Editor’s Note: We are excited to announce that we’ll be having a new contributor on the site! Meet Rolo. Each week, Rolo will be bringing you a quick recap of the game along with some of his thoughts on it related to Lattanzio’s tactics.
We finally got our three points!
Charlotte FC fans are going to be able to enjoy their week knowing we now have some positive momentum after three consecutive losses. Coach Lattanzio made five changes following the 3-0 loss to Atlanta UTD, including dropping Nathan Byrne, Karol Świderski, Kamil Jóźwiak, and Andre Shinyashiki. Kerwin Vargas and McKinze Gaines got their names into the Starting XI, while Jaylin Lindsey and Ghanaian international Harrison Afful were put in as the fullback partners. That meant that Brandt Bronico was pushed forward into his preferred midfield position. Coach Christian Lattanzio chose to stray from his 4-2-3-1 and picked a 4–3-3 for this matchup. He was rewarded.
The first half looked good as Charlotte had more shots (7 vs. 4) and more shots on target (4 vs. 3) than Orlando. Charlotte was able to hold it pretty even with Orlando with both teams sharing 50 percent of possession and both teams having a similar amount of passes completed in the first half as Charlotte had 237 passes completed to Orlando’s 240.
The forward trio of Vargas, Gaines, and Copetti were vital in Charlotte gaining more opportunities, as they provided width and pressure, leading to Orlando’s mistakes.
The continuous pressure proved beneficial throughout the first half, with Bronico slotting a pass to Gaines in the 24th minute. Gaines’ shot challenged the Orlando keeper but was saved. One minute later, Charlotte got its reward. Goalkeeper George Marks passed a ball toward Ashley Westwood, who played a one-touch pass to Jaylin Lindsey. Lindsey pushed forward and hit a beautiful ball over the head of Orlando, which fell at the feet of Copetti. With a 1v1 against the goalkeeper, Copetti scored his second goal of the season.
Twelve minutes later, the second goal would come. Kerwin Vargas received the ball on the outside of the box and beat his defender, slotting the ball into the bottom left corner. Charlotte went into the half with a 2-0 lead. Ashley Westwood would receive a knock just before the end of the half and would later be subbed off at the beginning of the second half for Nuno Santos. Hopefully it is nothing serious and we’ll get an update later this week on his fitness.
The second half was not good from a Charlotte FC perspective and there isn’t much good to talk about for the Crown. Being 2-0 is one of the most deceiving score-lines in football. All it takes is one goal for the momentum to shift. This occurred in the 56th minute of the match when Martín Ojeda scored. He capitalized on the communication mistake of the Charlotte FC defenders, in particular Bill Tuiloma. Luckily, we were able to see the game out and escape with a full 3 points.
Takeaways
I’m fed up with the amount of crossing we let into our box throughout each match. There are instances (such as the third-minute offside goal) where attacks coming from our left side are catching us out. It has been a consistent issue for our defense this year where attacks coming from the opposition right lead to crosses that provide ample scoring opportunity for them. In the thirty-third minute, again, too much space is allowed and a cross from the right side is put into a dangerous position. The fix for this is simple: the players need to do a better job of stopping our opponent’s from crossing, or at least make it more difficult for them to be put in.
Our defensive lines are also being broken too easily. Look at the Orlando buildup in the 7th minute as an example of this. Marks makes a save, but it’s too easy for Torres (#17 on Orland) to get in and get a shot off.
During the second half, Charlotte didn’t play to their strengths. Lattanzio’s philosophy calls for playing possession football with quick passes that lead to goal-scoring opportunities. In the second half, Orlando City held 62 percent of possession compared to Charlotte’s 38%. Orlando completed 262 passes compared to Charlotte’s 161 passes. Charlotte was held to one shot in the entire second half, compared to Orlando’s eleven shots.
For me, the Man of the Match should be George Marks. He had five saves and his long ball would help in the lead-up to the Copetti goal. Marks was able to play a composed first half, which led to momentum being on Charlotte’s side early. He was also able to effectively push the distribution between players. The second half was much of the same from Marks. His saves in the last 10 minutes kept the win in place. Hopefully, we’ll see more of Marks throughout this season.
Passes/crosses breaking the Charlotte defensive lines: 1:09- 1:17
Pass from Bronico to Gaines shot challenging keeper: 2:09 – 2:13
First goal: 2:17-2:32
Vargas goal: 3:37-3:42
The left-sided moment on the defense: 6:26-6:32
Editor’s note: For some reason, embedding the game highlights shows a “not available, watch on YouTube message.” I’m assuming this is a MLS/Apple thing, as we’ve not encountered this before. Link to the video is in the “Game Moments” heading!
Huh, guess these fanbases have something in common. I’d give Orlando fans first dibs on these feelings due to their seniority. Saturday was as noncompetitive as I’ve seen Charlotte in its short history. That’s about all I have to say about things that have happened over the past week.
Lineups
Orlando has started the season much better than Charlotte with a home victory over RBNY (1-0), a home draw against Cincinnati (0-0), and an away draw against DC United (1-1). Defensively, you feel okay about that, but 2 goals in 3 games isn’t great (says the fan of the 1 goal team…).
In addition to theses league games, Orlando is also in the CCL. On 3/7, they produced a great result of 0-0 at UANL. I say this statement in all sincerity, as it set them up very well for the home leg on 3/15. Well, in addition to Fox cutting the feed before the game was over, Orlando came up just short with a 1-1 draw, sending Tigres through on away goals (stupid rule). Tigres is one of the better clubs on this continent, so I don’t think Orlando should be too down on itself. Certainly disappointed, but not disheartened.
More importantly from a Charlotte perspective, Orlando has played 180 more minutes of football than us, including what will be 3 games this week. Wednesday night’s affair was all high-stakes, so hopefully it was energy sapping.
Now, there is a positive way to look at this. We are still very much in “early season” form. Part of the reason MLS teams struggle so much in CCL is because the MLS season has just started, while Liga MX (and other leagues) sides have been going for multiple games already. UANL has already played 11 league games. The chemistry of that team is far above Orlando’s, or any MLS side. There might be more wear on Orlando legs; they might have better understanding, though.
Orlando vs. RBNY, 2/25Orlando vs. Cincinnati, 3/4Orlando at DC, 3/11Orlando at UANL, 3/7Orlando vs. UANL, 3/15
Orlando’s lineups are all over the place. It looks like a 4-2-3-1 might be their preferred, but then you have that 3-4-2-1 and 5-3-2 hanging out there. Now, the differences between a back 5 and a back 3 can be blurry, so that 3-4-2-1 could easily be a 5-2-3 (or something of the sort). The point is, this is a team that has some lineup variation, so it should be interesting to see what they do on Saturday with it.
My guess–based on the way they started the season and the lineup they’ve put out against Tigres–is that the 4-2-3-1 with those personnel choices is the (mostly) preferred lineup.
Injury
According to the MLS Availability Report, Orlando have a pretty clean bill of health. Only forward Favian Loyola is listed as Questionable with a left thigh injury. He’s 17 and doesn’t have a first team appearances, so, all-in-all, Orlando will be coming in with a full-strength squad.
Note: Antonio Carlos has injury concerns but isn’t listed in the Availability Report. More on this later.
Attack
Like Atlanta, Orlando has a young South American DP player who should be the focal point of opposition teams: the Uruguayan, Facundo Torres. There were rumors of Torres being linked to Arsenal in January, though obviously nothing came of that.
Torres is listed as a midfielder and forward, which is unsurprising when you see the formations above. The 22-year-old had a strong debut season in MLS last year, scoring 9 goals (1 PK) and getting 8 assists. Now, he did that off the back of a 4.7 xG (4.0 npxG) so there is some question about the sustainability of that goal-scoring production. Good goal-scorers usually over-perform their xG; they don’t usually double it. He also over-performed his xAG, which was 5.4. He has 1 of Orlando’s 2 goals on the season.
Torres had 10 goals over 50 appearances for Peñarol (his previous club) in his age 19 and 20 seasons. The history of goalscoring is there. The questions are: does his goal tally come down? Does the xG improve? Is he a unicorn who consistently over performs his xG to this level? He’ll be 23 this season, so there’s plenty of time for this to become clear. What is clear now is that Charlotte will have to be aware of him.
In addition to his obvious goal-contributions, Torres is a dangerous passer. He’s not elite here yet, but he is good. He’s in the 83rd percentile for assists, the 81st percentile for progressive passes, and in the 70th percentile ranges for passes into the final third (76th), passes into the penalty area (74th), and crosses into the penalty area (71st).
He’s a good carrier of the ball (82nd percentile for carries, 72nd percentile for progressive carrying distance, and 76th percentile for carries into the final third) and receiver of the ball (80th percentile for passes received, 74th percentile for progressive passes received).
Torres MLS heatmap 2023Torres MLS heatmap 2022
He’s recreating his map from last year. There is a bias toward the right side of the pitch, but it’s clear that he’s going to drift all over the final third. He’s been started as a CAM, RM/RW, or part of a strike partnership. His versatility makes him dangerous. Considering how many issues Almada and ATL gave use with attacking our left side (before finishing attacks on our right side), we should be concerned.
Elsewhere in attack, you’ll find DP striker Ercan Kara, Jack Lynne, Moises Tablante, the injured Loyola, Gaston González, Ramiro Enrique, Duncan McGuire, Dagur Dan Þórhallsson, and Martín Ojeda. Neither Lynne nor Tablante has made a senior appearance this year and Lynne only had 3 appearances (for 4 minutes) last year. Lynn is currently out on loan.
Kara is a 27-year-old Austrian striker. He’s big at 6’3.5″ and 192 lbs. He’s in his 2nd season for Orlando having come over from Rapid Wien in the Austrian Bundesliga. He had 11 goals (1 PK) and 3 assists last year on 9.4 xG and 1.6 xAG. For as big as he is, he doesn’t have the number of headed goals you might expect. Of his 10 non-PK goals, only 3 were headers. Most were with the right foot, while one was with his left. The way to defend him, then, seems pretty simple (/s): force him off that right foot.
Kara started the first two games but did not start in Orlando’s game against DC or in their CCL games. I haven’t been able to find anything about these absences being related to injury, so it might be a form issue.
In Kara’s place, Enrique and McGuire have come in. Enrique is 21 and in his first season in MLS, having arrived from Banfield. He had 8 goals and 2 assists in 51 appearances for Banfield. McGuire is 22 and was selected in the most recent SuperDraft (#6 overall) from Creighton. From Orlando’s announcement about his signing:
McGuire is coming off a breakout year that earned him the 2022 MAC Hermann Trophy, an annual award given to college soccer’s best player. He set the Creighton single-season record for goals (23), picked up Second Team All-America honors, and helped propel his team to the College Cup.
I will say again: it’s exceedingly rare for a SuperDraft pick to get serious minutes. McGuire might be the exception. He has Orlando’s other league goal on the season. Enrique, meanwhile, has started both CCL games for them.
González (21), Þórhallsson (22), and Ojeda (24) are all first year MLS players. Orlando has really turned this roster over. González joins from CA Unión in the Argentina Primera. In 2021, González had 5 goals and 6 assists as a 19-year-old. On the year he has 2 appearances (1 start) with 0 goals or assists. In his 1 start, he appears to have played as a left wing-back.
Þórhallsson joins Orlando from the Norwegian side Mjøndalen. He has 3 appearances (2 starts) with 0 goals and an assist on the year. He’s been started in an attacking midfielder role behind a striker (or 2 strikers).
Finally, Ojeda joins Orlando from Godoy Cruz in Argentina. He made 50 appearances for Godoy, scoring 18 goals (2 PKs) and 12 assists over that time. This includes a 12-goal, 3-assist season in 2021. Ojeda has made 3 league appearances (1 start) so far. He was played as a CAM in this start. He played the same role in his other start against UANL in the first leg.
Ojeda was a $4.01M signing, so the expectations are high for him.
Ojeda Godoy Cruz heatmap from 2022
With Godoy Cruz, he shows a strong bias towards the right. I can’t speak on how exactly he was deployed with them.
Ojeda MLS heatmap from 2023
With Orlando, this bias has not shown up. It probably reflects his more central role for Orlando, though as his Godoy Cruz map shows, he will drift all over the pitch. If he starts, the interplay between him and Torres will be fascinating to watch.
Midfield
In the midfield, Orlando will deploy their last DP, Mauricio Pereyra, Felipe Martins, Wilfredo Rivera, César Araújo, Erick Gunera-Calix, Iván Angulo, Wilder Cartagena, and Shakur Mohammed. Mohammed was Orlando’s other high SuperDraft pick (#2 overall) but has yet to feature for the club. Rivera and Gunera-Calix also have yet to make a senior team appearance.
Felipe Martins joined on a free from Austin. He made 28 appearances for Austin, but only started 5 games. He scored once and had 2 assists. At 32, he’s probably done with being a consistent starter. In fact, you have to go back to 2019, when he was with Vancouver, for him to have made above 10 starts in a season. He has been in MLS since 2012, though, so he definitely knows the league.
Pereyra is the big name of this group. The 33-year-old Uruguayan is now in his 5th season with Orlando, having made 86 appearances (79 starts), including 32 appearances (31 starts) last year. Before Orlando, he was in the Russian Premier League with Krasnodar and was initially a goalscorer. In 2013-14, he scored 6 goals with 4 assists and followed that season up with a 9-goal, 1 assist season in 2014-15. Since then, though, he’s become more of a playmaker. With Orlando, he’s only scored 4 total goals, including just 1 last year. To be honest, he’s been a bit unlucky with his goal-scoring. He had a 2.6 xG in 2021 and a 2.9 xG last year. In each year he only scored once. This isn’t a crazy disparity, so I don’t think it points to a likely upshot of goals; it’s simply noteworthy. He had 7 assists in 2021 and 8 assists last year. He’s yet to get an assist this year, but history says those will come.
So far this year, Pereyra seems to be playing a bit further back than he was in 2022. That’s unsurprising considering the attacking midfield talent (Ojeda, Þórhallsson) they’ve brought in. Regardless of whether you consider him a CAM or CM, his penetrative passing numbers are excellent. He’s among the league leaders in progressive passing, passes into the penalty area, passes into the final third, and key passes. Additionally, he’s excellent when it comes to shot-creating actions. The percentiles below show that regardless of how you consider him (CAM or CM), his passing is elite.
Pereyra Passing Percentiles and Goal and Shot Creation Percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CAMs (left) and CMs (right)
Cartagena is in his 2nd season with Orlando, having joined last year. He only made 8 appearances (4 starts) but joined on loan from Ittihad Kalba in August. The loan is set to expire at the end of this year. Unlike most of Orlando’s other new arrivals, Cartagena is a veteran at 28 years old.
Cartagena has appeared in all 3 league matches for Orlando, starting 2. His role is to be a defensive balance to Orlando’s attacking talent. He does the job very well, as he’s a good tackler and interceptor of the ball.
Araújo and Angulo are both in their 2nd seasons with Orlando. Araújo made 31 appearances (28 starts) for Orlando last year. He’s never had a goal or an assist in his career. He’s appeared in all 3 league games so far but has only started 1. Meanwhile, Angulo joined in the summer of last year and made 9 appearances (5 starts), recording 2 assists. Angulo has appeared in all 3 league games but has made only 2 starts. Both started in the matchups with UANL. Angulo has started as the left wide player when Orlando is in a 4-2-3-1 and as a wingback when they are in a back 5.
Araújo’s job is to be cover, but I’m not sure he’s great at it (he’s not bad). His passing is good and safe (high-ish percentiles for pass completion overall and in the short/medium ranges). He’s not progressing the ball much, but that doesn’t need to be his job when you have someone like Pereyra.
Defensively, he’s a good tackler (83rd percentile), great against dribblers (97th percentile of dribblers tackled), and reads the game well (76th percentile for tackles plus interceptions). With that said, I think there’s a reason they brought in Cartagena. He does all of these things, but better. Araújo is only 21, so Cartagena has 7 years on him. It’s not a surprise that Cartagena would be more solid defensively at this point in their respective careers. Araújo isn’t a great CDM yet, but has the talent to be. It’s also important to note he’s started their two biggest games of the season against Tigres, which does show what the club thinks of him.
