When you’re in doubt, it seems that Charlotte is going to get a draw. Match 8 against Colorado Rapids was at home at the Bank and we managed to fumble the 3 points at the very end.
Coach Larranzio made a couple of changes following the 3-1 loss against Real Salt Lake. Joseph Mora made his second start of the season over Jaylin Lindsey in the back line, as Harrison Afful moved to the right-back. Kerwin Varagas was on his normal left-wing side of the pitch while Karol Świderski was pushed back into the midfield. Lastly, Brand Bronico got the start over Ben Bender in the day’s encounter.
There were no changes in the formation with Coach Larranzio sticking with his normal 4-3-3:
The first half for Charlotte was a very typical first half, as Charlotte owned the possession stats (58% to 42%) and completed more accurate passes (196 to the Rapids’ 116). Charlotte was be able to get more shots (9 to 6) but other than that it was a pretty normal 0-0 half for this club.
The second half was a tad bit different for Charlotte. Charlotte got beat from a statistical standpoint, with the possession going to Rapids (53% to 47%). While Charlotte was able to get more total shots (8 to 7), Rapids would get more shots on goal (6 to 3).
The Rapids finally got their breakthrough through the buildup between Yapi, Rubio, and Nicholson. Nicholson took on his defender and split the defense with a ball in the middle towards Max, who would put it away in the back of the net in the 53rd minute.
Charlotte’s breakthrough in the match would come from Afful. Afful gave the ball up to Świderski, who then laid the ball off at the top of the box for Vargas. Vargas was able to slot one into the bottom right corner to bring the game level at 1-1.
Charlotte’s next goal would come from our Polish duo. Świderski crossed the ball from the edge of the box for fellow Pole Jóźwiak, who leaped over his defender to head it in, putting Charlotte up in the 64th Minute of the match.
Just when you think Charlotte had 3 points secured. in the 91st minute, Colorado’s Michael Barrios had an open net to equalize. George Marks rushed out of his goal in what appeared to be a routine stop, but just failed to hold on to the ball.
The match ended in a 2-2 draw.
Takeaways
I don’t think there’s much to be said this week. We were unlucky to get a result that wasn’t in our favor. For 26 minutes we were able to hold them off and all it took was a goalkeeper error for them to equalize. That’s football for you, though, and all it takes is one opportunity for a team to change the result.
Coach Larranzio needs the team to get into that extra gear and get goals in bunches more often, as they did between the first and second goals. It can show dominance in the match.
Charlotte needs to be able to adjust between being able to play counter-attacking and possession-based football. Possession is great, but it hasn’t gotten us many positive results and there is a need to be able to tweak the philosophy. This includes just sitting there, building off of the counter, and letting the ball work for you.
The defense has improved, or at least it did in this matchup. I would like for them not to ball-watch so often. They should be scanning their zones better and communicating more with each other. The first goal was conceded because there was no communication between the defenders, which left gaps for our players to cover and spaces for the Rapids to exploit. It led to a simple cross and tap in.
There’s an interesting–if unsurprising–debate happening online right now about who should be playing for this club currently. Two trends I see:
Enzo can’t play up top alone.
Sobociński should be getting time over Tuiloma.
Both of these ideas confuse me.
First, this team hasn’t scored goals, yet Enzo has 2. Second, and a strong small sample size warning applies here, he’s played about how he should be expected to play. He was a Rios replacement who was supposed to bring the same aspects to the team that Rios did, but better. Well, I’d argue he’s probably meeting that. Here are some indicators for him when compared to other MLS forwards for 2023:
He’s in the 95th percentile for Average Shot Distance, meaning, he’s getting into excellent positions when he shoots.
He’s in the 70th percentile for Shots on Target % and Goals/Shots. He’s only in the 5th percentile for Shots Total, but I don’t think we can blame him for the dysfunction of our attack.
He’s in the 75th percentile for Progressive Passes Received, meaning, he’s consistently making himself available for forward passes from teammates.
He’s in the 75th percentile for Goals-xG, which means he’s outperforming his xG (which is a good thing considering this team’s struggles on the offensive side of the ball).
Are there areas where I’d like to see him improve? Sure. But Enzo is in the mold of a traditional striker. He’s also one that appears to be better in a more transition-based side, whereas CL wants possession.
Enzo hasn’t been perfect, but the frustration with him seems to come from his supposed “antics” (something I disagree with). This subjective anger at “antics” has bled into and created this idea of a “performance” issue. I really am not seeing that. To me he’s often been isolated up top, yet runs his a** off, holds up the ball decently, and seems to take chances when they infrequently come.
The Sobo over Tuiloma argument is even weirder to me. We have allowed a ton of goals this year and we have had numerous errors from defenders that have led to it (Tuiloma’s own goal and his bad back pass, Malanda’s bad back pass, Byrne’s bad back pass). We’ve allowed 4 goals, though. Those defensive errors are important, but they’re not the main reason that we’re allowing so many goals. It’s a team issue.
There is consistently loads of space between lines for opponents to exploit, both in terms of passing and positioning. Charlotte’s backline often has multiple attackers running at it, seemingly unopposed by anyone in the midfield. Our midfield has been porous and it’s coupled with CL’s usage of fullbacks, which allows space in behind. I believe in Sobo’s talent, but he’s not making a meaningful difference in this squad right now. We’re not talking prime van Dijk here. Frankly, I don’t believe he’s better than Tuiloma right now and I don’t think it’s particularly close.
To my eyes, Sobociński has struggled with the Legacy. How is that going to get better at the MLS-level? Sobo is talked about as if he’s this exceedingly young CB. He’s young at only 24, but at 24 Tuiloma was in his 2nd season with Portland and had made 37 total appearances with 30 starts. He made 57 appearances and 43 starts for Portland over the next 2 seasons. Sobociński has made 9 career MLS appearances with just 3 starts.
Yet, Sobo is talked about as if he must be played due to some great potential talent. I would argue Tuiloma is more talented, plus has MLS experience.
In my opinion, the real reason that people are calling for Tuiloma to be replaced has to do with:
We’ve shipped a ton of goals this season, so the correlation equals causation fallacy comes into play and Tuiloma is taking that blame.
His 2 mistakes led directly to goals.
Regarding those 2 errors, as I honestly think that’s what colors the opinion of most people about Tuiloma. Those errors should not be dismissed, but, again, I implore you to look at his process over the results. He did everything right in terms of reading the game and positioning in both of those goals; he failed at the end with his execution. That is a problem! You need a defender that will reliably make the play in the big moments. Determining whether a player is reliable requires more than 6 games. The fact that he is closing in on 100 career MLS starts is more important to me right now than his 6 just with Charlotte.
The bottom line is we’re close to the point of “play the kids” but we’re not there yet. Inter Miami started last year with 7 points through their first 7 games (a draw, 4 consecutive losses, and then 2 wins). We are behind that pace, but not in an inconceivable way. Are we likely to make the playoffs based on current form and history? No. But it’s not quite time to throw in the towel.
Finally, I’m going to continue saying this until I’m blue in the face: Christian Lattanzio is NOT going to play a 4-4-2 or any other variation that puts 2 at the top. The only way this becomes a realistic possibility is if we actually see him do it, and we’ve never seen it. Please, I’m begging Charlotte fans to stop having this conversation. It’s tiring and pointless.
Team
Possession
Points (Standings)
WhoScored Team Rating (SofaScore Team Rating)
Charlotte FC
56.9%
5 (14th in the East)
6.50 (6.76)
Colorado Rapids
49.9%
6 (11th in the West)
6.53 (6.80)
Team
Shots per game
Shots on target per game
Goals for (xG)
Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC
10.43
3.43
7 (7.0)
14 (10.7)
Colorado Rapids
11.43
3.29
3 (8.5)
8 (10.1)
On the surface, Colorado seems like a poor offensive team, having only scored 3 goals. However, Colorado’s massive underperformance on goals versus their xG has me worried. I’m not saying they are a juggernaut of an offensive that has had severe bad luck, but a gap between actual goals and xG leads me to believe they’ll revert to the mean shortly.
Charlotte, meanwhile, continues to rack up possession numbers that lead to nothing. We continue to be second in the league behind only LA Galaxy in this category.
Lineup and Roster Breakdown
COL at ATX, 3/25
COL vs. LAFC, 4/1
COL at SKC, 4/8
Colorado is sound defensively. They got hammered in the opening game at Seattle by a score of 4-0, but since then haven’t allowed more than 2 goals in a game. In fact, of their 7 games, they’ve allowed 1 goal or fewer 5 times, including 2 shutouts (one over LAFC, which is an impressive feat).
