively impacting his team.

Mikael Uhre

One of the more amazing things about Philadelphia is that they have one Designated Player–Uhre. The 27-year-old Dane is in his first year with the club and MLS. He has hit the ground running.

In 25 appearances (19 starts), Uhre has 12 goals and 3 assists on 8.0 xG. None of these goals have been PKs. This is after he had 19 goals and 6 assists for his previous club, Brøndby, in 2020-21 (32 appearances) and 11 goals and 1 assist in 2021-22 (16 appearances). His 2021-22 season was a half-season with the club as he transferred to Philadelphia during the January window.

Uhre heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore.com

One of the things that jumps out to me about Uhre, and a number of the other players we’ll look at, is how much freedom they have on the pitch. Uhre is a striker, but he’s drifting all over the pitch. Now, some of this is due to Philadelphia’s style of play, in which they do sit deep and let their opponent have the ball. Nevertheless, his constant movement will make it hard for our backline to keep track of him, as he’s going to drift into a variety of areas on the pitch.

Dániel Gazdag

Gazdag is having a breakout year, although I think it’s been a couple of years in the making. If you look at just his first year in MLS, which was last year, you might not be too impressed. In 2021, he had 23 appearances (17 starts), with 4 goals (1 PK) and 3 assists. Not a bad return, certainly, but nothing close to his 19 goals (6 PKs!) and 5 assists this year. However, look back to his 2020-21 season with the Hungarian side Honvéd and this year’s return starts to make sense. Now, I can’t tell you anything about the difficulty level of the Hungarian first division, but he had 13 goals that year for Honvéd. For a 24-year-old attacking midfielder, that’s very good. If we look at last year as an adjustment year for him to MLS, then his goal contribution this year makes a lot more sense.

I will usually caveat large goal returns like his that are inflated by PKs. He’s tied for first in the league in PKs and, while all goals count, PKs are high percentage shots that don’t always reflect a player’s true goalscoring ability (i.e., a PK has an xG of 0.76. To better that, you usually have to have a tap in directly in front of the goal). In Gazdag’s case, the PKs certainly inflate his numbers, but I don’t think they detract from his actual ability. Even removing those 6 PKs, he is at 13 non-PK goals for the year on 11.8 npxG. Put another way, he would be Charlotte’s leading goalscoring with a 3rd of his goals removed…

Oddly-and I checked FBref, Wikipedia, and SofaScore-I don’t see any information on assists for him during the 2020-21 season with Honvéd. On FBref, it doesn’t even say 0, it just has an empty space in the assists column for that year and for the 2019-20 season. FBref has 0 assists in other seasons for him, so I’m not sure what is happening for these 2 seasons. Regardless of his assist production those years, it’s a very real aspect of his game currently. Those 5 assists have come on 4.6 xA, so there’s not a ton of luck involved in them.

Gazdag heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore.com

Like Uhre above, Gazdag is also all over the pitch. There’s a definite right-side bias, but it’s not so bad as to make him predictable. He’s going to be another player that will be hard to track and we’ll need Jones and/or Bronico to help the backline out with him.

That’s not to say Gazdag is a perfect player. As his percentiles below show, he’s an elite attacker for a midfielder and his shooting numbers are off the charts. Note also that he’s doing this on a really low (36th percentile) number of shots.

When it comes to passing and technical ability on the ball, though, he’s rather pedestrian. He is progressive with his passing and he doesn’t miscontrol many balls, but outside of those two things, he’s not going to overly concern you with his ability on the ball. This is, of course, nitpicking a player who has been one of the best this entire season.

Gazdag shooting percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days, via FBref.com
Gazdag passing percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days, via FBref.com
Gazdag possession percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days, via FBref.com

Julián Carranza

The final member of the ridiculous Philly attacking trio is also the youngest. Carranza is only 22 and is in the midst of a true breakout season. He began the year on loan from Inter Miami, where he made 41 appearances (11 starts) over two years, but only scored 3 goals. Philadelphia has made this move permanent and for good reason. He’s at 14 goals (2 PKs) and 6 assists on the year. The assist number is a bit suspect to me, as he only has 1.5 xA on the year, but good players on good teams will have the luck. His goal numbers are not a fluke, as he’s got 12 non-PK goals on 12.1 npxG.

Carranza heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore.com

Like his attacking partners, Carranza will drift, but he shows the most pronounced bias towards a side (the right). Of course, Gazdag operates in those areas of the pitch a lot too, so the ability of Carranza, Gazdag, and Bedoya (more on him in a bit) to combine will be a huge danger for Charlotte. The fact that this will be on our left side, where our left backs and Walkes have been caught out quite a bit recently, doesn’t lend much optimism.

Carranza defensive percentiles vs. MLS forwards over the past 365 days, via FBref.com.

Carranza is a very active defender for a forward. Yes, the primary goal of every striker should be to put the ball in the back of the net. Linking play and putting in a defensive shift are bonuses, but come secondary to actual goalscoring. If Carranza were linking play and being good defensively, but not scoring (see: Alexandre Lacazette at Arsenal) I’d say he needs to focus on what they’re paying him to do. As it is, he’s one of the top scorers in the league and has no problem being an asset when his team doesn’t have the ball. For a team that plays like Philadelphia, this is invaluable.