Angulo doesn’t have a history of goal contribution. His best season (goal-contribution-wise) was as an 18-year-old in the Colombian league, where he had 2 goals and 3 assists. This got him a move to Palmeiras in Brazil, but he never made an appearance. He got into 3 games with Botafogo before moving to Portimonense in the Portuguese league. He made 32 appearances (27 starts) for Portimonense, but only recorded 1 goal and 1 assist. Last year’s tally of 2 assists in MLS wasn’t bad, especially considering his limited playing time, however, you have to imagine teams are looking for more production from the wing than what he’s historically provided (is he their Jóźwiak?).
It’s a small sample size, but nothing jumps out in Angulo’s percentiles with the exception of his carry numbers. He was in the 91st percentile for carries into the final third and the 85th percentile for carries into the penalty area. He’s only in the 40th percentile for progressive carries, though, so it’s still an area of growth. It must be said that 6.1 90s is hardly enough time to accurately measure his ability.
Defense
Orlando lists 3 young defenders on their roster who have yet to make an appearance this year: Alexander Freeman, Thomas Williams, and Brandon Hackenberg. Of the 3, only Williams has ever had a senior appearance (4 apps, 2 starts last year).
There is a 4th defender, Antonio Carlos, who has yet to make an appearance for Orlando this year. Unlike the others, Carlos has been a key contributor for Orlando at center back over the past few years. He joined Orlando in 2020, having spent 3 years with Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. He made 36 appearances for Palmeiras. Since joining Orlando, Carlos has made 70 appearances, including 64 starts. He’s been out with an injury (yay MLS Availability Report not showing that!) picked up in the preseason. Orlando’s own fans note his absence’s effect on their ability to defend in the air:
Carlos’ most effective aerial season was in 2021, when he tied forward Daryl Dike for the team lead with 2.2 aerials won per game. Last year, with Dike in England, Carlos led the team for the second consecutive season with 1.9 aerials won per game, despite missing time with a hamstring injury.
This aerial ability is real too; it’s not just fan bias. Carlos is in the 74th percentile for aerials won, 89th percentile for aerials lost, and 99th percentile for percentage of aerials won. The other two primary CBs on this roster–Robin Jansson and Rodrigo Schlegel–are horrible. Jansson is in the 6th percentile for aerials won and the 9th percentile for percentage of aerials won. Schlegel is equally inept, as he’s in the 11th percentile of aerials won and 5th percentile of percentage of aerials won.
Charlotte FC currently lead MLS in open play crosses by a wide margin, with 78— 26 per game.
Last year's leader was the New England Revolution with 584— 17 per game. https://t.co/B55dFhEhP8
If there was ever a time when “cross and pray” might work, this is the game. It should be noted that Carlos has been back in training and has made the bench against both DC United and UANL, so there is a chance he plays Saturday. Let’s hope he needs a bit more time.
Carlos’ primary CB partner has been Jansson. Jansson is in his 5th season with Orlando and starts most of their games. Over this time, he’s appeared in 103 matches, starting 99 of them. He provides a little threat in front of goal, getting 4 goals over the past 2 seasons (2021 and 2022). 3 of those goals did come in 2021, so I’m not sure he’s someone that we need to be seriously concerned about, but it’s something to watch out for.
Jansson is a decent passer of the ball, especially when it comes to long passes. He’s in the 86th percentile for long pass completion percentage. This percentage comes on the back of him routinely trying these types of passes (63rd percentile for long passes attempted). He also likes to carry the ball out of the back, as he’s in the 89th percentile for take-ons attempted, the 92nd percentile for successful take-ons, and the 82nd percentile for progressive carries.
Schlegel has been the primary beneficiary of Carlos’ absence. He’s started all 3 games so far, though he did start quite frequently for Orlando over the past 2 years anyway (52 appearances, 39 starts over the 2021-2022 seasons). Schlegel is a good tackler (93rd percentile), especially against dribblers (96th percentile).
Abdi Salim was the 17th overall selection in the most recent SuperDraft. He’s played as a CB in 2 games for Orlando (both times when they were in a back 3 or 5 configuration). This being his first professional season, there’s not much data to look at.
Kyle Smith is a fullback turned center-back*, at least currently. He’s appeared in all 3 league games but has only started as part of a back 3 or 5. He did get into 29 games (14 starts) last year for Orlando, scoring 2 goals. He’s in his 5th season with Orlando, having made 98 appearances (63 starts), scoring 3 goals, and assisting once.
*Note: The regular caveats about formation apply here. I’m basing position designations on the lineups released by MLS. There’s every chance that they show a back 5 with Smith as a CB, but in reality, it was a back 4 with him at his usual fullback position.
To return to the aerial issue Orlando is having and Smith’s role in it. Smith is decent in the air for a fullback (87th percentile for aerials won, 40th percentile for percentage of aerials won). As a center back, though, his percentile for aerials won falls to 22nd. That’s not a surprise, but simply reinforces the idea that this is an area of weakness for them.
Luca Petrasso was with Toronto last year and deployed primarily as a left-back, though he has some designations of wing back and winger as well. He made 23 appearances (21 starts) for Toronto, getting 2 assists. He’s made 2 league appearances and 1 start this year for Orlando, though he did also start both legs in CCL.
Michael Halliday is a young (20) fullback for Orlando. He’s come up through their organization and is actually in his 4th season with the club. He’s made 15 appearances (6 starts) over the past 3 years. Although he made just 6 (0 starts) appearances for 50 minutes last year, that’s not really surprising. Last year–and in the previous 3 prior years–Orlando had Ruan as their starting RB. With Ruan now in DC, it seems Orlando is giving Halliday a legitimate shot.
He’s appeared in all 3 of Orlando’s league games, making 2 starts, and started in both legs of their UANL tie. Being such a young player, there’s not much data to go on, but the fact that Orlando felt comfortable moving on from Ruan probably says it all.
The final defender that has appeared for Orlando is Rafael Santos. He’s in his first season with Orlando having joined from Coritiba in the Brazilian league. Over the past 3 years he’s bounced around a bit: Ponte Preta in 2021; Cruzeiro and Coritiba in 2022; Orlando currently. He’s made 55 appearances (47 starts) over this time. He has 3 career goals and 4 assists to his name, all back in 2021 with Ponte Preta.
Goalkeeping
Orlando has 4 keepers on their roster: Javier Otero, Mason Stajduhar, Adam Grinwis, and Pedro Gallese. Otera has never made a senior appearance and Grinwis has only done so in 2 years: 2021 (2 starts) and 2018 (5 starts). Stajduhar appears to be the backup. He made 2 starts last year and 5 starts in 2021.
The #1 is Gallese. The 33-year-old is off to a strong start in his 4th season with Orlando. He’s made 76 starts for the club, including 32 last year. In terms of raw numbers, last year was not a good year for Gallese. He allowed 47 goals (1.47 goals per 90), only had a 65.9% save percentage, and had a -2.2 PSxG+/-.
Until this year, the goals per 90 have actually increased for Gallese each year since he joined Orlando: 1.05 GA90 in 2020 (19 starts), 1.36 GA90 in 2021 (22 starts), and 1.47 GA90 last year. So far this year, he’s bounced back in a big way with a 0.33 GA90 in th league. He almost single-handedly kept Orlando in their games with Tigres by making a ton of really good saves. Gallese’s save percentage in 73.2% in 2020 and 70.8% in 2021. It’s a ridiculous 92.3% this year.
His PSxG+/- was okay in both 2020 (+2.4) and 2021 (+3.0). This year it’s already at +1.5. Now there is still plenty of time for this number to come down (Kahlina began last year with a strong PSxG+/- but finished in the negatives). Gallese is currently 4th in the league in PSxG+/-.
Gallese Goalkeeping percentiles vs. 2022 MLS GKsGallese Advanced Goalkeeping percentiles vs. 2022 MLS GKs
There’s not much that jumps out in his percentiles. He’s clearly not a bad keeper, but I tend to trust history over a 3-5 game stretch. Maybe this is a career year for Gallese, or maybe it’s a good run. If I had to bet, I’d say he comes down to earth a bit as the year goes on. Let’s hope that starts Saturday.
Conclusion
Desperate times indeed for Charlotte. Many will be calling this a “must-win” for the club and, while I see the logic behind that, I don’t know that I fully agree. Road games are tough in any league. Charlotte is historically very bad on the road. You offer me a draw right now and I’m biting your hand off for it.
The main source of hope for Charlotte probably comes in Orlando’s midweek CCL fixture. How much–if any–has that game fatigued them, both physically and mentally. With the crazy, and ultimately disappointing end, you have to hope a lot.
The second place to pin some hope is that Carlos is at least one more game away from being able to start. Otherwise, their biggest weakness gets patched. One player will not solve their aerial issues, but he will certainly provide a big boost.
From a Charlotte perspective, let’s not beat around the bush. Świderski on the right has not, is not, and will not work. If he’s going to start, Karol needs to be returned to the center of the pitch; it’s a game and a half late for this.
Wing production continues to be an issue for this team. The national media has latched onto Jóźwiak’s lack of production. While I think some of the criticism is unfair (I think he’s been one of our better players on the season), it’s not completely unfair. Charlotte has a goal differential of -6, has scored 1 goal, and was noncompetitive against Atlanta. Jóźwiak has not scored a goal in 92 league games. I’m a fan, but the reality is we need end production from him.
Instead of Świderski on the right, it’s time for Vargas to get the start. I’m a staunch Gaines supporter, but Vargas has earned a start. Each time he’s seen the pitch, he looks bright.
In midfield, while I’m dying to see Nuno Santos get a start, I don’t think it happens. I think we’ll see Świderski, Westwood, and Jones in the midfield.
Editor’s note: for information about how many of us feel about Jones at this current moment, check out our Wednesday pod. I’ll simply speak for myself here and say he was exceedingly bad, in my opinion.
The Bronico experiment at LB is not going well. I understand what CL wants from Bronico in that position, but Atlanta’s attacks all seemed to target that side. Wiley’s two goals were moves that ended on the right of our defense, but the thrusts of those attacks came on the left. The easiest answer to our backline issues is to buy a left back. If that is not going to happen (and I’m pessimistic it will), it feels like it’s either growing pains with Brandt or an uninspiring play from Mora/Afful.
On the other flank, Byrne has not been good. I refuse to believe that his skills have atrophied over a single off-season to the point he’s unplayable. I don’t know what has happened, but I believe the answer lies in how CL has been deploying his fullbacks. I don’t see a world in which Lindsey starts.
This is indeed Lindsey (left), Byrne (right; from English Championship). I've said this before, but the centrality of Byrne is why he plays. This is not to say Lindsey *couldn't* do it, but that he hasn't been asked to. https://t.co/RPszXTfk15
At center back, there is really no reason to change. I don’t think either of Tuiloma or Malanda were great against Atlanta, but that could be said of the entire team. Neither had obvious errors like they did against St. Louis, but both were culpable, to varying degrees, in the goals that were scored. Malanda was especially bad on the first goal.
Sisniega had a rough go of it, too. I’m not sure any of the goals can be fully placed on him, but I would like my goalie to save one of them. Sometimes you just need an unlikely save to keep you in the game and Pablo wasn’t able to do that for us. Is this fair? Probably not, but it’s how I feel. The Araújo goal is the one I really want him to save. I tend to be unfairly critical of goalies, especially when they get beat near-post.
This has not been the start of the season any of us wanted. It’s still too early to declare this season dead, but results need to start happening. Orlando is a good team, but they’re not elite (yet; the talent is real). They’ve had a ton of roster turnover in the past couple of years and started a number of young players who are new to the league. I think there’s a lot of talent in that squad, but I don’t know that they outclass us to the point that it’s impossible to get a positive result. Containing Torres and preventing Pereyra from dictating the game will be key.
Three games into the season, Charlotte FC sit bottom of the Eastern Conference with the worst goal difference in the entirety of MLS. They are one of three teams to be on 0 points and have a worse goal difference than each of the other teams, Houston and Montreal.
It is clear that things have not gone well so far for the 2nd year team, and there was no better example of that than the first half of Saturdays game. Charlotte conceded 3 goals in this half and offered no real structured attack in reply against an impressive Atlanta United team.
Though the fixes for this would not seem simple, the fact is that, at this time, Head Coach Christian Lattanzio is not making things any easier for himself. There are some solutions available to him that we will discuss here, with a particular focus on that first half against Atlanta.
Right now, Charlotte have big questions when it comes to both of the full back spots. Whilst Nathan Byrne playing right back is no surprise, his underwhelming start to the season has raised eyebrows. Meanwhile, Brandt Bronico at left back is something nobody could’ve seen coming, especially after Joseph Mora played a solid game in Charlotte’s opening fixture against New England.
The answer for this decision comes back to one of Lattanzio’s core principles, something we’ve often seen ever since his first game in charge against New York Red Bulls: the inverting of his full backs
Charlotte vs. RBNY, 6/11/22
In Nathan Byrne and Brandt Bronico, Lattanzio will likely feel that he has his best pairing of players for this role – comfortability on the ball paired with the athleticism to cover the spaces they vacate to invert.
Saturday’s game was the first chance to see each of them perform those roles together, contrasting their debut as a full back pair against St Louis, where importantly they played as fairly traditional full backs.
Against Atlanta, Charlotte displayed probably the most complex build up structure in all of Christian Lattanzio’s time as Head Coach. Though the team still had a 2-4 structure that was seen against St Louis, the way this came together was done very differently.
Charlotte at St. Louis, 3/4/23
Here we see this setup in the form it would be expected – the centre backs making up the 2 and the full backs pushed up alongside a double pivot to make the 4. Now compare how this setup is constructed to how it was done against Atlanta.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23
Here, we see a 2-4 structure made up of the same players, except now Jóźwiak has come from his left wing position to play in Bronico’s role, whilst Bronico occupies a more advanced central space as we can see on the end right of the screen.
See also this clip below of how, when the ball moves to the other side of the field, Świderski and Byrne move into these same areas relative to how Jóźwiak and Bronico are structured but on the right side (i.e., Byrne taking up a position higher than Świderski).
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23
It is hard to know exactly why Lattanzio opted for this change, but I suspect that he has 3 core ideas of how he wants his build up to look:
– a base of 2 – a double pivot – inverted full backs
The ‘inverted full backs’ part of this is obviously the major change from St. Louis to Atlanta, but it is also the part that created problems for Charlotte, especially when it came to their first goal conceded on Saturday.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23, first goal
Though the positioning from Malanda does not help, Charlotte’s rest defense from this structure is still incredibly flawed even with correct established position from the centre backs. The hyper-centrality of this structure is always going to create situations where the opposition will have an extra man over in ‘transition-like’ moments. We saw this right from the beginning of the game.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23, second goal
Again, we see Malanda play way over on the ball-side to squeeze that area, and even with right back in position to help, as Byrne is here, the threat of an unmarked player still exists.
This structure doesn’t just present issues defensively, but also when Charlotte are in attack. With the ball in their possession and the full backs inverted, combined with inverting wingers who want to cut inside, you are left with no real byline threat or predictable attack from wide areas.
Take a situation like this one with Świderski and Byrne:
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23
This would typically be a classic situation where the inverted winger would have a full back overlapping to put the player marking the winger in jeopardy as to whether he should stay with his man or follow the overlapping run. In a situation like that, the decision from the defender would inform what decision the winger on the ball makes.
Instead, in this instance we see that the right back is actually in position to play the ball wide from the central area, then shows for the ball again inside before starting an overlapping run. By this point he is coming from too deep and has waited too long, allowing the defense to re-gain their structure.
Some would call this a failed experiment and revert back to what was done against St Louis. While I do agree that this system can not be a long term solution for Charlotte, I do think that of Lattanzio’s ideals for playing, full back inversion takes quite a high priority given how often we have seen it before in his time as coach.
Instead of completely abandoning the idea of fullback inversion, a compromise must be made elsewhere. I believe it’s time for Charlotte to get to a 3-2 structure in buildup that would help them both in and out of possession.