That defensive stability comes from the fact that they’ve started the same goalkeeper (William Yarbrough) and mostly the same 3 CBs–Lalas Abubakar, Andreas Maxsø, and Danny Wilson–the entire season. Abubakar and Maxsø have started all 7 games, while Wilson has appeared in 6 and started 5, including the last 3.
Wingbacks Keegan Rosenberry and Sam Nicholson have both started 6 games, with Nicholson appearing in all 7. Midfielder Connor Ronan has also started all 7 games.
Over the past 3 games, the front 3 has also been relatively unchanged with Jonathan Lewis and Max starting all 3 of the previous games and Diego Rubio starting 2/3.
Other players like Cole Bassett (5 starts), Darren Yapi (6 apps, 4 starts), Bryan Acosta (4 starts), and Michael Barrios (7 apps, 3 starts) have all seen consistent playing time. In all, this is a team that has a pretty clearly defined starting 11, where the most changes come in the attack. It could explain their underperformance on goals but also helps explain their defensive stoutness.
Like Real Salt Lake who we just saw, Colorado only has 1 Designated Player: Maxsø
Injury
According to the MLS Availability Report, the Rapids were missing 2 players last week: defender Moise Bombito (left knee) and midfielder Jack Price (Achilles). Price will be a big miss for Colorado. The veteran, who also serves as Colorado’s captain, tore his Achilles on 3/20/23, so he’ll miss the entire season.
Midfielders Cole Bassett (left hamstring) and Braian Galvan (groin) were listed as questionable and neither made the bench.
Of note, Maxsø was forced off last week due to an injury. It’s unclear what his status for our matchup is. He would be a miss for them.
Diego Rubio (Forward, CAM)
Rubio began the year injured, which led to him missing the first few games. He’s recently come back into the side, appearing in 3 games and starting 2. He has one of Colorado’s 3 goals.
Rubio is coming off a career year last year. He’s in his 5th season with Colorado and had 16 goals (4 PKs) and 5 assists last year in 30 appearances (28 starts). This was double the number of goals he had over the previous 2 seasons (8 goals in 42 appearances over the 2020 and 2021 seasons). His first season with Colorado saw him get 11 goals and 4 assists in 26 appearances.
So who is he? To be honest, I’m not sure. Part of this is: how do you define him positionally? Colorado lists him as a forward and FBref has him as a “FW, MF.” In 2021, his percentiles are only compared to other MLS forwards, but in 2022, you can compare him to forwards, CAMs/wingers, or midfielders.
In terms of goalscoring, if he’s a forward, those 2 years (2020, 2021) are concerning. If he’s a CAM, they’re fine. If he’s a forward, last year was good! If he’s a CAM, last year was amazing! His heatmaps don’t help.
Rubio 2023 heatmap
Rubio 2022 heatmap
These are definitely not the maps of a forward (and his maps are pretty consistent throughout his years). I’m inclined to view him as a CAM, which makes his goal returns excellent, even in the “down” years.
As a CAM, he’s not a great passer. Compared with the “Men’s Next 8” CAMs, his passing is average. He is decent in long passing (70th percentile for long pass completion %) and he’s trying ambitious passes (77th percentile for passes into the final third, 84th percentile for passes into the penalty area, and 79th percentile for progressive passes). And this leads to him shining with goal and shot creation.
Rubio SCA/GCA vs. CAMs/wingers over the last 365 days in Men’s Next 8 Competitions.
These aren’t the best we’ve ever seen, but they do show a player that will consistently cause issues for defenders.
Darren Yapi (Forward)
I’m not sure we should expect Yapi to start, but he’s an interesting and talented young player. He has made 6 appearances this year with 4 starts but hasn’t started a game since 3/18.
Yapi is only 18 and last year only got into 11 games (1 start). He didn’t have a goal or an assist. This year, he’s only gotten 1 assist. Normally, this wouldn’t read like that interesting of a player, however, I think he is for two reasons. First, I always enjoy young players who break into teams, even if it is limited minutes. Second, in all his appearances last year he had 1.9 90s. So far this year, he’s already at 4.6 90s, meaning, Colorado clearly see him as ready to be part of the first team in a major way.
Further, Colorado has only scored 3 goals all year, so the fact that he hasn’t scored doesn’t mean much to me. What does mean a lot is that he’s the team leader in xG at 1.2 (along with 0.7 xGA).
Yapi 2023 heatmap
Positionally, he’s all over the place on the front line, but on the right he’s getting further toward the end line by a lot. Due to his overall lack of playing time, I don’t think the percentile ranks are hugely relevant yet. With that said, he does appear to take on people readily (5.56 take-ons attempted/90) and has success with it (2.32 successful take-ons/90). He’s someone who also appears to carry the ball well (20.38 carries/90, 40.29 progressive carry yards/90, 1.08 carries into the penalty area/90).
Even if he doesn’t start, it seems likely he’ll come off the bench when Charlotte has tired legs. He looks like a real prospect.
Max (CAM/winger)
Brazilian players do names right. Max. Hulk. Fred (even if it is pronounced as “Fredj”).
Max is a 22-year-old winger in his 2nd season with Colorado. Last year he got into 28 games (9 starts), but didn’t score and only had 1 assist. So far this year, he’s gotten into 6 games (4 starts) and still doesn’t have a goal.
Max 2023 heatmap
He favors the left side of the pitch and doesn’t really get into the penalty area all that much. Considering the positions that Rubio gets into, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
FBref allows him to be compared to midfielders or CAMs/wingers. Based on his heatmap and his position in the starting lineups, I’m going to consider him a CAM/winger.
The shooting numbers are terrible, as you might expect from someone who has yet to score a goal in MLS. The passing and possession numbers, though, are good.
89th percentile for medium passes completed (87th percentile for medium passes attempted)
94th percentile for long passes completed (82nd percentile for long passes attempted)
92nd percentile for passes into the final third
86th percentile for progressive passes
99th percentile for successful take-on % (though only 25th percentile for take-ons attempted)
96the percentile for times tackled during a take-on
94th percentile for dispossessed
He’s not perfect in these categories, obviously. His short passing is oddly poor and he doesn’t carry the ball much or well. However, he is still young and many of these numbers point to someone who has serious attacking potential.
William Yarbrough (GK)
Yarbrough is now in his 4th season with Colorado and has been their #1 since his arrival. Over his 3+ seasons, he’s made 88 starts. He’s been…fine? As with any goalkeeper, the numbers are dependent on a number of factors, but his numbers have been pretty in consistent.
His best season was in 2021 when Colorado finished 1st in the Western Conference and made the conference semifinals. In 2020, they finished 8th in the West, and in 2022 they finished 10th in the West.
I’m not fully confident in making the argument that his performance is a result of the overall team, however, I do think there’s a real argument to be made that he’s not lifting his team. Bad teams allow more goals, so you would expect a goalkeeper to have worse numbers. However, good goalkeepers also help bad teams and I’m not sure I see evidence of that happening either.
The PSxG+/- numbers point to a player who, even in his best year, is just slightly above average, while in bad years (2022) is very bad. His number so far this year is excellent, but he doesn’t have a history of keeping it up. Maybe you could argue that he’s still prime-ish age for a goalkeeper (34), so maybe he’s going to have a career year? I tend to trust history more. I imagine that his PSxG+/- will come down a bit.
Overall, Yarbrough looks like an average keeper to me. In general, if the team is good, he’ll probably play well enough for you to win. If the team is bad, he’ll not do much to help you.
Conclusion
We’re in “must-win” territory now. A home game against a struggling team should be cause for optimism. Like most of you, I don’t feel very optimistic right now.
Colorado has some good players, but there’s not one that jumps out as a “danger man.” Players like Rubio, Yapi, and Max can cause problems to be sure, as can players like Ronan and Abubaker (both of whom I didn’t highlight, but are good players in their own right). If this were late 2022 Charlotte, I’d be exceedingly confident of a win. Right now, I’m wondering if we’ll be able to score.
The biggest question for me is what to do with our midfield. In an ideal world, I’d like to try a Karol-Westy-DJ/Bronico midfield. Swiderski and Bender lacked defensive stability against RSL and I just don’t think you can play both of them in the midfield.
This is what I’m hoping to see on Saturday.
Now, this lineup is based on what I think our availability will look like and, more importantly, what I think is reasonable to expect from Lattanzio. If Westwood is fit, I’d put him in for Bronico. Regardless, I think that this lineup gets the majority of our talent into the side (with Nuno being the glaring exception), while also providing us with the best chance at scoring.