Supporting Cast

I’d be remiss not to mention a few other players on this team. “Supporting Cast” is probably a misnomer, as any of these players would be valuable players for Charlotte, but I do think they play second fiddle to Philadelphia’s more well-known players.

Bedoya passing percentiles vs. MLS midfielders over the past 365 days, via FBref.com

The first among them will be the most well-known: Alejandro Bedoya. Bedoya is in his 7th season with Philly and, at 35, is having arguably his best season. With 6 goals and 6 assists on the season, Bedoya is thriving as a 4th or 5th attack option.

As his passing percentiles to the left show, he’s dangerous when he’s in and around the penalty box, but otherwise is showing his age. The 6 assists have come on 5.2 xA, so I don’t think they’re a fluke (unlike the 6 goals which are coming on 3.2 xG…), but I’m not sure Charlotte needs to be overly concerned about him having the ball in the middle of the field.

Of course, part of the reason he can be so dangerous is that he plays on the right. He’s a true winger-type (although he’s compared to midfielders on FBref) and hugs the touchline. The fact that defenses have to account for players like Carranza and Gazdag-both of whom favor the right-sided areas of the pitch-certainly helps Bedoya get into those good spaces in and around the box.

Cory Burke is Philadelphia’s 3rd striker. He’s gotten into 31 games, but only started 8 of them. Nonetheless, he has 7 goals and 4 assists on the season (on 6.0 xG and 2.9 xA). It’s his best goal return since 2018 when he had 10 in 29 appearances for Philadelphia. I’m hesitant to call it a fluke because he has a history of goalscoring. On top of that, he’s never really been a starter for Philly so his goal returns look meager, but are impressive on a goal-per-90 basis (0.47 G/90 for his career).

With that said, this is a good squad player, but there’s probably a reason he’s never forced his way into Philly’s Starting XI. Chances are he’ll come off the bench and when he does, the weary legs of Charlotte will need to be aware of him. Like Bedoya, though, being the 4th, 5th, or 6th option on a team this good has been hugely beneficial to him.

Finally, there is Kai Wagner, Philadelphia’s left back. Wagner would probably be most aggrieved to be included in the “supporting cast” category, as he’s a really good player. The 25-year-old German has 8 assists on the season (32 starts) on 7.3 xA. While he doesn’t have a goal this year, he did have 3 last year, so he’s shown he can score. With the players that he has in front of him this year, though, that’s not a necessity.

Wagner passing percentiles vs. MLS fullbacks over the past 365 days, via FBref.com.

Whereas a lot of players I’ve talked about in this post are average to flawed passers, Wagner is very, very good. Ignore the poor number for short distances-he’s not doing it very much and, based on what he’s doing elsewhere, I have no doubts he could improve this if he wanted.

His profile shows an aggressive, progressive passer who isn’t worried about having a high percentage. His progressive passing distance, key passes, crosses, and long passing all show a player who would rather make the killer pass than the safe pass. In a team that gives up possession, this makes sense.

Defensively, Wagner is unspectacular to below-average. He blocks and intercepts the ball well and I’m sure he benefits from the defensive system the club employs. On a more offensive-minded side, I might look to his side as a place to find some joy, and it still might be. However, based on the way Philadelphia plays, he might be a good player to attack when you can, but I wouldn’t consider him “exploitable.”

Conclusion

I’m not sure it can be overstated how good a team this Philadelphia side is. When Charlotte went to LA, I thought we were facing the best team in the league. After seeing what Philadelphia has done, I’m not so sure we did. At the very least, the margins between LAFC and Philadelphia are razor thin and I’d be surprised if it weren’t these two teams in the finals.

So what can Charlotte do? Well, if the weather is as bad as predicted, ugly weather can cause ugly games which can often benefit the less-talented team. Philadelphia will give Charlotte the ball, so we have to make sure that we’re 1) strong with it and 2) brave with it. This is not a team that you’re going to be able to pass around very easily. Someone is going to have to step up and try some riskier passes, but in a smart way.

I’m convinced Malanda has real range in his passing and this would be a good game to showcase it. Świderski has looked good at the 10 and we know he likes to drop back. His ability to find space between the lines and link play will be vital. Unsurprisingly, I’m also going to call for Gaines to play. His pace will test Philadelphia’s backline.

To be honest, I can’t see a real way for Charlotte to win, or even take points, in this game. That’s not to say they won’t, but I think trying to predict how they would do that is impossible. Maybe you didn’t notice as you read, but Philadelphia has 3 players–Gazdag, Carranza, and Uhre–who have more goals than our leading goalscorer (Świderski with 10). Our second leading scorer, Shinyashiki is at 5 goals; he would be Philly’s 6th leading goalscorer. I would love nothing more than for Charlotte to pull the upset, but this feels like a monumental ask. I feel optimistic enough in the fact that I’m predicting a goal.

Prediction: Charlotte 1 – Philadelphia 4