Firstly, a major benefit of a back 3 build up set up is how much it can help your rest defense. A simple way to explain this would be to ask: why are transition moments so threatening in the first place?
The main benefit of playing in transition is the space that it allows you to play in. In a 2-base structure you can quickly by-pass a cluttered midfield in transition if you win the ball high and directly attack a large amount of space where the defense has only 2 outfield players in between the ball and the goal (rather than 3 if you build up in a 3-2 structure). A simple numbers game to help you defensively is clearly offered by setting up with 3 defenders at the base of your in-possession-structure.
In possession, a 3-2 structure gives you a much better chance to get the ball into advanced wide areas. Having 3 players at the beginning of the structure means all angles into those areas are available, and, with only 2 players ahead, this means that the access into these areas is more direct. Consider how much Charlotte struggled to get the ball to those areas on Saturday, and how easy Austin FC are able to do it here from a base 3 structure
Austin vs. St. Louis, 2/25/23
Considering how much investment Charlotte have put into their wide areas, it would be wise to try put them in as best a position as possible. Speaking of which…
A major part of this tactical change has to be the implementation of Karol Świderski back into a central role, and redefining what that central role is.
Putting Świderski back into a central area is a simple first step fix, as we have seen him in the 10 role plenty of times before and know what he brings as the team’s best player. Redefining that role will be much more important.
Take this example from the NYCFC game last season, when Świderski is in the 10 role.
Charlotte vs. NYCFC, 9/10/22
In this setup, Świderski was given a true ‘free role’ to drop deep and facilitate build up, occupying the space in the double pivot to allow one of the original holding midfielder license to get forward. See also how this helps Fuchs, who was playing as an outside centre back in a base 3 in this passage*, get forward into a good position with the ball, link up with Świderski who is still free to relate with other players, then offer a byline threat knowing he has sufficient cover in defense.
*Note: remember, Fuchs is started as a LB in a back 4 base formation this game (4-2-3-1). In this passage of play he is part of a back 3.
Contrast what happens in that above clip with the Charlotte setup now. Currently, we have a hyper-positional setup with no freedom given to Shinyashiki in the 10 role to relate with any of his teammates in build up.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23
The restriction of Świderski out wide, paired with the restriction of the 10 role itself to whoever plays it, shows the merging of both tactical ideas as a structure and tactical instructions per player. Hyper-positionally in effective systems produces the most elite football we currently have in the game, but at other levels, there must sometimes be a merging of structure around a cerebral talent. This type of talent is what Charlotte have in the Polish international.
In a 3-2 setup, more space would be offered in that 2nd phase of build up for a number 10 to drop in to link the play. The link-up play would be seen both in terms of dropping into wide areas to create triangles and in giving one of the double pivot a chance to get forward by looking to drop in centrally
Using Charlotte’s personnel from that Atlanta game, here is an example of how that 3-2 structure in-possession* could look.
In possession formation
*Note: Again, this is not the starting, base formation. That would still most probably be listed as a 4-2-3-1, as shown below, or 4-3-3. The above is what we would look like in possession.
Base formation
Here in this lineup we have: – Direct ball access to the wingers. – Świderski playing centrally with options around him to relate with. – Sufficient rest defense cover with a base of 3 and 5 good athletes for their roles. – A box midfield which gives Charlotte the chance to control the game, both in possession and in transition (should we turn the ball over in the opposition third).
This Charlotte team has a lot of talent, and results will likely turn soon anyway as a result of that. But to give the team the best chance long term to have success, this is a switch that should be strongly considered.
I’ve seen a lot of panic amongst the Charlotte faithful this week. Starting with 2 losses–one against a new expansion club–will do that. However, I want to provide some hope.
First, last year, Charlotte started with 3 straight losses, getting outscored 6-1 and 4-0 in the first 2 games. We’ve only been outscored 4-1 so far this year! Progress!
In all seriousness, though, even with the poor start last year, Charlotte still managed 42 points and barely missed out on the playoffs. Now, some among you may then blame this poor start for us missing out. There is an argument for that. However, I would point to the run of games in late August-early September as what did us in.
We lost 2-1 to Orlando at home on 8/21, followed that up with a 2-0 loss at home to Toronto on 8/27, and then lost on the road to Cincinnati 2-0 on 9/3. Cincinnati and Orlando both finished above us, with the latter getting the 7th seed with 48 points. Toronto finished 13th in the East last year on 34 points.
The point is, a run of bad games can happen. You can’t dig too deep a hole, but I’m simply not panicked yet. I’m not alone in that amongst my colleagues here at The Crown Cast. Unlike Joseph Lowery, who has us as an 8/10 on the panic meter, Logan and I are only at a 4. Justin is a bit higher at a 5, while Euan is lower at a 3. A blowout loss might change things but as of now, I’m feeling ok.
Is good Atlanta back?
Atlanta is currently 4th in the East on 4 points, having won (2-1 at home against San Jose) and drawn (1-1 against Toronto at home) in each of their first two games.
It’s too early to say if this Atlanta team will be back to its normal standard, but I think the indications are good. They’ve turned over the roster, kept talent from last year, and added some exciting talent this year.
Lineups
Atlanta vs. San Jose, 2/25Atlanta vs. Toronto, 3/4
The first thing to notice is that the only change made was up top at striker where Jackson Conway was replaced by Miguel Berry. What’s really worrying about this is two of Atlanta’s big offseason signings–Derrick Etienne, Jr. (I wanted him badly for Charlotte) and Giorgos Giakoumakis (new DP striker)–have yet to start. Giakoumakis came off the bench against Toronto for 31 minutes, while Etienne has come off the bench in both games.
Caleb Wiley, who is listed as a defender on both Atlanta’s site and FBref, has started both games. Last year he saw a good amount of action (26 appearances, 18 starts) as a 17-year-old. According to FBref, he was all over the place, including LB, LW, CM, DM, and WB. Etienne played really well last year for Columbus on the left. I expect him to take that position over at some point soon.
Passing isn’t good but also being compared w/CMs. Think he is flattered by being compared to CMs for his attack numbers but 9 Gs and 6 As on 7.1 xG and 4.2 xA is very good. Biggest issue is he’s another left sided player but does have history of playing right side pic.twitter.com/7EFidL5V6H
What I think is most impressive about this team, at least on paper, is the depth. We’ll get into their players in a bit, but they have a lot of young talent, veteran leadership, and experience across almost every position.
Injury Report
Last week’s MLS Availability Report had 4 players out for Atlanta: midfielder Ozzie Alonso (ACL recovery) and forwards Tyler Wolff (shoulder), Machop Chol (hamstring), and Giakoumakis (visa). Obviously, Giakoumakis’ visa issue was settled by the game last weekend as he featured.
I wouldn’t expect to see Alonso in this game. He’s a good player and was a big loss for them last season but he is also 37 years old now. That recovery will take time.
As far as Chol and Wolff go, I don’t know their status. Chol only saw 80 minutes of game time over 6 appearances last year, so his inclusion or absence is probably not noteworthy.
Wolff got into 5 games last year (4 starts) but failed to score or record an assist. He also had a short loan spell to SK Beveren in the Belgian Second Division. He was recalled in January having only made 5 appearances (0 starts) for only 41 minutes. He didn’t appear in a game for Atlanta after an April 2nd match against DC. I’m not sure why. Wolff is a talented player, but Atlanta has reinforced their squad. He’ll have a battle for time.
Editor’s note: More on this further down, but looks unlikely that Matheus Rossetto will be playing for them.
Attack
Josef Martínez is no more in Atlanta. Having parted ways (in a somewhat ugly fashion), Atlanta loses a great of their young club. I imagine he will remain a great for that club, though. In his stead, Atlanta turns to Thiago Almada to run the attack.
The 21-year-old Argentinian is a monster talent. He only played in one game for Argentina at the World Cup, and only got in for 7 minutes. But the fact that a 21-year-old MLS player even made it on that squad speaks volumes about his talent (and the growth of this league). It’s not bold to say that he will not be long in this league. Europe will come calling.
Last year Almada made an immediate impact for Atlanta, getting into 29 games (25 starts) and recording 6 goals (6.0 xG) and 7 assists (7.6 xGA). The goals and assists are pretty much bang on those expected numbers, which is pretty impressive. He’s already at 2 goals (0.5 xG) and 1 assist (0.2 xGA) for the season, including single-handedly winning the game for Atlanta against SJ in STOPPAGE TIME:
Thiago Almada will be MLS’ most lucrative departure in the near future.
The 21-year-old Argentine World Cup winner delivered a 93’ game tying Golazo & a 99’ game winning free kick to welcome the MLS season for Atlanta in front of almost 70k fans. Gamer 🇦🇷pic.twitter.com/6ZERrIqW9W
The man can and will take over games. These goals are ridiculous and help explain his poor xG for this year, but if he can score these types of goals, he will score more common ones too. The xG from last year doesn’t show luck with his goal-scoring or contributing.
Almada heatmap, 2022 MLS seasonAlmada heatmap, 2023 MLS season
These heatmaps could be used as an exemplar for a CAM. He’s all over the opponent’s half of the pitch and will venture into the box as well. There is a bit of a left-sided bias, so Malanda, Byrne, and whoever is playing as the 6 and right-sided 8 will need to be aware.
Almada wants to dominate the ball, as he should. He was at 73.5 touches/90 last year and is at a ridiculous 97.0 this year. You’re not going to keep him off the ball. The trick is to contain him when he has it.
I mean, you just kind of have to laugh at the ridiculousness of these percentiles. This is Almada vs. 2022 MLS CAMs/wingers. Can you say elite? Sure, there are odd issues. The low touches in the attacking penalty are surprising, but he also doesn’t carry into the penalty area much. That then seems to be a feature of his play, not a deficiency. Honestly, the fact that he’s going to score 6-8 goals, if not more, but also pass this well is terrifying.
Atlanta bought Almada for $15.34M; they are going to sell him for a lot more. I would be surprised if, by the end of the summer window, he’s still in Atlanta.
Elsewhere in the attack, you’ll find the aforementioned Etienne, Giakoumakis Conway, and Berry, as well as Luis Araújo.
Etienne had 9 goals and 6 assists in 33 appearances (25 starts) last year for Columbus. As a wing player, that is excellent. Whereas Almada will stay out of the box, Etienne loves to be in there. He was in the 94th percentile for touches in the attacking penalty area/90 vs. 2022 MLS CAMs/wingers.
Giakoumakis is their new DP striker who they acquired for $4.22M from Celtic. Giakoumakis absolutely lit up the Eredivisie for a year with VVV-Venlo. During the 2020-21 season, he made 30 appearances (30 starts) for VVV-Venlo, scoring 26 goals and getting 1 assist. A whopping 8 of those goals were penalties, however, 18 non-PK goals are nothing to sneeze at. This performance got him his move to Celtic where he had a promising first year. In 2021-22, he made 21 appearances (11 starts), scoring 13 goals (12 non-PK goals) and getting 1 assist. His playing time bottomed out this year, though. He made 19 appearances but only had 4 starts (698 total minutes). He did get 6 goals and an assist during this time.
His heatmaps above (left: 2022/23 with Celtic, right: 2021/22 with Celtic) show a guy who likes to be in the penalty box around the goal. There are goals in his boots; I don’t doubt he’ll get quite a few with Atlanta this year.
While Conway and Berry both got the starts to begin the year, both are bit players. In the case of Conway, he’s still very young (21) while Berry is a bit of a journeyman already (although he’s only 25). Conway has yet to score a goal in MLS, but was prolific last year for Atlanta 2 (11 goals and an assist in 25 appearances). Berry, meanwhile, scored 8 goals for Columbus in 2021 in 18 appearances (9 starts). Since then, he’s made 16 appearances (13 starts) for Columbus (2022), 14 appearances (8 starts) for DC (2022), and 2 appearances (1 start) for Atlanta. He has scored 2 goals (both for Columbus) in all of those appearances.
Finally, there is Araújo. He joined Atlanta in 2021 for $11.50M from Lille in Ligue 1. He was 24 when he joined. Believe it or not, the year previous (2020-21), it was Lille who won Ligue 1 (not PSG).
Araújo spent 4 years at Lille, making 108 appearances and 54 starts. He scored 14 goals and had 8 assists, including 4 goals and 2 assists in his final season with them (when he made 27 appearances and 17 starts for the league winners). Yes, Atlanta signed a guy, entering his prime, from a title-winning team in one of Europe’s Big 5.
In his first year with Atlanta, Araújo made 15 appearances (13 starts), scoring 4 goals and getting 3 assists. Last year, he made 28 appearances (26 starts), scoring 4 goals and getting 5 assists. So far this year, he has played the full 90 of both games but is yet to get on the scoresheet.
Araújo is an interesting case because there is some belief he hasn’t quite lived up to the billing. In some ways, I get that argument, but, also, he’s never scored more than 5 goals in a season in his career (and that was in 2017-18). He is constantly between 2-4 goals and 2-3 assists per year. Whether that kind of return should be viewed as a disappointment for a wing DP is up to the reader. Based on his track record, though, I think that’s about what should have been expected of him.
To be honest, I’m not sure why he came here. I’m not a serious follower of the French league. It would seem he would have had options to remain in Europe if Lille were looking to offload him. Perhaps there weren’t? Or perhaps Atlanta offered the best deal? If anyone knows, I’d love to hear it. Regardless, Araújo will play on the right of Atlanta’s attack. Once Etienne and Gaikoumakis find their way into the starting lineup, Atlanta will boast one of the best front 4s in MLS (at least on paper).
Midfield
Atlanta’s FBref page lists 5 midfielders: Franco Ibarra, Matheus Rossetto, Amar Sejdic, Ajani Fortune, and the aforementioned Almada. For reasons that are hopefully obvious, I have included Almada in the “Attack” section. The official MLS site lists a further 6 midfielders: Ezequiel Barco, Marcelino Moreno, Santiago Sosa, Erik Centeno, the injured Alonso, and Etienne, who has also been included in the “Attack.”
Barco, Moreno, and Centeno are all out on loan. Sosa has yet to make an appearance this year, though he made 21 last year. He hasn’t made an appearance for the club since 10/1 against NE. During the game, he used a homophobic slur against the Revolution earning him a fine and a 3-match suspension. He’s currently listed as “unavailable” on Atlanta’s site, so I’m assuming it’s still fallout from his use of the slur. He didn’t make the bench for either of the first two matches. Fortune is a 20-year-old who has yet to make an appearance for the club.
The two starters in both games have been Ibarra and Rossetto, with Sejdic coming off the bench in both games (for a total of 12 minutes). Sejdic did play a lot for Atlanta last year (23 appearances, 18 starts), but some of that was due to injury. He’s a good depth to have and will probably push for a starter’s position. Ibarra made 20 appearances (11 starts) last year, getting one assist. Rossetto started 19 games (24 total appearances) and also had one assist. Rossetto does have a goal on the year, but neither is in the team to score.
Rossetto has been with Atlanta since 2020 and has made 62 appearances (46 starts). He’s an excellent buildup passer, as his percentiles show:
Rossetto passing percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs
Yeah, that’s basically everything you want from a deep-lying playmaker. Additionally, he likes to dominate the ball (80.90 touches/90) and is able to carry it well (96th percentile for progressive carrying distance). Defensively, he’s nothing to write home about but does like to regain the ball up the pitch (77th percentile for tackles in the attacking 3rd). He’s not bad defensively, but I’d label him as below-average overall.
Ibarra is the yin to Rossetto’s yang. The 21-year-old Argentinian arrived in Atlanta in 2021 as a 19-year-old. He immediately started playing in the first team, making 16 appearances and 9 starts. Last year he made 20 appearances and had 11 starts. At only 5’8.5″ and 152 lbs, Ibarra doesn’t fit the mold of a defensive destroyer, but he is.
Ibarra defensive percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs
It’s clear that Ibarra is in this team to clean up any attacks. These numbers, especially for a (then) 20-year-old, are superb. Unlike Rossetto, he’s not a good passer (56th percentile for passes completed, 49th percentile for progressive passing distance, 47th percentile for total passing distance) nor is he great on the ball (33rd percentile for take-ons attempted, 42nd percentile for carries, 3rd percentile for progressive carries). He doesn’t have to be, though. Soccer is about balance and Atlanta has it in this midfield pairing.