In possession, I’d like to see us set up our midfield/backline with one of these two options:
Have DJ drop between the CBs to give us 3 at the back, if we’re going to push Afful and Lindsey into the middle.
Shift Tuiloma, Malanda, and Lindsey left into a back 3 with Afful and Jones forming a double pivot in the midfield.
My preference is option 2 as I’m not convinced Jaylin has the passing ability I want in the center of the pitch. Don’t get me wrong, he can make some fine passes, but they’re usually not build-up passes.
Vargas and Jóźwiak need to continue to provide width, but I am worried about Vargas’ positioning last game. It was something I noted in-game.
I’d like to see Karol closer to Enzo and Enzo more central. Don’t need them passing but it’s too much space and too easy for RSL defenders to, we’ll, defend. Vargas getting pushed up and a bit wider would be nice too but danger from RSL is coming down our left pic.twitter.com/qCPBDqD2cF
It’s further emphasized by his heatmap from that game:
Vargas heatmap at RSL, 4/8
Kerwin Vargas has no business being that far away from the opposing goal. It’s a waste of his talents. Compare the above map to his previous 3 games (ORL, RBNY, TFC):
ORLRBNYTFC
Ideally, I want Vargas’ maps to look like the Orlando and Toronto games all the time.
Let’s hope some issues have been ironed out this week, though I’m not confident. This is one of the few times I’m predicting a home loss and probably the only time to a team I don’t consider elite.
Editor’s note: Previews will be a bit different moving forward. Gone is a complete overview of the opposing team, including every player, in favor of spotlighting 3-4 key players. Most, aside from Johs, probably weren’t interested in that much information. For those who enjoyed the old previews, apologies! For those who never read them or had little interest in them, hopefully this new format will be more interesting!
In a vacuum, the draw against Toronto is a really good result. In the real world, the draw against Toronto is still a really good result. So, why do I feel disappointed by it?
I think it’s the manner in which we conceded the goals, especially the first one. Normally, announcers annoy me, but I thought the broadcast team made the correct point that, with the wind the way it was, not having a player on the back post was malfeasance. Perhaps that ball still goes in, but I’d much rather have known we had set up to defend it properly. We were the beneficiaries of an Olympico last year, so there’s no real right to complain, but Jordy didn’t have the benefit of the wind.
Seeing Jóźwiak finally get a goal was wonderful. I’m sure it must feel like a huge weight has been lifted off his shoulders. I hope this is the start of a wave of goal involvement from him.
Kamil has never been as bad as his detractors have said, as he’s consistently added running and defense, along with a little trickiness, to the team. However, he’s also not quite as good as many of his most ardent supporters claim either. At the end of the day, Jóźwiak is a winger. While tracking back on defense and making tackles is all well and good, his primary responsibility is to contribute goals. It’s something he hasn’t done reliably for a few years now. Let’s hope the latter half of last season and this goal are a sign of a newfound goal-contribution reliability.
I also thought he looked pretty good on the right. I’m a longstanding proponent of LW-Jóźwiak-only, but having him on the right does 1) help fill one of the problem positions and 2) allows Vargas to be on the left where he can cut in onto a right-footed shot. If he can continue putting in performances like he did against Toronto from that side, the front 3 is set.
Well, that’s if Copetti doesn’t continue to pick up yellow cards at an alarming rate. He’s currently on 4 yellows; one more will get him a suspension. Part of this accumulation is on Enzo, but I do think he’s picked up at least a couple for…well…I’m not sure why. The RBNY game is a prime example of how I think he’s been officiated a bit differently so far. He gets a yellow for a shoulder charge, but an RBNY player does it in the same spot on the pitch later and only gets a foul.
Enzo right now reminds me of how Granit Xhaka was and can be officiated in the Premier League. Xhaka is another player who skews towards the “hot-headed” end of the spectrum. As a result, Xhaka has often picked up yellows and reds for challenges that others get away with entirely or get away with for far less. Again, some of this is on a player like Xhaka or Enzo; some of it, though, is a reputation that is gained. Players should not be officiated on reputation, though. They should be officiated on what they do. It’s especially alarming that a guy can get a reputation in just a handful of games.
Team
Possession
Points (Standings)
WhoScored Team Rating (SofaScore Team Rating)
Charlotte FC
56.5%
5 (14th in the East)
6.51 (6.77)
Real Salt Lake
49.0%
3 (11th in the West)
6.46 (6.70)
Team
Shots per game
Shots on target per game
Goals for (xG)
Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC
10.00
3.17
5 (6.0)
11 (7.8)
Real Salt Lake
12.40
5.60
3 (4.5)
13 (11.1)
This should be fun. The moveable object meets the stoppable force! I’ll let you decide who is who.
Neither of these teams is particularly good at getting goals. Charlotte is near the bottom of the league in shots per game and shots on target, though we’re second in the league in terms of possession While Real is middle of the road when it comes to getting shots off, their xG is bottom of the entire league. RSL beat Vancouver Matchday 1, but scored both of their goals within 3 minutes of each other in the 2nd half. They have yet to have a player with the designation of “Forward” on FBref score a goal for them. Their leading goalscorer is a defender with 2.
It’s too early to say that our goals allowed are a function of bad luck, but it should be noted that there is a huge discrepancy already between what would be expected and what we’ve actually given up. Note that while Charlotte and RSL have given up a similar number of goals–11 and 13, respectively–the xGA difference is massive (7.8 xGA for Charlotte; 11.1 xGA for RSL). RSL’s xGA is 2nd worse in the league (0.02 behind Montreal). In the East, teams like Inter Miami and New England both have slightly worse xGA–8.4 and 8.2, respectively–but have allowed far fewer actual goals than Charlotte (7 GA for Inter; 6 GA for NE). The Olympico this past weekend certainly plays a part in this discrepancy, but I’m hoping that our defensive record will improve and return to a number closer to the xGA.
For what it’s worth, last year we ended with an xGA of 44.1 but allowed 52 actual goals. Bad to below-average defensive teams will “outperform” their xGA, but I’m not ready to say we’re a bad defensive team just yet. It’s true we haven’t been good, but there have been a lot of moving pieces and reasons for this.
Lineup
RSL vs ATX, 3/11/23
RSL vs. STL, 3/25/23
RSL at CLB, 4/1/23
RSL has been playing a 4-2-3-1 until last week. Now, as always, the formation that is listed on MLS’s site could be correct or not. For instance, they had Charlotte in a 4-5-1 last weekend, while Charlotte’s official Twitter had us in a 4-3-3. Go figure. Perhaps it’s incorrect, or perhaps they did switch it up for this past game. If they did switch it up, it didn’t work as they endured a 2nd straight 4-0 loss.
Regardless of the formation, what should be noted about this team is the utter randomness of their personnel. That’s (probably) hyperbole, but if Charlotte fans are complaining about how much CL chops and changes, I can’t imagine how Salt Lake fans feel.
Aside from their center-back Justen Glad and fullback Andrew Brody, I see no other player that has appeared in each of the past 3 games. Indeed, those are the only two players who have started in each of RSL’s games so far this year. There are only a few other players–midfielder Damir Kreilach and forwards Anderson Julio, Carlos Gómez, and Justin Meram–who have appeared in all 5 games.
I won’t hazard a guess as to who we’ll see.
Injury Report
As of last week’s MLS Availability Report, RSL has quite a few issues (which also likely helps explain the myriad of personnel changes discussed above). Forwards Jefferson Savarino and Daniel Musovski were both listed as “Probable” last week with a calf and ankle issue, respectively. However, neither even made the bench. Defender Marcelo Silva was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury and also didn’t make the bench.
Meanwhile, defenders Bryan Ovideo (calf), Zackery Farnsworth (thigh), and Erik Holt (Achilles) were all listed as “Out.” Midfielder Bode Hidalgo and forward Axel Kei (ankle) were listed as “Out.”
Most of these absences aren’t noteworthy, as most of these players are young and haven’t featured yet or often for RSL. Ovideo is a bit of an exception, as he made 3 starts.
The other potential exception is Kei who is FIFTEEN. He signed a professional contract with RSL as a 14-year-old, breaking Freddy Adu’s record. He made his debut in the USL at the age of 13 (and 8 months)! He’s already listed at 6’1″ and 161 lbs, so physically, he has a body capable of competing at this level. I can’t imagine he gets a ton of playing time at the MLS level this year, but who knows? If he’s good enough to get a contract, he might be good enough to break through. He’s more of an interesting name to know for the future rather than for this game.