With attackers like Almada and Araújo and passers like Rossetto, you don’t need another offensive-minded player. You need someone who will retain possession, regain possession, and snuff out the danger. Ibarra most certainly does that.
Sejdic, who has come off the bench so far this year, is a good balance of Rossetto and Ibarra. He’s a better passer than Ibarra, but only an above-average one. He’s a really good defender, but not quite as good as Ibarra. As a player to see a game out, he’s perfect. As a player to fill in for either starter, he’s a great option. If Rossetto has to sit, you’d lose some passing ability in the midfield but the defensive nous would be incredibly high. If he had to replay Ibarra, the defensive drop would be minimal but you would add some passing range. I’m a bit jealous of this trio.
Editor’s note: It appears that Rossetto is likely to miss the match. While I believe that this will be a big miss for Atlanta, their fans very much disagree. In the words of many of their fans, he’s “mid.”
Unfortunately, none of them in this thread could give me a good reason for this belief. I was just told either 1) he passes sideways (which the above numbers show is not true; 82nd in progressive passes is the antithesis of “just passing sideways”) and 2) “trust me, bro.” That kind of argument is the one that makes me most upset. I’m willing to admit that I have missed something with Rossetto and that I am perhaps overrating him. I need a better reason than an “eye test” without actual analysis.
Defense
There was a time last year when Atlanta and Charlotte were both fielding an Alan Franco. Alas, our Franco has long departed (the club, not the Earth) and Atlanta has also moved theirs on. To replace Franco’s 31 starts at center back, Atlanta has signed Luis Abrams from Granada, though he only has one appearance off the bench for 11 minutes. Abrams spent the past 2 seasons on loan at Cruz Azul in Liga MX, making 25 appearances (18 starts).
In reality, Abram isn’t the one who will be replacing Franco; Juan José Sánchez and Miles Robinson will. Sánchez is in his 2nd year with Atlanta, having joined from UANL in Liga MX. He made 17 appearances (16 starts) last year and scored an amazing 6 goals. Considering those are the only goals of his 6 season career, I don’t know that I would expect a repeat of them. Robinson is in his 7th season with the club, having made 98 appearances (87 starts). He only got into 9 games (8 starts) last season after having 26 appearances in 2021 due to an Achilles tendon injury. Thankfully, he appears to have fully recovered from that injury.
Robinson is a good passer from the back (82nd percentile for passes completed, 95th percentile for progressive passes, and 73rd percentile for key passes). He’s not a great long-range passer (45th percentile for long passes completed), but he also doesn’t attempt that many of them (46th percentile for long passes attempted). Defensively, he’s tough to get around (93rd percentile for challenges lost) and has good positioning (99th percentile for blocks, 82nd percentile for shots blocked, 98th percentile for passes blocked). Sánchez is just an average passer but shows a similar ability to read the game (88th percentile for blocks, 63rd percentile for shots blocked, 92nd percentile for passes blocked). Neither is overly threatening in the air (Robinson: 68th percentile of aerials won; Sánchez: 77th percentile in aerials won), but both are serviceable.
Abram looks like a stereotypical depth (probably 4th choice) center-back. Nothing jumps out in his percentiles (in his case being compared to 2022/23 Liga MX CBs) except that he’s terrible in the air (1st percentile for aerials won).
The other defender in this center-back equation is George Campbell. The 21-year-old American has yet to appear in a game this year, but got into 35 over the past 2 seasons, including 20 appearances last year. While he’s mainly been deployed as a CB, he has had a couple of games in the midfield (in a pinch). To me, he would appear to be their 3rd choice with Abram as depth.
Atlanta has some really good and interesting pieces at fullback. The two starters are Andrew Gutman and Brooks Lennon, while Aiden McFadden (0 appearances this year, 11 last year) and Ronald Hernández (0 appearances this year, 13 last year) provide depth.
Gutman and Lennon are the kinds of fullbacks Charlotte fans are clamoring for, but not the types that I think Lattanzio is looking for. Just look at these maps:
Gutman heatmap 2022Lennon heatmap 2022
My god, is Lennon even a fullback or just another winger? The answer is winger, as Araújo very much likes to come inside. These types of bombarding fullbacks are what I think most fans expect to see, but as I talked about on Twitter, that’s not what CL is looking for (these are decently long threads there, so check out the full things if you have interest).
To add some context to the Mora/Afful/Bronico LB debate. Let's look at some heatmaps. 🧵
If Bronico is a LB that moves into the midfield when in possession, all of a sudden Westwood isn’t only CDM. Discussed this possibility yesterday with @Stillness_Speed who talked about how last year we created a box midfield at times under CL, but haven’t done so yet this year
Last year was Gutman’s first in Atlanta. He made 25 appearances (22 starts), scoring 4 times and getting 1 assist. Fun fact: Gutman began his professional career with Charlotte in the USL Championship back in 2019.
Lennon is in his 4th season with Atlanta, making 82 appearances (73 starts) during this time. He has 4 goals and 14 assists for Atlanta, including a 2-goal, 6-assist season last year.
These guys both like to get down the sidelines. Coupled with Rossetto and Almada’s passing ability, it makes for dangerous situations. Atlanta is currently leading the league in possession at 63.5%. With the way they push these fullbacks up, that’s no surprise. If they don’t have the ball, they’re at serious risk of the counter. Charlotte is going to need to be smart, decisive, and quick with the ball when in transition.
Goalkeeping
Old–and I use that term literally–friend Brad Guzan continues to man the sticks for Atlanta. Behind him is his geriatric companion Quentin Westberg (36), who was acquired for free from Toronto. Clément Diop, 29, was also acquired on a free from New England. Diop never appeared for NE last year and made just 3 appearances for Miami. Westberg, meanwhile, made 10 appearances for Toronto in each of the past 2 seasons. He did play a few games in the French Ligue 2 (13 starts for Auxerre in 2018-19 being the most), so, as a backup, he’s not a terrible option.
Guzan is obviously meant to be the starter. Like Robinson above, Guzan ruptured his Achilles last year, missing most of the year (he only had 7 starts last year). Now in his 7th season with Atlanta United, the former Aston Villa keeper is…okay.
The raw numbers still look decent: 1.32 goals allowed/90 (GA90) in 2022; 1.00 GA90 in 2021; 1.30 GA90 in 2020; 1.26 GA90 in 2019. The advanced metrics aren’t so kind. Over these 5 years, he’s had 2 seasons in the positive: 2019 when his PSxG+/- was +0.4, and 2021 when it was legitimately good at +4.9. Otherwise, he’s been in the negative including years of -1.9 (2020), -1.1 (2022), and -0.5 so far this year. Now, he’s not terrible by any stretch but he’s a 38-year-old goalkeeper. A decline is normal and to be expected. On a good team, he’s still a fine option.
Where he does still excel is in his reading of the game. Fair warning that due to his injury, last year’s percentile ranks do constitute a small sample size. With that said, he was in the 62nd percentile of crosses faced, but the 96th percentile for crosses stopped and the 99th percentile for crosses stopped percentage. This shouldn’t worry us Charlotte fans at all since our crossing is so terrible that we weren’t going to score that route anyway.
Conclusion
Saturday is not a game that has me confident. Almada is so much better than I thought. On paper, Ibarra and Rossetto form a perfectly complimentary midfield pivot. Araújo is good on the right wing. Both their fullbacks are really good going forward. They dominate possession. They haven’t even started Etienne or Giakoumakis yet. In some ways getting them right now might be a slightly good thing, as Giakoumakis might still not be ready to start for them. On the other hand, I’m not sure how much it’s going to matter.
Against San Jose, Atlanta had 20 shots with 5 shots on goal. Against Toronto, they had 16 shots with 6 shots on goal. That’s 36 shots and 11 shots on goal in two games. Charlotte is at 21 shots and 8 shots on goal for their 2 games. Atlanta dominated possession in each of these games (60.4% against SJ, 66.7% against TOR). Against Toronto, they made 619 passes with a 90% passing accuracy. I’m going to say that again: 90% passing accuracy on 619 passes.
Let’s also not forget that they’ve only allowed 2 goals on the season. San Jose scored 52 goals last year (10th in the league), while Toronto scored 48 (13th in the league). These are not slouches on offense. Yes, Toronto was missing Insigne, which can’t be ignored, but the game plan of Atlanta seems clear. Dominate possession, pass the ball around, and let the attackers eventually win.
I was much more pessimistic about this game when Rossetto was going to play (though I can’t say I’m optimistic…). First, I do believe he’s a good player, especially for the system they are playing, regardless of what Atlanta fans have told me. Second, it seems that they will not just be plugging Sejdić into the system in his place. In Jones’ tweet, he mentions that ATL’s coach Pineda said they are not “set up for two 6s” without Rossetto. This would indicate to me that Rossetto’s absence might also necessitate a change in formation/tactics. If so, it’s always a good thing to me when a team is forced off of their first choice gameplan.
On the Charlotte side of things, Lattanzio has come out and said that the Bronico experiment at LB will continue.
Lattanzio said Bronico at left back is not a one week experiment. Expect to see him there again.
This is good news to me. I’m hoping we see some tactical complexity come into the squad as he learns the role. For this week, it’ll be a tough challenge for him. Atlanta is a good attacking team.
I don’t expect many changes to the team we saw against St. Louis, though I am hoping for 2.
First, I need Świderski to be back in the middle of the pitch. RW did not work for him. On that wing, I do think I would give Vargas the start. He’s looked so bright to start this season; it feels deserved. While I do want Nuno to start, I’m not sure CL is there yet. A midfield of Świderski-Westwood-DJ is the next best option.
I expect Malanda and Tuiloma to bounce back from their mistakes against STL. That bad pass is the only time I can remember Malanda putting a foot wrong. Tuiloma was unlucky, as he did everything but the timing of his jump correctly. The big piece in the backline is Byrne at RB. He was so good last year in his first appearances for the club. This team needs him to get back to that level. We can’t be trying to figure out both fullback positions at the same time.
On Saturday, Charlotte travels to the new kids on the block: St. Louis City SC. The coverage around STL has frustrated a lot of Charlotte fans; there seems to have been a much more positive narrative around them than us. You can even look at Fox Soccer’s (now deleted) Tweet that simply ignores the existence of Charlotte.
Personally, I don’t care that much. St. Louis can be the darlings of the media (even if I’m not quite sure that is completely true). What does intrigue me is the fact that STLCSC (too many letters) just beat last year’s Western Conference Semi-Finalists on the road.
The scorer of this goal–Jared Stroud–was on Austin FC last year. Kipp Keller, the Austin defender in the clip, passes it back to him, out of what appears to be sheer muscle memory. This takes absolutely nothing away from their win–a goal is a goal. But man is this a bizarre thing to see.
In fact, the winner is a really good (mostly) individual goal.
Really, really impressive debut match in MLS for St. Louis City, beating last year’s Western Conference finalists Austin FC 3-2 away from home.
The clip makes it kind of hard to see, but the penultimate pass was really good, while the timing of the run and the individual skill that followed were excellent. The goalscorer for the winner was Klauss, STL’s Brazilian DP (full name: João Klauss de Melo).
There’s obviously not much game tape or stats to be had on STL yet, so we’ll be looking at some of their big names, big signings, and the Austin game.
Austin Game
STLCSC Starting XI at. Austin FC, 2/25/23
According to the official MLS site, STL was in a 4-2-3-1 for the entire game. Based on this sole game, I shall make the bold claim that’s the formation they play.
In many ways, St. Louis was outplayed. Here’s a brief look at the stats from the game.
Game stats STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23
Austin dominated possession, they had 150 more passes, and they had a 10% higher pass accuracy. What they didn’t do, though, was turn that possession into meaningful attacks (seems familiar, eh, Charlotte fans?). St. Louis outshot Austin, both in terms of total shots and shots on goal. While Austin was clinical in their finishing (2 goals from 2 shots on goal), they didn’t do much else.
xG Chart: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23
The xG for this game is eerily similar. Now, technically, St. Louis outproduced Austin by 0.5 xG, but remember that back pass to an opponent that led to a goal? Yeah, that had an xG of 0.49. Without that mistake, St. Louis probably doesn’t win this game.
Now, of all their (many) shots, and aside from the actual goals, STL isn’t taking good shots. The xG on their goals is as follows:
Parker: 0.14 xG
Stroud: 0.49 xG
Klauss: 0.22 xG
Aside from those 3 shots, only two other shots–a shot from Rasmus Alm with an xG of 0.30 in the 44th minute and a shot from John Vincent Nelson with an xG of 0.18 in the 74th minute–had an xG higher than 0.09. Most of these shots were actually incredibly low (0.01-0.05 xG). St. Louis got off a lot of shots, and that seems to be a philosophical strategy, but they weren’t very good ones.
Shot Map: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23
Charlotte was a bit vulnerable last year with shots in central areas just outside the box, so the fact STL isn’t scared to do that might be a problem. With that said, if a team’s primary method of scoring is to get goals from outside the box, they won’t be successful in the long term (not saying this is STL’s actual plan, by the way).
Passing Network: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23
The fact that #19, midfielder Indiana Vassilev, is basically disconnected from the entire team is fascinating. St. Louis doesn’t do much in the midfield. Off this one game, they seem to build through wide areas. For reference, here was Charlotte’s passing network from our opener.
Passing Network: CLT vs. NE, 2/25/23
In general, Charlotte’s passing network is something I plan to keep an eye on this year (also note how there is zero connection between Tuiloma and Mora), but it’s very different from St. Louis. Charlotte looked to maintain possession and build through their midfield (#8: Westwood, #13: Bronico).
The left side was targeted by STL against Austin. It remains to be seen if that was due to perceived deficiencies in Austin or if that’s the side St. Louis will look to build through. Looking at the players they have brought in (more on them later), I tend to think it’s the latter. Byrne and Malanda should take notice.
Looking at this game, Austin made a really costly mistake, didn’t take advantage of their possession, and St. Louis capitalized. I’m not sure Austin deserved to lose, but I don’t think this is a case where St. Louis didn’t deserve a win either. There is some luck involved, but overall, if you can go on the road to a good team and win while scoring 3, you deserve the 3 points.
Roman Bürki
St. Louis’ goalkeeper, Roman Bürki, is probably the biggest name on St. Louis’ roster. The former Borussia Dortmund keeper had a lot of success with Dortmund, but isn’t an otherworldly shot-stopper (as some in the media would have you believe). Bürki ended his Dortmund career with a 69.8% save percentage and 1.24 goals allowed/90.
PSxG+/- only goes back to the 2017-18 season. That year he had a +2.5 PSxG+/-, which is the only year it’s been positive. In 2018-19 he was at -1.0, in 2019-20 he was at -2.5, in 2020-21 he was at -1.6, and in 2021-22 he was at 0.0 (he had only 1 game this season).
In his last meaningful season with Dortmund (2020-21), he made 19 appearances (18 starts). The scouting report…isn’t great…
What is most troubling to me is that he’s not actually facing a ton of shots, but he’s allowing a decent number of goals. As someone who doesn’t follow Dortmund or the German Bundesliga closely, I can’t tell you if this was a result of poor play on his part or on Dortmund’s. Dortmund did finish 3rd that season, so it’s not like they were bad. Moreover, his 1.62 goals allowed per 90 was by far the highest of his career with the German club.
2015-16: 1.03 GA90 (33 games)
2016-17: 1.07 GA90 (27 games)
2017-18: 1.30 GA90 (33 games)
2018-19: 1.25 GA90 (32 games)
2019-20: 1.30 GA90 (31 games)
2020-21: 1.62 GA90 (19 games)
The trend is obviously not very good (i.e., the overall increase in GA90 then an explosion in 2020-21). However, goalkeeping and goals allowed are dependent on more factors than just a goalkeeper’s ability. Regardless, there does seem to be a decline.
For context, Dortmund’s new keeper, Gregor Kobel, had a 1.37 GA90 in 2021-22 (his first season as the starter). He currently has a 1.06 GA90 in 18 games this year.