Jefferson Savarino (LW, RW, CAM)
Savarino is RSL’s only Designated Player. While he has been listed on the injury report and didn’t feature last week, his “Probable” designation leads me to believe he might be back for our game. This tweet seems to confirm that (though I can’t speak to the veracity of the account).
MLS Players expected to be available for selection to return/make season debut on Saturday: #LAGalaxy Chicharito #InterMiamiCF Leonardo Campana #LegionOfLoons Sang Bin Jeong#VamosUnited Lewis O’Brien #RSL Jefferson Savarino
Savarino is a 26-year-old Venezuelan who rejoined RSL last year from Atlético Mineiro in the Brazilian Série A. He began his career with Zulia in the Venezuelan league, before joining RSL in 2017 as a 20-year-old. He spent 3 seasons with RSL before moving to Mineiro in 2020.
In his first stint with RSL, he made 82 appearances and 78 starts, scoring 21 goals and getting 19 assists. With Mineiro, he made 53 appearances and 40 starts, scoring 14 goals and getting 8 assists. Since his return to Salt Lake, he has made 23 appearances and 20 starts, including 19 appearances last year and 4 this year.
He’s a flat-out productive player. Last year in his 19 appearances (17 starts) he got 7 goals and 4 assists. He has an assist this year already. Further, he’s consistent in his production. From 2018-2020, he made 27-32 starts and scored 7 or 8 goals with 5-9 assists each year. In 2017 he made 19 starts for RSL and in 2021 he made 11 starts for Mineiro. He scored 6 goals in 2017 and 5 in 2021, with 5 assists in 2017 and 2 assists in 2021. Basically, if he starts anywhere near 20 games, he’s going to give you double-digit goal contributions. If he’s starting closer to 30 games, he’ll probably mean in the 13-15 goal/assist range.
On top of that, he’ll play anywhere across the front line (though not as a striker).
Savarino 2023 RSL heatmap
Savarino 2022 RSL heatmap
Savarino 2021 Mineiro heatmap
Savarino 2020/21 Mineiro heatmap
Savarino 2019 RSL heatmap
What’s interesting is that Mineiro used him exclusively as a right-sided player. Prior to his departure to Mineiro, RSL used him in the same way. Since his return, though, they’ve been a lot less strict with this. Last year, he’s all over the pitch, while in his brief time this year, he’s been primarily deployed from the left. He clearly has the versatility to play either side or centrally.
Savarino shooting percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 daysSavarino SCA/GCA percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 days
With his goal-scoring record, I expected him to be a bit higher in these shooting percentiles. What does jump out, though, is his ability from free kicks, as he’s taking a high number as well as creating an insanely high amount of GCAs and SCAs from dead-ball situations.
Savarino passing percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 daysSavarino pass type percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 daysSavarino possession percentiles vs. Next 8 wingers/CAMs over the past 365 days
Yep, the passing is very good. Ignore the percentage (71.6% and 64th percentile), as the quality is what jumps out. He’s not settling with the ball, but rather making progressive, dangerous passes. The same can be said with his dribbling and carrying ability. Let’s hope he needs another week to recover.
Damir Kreilach (CAM)
The 33-year-old Croat is in his 6th season with RSL, having joined from Union Berlin in 2018. With RSL, Kreilach has made 129 appearances (122 starts), scoring 44 goals and getting 18 assists. His best year, by far, was in 2021 when he made 32 starts, scored 16 goals (0 PKs!), and got 8 assists.
Last year was a lost year for Kreilach due to injury. He made only 5 appearances (3 starts) and scored once. He was injured in April and missed the rest of the season. He’s returned this year to feature in all 5 games and make 4 starts, along with scoring once and getting an assist.
While the 16 goals in 2021 were impressive, it’s a bit out of the ordinary for him. He has 2 other years of double-digit goal scoring: 2018 when he had 12 in his first year with RSL and 2015-16 when he had 12 with Union Berlin. With that said, he still found the back of the net 6 times in 2019 and 8 times in 2020, along with 5 assists across the two seasons. Further, Kreilach isn’t a striker; rather, RSL plays him more as an attacking midfielder.
Kreilach 2021 heatmap
Kreilach 2021 heatmap
At 33 and coming off an injury, who knows what kind of year he’ll have? Based on his history, as long as he’s returned to health I imagine that he’ll be somewhere in the 5-8 goal range with 3-5 assists. With RSL’s struggles, his numbers may be depressed due to a lack of quality around him.
The big danger* with Kreilach is that, while he doesn’t shoot often (47th percentile for shots total at just 2.08 per 90) when he does he’s extremely accurate (99th percentile for shots on target percentage at 58.3%). A corollary to this precision is the fact that when he shoots, he’s doing so from incredibly dangerous positions. His average shot distance is just 13.30 yards away from the goal, which is good for the 96th percentile. Our defenders and midfielders–especially DJ–are going to have to keep an eye on where he is at all times, but especially so when RSL find themselves in our third and around our box.
*Note: due to his injury absence last year, some of his percentiles are probably skewed. He’s being compared with wingers/CAMs from the Next 8 leagues over the past 365 days. Normally I’d be cautious about including these numbers due to his long injury absence, but when looking at his 2021 season, most are similar. For example, he’s in the 95th percentile for shots on target percentage at 52.7% and he’s in the 76th percentile for average shot distance at 15.70 yards out. I’m confident that while the numbers that look at the past year are a bit skewed for him, they still give a good representation of who he is as a player and where and how he presents danger.
Andrew Brody (FB)
While Brody and Glad are the only two players to have started all 5 games, I find Brody to be the more interesting of the two. Specifically, he’s a fullback that has played extensively as both a left-back and right-back. On the year, he’s made 3 starts at RB and 2 at LB.
Last year, in 34 appearances (33 starts), he was mostly deployed as a LB (21 times) but has a significant amount of time on the right side too (6 times as a RB, 5 times as a RM/RW). He has some designations as a WB (4 times) too, but I’m too lazy to look through each to see what side he was on. The point is, this is a guy who is comfortable on either side and RSL is clearly comfortable with that too.
Last year was his best season from a goal-contribution standpoint in MLS as he scored twice and got 4 assists. Now, he is a bit of a late bloomer. Brody didn’t make his MLS debut until he was 25 in 2021. Prior to that, he spent 6 seasons with the Real Monarchs. He made 101 appearances (88 starts) for the Monarchs, scoring 7 times and getting 8 assists. And that record is important, I think.
In the lower division, he was consistently getting a couple of goals a year and anywhere from 2-4 assists. Last year may have been a career year in a sense, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 1-2 goals and 2-3 assists again this year based on that history.
Brody 2023 heatmap
Brody 2022 heatmap
That’s an overlapping fullback if I’ve ever seen one. Last year’s map is probably influenced by his time as a more attacking wide player (either as a wingback or right-sided midfielder), but he’s clearly a player who likes the touchline.
Brody passing percentiles vs. Next 8 fullbacks over the past 365 daysBrody possession percentiles vs. Next 8 fullbacks over the past 365 daysBrody defensive percentiles vs. Next 8 fullbacks over the past 365 days
So, he’s not in the team for defense. I’d describe him as an above-average offensive fullback. His progressive passing (98th percentile) and passes into the final third (90th percentile) do jump out, as does his carrying ability (97th percentile for progressive carries, 90th percentile for carries into the final third, 86th percentile for carries into the penalty area).
This is meaningful carrying of the ball, too, as he’s only in the 63rd percentile for carries, but in the 93rd percentile for total carrying distance and, more importantly, the 94th percentile for progressive carrying distance. If he improves his overall passing a bit and improves his defense to even below average (rather than just plain bad), he’ll be one of the better fullbacks in the league.
Whichever side he’s on, our wingers need to attack him and the space he’ll leave. My hope is that he’s playing RB again so that Vargas can get in behind him.
Zac MacMath (GK)/Gavin Beavers (GK)
MacMath was RSL’s undisputed #1 last year, as he started all 34 matches. He wasn’t bad either, considering RSL’s overall league position. He allowed 45 goals, had a 73.5% save percentage, and a 1.32 GA90. The PSxG+/- number wasn’t great at -1.9, but that was almost 50% better than Kahlina’s (-3.6).
With all this said, he was benched last week. Perhaps this shouldn’t be too surprising.