Editor’s note: big thank you to @_Pancake_Papi for his fan perspective on Bürki. His thoughts mainly backed up the data that Bürkiwas good but, by the end of his time with Dortmund, fans felt it was time to move on. I imagine most of you already follow him on Twitter, but if you don’t, you absolutely should!
Klauss
Klauss is a 26-year-old DP for St. Louis. He began his career in the Brazilian youth ranks (Internacional, Juventude, Grêmio) before moving to 1899 Hoffenheim in 2017.
In 2018, he was sent on loan to HJK in the Finnish first division. He made 33 appearances (28 starts), scoring 21 goals and getting 1 assist. 3 of those goals were PKs, but 18 goals as a 20-year-old is still noteworthy.
Klauss’ next loan stop was LASK in the Austrian Bundesliga. He would spend two seasons (2018-19, 2019-20) with LASK, making 42 appearances (27 starts). He had 3 goals and 0 assists his first season (in 14 appearances), before rebounding for 12 goals (1 PK) and 4 assists in his 2nd season (28 appearances).
In the 2020-21 season, he finally made an appearance for Hoffenheim’s first team, but it would be the first of very few. In total, he made 4 appearances (51 total minutes) for Hoffenheim and failed to record a goal or assist. He spent the rest of the 2020-21 season on loan at Standard Liège in the Belgian First Division, making 13 appearances (10 starts) and getting 8 goal contributions (5 goals, 3 assists). He remained with Standard Liège for the 2021-22 season, making 19 appearances (15 starts) but scoring only once.
At some point during the 2021-22 season, his loan with Standard ended and he was loaned out to Sint-Truiden in the Belgian First Division. He would make 8 appearances (3 starts) for Sint-Truiden, scoring twice.
Klauss heatmap in the Belgian First DivisionKlauss heatmap from MLS
As we can see from his heatmaps, Klauss is a pure center forward. There is a bit of a left-sided bias, but it’s not much. He’s a player who wants to stay central. At 6’2.5″ and 181 lbs, he makes for a physical player.
He’s an odd player to me. I’m not sure the scoring consistency is exactly what you would expect from a DP #9. For reference, his best two goalscoring seasons beat or tie Karol Świderski’s best season (12 goals in 2018-19), but Karol is consistently in the 10-goal-a-season range. Klauss’ production is…erratic.
Playing time can usually be looked at in cases like these, but he’s consistently gotten playing time at every stop–it just hasn’t always worked out. The difference in his two seasons at Standard Liège highlights this.
With that said, he’s hit the ground running with St. Louis. I’m curious to see which striker St. Louis ends up with. Will it be the “HJK-2nd-season-LASK-1st-season-Standard-Liège-Klauss?” If so, it’s a really good move.
Eduard Löwen
Löwen is St. Louis’ second DP that they’ve brought over from a German club. Like Klauss, Löwen is 26. Unlike Klauss, Löwen has a decent amount of experience playing in a top league.
Löwen began his career with Nürnberg in the German 2. Bundesliga. He made 65 appearances (52 starts) for Nürnberg over 3 seasons (2016-2019). In his final season with Nürnberg, they were in the Bundesliga (though they would finish 18th and be relegated). He scored 8 goals and had 7 assists during his time with the club, including a 5-goal, 4-assist season in 2017-2018.
He was loaned out to Augsburg during the 2019-20 season, before moving to Hertha Berlin that same season. In the 2019-20 season, he would make 23 appearances (9 starts) for Augsburg and Hertha. He had 2 goals and 1 assist for Augsburg, but failed to score or assist for Hertha. In 2020-21, he would only make 7 appearances (1 start) for Hertha and, again, failed to score or assist.
In 2021-22, he joined Bochum on loan, making 26 appearances (15 starts). He scored 2 goals (1 PK) and had 2 assists.
Like Klauss, this seems a player that showed potential before fizzling out a bit. Brought in by St. Louis to be a playmaker–like Klauss–he has gotten off to a good start, as he already has an assist.
Let’s take a look at some heatmaps (they go in reverse chronological order):
Löwen heatmap for 2023 MLSLöwen heatmap for 2021-22 with BochumLöwen heatmap from 2019-20 with Ausburg and Hertha BerlinLöwen heatmap for 2018-19 with NürnbergLöwen heatmap for 2017-18 with Nürnberg
Two things interest me about these heatmaps.
First, there isn’t a ton of consistency with them. The one consistent aspect of them is that there is a left-sided bias, except for the 2018-19 season when that bias is shifted towards the right (although he is all over the pitch). In 2019-20, it looks like he was mostly playing as a left-sided central midfielder.
Second, his most productive season, at least from a goal-contribution perspective, was 2017-18 when he was playing his deepest. Now, that is the year that Nürnberg earned promotion to the Bundesliga, finishing 2nd in the 2. Bundesliga. Perhaps that explains the production (i.e., he played for one of the best teams in that particular league). The second-best year for goal contribution was the next year, though, when Nürnberg was newly promoted. He’s not as deep as the 2017-18 season, but he’s further back than he will be in the subsequent years.
It appears that St. Louis is reverting him back somewhat to his positioning from those days. Although he was given the #10 shirt, he started and played as part of the double pivot in their 4-2-3-1.
It didn’t necessarily work out for him in the Bundesliga, but he seems a talented player. Importantly, he has experience playing against top competition in that league, which should prove useful. He won’t be facing a Bayern Munich in MLS.
Further, while St. Louis isn’t expected to be great this year, he’s mostly played at lower-level clubs in a top division. Due to the nature of American soccer and the structure of MLS, there’s greater upward mobility for clubs. The chances of a Bochum or Nürnberg seriously competing in the Bundesliga are infinitesimal. The chances of St. Louis–or any other MLS team–being able to go from a bottom feeder to a contender in a few years is absolutely possible (if not always likely).
Overall, it seems a smart move to me and someone who provides great experience for a new club, while also being relatively young.
Conclusion
There aren’t many solid conclusions that can be made from the first game of a new club. They have had a better start than Charlotte did, that’s for sure, but I’m curious to see how they hold up.
There are a few other players of note who do interest me on them. Njabulo Boom is a 23-year-old South African who was brought over from Kaizer Chiefs in the South African Premier Division. He made 69 appearances (53 starts) for them over 5 seasons, with most of those coming in the last 3. He had 4 assists for them in 2021-22. He came off the bench in the first game, replacing Vassilev.
Speaking of Vassilev, there’s talent there. This is a guy who had time with Aston Villa (mostly their junior team) and a couple of other English clubs in the lower divisions of England. He’s had two stints with Inter Miami, making 45 appearances (20 starts) and scoring 5 goals. At only 22, there’s still a lot of time for him. I am a bit confused about St. Louis’ decision to start him as a DM when it appears he’s mostly been a wide or attacking midfielder, with a bit of central midfield thrown in. Based on that passing chart, I’m not sure this experiment worked. It is just one game though.
Lastly, Isak Jensen is their YDP. He didn’t make an appearance during the first game and only has 19 career appearances (5 starts) for SønderjyskE in the Danish Superliga. I’m not sure what the plan with him is, but as a YDP, you have to imagine the 20-year-old will feature at some point.
From a Charlotte perspective, I don’t think we have to be overly concerned. I’m not convinced Bürki is very good anymore. He’ll probably be better in MLS than he was his last few years with Dortmund, but I’m not sure I see him being a wall. An average MLS goalkeeper seems likely to me.
The fact that St. Louis was able to score so many goals in their debut game worries me since Charlotte still can’t score. With that said, we have a number of new pieces, especially in attack.
There were moments in the New England game where you could tell that the connection between different players just wasn’t there yet. Early in the first half, there was a sequence where Westwood attempted a pass to Enzo Copetti. Copetti clearly expected Westwood to play him into space behind the line, while Westwood expected Enzo to want the ball at his feet. In the end, a Revs’ defender intercepted the ball. As these players get more game time together, I expect these types of miscommunications to decrease.
In the opener, I walked away thinking that Mora had a good game. I’ve heard from a number of places online that I might have that wrong. The supporter’s section offers a lot, but it doesn’t always allow for great analytical viewing. I do maintain that even if he was caught out a bit defensively, two things are still true. One, CL likes his FBs to play a bit inverted and that may have contributed to his perceived (or real) lack of good defensive positioning. Two, he had some of the better crosses for this game. On a team that struggled as a whole to produce dangerous crosses, this shouldn’t be overlooked. He might not have been quite as good as I thought when viewing him live, but I think he might have had an above-average Joseph Mora performance.
Our friends over at the Charlotte Soccer Show brought up the idea of Jóźwiak at LB. It’s not something I’m necessarily against, especially as it looks like we’re not bringing in a new LB (fingers crossed reverse psychology works!). With that said, I’m not convinced.
Idea of Jóź to LB is interesting one, but not fully sold on it. He's a good defender for a winger, but I'm not sure how well that translates to LB. He's about 2.08 tkls/90. Best (defensive) LBs are about 1 tkl/90 higher. Lot goes into that. He doesn't have to be a *defensive* LB. https://t.co/82CYxgmudC
Our formation was listed as a 4-3-3, which confused me a bit. I’m still not sure Świderski can handle the #10 (though I have hope); I’m even less convinced he can be an #8.
I didn’t think he had a bad game overall, though his touch let him down a bit. The pass that led to the goal was absolutely atrocious and can’t be happening from one of our supposed leaders. I put 95% of that goal on Karol, though our tracking back did nothing to help matters. If you’re a masochist, go look back at that goal. At one point, there are 4 Charlotte players between 2 New England players and the goal. One of those NE players is Kessler, a CENTER BACK. Its…not good.
It was also interesting that when Shinyashiki came on, Andre didn’t go to the wings. Rather, Świderski did and, honestly, I thought Andre provided more through the middle of that game.
Aside from LB, the positions with the most questions over starters are the wings. The pitchforks are already out for Jóźwiak and Gaines. While I agree neither had a good game on Saturday, I think both deserve a few more games. This is especially true of Jóźwiak. I will also acknowledge that Vargas looked much better than either and he might be this year. I still want to see that kind of performance from him more consistently before I fully commit to it, but if that appearance was a new normal, then, yes, he should be starting.
In that same thread about Jóźwiak as a potential LB, I delve into Vargas’ numbers from last year. There isn’t much difference between the two and, in a number of categories, Jóźwiak outpaces him. Again, if the form he showed against NE is the new norm, then he must play.
To be honest, aside from maybe trying Afful out at LB (*shudder*), I wouldn’t change the lineup for St. Louis. I’d still have Jóźwiak and Gaines on the wings, with Vargas as the first off the bench for either if they’re struggling.
I would really like to see Nuno Santos get some time this weekend, though not on the wing. I’ve heard he played there over the preseason and maybe it can work. I just have my doubts. More importantly, I just get the feeling he’d be better in the middle of the park. No, I don’t know where he’d play in the midfield with our current players and formations.
I’m sure the atmosphere in St. Louis will be electric on Saturday, but I’m hopeful about this game. Let’s go spoil a party.
Charlotte FC have continued there commitment to building for the future in the last few weeks with multiple signings for the newly created Crown Legacy. Perhaps none are more high profile than Nikola Petković, a midfielder from Serbian side FK Čukarički.
Petković’s star rose considerably after making his debut for the Serbian National Team last month, doing so against the USMNT in a friendly match. It is reported that Charlotte had to fight off plenty of competition to secure the 20 year old’s signature, and their belief in the player was displayed with a significant transfer fee of $3 million, one of largest fee’s paid for a player in the clubs short history.
Player Profile
Petković is a right-footed midfield player who has experience playing in multiple systems, but has most commonly been used as a single-pivot 6 or on the right side of a double pivot. This positional versatility already adds extra value to the player. Additionally, the roles he has often performed so far in his career show potential translation to playing as an 8 or as a wide-right midfield player.
Petković arrives at Charlotte with great pedigree having now represented Serbia at Senior Level, but has also consistently represented Serbia at youth level from Under 15’s to the Under 16’s, Under 17’s, Under 19’s and Under 21’s – a testament to his potential as a prospect. Along with his experience at international level, Petković has logged over 700 minutes of professional club football, the majority of these coming in the Super Liga Srbije, the top tier of Serbian League Football.
Strengths
Petković has a wise head on young shoulder when his team is in possession. He is vocal in organising build up and has a great understanding of how to manipulate the opposition. Take for example this passage of play that ultimately results in a goal.
Nikola Petkovic #44 playing against FK Mladost GAT, November 2022
The first thing to notice is how Petković moves into position to receive the ball for the second time in the passage. Rather than take a more direct diagonal run to the space, he makes sure he is always behind the attacking player and out of his vision so that he does not go with him to apply once he receives the ball.
Petkovic hiding behind the attacker as the ball progresses
After a scan over each shoulder, Petković elects for the bounce pass back to the defender, where we see the next interesting part of the passage.
Only a short while after the defender receives the ball again, Petković starts orchestrating the build up with assertiveness beyond his years. He calls for the pass to be played into the midfielder with the view to bouncing it outside. Despite the defender rejecting the ball inside to the midfielder to be played to the space on the left, he decides to play it over there directly himself. You can see that this has come as a result of Petković’s instruction and not of the defender’s own intuition, as the defender’s eyes did not scan this area until Petković alerted him to it.
Take also this moment in another build up phase, from later in the same fixture.
From this, we can see Petković doesn’t even need the ball at all to be able to impact the build up phase – he understands how he can manipulate the oppositions structure to create space for others as a deep midfielder. His movement is not with intention of receiving the ball (we see no gesture or real ‘showing’ for the ball) but clearly to manipulate the positioning of the oppositions number #10 and free his midfield partner to carry the ball into the space he has now been granted.
In just 6 seconds, we go from a situation where no clear options of progression are open:
To a situation where the midfielder is driving forward with the ball and has plenty of options, with the opposition scrambling in a transition phase. All of this comes from that one piece of structure manipulation from Petković.
Overall he boasts a very mature game. His awareness of the field combines with his already developed ability to scan the field when his team is in possession, which he was able to showcase against the USMNT in the friendly played just last month. This was arguably his best performance as a pro and gave him the chance to showcase all the on-ball ability that makes him such a tantalising prospect.
Čukarički's 19-year-old Nikola Petković had one of the strongest senior debuts I've seen for 🇷🇸.
Showed everything you want in a CDM: excellent decision-making, composure & ability to attract pressure, resolute tackling, carrying & played until it hurt.pic.twitter.com/uvnmlsjrNe
An interesting exercise with this video is to count the number of times we see a scan from Petković, and the variation of his scanning when it comes to playing in different areas of the field.
The clips of his ball playing ability in the final 3rd here are promising and were also there to be seen at times during his games for FK Čukarički.
To see these instances of confidence playing forward in the final 3rd add to Petković’s ceiling as a player. When combined with his traits shown earlier, you can see how he projects as a player who can thrive in a ball dominant system.
Weaknesses
When discussing Petković’s positional versatility, the off-ball side of his game must be considered, as this is what creates more questions about where and how he should be best deployed on the field.
Firstly, his size and athleticism does not project well to playing the single pivot, especially not in a ball dominant system. In a team that has the majority of the ball, the single pivot is relied upon to cover large spaces in transition as well as thrive in duels, whether they be in the air or up against ball carriers. Petković stands at 5’11, while most players who thrive in this role tend to be at least 6’2 and above. Combine this with Petković’s slender frame (although this is something that can improve given his age) and his current profile does not project well to the role.
Further, Petković’s smarts and instincts when in-possession, unfortunately, do not translate to off-ball moments just yet. He can often be caught out by runners around him and/or runners that he is man marking. This can make for high-level chances for the opposition, as shown in the clip below (Petković is the player on the right side of the centre circle when the clip begins):
Nikola Petkovic #44 playing against FK Novi Pazar, October 2022
Moments like these are common in Petković’s game. They’re made especially concerning by the fact that this situation initially does not offer any real threat, but by one player being loose, it becomes very dangerous. In this particular instance, it lead to a goal.
This also shows the issues when it comes to his athleticism. Other, more athletic players committing the same error may be able to recover with speed. This is something he does not possess in his game yet.
It is almost the reverse to what we saw earlier from Petković’s ability to manipulate opposition structure when his team is in possession. Offensively, he can turn settled moments into threatening ones with his high on-ball IQ and, defensively, his issues off-ball can do the same.
The next development for his game will be to prevent doing this for the opposition when they are on the ball, to the detriment of his own team. Because Petković is such a young player, this is an area of his game that most coaches would see as fixable as he gains more experience.
Summary
Despite only being a short while into his career, there is enough already in Petković’s game-film to show that he can be a highly productive MLS-level player in the near future. Though he will initially join Crown Legacy – a decision that I do feel is best for his development – I believe he would be fully capable of handling MLS should he have been signed directly to Charlotte FC. I would not be shocked to see him feature in the match day squad at some stage during the 2023 season, with the projection being that he would be a significant contributor to Charlotte FC come the 2024 season.
Charlotte currently play a 4-2-3-1 system, one that I believe will look to give the team the majority of possession in most games (based off Head Coach Christian Lattanzio’s quotes and the game strategy he employed last season). This system is the one that will give Petković the best chance to succeed, i.e., playing on the right side of the double pivot. This set-up gives him the best chance to show off his best qualities, whilst also looking to mitigate some of the flaws in his game. Being so young, there is plenty of time for him to work on eradicating these issues from his game.
Alongside other signings made in the last few weeks, Petković will make Crown Legacy a must watch when possible for any Charlotte FC fan this season.
After a few months away, Charlotte FC will finally be playing meaningful games back at the Bank. As Year Two rolls in, expectations amongst the fanbase are high. Nationally, the outlook is more mixed.
Many fans might be surprised by the relative lack of belief in this team. On average, we’re looking at these experts predicting a 10th-place finish for Charlotte (9.9167 repeating, to be exact). I personally think they could be a playoff team. My money is on them getting around 48 points, which would (historically) be good for about 7th or 8th place. Obviously, Andrew Wiebe is our new favorite media (sorry Bogert!).
Kljestan, Lowery, Ortiz, Slaton, and Bradley Wright-Philips’ 13th-place finish predictions all seem overly negative, at least to me, but it must be admitted that this is a team with some serious issues and question marks.
The acquisition of Bill Tuiloma does assuage some concerns I have regarding center-back, but left-back has not been touched. It remains a terrifying proposition to have Harrison Afful or Joseph Mora as our starter there for the entire season. Additionally, we will be starting the season without our #1 keeper in Kahlina, though there is an argument to be made that outside of his first 7-10 games, he wasn’t overly impressive. I’m not sure how many are ready to hear that, though.
Finally, Jóźwiak, Świderski, and Copetti represent 3 DPs with huge question marks. I’m a firm believer in Kamil and Karol, but I’m not sure either lived up to the billing of a DP. Well, we can actually be honest and say that Jóźwiak definitely didn’t. While the 10 goals and 4 assists were nice, you probably want a bit more from a DP #9 (or #10), in Karol’s case.
Enzo has me excited but this is a player with a limited (albeit good) track record, coming to a new league and country, returning from serious injury, and learning a new language. To say that he might need an adjustment period is an understatement. The unfortunate reality, though, is that he and Charlotte can’t afford an adjustment period. This team desperately needs goals and if it takes him a while to get off the mark, it probably won’t be a good thing for this club.
My previews usually consist of a look at the previous games for clubs, as well as their overall stats. With this being the first game of the season, those are not available. While I could look at last year’s formations and such (and I will to a degree), I think it might be more useful to look at who NE has added to this roster for the 2023 season.
Last year was a down one for New England. The 2021 record-setters found themselves finishing 10th in the East with 42 points (a 31-point decrease from 2021!), a -3 goal differential, and a -9.0 xG differential.
To me, their issues seem twofold. One, they had an aging roster. Two–and probably more important for last year’s team–they lost Adam Buksa midway through the year. The 25-year-old Polish striker had 7 goals and 2 assists in 10 games (9 starts) for them. Their leading goalscorer last year, Gustavo Bou, only had 8 goals and 2 assists in 19 games, while the 2nd top goal-getter, Carles Gil, had only 7 goals (but 9 assists!) in 33 games. No one else had more than 4. New England, like Charlotte, could not score.
Since last summer, NE has effectively secured 5 new players: CF Giacomo Vrioni (24), old Charlotte friend (?) Christain Makoun (22), CAM Latif Blessing (26), CF Bobby Wood (30), and CB Dave Romney (29). They made a few more moves during the summer of last season, but a number of those players (former Charlotte draftee Ismael Tajouri-Shradi among them!) are no longer with the club. These acquisitions haven’t necessarily done much to drastically reduce the age of this squad, but they have targeted a number of younger players. Three players in particular interest me: Vrioni, Blessing, and Romney. We’re all intimately familiar with the Makoun experience and Wood, now 30, has made enough appearances with USMNT to be familiar to most. Also, Wood has scored 6 total goals in the past 5 seasons, so I’m not sure how much we should care about him in general. This appears a pure depth move by NE.
(Fun Fact: Wood had 17 goals and 4 assists in 2015-16 for Union Berlin. For the rest of his career, which spans 12 seasons, he has 22 goals, along with 4 seasons of 0 goals. This man has started for the USMNT. Sigh…)
Giacomo Vrioni
Vrioni is DP who joined from Juventus last summer for $3.89M. Like Charlotte’s DPs, he’s mostly still an unknown.
He began his career with Sampdoria, though he never made an appearance. He would go on to play for Venezia in Serie B (2018-19), where he made 24 appearances but only had 1 goal and 1 assist. In 2019-20, he had appearances for Cittadella in Serie B (4 apps, 1 assist, 0 goals) and Juventus (1 appearance, 0 goals, 0 assists). He was on loan last year with WSG Tirol in the Austrian Bundesliga, where he made 25 appearances (20 starts) and had 20 goal contributions (17 goals and 3 assists), according to FBref. Wyscout does have him at 19 goals and 4 assists for these appearances. Transfermarkt has him at 17 goals but 4 assists, while SofaScore has him at 17 goals and 3 assists. I’m not quite sure why there is this discrepancy, but it appears that Wyscout is giving him 2 more goals than he should have. Of his goals this season, 3 were PKs. His move to NE produced 7 appearances (2 starts) but only 1 goal (a PK).
When scoring, he is predominately a left-footer. Note: I’m using Wyscout’s 19 goal total for this because they have a handy breakdown of how he scored (left foot, right foot, head). Keep in mind the goal discrepancy they have (i.e., 2 more than other sources).
Left foot: 10
Right foot: 3
Head: 5
It should also be remembered that he had 3 penalties and, as he’s a left-footer, those inflate his total a bit for that side. Still, he’s a tall man who scores how you would expect: with his primary foot or head.
Listed at 6’2″ and 172 lbs, Vrioni is in the mold of Buksa (who is 6’3″ and 172 lbs). NE obviously sees Vrioni as Buksa’s long-term replacement, but the question remains can he be? While his year in Austria was hugely successful, so far it has been a fluke of a season. For NE to be successful, his Austrian-league form needs to be his new norm.
Vrioni heatmap 2021/22
This heatmap shows a prototypical center-forward. There isn’t much happening on the wings, but anything down the center includes his involvement. His movement will test Malanda, and whoever is paired with him.
Latif Blessing
Blessing is a really interesting player. He was briefly linked to Charlotte during the summer transfer window and, honestly, he’s a player that would probably do well on this team.
Blessing is diminutive, listed at only 5’4.5″ and 141 lbs. He started his career with Sporting KC, where he made 25 appearances in 2017, scoring 3 goals and getting 1 assist. He was drafted by LAFC in 2018 and exploded with them over the next two seasons. In 2018, he got 5 goals and 6 assists in 30 appearances (18 starts). He followed that up with a 6-goal, 3-assist season in 34 appearances (29 starts).
So what has happened to Blessing? It appears to be positioning.
Positioning can make a huge difference for players. This is not groundbreaking but it can be overlooked. Positional changes can help account for the emergence of players such as Hany Muktar, Luciano Acosta, and Cucho. My first thought was this was the case with Blessing.
Here’s a bunch of heatmaps!
Blessing heatmap, 2017, with KC
Blessing heatmap, 2018, with LAFC
Blessing heatmap, 2019, with LAFC
Blessing heatmap, 2020, with LAFC
Blessing heatmap, 2021, with LAFC.
Blessing heatmap, 2022, with LAFC
These are no help, at least initially.
In his first two seasons with LAFC, which, remember, are his most productive from a goal-contribution standpoint, it appears they played him in a more attacking role, both based on his heatmaps and positional designations.
2018: it appears that he’s playing as a winger. This is backed up by his positional designations on FBref (mostly LW/LM and RW/RM).
2019: he’s all over the park with his heatmap. FBref has him listed as anything from a LM to a RW to CM to RB, so this makes sense. In multiple games, FBref has him playing as a LM/LW and RB in the same game.
For both of these years, his positional designations and heatmaps correspond with his goal and assist output. Then things change.
2020: his heatmap has him as a right-sided player, which is backed up by designations on FBref of mostly RM and RB (with some CM thrown in).
2021: his heatmap finds him similarly deployed, but he’s back on the left a bit more too. Again, he’s listed a lot as a RM or RB, but now there’s a lot more CM thrown in, which explains the encroachment into the left side of the park without him actually being formally deployed there too often.
2022: last year’s heatmap has him all over the pitch again, but the designations remain mostly RM and CM.
So where does that leave us with Blessing? To me, first and foremost he has proved to be an incredibly flexible player. I love players who can do jobs all over the pitch and blessing appears to do that. Again, he’s a player that Charlotte could use. With that said, oftentimes a player who has positional flexibility has it because he can’t nail down one position. In general, I don’t think Blessings’ decrease in goal contributions is related to a decrease in skill. Rather, I think it has to do with LAFC progressively moving him farther back on the pitch.
This then leads us to the question of how will NE use him? One indication is if we look at how they designate him. If you look on FBref, you will find Blessing listed as a “FW-MF (CM-WM).” Transfermarkt has him listed as a “midfield-Attacking Midfield.” SofaScore has him as a “M” (for midfielder). The Revs, though, are listing him as a forward. This would indicate to me that they plan on having him revert to a role more similar to his first two years–and especially his first year–in LA.
When looking at the composition of their team, this would make sense. Below is the heatmap for their great CAM, Carles Gil.
Gil heatmap, 2022. Via SofaScore.com
Blessing isn’t going to be a CAM for NE and I wouldn’t think they’d pair these two in the midfield either. Gil is only listed at 5’6.5″ and 150 lbs. That would be an incredibly tiny midfield. Pushing Blessing to the wing would make more sense. Additionally, NE employs a really good RB in Brandon Bye (2 goals, 7 assists last year). Finally, against Chicago for the last game of the year, NE had Nacho Gil as their starting RW. Nacho Gil is no longer on NE (in fact, he’s currently without a club). Blessing could see time on the left wing, too. It appears Bou started there in the 2022 finale, though. All signs point to Blessing being their new right-sided forward.
Editor’s Note: Apparently NE did resign Nacho Gil. Transfermarkt’s transfer page for NE had him listed as “Without Club,” which threw Josh off. He was resigned by them in January. However, he is listed in the injury report so unclear if he’ll factor in the game.
For what it’s worth, MLS’s official site’s preview of NE has them in a 4-4-2 diamond, with Bou as a 2nd striker to Vrioni and Blessing as a right midfielder in the diamond. This is obviously a very possible formation, but according to FBref, NE was almost exclusively a 4-3-2-1 team last year. Whatever the formation, my gut tells me they’ll be looking to push Blessing higher up the pitch on the right side. This move has been a bit under the radar, but I think it’s a really good one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Blessing back up to 5-7 goals and 4-6 assists this season.
Dave Romney
Romney is a veteran of MLS. He began his career with the LA Galaxy, making 84 appearances (69 starts) for them over 5 seasons. He joined Nashville in 2020 and became a mainstay. In 3 years with Nashville, he made 87 appearances with 86 starts!
Romney will chip in the odd goal (3 goals last year, 9 for his career). More impressively for a center-back, though, he will chip in assists. He has 11 career assists, including 5 over the past 3 seasons. At 29, he’s still in his prime as a defender and, having played the last few seasons for a notoriously defensive-minded side, he’s a good addition for NE. He’ll be paired with Henry Kessler, who is a bit of a forgotten man. Kessler was very good for NE in 2021, but last year he was coming back from injury. It doesn’t appear that he ever really got back to full form last year. Now a year removed from injury, this CB-pairing has the potential to be one of the best in the league.
Romney defense, passing, and miscellaneous percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CBs
As we can see, Romney is quite good against dribblers when pressed into it, but doesn’t appear to be a front-footed defender. It should always be noted that defensive metrics are never as telling as offensive ones and CBs are often products of their team’s scheme. Regardless, it should make for an interesting matchup between him and Vargas or Gaines (I’m assuming).
His passing is middle of the road for a CB, but the rate at which he crosses into the penalty area is interesting. Kessler’s passing ability is very good, which should help make up for Romney’s lack of range.
Finally, Romney is good at aerials. Kessler isn’t terrible (46th percentile for % of aerials won) in the air, but NE probably wanted to find someone to bolster this area. Like with most great CB pairings, it’s not about each partner doing everything well; it’s about the balance between the partners. On paper, Romney and Kessler appear to balance each other out very well.
There are a few other players that should be highlighted for New England.
First, I haven’t touched on Gil, but he really is an amazing player. I know he rubs a lot of Charlotte, and MLS, fans wrong because of his reputation for being a bit dive-y. I’ll admit, I don’t really see that in him (or at least not any more so than other players). At 5’6.5″, he’s not a big guy, so going down under challenges is probably to be expected. Regardless of how you feel about him, here are his stats since he’s joined the Revolution:
Yes, the PKs do inflate his goal numbers quite a bit, but he’s not a striker. As such, PK inflation doesn’t bother me as much with him as it would with a #9. These assist numbers are also from FBref, as–say it together–soccer should not have hockey assists (looking at you, MLS official stats). It’s difficult to understate how good Gil is at getting the ball to his teammates. NE scored a total of 47 goals last year, meaning that he provided the assist on almost 20% of them (19%, to be exact). With better forward play throughout the year, he probably hits double digits again. The Revolution goes as Gil does. I’d be tempted to man-mark him.
In goal, NE keeps finding talent. Having sold Matt Turner to Arsenal, one would expect their goalkeeping to become a weakness. Instead, they inserted a 22-year-old Đorđe Petrović into goal and he instantly became a top 5 MLS keeper, at least. There are even rumors of Manchester United keeping close tabs on him.
Petrović made 21 starts last year, allowing 27 goals, having an 82.7% save rate, and keeping 7 clean sheets. He had an outrageous +13.1 PSxG+/-, which was good for 1st in the league. He did have 13 fewer games than Andre Blake of Philadelphia, who for my money is easily the best keeper in MLS. Blake was 2nd in MLS in PSxG+/- at +10.0. Petrović’s PSxG+/- was double that of 3rd place Dayne St. Claire (+6.9). For further reference, Kahlina ended the season with a -3.6 PSxG+/-, good for 54th in the league! Yes, that ranking obviously includes keepers who only made 1 or 2 starts, but, again, we might have a goalkeeper issue. Topic for another day…By the way, Gaga Slonina, who Chelsea paid an estimated $15M for, had a -0.5 PSxG+/- in 32 games. Yes, Slonina is 4 years younger than Petrović, but we might all have been paying a bit too much attention to the wrong young goalkeeper.
The biggest thing that jumps out to me about Petrović is his ability against crosses. He was in the 67th percentile for crosses faced, 89th percentile for crosses stopped, and 89th percentile for crosses stopped percentage. Plan A should not be to jump lump the ball into the area.
It’ll be interesting to see if Petrović can keep this pace up. If so, two things will be true. 1) We will have a new best goalkeeper in MLS and 2) He will quickly not be in MLS (therefore reverting back to us having the same best goalkeeper).