MacMath is 31 and last year was his first time as an undisputed #1 since 2014 when he was 22 and with Philadelphia. In fact, with Philadelphia, he made his first starts as a 19-year-old and spent 4 total seasons with the club. He made 102 starts for Philly, but only had a 67.5% save percentage with them, allowing 1.37 goals per 90.
He moved to Colorado for 4 seasons but only got double-digit starts once (17 in 2016). With Colorado, his save percentage (75.0%) and goals allowed per 90 (1.14) were much better, but he also played significantly less. A year stop in Vancouver saw him make just 8 starts. In his first 2 seasons with RSL, he would only make 13 starts.
Basically, until last year, MacMath’s career had been that of a backup. This year in his 4 starts, he allowed 9 goals and had just a 66.67% save percentage. As with any keeper, these stats will be, in part, determined by the defense in front of him. However, with the way the season has started for Real, it’s unsurprising that they would try something different.
In stepped Gavin Beavers. Beavers became the third youngest starting keeper in MLS history at just 17 years old. He allowed 4 goals. The young man must be hoping for better things ahead.
It’ll be curious to see who gets the nod this match. It seems that if you’re willing to start a 17-year-old keeper on the road, you’d be willing to do it at home. Perhaps it was just a wake-up call to MacMath. It does seem too early to throw in the towel on the season (which starting a 17-year-old in goal would seemingly imply).
In the end, Charlotte will be facing either a journeyman keeper or a baby in goal. Charlotte doesn’t often show the ability to test keepers early and often, but this is a game to do it in.
Conclusion
Real Salt Lake is more of a mess than Charlotte right now. Injuries are certainly a part of this club’s struggles in the early season, but so is the talent level. In key positions, they are young or lacking talent. I can’t lie, though, I’d love to see them start a 17-year-old in goal and a 15-year-old up top. It won’t happen against us, but maybe this year? Fingers crossed.
Road games are not Charlotte’s forte, but if there was ever a time to get a road win, it’s this game. In fact, this is as close to a must-win game as you can have with a Western Conference team in April. A draw would be fine (it is important to remember that playoff teams don’t so much win on the road as a draw), but a win would really make our position in the standings feel better.
It looks like Ashley Westwood is set to miss another game. Honestly, I’d really like Lattanzio to run out the exact same lineup he did against Toronto, with the exception of adding Świderski back in for Nuno or Bender. Ben had a great game, so I think it would be unlucky for him to not play.
With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brand and Karol back in the lineup in place of Bender and Nuno. I’m not sure that’s fair to either Bender or Nuno, but I’ve been very wrong this entire year about CL’s selections. Maybe I’ll probably be wrong again.
Nuno missed some chances last game, but I’m not convinced he had a bad game. He still had to get into those positions to make those changes. Plus, we can’t clamor for him to start and then reverse that after one start. He needs consistent minutes.
Up front, the trio of Vargas-Copetti-Jóźwiak should start again; I can’t see a reason for them not to. It’s a similar situation in goal and with the backline. Our best 4 defenders right now are Afful-Tuiloma-Malanda-Lindsey. It should continue.
In Match Day 6 away against Toronto FC, we managed to rescue a point after being 2-0 down. We’ve created a bit of momentum with the somewhat positive results of the last three games, including two draws and a win.
Coach Lattanzio made three changes following the draw at home against New York Red Bulls, including McKinze Gaines being benched and Kamil Jóźwiak making the Starting XI on the right wing. At the same time, Kerwin Vargas took over on the left side of the attacking front three. He was joined by Enzo Copetti up top.
In midfield, Ben Bender made a start over the suspended Brandt Bronico. MLS reviewed a tackle Bronico made on Omir Fernandez (RBNY), which led to Bronico facing a game suspension and an undisclosed fine. Jones, Bender, and Nuno Santos would hold down the midfield.
In defense, only one change was made, with Bill Tuiloma making a return from injury over Nathan Byrne. Coach Lattanzio would stay with the 4-3-3 format that got him the draw last week against New York Red Bulls.
The first half was a mess on corners and a cold night in Toronto is not the place to coincide corners. In the 5th min, we conceded an Olympico goal. Four minutes later, we set up an opportunity at Toronto’s goal, with Nuno Santos getting a great chance at goal. Charlotte would have a couple more chances in the forms of an 11th minute cross from Vargas onto the head of Nuno Santos and a free kick from Santos into the inside box (with the header going wide from Enzo Copetti).
The second goal from Toronto came from a 44th minute goal from a corner kick, when Michael Bradley got his head onto it and sent it into the back of the net.
The first half would belong to Toronto FC. They got more shots on target (5) compared to Charlotte (2), as well as having 8 corners in the first half. Of course, 2 of these corners led to goals.
The second half was the changing point for Charlotte FC.
Five minutes into the first half, with buildup on the right side between Jóźwiak and Lindsey, Jóźwiak crossed it into Bender. Bender calmly slotted it away.
The second goal would be in the 70th minute. Vargas received the ball on the edge of the area and sent in a cross for Jóźwiak, who would put one past the keeper.
The second half would ultimately belong to Charlotte. As this season has shown, the second half is where Charlotte seems to change the match’s tempo in their favor. The second half stats show that Charlotte held most of the possession (56%) and had more shots (7 vs Toronto’s 3). Charlotte also had more corners (7 to 2).
The Match ended in a 2-2 draw.
Takeaways
While Nuno had a shot at goal in the ninth minute to equalize, I would’ve preferred him to look to his left side towards Vargas. Vargas had a better opportunity at goal compared with Nuno shooting it from outside the box. This would have taken back the early momentum and given Charlotte a better chance at a full 3 points.
Why do we need to be 2-0 down for there to be any urgency toward getting goals? This is the second straight week we’ve gotten a draw from a winnable opponent. Red Bull and Toronto were, and still are, beatable teams if we could just stop conceding these’s goals early on. It seems it is either the defense being bad in the first half or forwards not playing with a level of urgency. When looking at the last 3 games, it appears we’re better at working under the pressure of defeat.
MotM: This week’s Man of the Match is Kamil Jóźwiak. He had a goal and an assist in his 71 minutes of action.
It’s fair to say that the start of this season hasn’t been great. It also isn’t dissimilar to last year. Under MAR, Charlotte began its inaugural campaign with 3 losses but followed that up with 3 wins in the next four matches (the lone non-win being a loss away at Philadelphia).
It’s hard to remember now, but Charlotte played some pretty good football at the end of the year in 2022 as they made their push to sneak into the playoffs. Ultimately, that push came up short, but it gave me a lot of hope for this year. It seemed a template was set. This year, though, there has been a chopping and changing of personnel and the results have been…erratic.
One of the issues that we’ve discussed here–and has been discussed ad nauseam amongst the entire fanbase–is the formation and personnel that are playing or should be played. What seems more important to me, though, is how that personnel and formations are actually being executed in game.
One of the ways we can view this is by looking at passing networks. They’re what the name implies: visuals that illustrate the passing connections between players. MLS is kind enough to have them for every game. Indeed, they’re much more interactive on MLS’s website (for instance, if you hover your cursor over a line, it will tell you the number of passes between players, in both directions). While screenshotting these networks and putting them here takes away some of the interactivity, it doesn’t take away the usefulness.
A few things to consider:
There is some cutoff for passing networks. What I mean by that is, if you take Atlanta’s passing map from our game this year (found here), you will see that Miguel Berry (#19) has literally no lines connecting him to any of his teammates. That would seem to imply that he never completed a pass. That’s inaccurate. You can go to FBref (here) and see that he actually completed 6/6 passes. That’s obviously not a ton of passes for a player who played 58 minutes, but it’s not zero. Just because there is no line, doesn’t mean there wasn’t any connection; just that the connection was too small to be relevant.
Thicker lines indicate more passes between players.
Player positions on these maps are relative and an average of where they were. These networks should not be viewed as a measure of the areas a player took positions up in. Look to heatmaps for a better visual of that.
Some passing networks will have larger dots or smaller dots for players to denote how many passes that player attempted. MLS does not do that.
With those caveats out of the way, let’s actually look at some networks for Charlotte, both from this year and last*.
*Note: I have taken the last 4 games of Charlotte’s 2022 season, but replaced the home NYCFC game for Columbus. That Columbus game was technically the 2nd to last game for us, but due to it being split over multiple days for the weather delay, and the vast change in personnel from when it was started to when it ended, I thought it better to ignore.