New England is a tough team to face first. Having played them last season with Buksa, we at least face a worse striker, but they continue to employ one of the best creators in the league (Gil), one of the best goalkeepers (Petrović), have added a potentially dangerous winger (Blessing), and improved their defense (Romney).
There are a number of players I haven’t touched on either that can’t be ignored. Both of their fullbacks, Bye and DeJuan Jones, are some of the better ones for this league. Matt Polster serves as a good midfield anchor, while Andrew Farrell is probably now the best 3rd CB in the league. Veterans such as Thomas McNamara, Jozy Altidore, Wood, and Omar Gonzalez provide good depth (if not the overall quality they each individually had).
Expectations for NE from their fans are probably playoffs, but I think they’re probably a similar team to Charlotte in that both have some holes, some question marks, and definite room for overall improvement. They seem like a team that will probably be fighting with Charlotte for that 6th-9th spot. As such, it’s an important game for us. Of course, if Vrioni makes a jump and Blessing reverts back to his 2018 and 2019 form, coupled with Gil, they could finish higher.
For Charlotte, my worry comes in defense. Up top, I expect a front 4 of Jóźwiak-Copetti-Gaines-Świderski. I can actually see that being a very potent lineup. The biggest question of that group is probably whether it will be Gaines or Vargas. I’ve said it before, Vargas right now is what people think Gaines is. Vargas has a higher ceiling, to be sure, and needs plenty of playing time this year. Right now, though, Gaines is the better player and should be starting.
(Note: Justin did bring up on the preview pod this Wednesday that Vargas’ delivery has looked better in the preseason. As I said on the pod, 1) I don’t really put too much stock into the preseason and 2) wasn’t able to see any of those games. If he has truly improved his delivery, the difference between Gaines and him–which already isn’t very big–becomes even smaller and the argument for him to be starting becomes more justified.)
In the midfield, I expect to see Westwood and Bronico. I’m a big fan of Nuno Santos and I expect him to find his way into the starting lineup. There are rumors of him being deployed on the right side, which might not be the worst thing. We’ve seen so little of him that I’m not sure how he would fair out there. His small-sample size numbers indicate a player that wants to be and should be on the ball a lot. I’m not sure that happens on the outside. Plus, I do believe Lattanzio values pace from wingers. I honestly don’t know if Nuno has that kind of pace; I know Vargas and Gaines do.
In goal, I expect to see Sisniega. I know there has been a “competition” between him and Marks, but the fact that Sisniega was the one to start games last year tells me he has the leg up in this. Plus, he has the size of a real goalkeeper.
The real issues come in the backline. Barring a setback in health, our star boy Malanda should start alongside Nathan Byrne. The left side is where there are a huge amount of question marks to be found.
It seems more and more likely that Harrison Afful will start at LB. It’s not a prospect that excites me. Derrick Jones has seen a lot of time at CB during the preseason, so there’s a chance he starts there for the opener. Personally, I’d much prefer us to throw Tuiloma into the lineup. He’s 27, has been in the league for 5 years, has 57 appearances for Portland over the past 2 years, and should be able to immediately play. We gave up a decent amount for him, so the plan can’t be for him to back up a midfielder pretending to be a CB.
At left back, Sobociński has gotten some time there this preseason. I don’t expect that to happen for this first game, nor do I expect our #1 overall pick, Diop, to play, but I’d prefer either option over Afful. Amazingly, I’d even prefer…gulp…Joseph Mora over Afful.
When Charlotte made their summer signings, I was of the opinion that the least likely to provide a meaningful impact for us in 2022 was going to be Adilson Malanda. A 20-year-old CB coming from Ligue 2. Nah, he was going to ride the bench. I figured Nuno Santos would immediately play and Nathan Byrne would take over the RB spot. I was…wrong.
Unhappily, Guzman Corujo went down with injury in August. Initially, this thrust Jan Sobociński into the starting lineup, though his own injury woes would force him out. It then fell to the young Malanda to pair with Anton Walkes.
As a quick aside: Jan has been a forgotten man when it comes to this backline. Not even 24, he showed real flashes in his time on the pitch last year. Multiple injuries really derailed his season, but if he can shake the injury bug, I believe there is a real player in there.
I don’t think Walkes’ veteran presence should be overlooked when it comes to Malanda’s successful run of form. Malanda’s own ability carried him through his first games in MLS, but Walkes was a steadying presence for him.
Editor’s note: This post was written before Walkes’ death and already included this reference to Walkes and his veteran leadership. These were Josh’s thoughts before his passing and it feels even more appropriate to retain them in the postnow.
It was and continues to be difficult not to be incredibly excited about Malanda’s potential. I’m very much a cautious individual when it comes to young players. While I prefer a talented young player over an aging vet (see: Jóźwiak vs. Reyna), I hesitate to believe in good performances too quickly. Young players tend to go through rough patches. The highs can be great but the lows can be as well.
Malanda will enter the 2023 MLS season as a 21-year-old CB with 6 games (in MLS) to his name. That is it. It is very likely–and even expected–that he will have a run of poor performances. Very few CBs his age start consistently at clubs and fewer still do so at a consistently high level. The ones that do are the elite of the elite. In my time watching soccer, only a few jump immediately to my mind: Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, and William Saliba (yes, Justin, Logan and I will mention him at every opportunity). These are obviously different players in much tougher leagues than MLS. They are also probably better players than Malanda will ever be (we’re talking about one of the best CBs ever in Silva, a CB who has been a starter for Roma and PSG since he was 18 in Marquinhos, and the young player of the year in France last year who has been a standout on the league-leading Arsenal). That is not a knock on Malanda, as he seems to have the potential to be a top CB in MLS, if not force his way back to Europe.
When looking at CBs, there are a few things I look for, aside from the ability to tackle.
He needs to be at least 6’0″. Yes, I am a height snob when it comes to CBs. I want them to be bullies and command the penalty area.
He needs to be able to progress the ball out from the back. This comes in the form of passing, but also dribbling ability. I don’t need a CB to be Neymar on the ball, but he should have the technical ability and on-ball confidence to turn a defender from time to time or take the space when it is given.
He needs to be able to chip in 3-5 goals per year.
He needs the pace to be able to recover. A CB is never going to win a footrace with the likes of Gaines, Ruan, or some of the other quicker players in the league. However, he needs to have enough pace to match up with 80% of the forwards in a league and the wherewithal to manage his limitations against the quicker players.
How does Malanda stack up with these “requirements”?
Quick note: I will be using FBref stats and their scouting report. We should take the scouting report percentages with a HUGE grain of salt. Malanda has 6 games in MLS. It’s an incredibly small sample size, however, I think it’s still worthwhile to see how he is stacking up so far. I expect these numbers to change over a full season–some probably drastically.
Height
First, he’s listed at 6’1″ on Charlotte’s site (though he’s listed half an inch shorter on FBref). Having seen him in person, this seems about right. He’s only 165 lbs and looks it. He’s spindly and wiry, but that doesn’t seem to stop him from being physical in games. I would probably like to see him add about 10 pounds of muscle, but there’s a balance between him doing that and potentially losing some of his pace/quickness.
On-ball Ability
Malanda can pass. When he was first signed, there wasn’t much information out there for him. I found this video and what jumped out to me was his confidence to make a pass and run with the ball.
As with any YouTube highlight video, there aren’t bad plays in here–but his ability to be calm on the ball, go around a player, and make a pass are all evident.
Malanda’s passing ability is already evident, but I don’t think we’ve seen its full impact. This is probably due to Lattanzio. I don’t mean this in a disparaging way either. I imagine CL wanted to have Malanda focus on defending and leave the penetrative distribution to others. For a young player coming to a new league in a new country with a new language, this all makes sense.
On the season, Malanda attempted 376 total passes, good for 62.7 attempts per 90. That was good for 4th on the team behind Santos (71.7 passes attempted/90), Afful (71.5 passes attempted/90), and Fuchs (70.3 passes attempted/90). Technically, Hegardt led the team with 120 passes attempted/90 (!!!) but he had 0.2 90s, so it’s hard to really count him. Even Santos is a bit iffy to count with this, as he only had 1.8 90s. Regardless, the point is that even if Malanda wasn’t meant to be a focal point of distribution, he saw a lot of the ball.
Note: some of Charlotte’s struggles offensively can probably be traced to the fact that our defenders lead the team in passes attempted per 90. Hegardt and Santos, as previously mentioned, are dubious to include in these rankings due to their overall lack of playing time. Even if you do include them, though, 9 of our top 11 players in this category were defenders. If you exclude them, Bronico is the only non-defender to break the top 10 (51.3 passes attempted/90). That is problematic and something that has to be changed in the coming season. It’s also one of the reasons I view Santos as such an important player moving forward. It’s a very small sample size, but those 71.7 passes attempted/90 are much needed.Westwood, if healthy, should also help.
Of his 376 passes, Malanda completed 326 of them (54.3 completed passes/90) at an 86.7% clip. Breaking it down even further, most of his passing came in the medium range (194 completed of 207 attempted, 93.7% completion percentage). He completed 93 of 97 short passes (95.9%). Where I’m most excited to see him evolve is in his long passing; he only attempted 63 long passes last year, completing 37 of them (58.7%). In the video above, there were numerous times when he would hit a long diagonal ball to the wing. That’s something I would like to see from him more this year.
Malanda Passing Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com
Malanda Passing Types vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com
For a then-20-year-old, this is outstanding. Compared with his central defender peers, Malanda is already a league leader in passing. His one area of improvement needs to be with key passes, but, again, he was 20! We can nitpick a few areas if we want, but when there is this much green, you just enjoy it (while also continuing to acknowledge the all-important small sample size).
Goal Contribution
Goals are never the most important stat for a CB, but the very best teams always seem to have a CB who chips in some goals. Malanda has never actually scored a goal in his professional career and has only 1 assist (last year for Charlotte). Thus, there’s nothing in his history that necessarily leads you to believe that he could contribute 3-5 goals per season. Yet, I think he will and it’s mostly due to one thing: his ability to time runs and jumps.
Logan was one of the first people I heard mention this, but Malanda has already shown an ability to get himself into good positions from corners. He crashes down into the box.
Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22
Malanda doesn’t score this, but his run and jump from deep are so well-timed. It causes confusion in the box, which allows Świderski to finish off the chance.
Charlotte vs. NYCFC, 9/10/22
This second one deserved a goal. It’s a fantastic ball in from Vargas and, again, Malanda’s run and jump are impeccable.
Of course, I would be remiss not to mention that the numbers don’t necessarily bear out his aerial ability. In fact, they show the opposite.
Malanda Miscellaneous Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com
Yikes. Those numbers are not great and show a definite area of improvement. I predict–and am confident that–further game experience will improve these numbers.
Pace
Malanda has shown the ability to recover and provide cover for teammates. In the Chicago game, the second goal comes from a good move by Chicago and poor decision-making by Malanda’s veteran teammates, Walkes and Afful.
Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22
When the ball is played, Malanda is on the halfway line and a few good yards behind the fullback making a run. He covers the ground exceptionally well, forcing #2 on Chicago to cut back. Unfortunately, no one but Malanda and Byrne has tracked back well on this play and Chicago gets a goal.
This next angle shows it even better.
Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22
In general, you don’t want a CB to have to go full-bore, as that usually means a mistake has been made somewhere else. It will happen, though, and it’s good to know that Malanda has the ability to catch up.
With only 6 games under his belt at the MLS level–and only 40 total for his career–it’s far too soon to say exactly what Adilson Malanda is. This discussion has also largely ignored his tackling ability, so let’s take a look.
Malanda Defensive Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com
There is clearly room for improvement. His relative lack of errors is encouraging, as is his ability against dribblers. Of course, that ability hasn’t been extensively tested. FBref has him in only 3 duels vs. dribblers. While his 100% success rate in these situations is good (you certainly want him at 100% and not 0%), there’s not a big enough sample to say that it will be predictive of his future ability.
It should be noted that defensive stats are notoriously fickle and, of all the advanced stats, the least fleshed out, in my opinion. That is not to excuse these numbers; Malanda will need to improve them if he is to reach the heights the beginning of his Charlotte career has hinted at. To be a true defensive stopper, you will want him to get stuck in a bit more and have success while doing it. With that said, I don’t think these numbers need to be overly concerning for us just yet due to the small sample and age.
It’s hard not to dream about Malanda’s future. It does look that bright. Charlotte’s first overall pick, Diop, also shows some of these same traits (ball carrying, passing, physical build). Even Jan fits in this mold. It seems Charlotte has a CB prototype in mind.
For the upcoming year, all Charlotte fans should be excited for a Malanda-Corujo pairing, provided Corujo comes back healthy. This is not a given; ACLs, while common, are not easy injuries to come back from. They take time and there are often setbacks (usually in the form of muscular strains). Don’t be surprised if it takes a few months to see the pre-injury Corujo. It could even take most of next year.
Once Corujo does get back, this pairing should really complement each other. I’ve long said that Corujo’s biggest weakness was his lack of distribution. This deficit should be covered by Malanda’s on-ball ability.
Malanda, meanwhile, is still learning how to tackle and defend at a high level. Corujo is an aggressive defender, which I know worries some. While his aggressiveness can cause issues, he is a really good tackler and defensive stopper (91st percentile in tackles and tackles won, 96th percentile in tackles in the defensive 3rd, 88th percentile in dribbles contested, 91st percentile in tackles plus clearances). His aggressiveness can get him caught out at times, but, again, I think Malanda’s pace and more balanced defending can help cover for that.
Center-back pairings often come down more to chemistry than talent. Yes, ability is important, but unless you have a generational talent (in which case, he’s not at Charlotte), you need to balance those abilities. I’m very optimistic about Malanda and Corujo doing just that. Even more than that, though, I’m confident in Malanda’s ability, regardless of the partner.
Editor’s note: this post was written, and set to be published, right before the tragic death of Anton Walkes. It was held back out of respect for him, his family, his friends, his teammates, and all those, including us at The Crown Cast, who mourn his passing. Rest in peace, Anton.
As Charlotte continue their recruitment for the 2023 MLS Season, they announced their biggest signing in name since the transfer of now coach Christian Fuchs by signing Premier League veteran Ashley Westwood from Burnley.
Unlike most of Charlotte’s big moves in their short history, this move was met with more skepticism than many within the club were probably anticipating. Fans raised concerns about the profile of the player. The combination of his age (Westwood will turn 33 early in April) and the fact that he is coming off a major injury (suffered towards the end of the 2021/22 Premier League season) have left people wondering how immediate of a contribution he can make under these circumstances.
Though these concerns are legitimate–and I’m sure will have been well-considered by the recruitment-team–there can be no doubt about the quality of player they are signing and what he could bring to Charlotte’s midfield.
Should he make a full recovery from what was a very serious injury, there are plenty of traits Charlotte fans can look forward to.
The Charlotte Setup
It is unclear what system Head Coach Christian Lattanzio will implement for this season, and his changing of formation throughout last season provides no clear answer.
It seems most likely (based on the systems most commonly used and the squad profile) that Charlotte will play some form of a 4-1-4-1, 4-3-3, or a 4-2-3-1, with the latter being Lattanzio’s ideal set up, at least in my mind. In that system, a likely midfield for that system would be:
Swiderski in the 10 role is likely to continue given his form their last season, paired with the acquisition of Enzo Copetti as a 9. The main question is likely to be who Westwood’s midfield partner will be between Bronico or Jones. I have given Bronico the nod here, but either player would be a good fit next to Westwood, who has played in a midfield 2 beside a variety of players in his career.
Westwood’s Midfield Role
This is a tough one to answer. Because of Westwood’s aforementioned experience of performing different roles in a midfield pair, combined with the fact both Bronico and Jones themselves have played as a 6 and an 8, respectively, we may only get real clarity on how the team will look to allocate those roles once pre-season begins.
Having said that, Westwood himself sees the qualities he should be bringing to the side very clearly, as he described during his media availability on Tuesday.
Regarding his role on the pitch, Westwood said it would be similar to what he did at Burnley – a more box-to-box, creative role.
Advancing a little more forward and playmaking from the midfield.