2022 Passing Networks: NYCF, CHI, PHI, and RBNY
CLT passing network vs. NYCFC, 9/10/22CLT passing network at CHI, 9/17/22CLT passing network vs. PHI, 10/1/22CLT passing network at RBNY, 10/9/22
2023 Passing Networks: NE, STL, ATL, ORL, and RBNY
CLT passing network vs. NE, 2/25/23CLT passing network at STL, 3/4/23CLT passing network vs. ATL, 3/11/23CLT passing network at ORL, 3/18/23CLT passing network vs. RBNY, 3/25/23
Striker Isolation
So that’s a lot of visuals, where do we start?
When viewing the networks from last year’s games, one of the first things that jumped out to me is the relative proximity of Karol Świderski and Daniel Ríos. The home game against Philadelphia has them the furthest apart from each other, but they are still relatively close. In the NYCFC and Chicago games, they are practically on top of one another. Interestingly, Karol is ahead of Ríos in that Chicago game, too. Then, in the RBNY game, they’re not quite as close, but still pretty darn close.
What’s also interesting is that even though each is taking up similar positions and playing close to one another, they are notpassing to one another. In the NYCFC network, Karol is literally on top of Ríos, so it’s actually impossible to know if there was a connection, but I don’t believe there was. There is no line for the Chicago or Philadelphia game, and the small line against RBNY represents 6 total passes between them (3 each way). Again, this doesn’t mean that against Chicago or Philadelphia they never passed to each other, just that it happened so little there is no line to represent it. But the proximity in which they played clearly benefited the team. Charlotte scored 8 total goals over these games (RBNY was a shutout, but the team had nothing to play for and I think it showed).
Now, compare this proximity between striker and CAM with the maps from this year. Immediately you notice just how isolated Enzo Copetti is.
Against New England to begin the season, the positioning does look similar to the end of last year. However, against St. Louis, with Karol switched out wide and Andre Shinyashiki replacing him in that forward 8/central attacking midfielder role, Enzo is by himself up top. Against Atlanta, Enzo has Jóźwiak for company, but worryingly–and absurdly–there is no connection between anyone in our midfield and Enzo. Orlando, which has probably been the best display of attack we’ve had all season (that’s not saying a lot), has him playing right next to Ashley Westwood. Again, the two dots are so close it’s impossible to tell if there is a connection. Finally, against RBNY, Copetti is again a man by himself. Clearly, one of the early season issues for this team is the isolation of our striker up top.
Midfield Cluster and Lack of Width
Now, Enzo might find himself in acres of space with nary a friendly face to be seen, but our midfielders certainly don’t have that problem. At least this is true in the 2 worst games we’ve played all year: St. Louis and Atlanta. Look at the ridiculousness in those games. Against St. Louis, Andre is almost covering Westwood, while Derrick Jones is slightly behind. Against Atlanta, you literally can’t see Westwood’s number (it is him), as DJ’s is completely covering it. Andre, meanwhile, is overlapping DJ.
Those two games highlight another issue we’ve been having, though one that I believe CL is working to solve: the narrowness of this team. St. Louis probably represents the extreme of this. Look at that game’s network compared with Orlando’s, which comes 2 weeks later. The width that is being held by players like Gaines and Byrne on the right in Orlando and Vargas on the left is a sight for sore eyes.
When you look back at the 2022 networks, you see that there is always at least one player who is holding width with the exception of the game against Philadelphia: Gaines against NYCFC; Byrne (and to a lesser degree Afful) against Chicago; and Jóźwiak and Byrne against RBNY. Now, I will admit that against Philadelphia, we are playing a bit narrower than in the other games, so there are times when you can set a team up that way and find success. For this team, though, that is an exception.
Pinned Back
Coupled with the above width and midfield issue is the issue of how deeply our team is being pinned back, especially our wingers. New England to open at least has Gaines and Świderski trying to join Copetti, but against St. Louis, no one but Enzo is beyond the halfway line. Against Atlanta, it’s a bit better, but still not great. Again, Orlando is probably our best attacking performance of the season and we finally see players taking positions up the pitch. We revert against RBNY, though. Gaines, Nuno, and Byrne are all clustered together holding the width, but only Nuno and Gaines are taking up positions beyond the halfway line, and barely at that. Again, compare this to those 2022 maps where we consistently have 4 players in the opponent’s half.
For a team that wants to hit on the counter, maybe these kinds of networks would be fine, especially when it comes to player positions. That is not Christian Lattanzio’s Charlotte. Here are our possession percentages by game:
54.40% against NE
61.00% against STL
55.80% against ATL
44.60% against ORL
74.00% against RBNY
Some of those possession numbers are absolutely wild, yet we are literally doing nothing with them. This team has scored 4 goals on the year, and one of those was an own goal.
Next Steps
So what do we do about this? Well, I’m not an expert on tactics. I point you to Euan’s excellent piece on our tactics in the wake of the Atlanta loss for someone who knows that subject much better than I do. What I will say is that I view this post as a companion piece to that one. We’re looking at the same issues through different lenses, so many of my conclusions align with what Euan said in that piece, though I don’t pretend to speak for him (please read his piece for his thoughts!).
First, Świderski needs to be back in as the attacking 8 or CAM (whatever you want to call it due to whatever formation you want to say we’re playing). Enzo Copetti has been far too isolated and needs someone else to help occupy defenders. Our best football under Lattanzio has come with him as a pseudo-striker who can drop deep, link play, and then make forward runs.
I’m a big, BIG fan of Nuno Santos and I want to see more of him, but also, maybe that game against Orlando shows us why he hasn’t been picked? I’ll caveat what I’m going to say next with “small sample size,” but if those are the areas that Nuno likes to drift into, then it makes more sense as to why he hasn’t been selected.
Second, the emphasis on width that we’ve seen in the last two games has to continue. It was apparent to me within the first 10 minutes of the Red Bulls’ game that Vargas and Gaines had been told to stay wide. It’s something that we did last year with at least one of our wingers and should continue. Vargas, I think, is the key here. If he’s on the left, then you need your right winger to stay touchline tight, regardless of if it’s Gaines, Jóźwiak, or Mello. If Vargas is on the right, I’d probably have him fill that role, while allowing Jóźwiak on the left to cut in.
As Justin likes to say, all our wingers are better on the left. I’ll add to that that we have a lot of wingers who prefer to cut inside. For some teams, you could allow both wings to cut in and keep width with overlapping FBs. As I’ve talked nonstop about, CL doesn’t want that; he wants his FBs inverted.
While I believe that Vargas could provide width effectively, it’s probably not the best use of his full talents. We’ve seen time and again how good his right foot is. Allowing him the opportunity to cut in onto it from the left makes a ton of sense. If we could combine his right foot with Świderski’s left, we’d have a player who would’ve been way too good to ever play for us!
Third, improve the spacing in the midfield. With more width provided by at least 1 winger, we need to see Westwood or Bronico further from Jones and whatever left-back is tucking into the midfield (I’m assuming for the time being that will be Afful). Orlando’s passing network is probably the best version of this so far. It should be noted that, of course, there are times when midfielders can be close (see: Bronico and Jones against Philadelphia last year), but what we’ve seen in the St. Louis and Atlanta games can’t happen again.
These networks are just one way to look at this team, but they confirm issues that we are seeing in-game, namely, that our possession is toothless and our passing is largely harmless. Euan asked the question of why Lattanzio changed his tactics from what seemed to be working so well at the end of last year. Like him, I can’t fully answer that. I do think we’re starting to see a shift back to some of those end-of-year principles, though. Hopefully, Saturday sees a continuation of the improvement the team has shown over the past couple of games (at least compared to the first few).
April offers a chance to erase the poor start. Toronto has only 1 win on the season (though 3 draws) and is missing Lorenzo Insigne. Real Salt Lake has 1 win and 3 losses, with a -6 GD (we only have -5!). Colorado sits bottom of the West with 2 draws and 3 losses. Columbus…well, they just thrashed Atlanta and will probably have Cucho back by our game (lucky us!), so it’ll be tough. DC ends the month. They have just 1 win and only beat us in the standings due to a slightly better GD.
Something like 2 wins, 2 draws, and a loss in those games would feel pretty good. Something like 3 wins and 2 draws would really change some feelings around here. Fortunately, or possibly unfortunately, by the end of next month, we’ll probably have a pretty good idea of if this team has a realistic shot to make the playoffs. Let’s hope it’s a good April.
Own goals! We love them when the other team gives them up!
We got a point at home against New York Red Bull and are still riding the positive momentum after last week’s win against Orlando City away. Following the win against Orlando, Coach Lattanzio made three changes from the squad that won 2-1 against Orlando City, including Nathan Byrne taking over the CB spot from Tuiloma due to the latter’s injury.
Lattanzio kept his outside midfielders the same, with Vargas and Gaines rewarded with a place in the starting lineup. Bronico and Jones held down the midfield. Captain Ashley Westwood was not featured in the match against RBNY as he suffered a thigh injury against Orlando City. Former Benfica academy product Nuno Santos replaced him in the midfield. The last change would be Lattanzio switching to a 4-5-1 over his preferred formation of a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1.
The first half left much to be desired as Charlotte was held to only one shot. Red Bulls were able to get the opening goal in the 42nd minute due to a mistake from Byrne, who miscontrolled a back pass. RBNY player Elias Manoel took advantage of this mistake, getting a one-on-one against goalkeeper George Marks. The result was Manoel scoring.
The first-half stats had New York with six shots (four on target) with three leading to saves from Marks. Charlotte held onto most of the possession, having 72% compared to Red Bulls’ 28 %. There was a huge passing disparity between the teams. Charlotte completed 332 passes to Red Bulls’ 125, but went into the break down 1-0.
Charlotte fans needed more from the team in the second half.
The second half was all Charlotte. The home team had more shots, while RBNY parked the bus and gave away sloppy fouls. Charlotte continued its attack on the Red Bulls’ goal. Charlotte’s patience and persistence throughout the match would eventually lead to our reward and us walking away with a point intact.
Kerwin Vargas proved his worth throughout the match. He seemed to be directly involved with every opportunity at goal and broke the lines of the Red Bull defense. Vinicius Mello finally made his debut 467 days after signing for Charlotte FC as a sub in the 68th minute. The match immediately felt his presence as he was able to take on his defender in the seventy-third minute and whip in a ball to the left side and the feet of Vargas. Vargas took on his defender and hit a cross that deflected off of RBNY defender, Andrés Reyes, for an own goal.
The game ended at 1-1.
Takeaways
I want more pressure on our opponents when they are shooting. RBNY was prone to shooting from long-range (see the long-range efforts from Luquinhas (82) in the 7th and 38th minutes as examples).
I need more communication among the defenders. For example, in the 48th minute, Cameron Harper got off a shot at our goal due to miscommunication between the left-back and the left-sided center-back.This miscommunication led Byrne into a tough choice about whether or not to go towards the attacking player, which ultimately led to a dangerous chance for New York.
Copetti…I don’t think I like my striker to have as many yellows as they do goals. I can appreciate the fact that he’s hungry, and it show’s that he’s passionate about getting the ball, but he can’t keep getting baited into silly challenges. Already he’s at a point where if he gets two more, he’ll miss a game.
Kerwin Vargas is looking to make his place in the Starting XI permanent. On his day, he’s unplayable. He can do wonders in his one on one play, which opens up the opportunities for Copetti to receive crosses in the middle or Gaines to receive at the back post.
Man of the Match goes to two players this week: Kerwin Vargas and George Marks. Both players were pivotal in getting this result. Marks provided a crucial stop in the 48th minute that could have led to us being down 2-0. On the day, he made 5 saves, had 1 punch, and completed 37/42 passes. Vargas, on the other hand, provided us with the attack we needed. He was able to effectively get up the field and drew 4 fouls. He also led the team with 8 crosses.
Game Moments
Charlotte FC vs. RBNY highlights, 3/25
Vargas cross (leading to Bronico decoy and Gaines’ shot): 0:42- 0:52
Huh, guess these fanbases have something in common. I’d give Orlando fans first dibs on these feelings due to their seniority. Saturday was as noncompetitive as I’ve seen Charlotte in its short history. That’s about all I have to say about things that have happened over the past week.
Lineups
Orlando has started the season much better than Charlotte with a home victory over RBNY (1-0), a home draw against Cincinnati (0-0), and an away draw against DC United (1-1). Defensively, you feel okay about that, but 2 goals in 3 games isn’t great (says the fan of the 1 goal team…).
In addition to theses league games, Orlando is also in the CCL. On 3/7, they produced a great result of 0-0 at UANL. I say this statement in all sincerity, as it set them up very well for the home leg on 3/15. Well, in addition to Fox cutting the feed before the game was over, Orlando came up just short with a 1-1 draw, sending Tigres through on away goals (stupid rule). Tigres is one of the better clubs on this continent, so I don’t think Orlando should be too down on itself. Certainly disappointed, but not disheartened.
More importantly from a Charlotte perspective, Orlando has played 180 more minutes of football than us, including what will be 3 games this week. Wednesday night’s affair was all high-stakes, so hopefully it was energy sapping.
Now, there is a positive way to look at this. We are still very much in “early season” form. Part of the reason MLS teams struggle so much in CCL is because the MLS season has just started, while Liga MX (and other leagues) sides have been going for multiple games already. UANL has already played 11 league games. The chemistry of that team is far above Orlando’s, or any MLS side. There might be more wear on Orlando legs; they might have better understanding, though.
Orlando vs. RBNY, 2/25Orlando vs. Cincinnati, 3/4Orlando at DC, 3/11Orlando at UANL, 3/7Orlando vs. UANL, 3/15
Orlando’s lineups are all over the place. It looks like a 4-2-3-1 might be their preferred, but then you have that 3-4-2-1 and 5-3-2 hanging out there. Now, the differences between a back 5 and a back 3 can be blurry, so that 3-4-2-1 could easily be a 5-2-3 (or something of the sort). The point is, this is a team that has some lineup variation, so it should be interesting to see what they do on Saturday with it.
My guess–based on the way they started the season and the lineup they’ve put out against Tigres–is that the 4-2-3-1 with those personnel choices is the (mostly) preferred lineup.
Injury
According to the MLS Availability Report, Orlando have a pretty clean bill of health. Only forward Favian Loyola is listed as Questionable with a left thigh injury. He’s 17 and doesn’t have a first team appearances, so, all-in-all, Orlando will be coming in with a full-strength squad.
Note: Antonio Carlos has injury concerns but isn’t listed in the Availability Report. More on this later.
Attack
Like Atlanta, Orlando has a young South American DP player who should be the focal point of opposition teams: the Uruguayan, Facundo Torres. There were rumors of Torres being linked to Arsenal in January, though obviously nothing came of that.
Torres is listed as a midfielder and forward, which is unsurprising when you see the formations above. The 22-year-old had a strong debut season in MLS last year, scoring 9 goals (1 PK) and getting 8 assists. Now, he did that off the back of a 4.7 xG (4.0 npxG) so there is some question about the sustainability of that goal-scoring production. Good goal-scorers usually over-perform their xG; they don’t usually double it. He also over-performed his xAG, which was 5.4. He has 1 of Orlando’s 2 goals on the season.
Torres had 10 goals over 50 appearances for Peñarol (his previous club) in his age 19 and 20 seasons. The history of goalscoring is there. The questions are: does his goal tally come down? Does the xG improve? Is he a unicorn who consistently over performs his xG to this level? He’ll be 23 this season, so there’s plenty of time for this to become clear. What is clear now is that Charlotte will have to be aware of him.
In addition to his obvious goal-contributions, Torres is a dangerous passer. He’s not elite here yet, but he is good. He’s in the 83rd percentile for assists, the 81st percentile for progressive passes, and in the 70th percentile ranges for passes into the final third (76th), passes into the penalty area (74th), and crosses into the penalty area (71st).
He’s a good carrier of the ball (82nd percentile for carries, 72nd percentile for progressive carrying distance, and 76th percentile for carries into the final third) and receiver of the ball (80th percentile for passes received, 74th percentile for progressive passes received).
Torres MLS heatmap 2023Torres MLS heatmap 2022
He’s recreating his map from last year. There is a bias toward the right side of the pitch, but it’s clear that he’s going to drift all over the final third. He’s been started as a CAM, RM/RW, or part of a strike partnership. His versatility makes him dangerous. Considering how many issues Almada and ATL gave use with attacking our left side (before finishing attacks on our right side), we should be concerned.
Elsewhere in attack, you’ll find DP striker Ercan Kara, Jack Lynne, Moises Tablante, the injured Loyola, Gaston González, Ramiro Enrique, Duncan McGuire, Dagur Dan Þórhallsson, and Martín Ojeda. Neither Lynne nor Tablante has made a senior appearance this year and Lynne only had 3 appearances (for 4 minutes) last year. Lynn is currently out on loan.