Whether this was based on conversations between himself and Lattanzio, or just a candid answer of how he ideally sees his game is unclear, but this “playmaking box-to-box midfield” role could certainly be facilitated by either Bronico or Jones playing with him in a deeper ‘6’ role.
Let’s break down this role further, in his own words:
Playmaking
For regular watchers of the Premier League, they will know “playmaking” and “Burnley” aren’t exactly words that go hand in hand. Under Sean Dyche, they implemented an old-school 4-4-2 “playing the percentages” style based on being incredibly direct with long-distance passing and very aggressive physically throughout the centre of the pitch.
This obviously doesn’t lend itself to much creativity from the midfield pair, however, in Westwood’s case he was still able to find moments where he could show his talent by providing goal-scoring opportunities in a way that didn’t compromise Dyche’s style.
For those familiar with Westwood’s game, him possessing this quality from open play will come as no surprise. He is also a highly productive corner-taker.
In an area of the game that is becoming less and less directly effective, Westwood was able to still bring value to it, pairing a great ball-striking ability with the size advantage Burnley was able to boast over most sides.
Westwood has an incredible ability to be precise with delivering the ball into an area 3-6 yards from goal, as well as beyond the middle of the box. He does so with a high-arcing strike that ensures the ball cannot be defended by any of the players before that area of the box.
Whilst these may not be the conventional areas of “playmaking” that we would associate with say, a Karol Swiderski, this consistency of production still cannot be discounted – especially for a team that was 24th in xAG (expected assisted goals) in MLS last season.
Box-to-Box
When analyzing Westwood as a box-to-box player, you almost have to separate it into two categories.
He has impressive ball carrying in transition to, quite literally, take a team from a defensive situation to a good goalscoring opportunity
He is also able to win the ball in the middle portion of the field, followed by a driving run into the opposition third to create space for others and ultimately create opportunities for himself.
Whichever side of the description you wish to choose, it is clear that Westwood backs up the notion that he is a highly active midfield player who is not only able to be productive defensively through his work rate but also use it to contribute in attack.
Statistically, Westwood stacks up as one of the highest-ranking players in terms of distance covered, finishing as high as 7th in the entire Premier League in distance covered over the full 2019/2020 season.
Though we likely won’t see Westwood amongst the top 10 in distance covered in MLS due to Lattanzio’s much more possession-based style, it will still be just as vital that he’s able to deal comfortably with covering large areas of the field.
As well as being more possession-based, Lattanzio’s style has put an emphasis on width when playing in 4-2-3-1. With the wingers staying wide, naturally, this will create more space for the central midfielders to have to account for, a task I believe Westwood should be firmly up for.
Experience
This is one last area is important to touch on with regard to the Ashley Westwood acquisition.
With Christian Fuchs’ retirement and Harrison Afful re-signing on terms that should see his playing time take a dip, Charlotte was at risk of losing a lot of experience on the field. Lack of experience is hard to quantify but is generally accepted to be very important.
Not only does Westwood serve as a direct replacement to Fuchs as a veteran with a decade’s experience in top-flight European football, but by signing him at age 32 (compared to Fuchs playing the majority of last season at age 36), the club will hope that Westwood will have plenty of good years left to contribute. He should be able to set the tone and the culture as a leader of the players.
All things being considered, this is a really smart signing for both on and off-the-field contributions. I myself am excited to watch him in this constantly improving squad.
Ah, Kamil Jóźwiak. It feels like Charlotte fans either love him or hate him. A once-hyped European talent who had a really good Euro 2020, his time at Derby took some shine off of his promise. Further, having come to Charlotte as a DP, many looked at him to have an immediate impact on the team.
He did not.
As I covered in my preview of him last year (one of my first posts at my old Banks, Beer, and Soccer location), there were a number of factors that gave me pause about Jóźwiak, and I summed it up as such:
At the end of the day, is this transfer worth it? Yes. This squad still lacks depth and it lacks talent. Jóźwiak gives that. While I do have concerns about the profile and his inability so far to consistently produce, he is still only 23.
If we view his previous couple of seasons as heavily impacted by a global pandemic and a disastrously run club–both of which seem likely–then maybe we should view him more as the player coming off of his last season at Lech and Euro 2020. In doing that, it is hard not to be excited.
I still highly recommend anyone who didn’t check that article out do so, as it gives some context to why Derby (and Charlotte) wanted him (also, it’s one of my first, so go easy on me!). To summarize, though, his time in Poland as a young player was very exciting and promising.
That leads us to Jóźwiak with Charlotte. Kamil ended his season with zero goals and 3 assists, off of 1.7 xG and 2.7 xGA. His passing wasn’t awe-inspiring: 73.8% total completion percentage, 87.4% (215/246) on short passing, 73.0% (103/141) on medium passing, and 43.6% (17/39) on long passing. He averaged 3.52 crosses per 90 (45 total). So far this is the profile of a bust, especially for a DP.
Let’s make a quick aside and talk about that DP label, too, shall we? I’ve made this point a number of times (probably too many): it’s not Kamil’s fault that he is a DP. Has he produced at the level that you want from someone who is taking that spot and earning that level of money? Absolutely not. Even the most ardent Jóźwiak supports (and I’m probably among them) wouldn’t say he has. There are 2 things I will say about this, though.
First, he didn’t give himself that label or title. If you have issues with him being a DP–and these issues are valid–blame the FO, not Kamil. Professional athletes have a very short time to make money, so I never begrudge them the opportunity to make it. Further, it’s not our (i.e., the fan’s) money–it’s a (usually) billionaire owner’s money. Why are we taking the billionaire’s side in this debate?
Second, he won’t (or shouldn’t) be a DP for much longer. There was always the option of buying him down and, coupled with the cap going up, he should be bought down. As such, I encourage all to try to evaluate Jóźwiak as a player and not a DP. The question isn’t, is he worth the money? Rather, it’s can he help Charlotte FC compete, win, and challenge for a title?
Kamil appeared in 19 matches for Charlotte FC last year, making 13 starts. He played for 1,151 minutes, or just under 13 90s (12.8 to be exact). FBref has a handy feature where it breaks down where a player played positionally on a per game basis. I’m sure it’s not perfect, however, it can give us some idea of where Jóźwiak was deployed.
Kamil made his debut on 4/30 against Orlando City and came on as a “forward.” He started the next game (5/7 against Inter Miami) as a left midfielder. In his next 9 appearances, Kamil was deployed on the right handside, listed as a right midfielder or even right back. There is the 5/29 game against Seattle where he appears to have played on the left in addition to the right, but for the most part his deployment is consistently on the right side of the pitch during this part of the season.
Starting with the 8/17 game against NYCFC, Kamil ends the season as our starting left midfielder/winger. He is listed as a “LM,RM” for the home match against NYCFC on 9/10, but the difference is clear: he is no longer a right sided player.
In the end, Kamil has two games labeled as a “forward,” 8 games where he’s being deployed on the right, and 8 games where he’s being deployed on the left. I’m here to tell you, right-side Kamil is useless; left-side Kamil shows real promise.
If we look at Kamil’s first 11 appearances for the club (again, the time when he is mostly a right-sided player), he contributes 0 goals and 0 assists on 1.1 xG and 0.4 xGA. There’s a further caveat to this, though!
Of that 1.1 xG, over half of it (0.6 xG to be specific) comes in one game: 7/3 against Houston. He also had 0.1 xGA in that game. Removing that one game and we have 0.5 xG and 0.3 xGA in 10 appearances. Oof.
In his final 8 appearances–again, from the left–Jóźwiak records 0 goals, but 3 assists (!) off of 0.6 xG and 2.3 (!!!!!!) xGA. Ok, I’m getting a bit carried away with the exclamation points because you still want to see more production, but the point is clear: on the left, Kamil is much more dangerous.
This trend appears in other statistics as well. When looking at Shot-Creating Actions (SCAs) and Goal-Creating Actions (GCAs), Left-Sided Kamil is much better than Right-Sided Kamil. He produced 44 SCAs on the year and 4 GCAs on the year. In his first 11 appearances, he created 21 SCAs and just 1 GCA. In his final 8 appearances, he created 23 SCAs and 3 GCAs. Still not great production, but a definite improvement.
When looking at his passing, he also improves it slightly from the left side: 74.66% compared with 72.84%.
Maybe you’re someone who doesn’t believe in the “stats” and goes by the “eye test.” Well, SofaScore’s rating shows the same type of improvement. Jóźwiak’s average rating for his first 11 games was 6.67, with a high of 7.1 and a low of 6.3. In his final 8 appearances, he had an average rating of 6.96 with a a high of 7.5 and a low of 5.9. That 5.9 was against RBNY on the last weekend when there was nothing to play for and the entire team looked like it would’ve preferred to be anywhere but in New Jersey (I mean, who could blame them, amirite?).
Would you look at that. From the right, Kamil is rarely getting himself into dangerous positions. He’s confined to the touchline and his most consistent touching of the ball is near the halfway line and between the halfway line and penalty box. Importantly, though, it’s not really in the penalty box.
Now look at the left. It’s night and day, really. He’s still near the touchline, but he’s also picking up positions much more centrally. He’s further up the pitch and instead of being clustered in the middle of it, he’s operating near and around the box.
The answer for this change appears to be pretty simple, too. Kamil is right-footed. When deployed on the right, he’s forced to operate like an old-school, traditional winger, where the goal is to drive by players wide, get to the end-line, and make crosses. Think of the way Gaines likes to operate. On the left, though, Kamil is able to act as more of an inverted winger who can take people wide, but will drift inside onto his favored foot.
Now it should be noted that his time at Euro 2020 saw him exclusively operating from the right-hand side and his time with Derby also saw him more commonly on the right. Of course, if we view his time at Derby as a disappointment, we must also acknowledge that it might be because he was not playing where he should be (at least in my estimation). Unfortunately, SofaScore doesn’t have heatmaps for his time in the Polish league.
The other point of discussion for Kamil has often been who should be deployed on the left instead of him. This past year there were probably 3 main candidates for this role: Ben Bender, Andre Shinyashiki, and Yordy Reyna. While all 3 can play as a left-sided midfielder, I don’t believe all can play there in Christian Lattanzio’s system.
First, I’m of the opinion Bender is better when he is deployed more centrally, either as one of a pair of 8s or as a 10. When he is able to take up central positions and then drift into wide spaces (and vice versa), he is much more effective.
Second, Shinyashiki’s scoring ability is good, but it’s clear that Lattanzio, for better or worse, doesn’t see him as a wide player. With how Charlotte operated under CL, this is not necessarily surprising or illogical. Lattanzio prefers quicker wide players who can take players on (think Reyna, Jóźwiak, Gaines, Vargas). Shinyashiki is good, but what he is not is a pacey, tricky winger. The same can be said for Bender.
Thus, we’re really left with Reyna as Jóźwiak’s primary competition for the left side (with reports that his time is over with the club, it’s maybe a bit disingenuous to even include him here). For now, I’m going to ignore Justin’s favorite talking point that Vargas is probably also better on the left. I probably agree with him on this point, but Vargas is so young and has so little data that I don’t think it makes sense to include him in this current discussion (especially since CL insisted he be played on the right this past season).
Anyone who has followed Banks, Beer, and Soccer or The Crown Cast since I’ve joined will know that I am not a Reyna fan. In the proper setup, Reyna can be a good piece, but he’s a moments player who drifts in and out of games. In my opinion, he is most often out of games. He doesn’t run, rarely puts in any defensive effort, and struggles with consistency.
When it comes to Reyna, I am mostly confused to how he became such a fan favorite. People often point to his trickiness and ability to score and/or create scoring opportunities as reasons to why he should be in the side. This supposed ability is simply not there, at least on a consistent basis.
Reyna ended the season with 3 goals and 3 assists. But, Josh, that’s 3 more goals than Jóźwiak! He’s 300% the goalscorer Jóźwiak is! This is true. But what is also true is that those 3 goals came in two games, both of which Charlotte lost. He scored two wonderful goals against Inter Miami and a header versus Chicago in the first minute. What did he do after that in that game?
I will give Reyna his due on his assists. Each of them are lovely balls that are perfectly placed. The ones against Nashville and Columbus are especially beautiful.
Reyna assist versus Nashville, 7/9/22
Reyna assist versus Columbus, 10/5/22
Reyna appeared in 19 games for Charlotte (handy for the Jóźwiak comparison!) and started 10. He totaled 845 minutes and was just under 10 90s (9.4 to be specific). He finished the season with 2.2 xG and 2.2 xGA. So more xG, but less xGA.
He created 36 SCAs and 7 GCAs, which corresponds well to his xG and xGA compared to Kamil (i.e., he creates more goal-scoring chances, but fewer shooting chances). His passing was slightly better percentage-wise than Kamils: 74.9% on the season, 87.1% (115/132) for short passing, 79.4% (81/102) for medium passing, and 55.4% (31/56) for long passing. He put in 4.26 crosses per 90 (40 total).
So far, we honestly have pretty similar players when looking at these 2 when it comes to goalscoring and assisting. What separates Reyna in the minds of many fans, though, is his ability to take people on with the dribble. This isn’t untrue, but this ability is blown way out of proportion. Let’s look at Jóźwiak, Reyna, and Gaines’ possession numbers. I’ve included Gaines as kind of a control player.
Player Name
Successful Dribbles (per 90)
Attempted Dribbles (per 90)
Successful Dribble Percentage
Miscontrols (per 90)
Dispossessed (per 90)
Kamil Jóźwiak
17 (1.33)
43 (3.36)
39.5%
27 (2.11)
15 (1.17)
Yordy Reyna
8 (0.85)
36 (3.83)
22.2%
24 (2.55)
23 (2.45)
McKinze Gaines
17 (1.43)
46 (3.87)
37.0%
33 (2.77)
22 (1.85)
Reyna completed the fewest dribbles, had the lowest successful percentage, and had the most dispossessions. On a per 90 basis, it’s even worse for him. He’s far and away the least successful at dribbles even though he’s attempting them almost as much as Gaines. While Gaines leads this trio in miscontrols per 90, Reyna is far and away the most likely to get dispossessed.
Kamil comes out looking really good in this comparison. He’s the most successful of this trio in terms of percentage, almost as good as Gaines on a per 90 basis, but has far fewer miscontrols and dispossessions on a per 90 basis. Yet I would wager that if you polled 100 Charlotte fans, most would say Reyna is the better dribbler of the two (if not on the entire team).
Reyna doesn’t have a good history of goal contribution to fall back on, especially in recent times. His best season his probably his age 20 season, when he was with Grödig in the Austrian Bundesliga. That season (2014-15), he had 11 goals and 5 assists. His best MLS season is probably 2018 with Vancouver when he was 24. He recorded 6 goals and 9 assists that season. The following season for Vancouver, Reyna had 7 goals and 1 assists. Since that year–3 seasons, 50 appearances, 25 starts, and 2,419 minutes of game time–Reyna has a total of 8 goals and 5 assists. Of course, Reyna’s lack of production is matched, if not surpassed, by Jóźwiak’s. Over the past 3 seasons, Jóźwiak has made 77 appearances, 56 starts, and has 4,795 minutes of game time with just 1 goal and 6 assists to show for it.
So why do I believe in Jóźwiak rather than Reyna? Simply put, age. Jóźwiak is currently 24 while Reyna is 29. We absolutely know what Reyna is while there’s a world where Jóźwiak gets back to his pre-Derby days. For reference, with Lech Poznań, Jóźwiak had 15 goals and 8 assists over 104 appearances (73 starts) and 6,621 minutes of game time. This was during his age 17-22 seasons! I’ll always take younger, talented player over an aging veteran when the production is similar.
Finally, I’ve said it before, but a young player moving countries, learning a new culture and language, at a horribly run club during a global pandemic is not a good gauge of ability. Jóźwiak spent two wasted seasons in England. I won’t assert that his lack of production is 100% the result of these factors, but I don’t think they can be dismissed and shouldn’t be minimized.
I have no idea if Jóźwiak can find the kind of form he had with Lech Poznań again, but the latter half of last season showed there is a useful and talented player in there who is capable of doing so. It’s up to CL and co. to unlock that potential consistently.