Kara is a 27-year-old Austrian striker. He’s big at 6’3.5″ and 192 lbs. He’s in his 2nd season for Orlando having come over from Rapid Wien in the Austrian Bundesliga. He had 11 goals (1 PK) and 3 assists last year on 9.4 xG and 1.6 xAG. For as big as he is, he doesn’t have the number of headed goals you might expect. Of his 10 non-PK goals, only 3 were headers. Most were with the right foot, while one was with his left. The way to defend him, then, seems pretty simple (/s): force him off that right foot.
Kara started the first two games but did not start in Orlando’s game against DC or in their CCL games. I haven’t been able to find anything about these absences being related to injury, so it might be a form issue.
In Kara’s place, Enrique and McGuire have come in. Enrique is 21 and in his first season in MLS, having arrived from Banfield. He had 8 goals and 2 assists in 51 appearances for Banfield. McGuire is 22 and was selected in the most recent SuperDraft (#6 overall) from Creighton. From Orlando’s announcement about his signing:
McGuire is coming off a breakout year that earned him the 2022 MAC Hermann Trophy, an annual award given to college soccer’s best player. He set the Creighton single-season record for goals (23), picked up Second Team All-America honors, and helped propel his team to the College Cup.
I will say again: it’s exceedingly rare for a SuperDraft pick to get serious minutes. McGuire might be the exception. He has Orlando’s other league goal on the season. Enrique, meanwhile, has started both CCL games for them.
González (21), Þórhallsson (22), and Ojeda (24) are all first year MLS players. Orlando has really turned this roster over. González joins from CA Unión in the Argentina Primera. In 2021, González had 5 goals and 6 assists as a 19-year-old. On the year he has 2 appearances (1 start) with 0 goals or assists. In his 1 start, he appears to have played as a left wing-back.
Þórhallsson joins Orlando from the Norwegian side Mjøndalen. He has 3 appearances (2 starts) with 0 goals and an assist on the year. He’s been started in an attacking midfielder role behind a striker (or 2 strikers).
Finally, Ojeda joins Orlando from Godoy Cruz in Argentina. He made 50 appearances for Godoy, scoring 18 goals (2 PKs) and 12 assists over that time. This includes a 12-goal, 3-assist season in 2021. Ojeda has made 3 league appearances (1 start) so far. He was played as a CAM in this start. He played the same role in his other start against UANL in the first leg.
Ojeda was a $4.01M signing, so the expectations are high for him.
Ojeda Godoy Cruz heatmap from 2022
With Godoy Cruz, he shows a strong bias towards the right. I can’t speak on how exactly he was deployed with them.
Ojeda MLS heatmap from 2023
With Orlando, this bias has not shown up. It probably reflects his more central role for Orlando, though as his Godoy Cruz map shows, he will drift all over the pitch. If he starts, the interplay between him and Torres will be fascinating to watch.
Midfield
In the midfield, Orlando will deploy their last DP, Mauricio Pereyra, Felipe Martins, Wilfredo Rivera, César Araújo, Erick Gunera-Calix, Iván Angulo, Wilder Cartagena, and Shakur Mohammed. Mohammed was Orlando’s other high SuperDraft pick (#2 overall) but has yet to feature for the club. Rivera and Gunera-Calix also have yet to make a senior team appearance.
Felipe Martins joined on a free from Austin. He made 28 appearances for Austin, but only started 5 games. He scored once and had 2 assists. At 32, he’s probably done with being a consistent starter. In fact, you have to go back to 2019, when he was with Vancouver, for him to have made above 10 starts in a season. He has been in MLS since 2012, though, so he definitely knows the league.
Pereyra is the big name of this group. The 33-year-old Uruguayan is now in his 5th season with Orlando, having made 86 appearances (79 starts), including 32 appearances (31 starts) last year. Before Orlando, he was in the Russian Premier League with Krasnodar and was initially a goalscorer. In 2013-14, he scored 6 goals with 4 assists and followed that season up with a 9-goal, 1 assist season in 2014-15. Since then, though, he’s become more of a playmaker. With Orlando, he’s only scored 4 total goals, including just 1 last year. To be honest, he’s been a bit unlucky with his goal-scoring. He had a 2.6 xG in 2021 and a 2.9 xG last year. In each year he only scored once. This isn’t a crazy disparity, so I don’t think it points to a likely upshot of goals; it’s simply noteworthy. He had 7 assists in 2021 and 8 assists last year. He’s yet to get an assist this year, but history says those will come.
So far this year, Pereyra seems to be playing a bit further back than he was in 2022. That’s unsurprising considering the attacking midfield talent (Ojeda, Þórhallsson) they’ve brought in. Regardless of whether you consider him a CAM or CM, his penetrative passing numbers are excellent. He’s among the league leaders in progressive passing, passes into the penalty area, passes into the final third, and key passes. Additionally, he’s excellent when it comes to shot-creating actions. The percentiles below show that regardless of how you consider him (CAM or CM), his passing is elite.
Pereyra Passing Percentiles and Goal and Shot Creation Percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CAMs (left) and CMs (right)
Cartagena is in his 2nd season with Orlando, having joined last year. He only made 8 appearances (4 starts) but joined on loan from Ittihad Kalba in August. The loan is set to expire at the end of this year. Unlike most of Orlando’s other new arrivals, Cartagena is a veteran at 28 years old.
Cartagena has appeared in all 3 league matches for Orlando, starting 2. His role is to be a defensive balance to Orlando’s attacking talent. He does the job very well, as he’s a good tackler and interceptor of the ball.
Araújo and Angulo are both in their 2nd seasons with Orlando. Araújo made 31 appearances (28 starts) for Orlando last year. He’s never had a goal or an assist in his career. He’s appeared in all 3 league games so far but has only started 1. Meanwhile, Angulo joined in the summer of last year and made 9 appearances (5 starts), recording 2 assists. Angulo has appeared in all 3 league games but has made only 2 starts. Both started in the matchups with UANL. Angulo has started as the left wide player when Orlando is in a 4-2-3-1 and as a wingback when they are in a back 5.
Araújo’s job is to be cover, but I’m not sure he’s great at it (he’s not bad). His passing is good and safe (high-ish percentiles for pass completion overall and in the short/medium ranges). He’s not progressing the ball much, but that doesn’t need to be his job when you have someone like Pereyra.
Defensively, he’s a good tackler (83rd percentile), great against dribblers (97th percentile of dribblers tackled), and reads the game well (76th percentile for tackles plus interceptions). With that said, I think there’s a reason they brought in Cartagena. He does all of these things, but better. Araújo is only 21, so Cartagena has 7 years on him. It’s not a surprise that Cartagena would be more solid defensively at this point in their respective careers. Araújo isn’t a great CDM yet, but has the talent to be. It’s also important to note he’s started their two biggest games of the season against Tigres, which does show what the club thinks of him.
Angulo doesn’t have a history of goal contribution. His best season (goal-contribution-wise) was as an 18-year-old in the Colombian league, where he had 2 goals and 3 assists. This got him a move to Palmeiras in Brazil, but he never made an appearance. He got into 3 games with Botafogo before moving to Portimonense in the Portuguese league. He made 32 appearances (27 starts) for Portimonense, but only recorded 1 goal and 1 assist. Last year’s tally of 2 assists in MLS wasn’t bad, especially considering his limited playing time, however, you have to imagine teams are looking for more production from the wing than what he’s historically provided (is he their Jóźwiak?).
It’s a small sample size, but nothing jumps out in Angulo’s percentiles with the exception of his carry numbers. He was in the 91st percentile for carries into the final third and the 85th percentile for carries into the penalty area. He’s only in the 40th percentile for progressive carries, though, so it’s still an area of growth. It must be said that 6.1 90s is hardly enough time to accurately measure his ability.
Defense
Orlando lists 3 young defenders on their roster who have yet to make an appearance this year: Alexander Freeman, Thomas Williams, and Brandon Hackenberg. Of the 3, only Williams has ever had a senior appearance (4 apps, 2 starts last year).
There is a 4th defender, Antonio Carlos, who has yet to make an appearance for Orlando this year. Unlike the others, Carlos has been a key contributor for Orlando at center back over the past few years. He joined Orlando in 2020, having spent 3 years with Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. He made 36 appearances for Palmeiras. Since joining Orlando, Carlos has made 70 appearances, including 64 starts. He’s been out with an injury (yay MLS Availability Report not showing that!) picked up in the preseason. Orlando’s own fans note his absence’s effect on their ability to defend in the air:
Carlos’ most effective aerial season was in 2021, when he tied forward Daryl Dike for the team lead with 2.2 aerials won per game. Last year, with Dike in England, Carlos led the team for the second consecutive season with 1.9 aerials won per game, despite missing time with a hamstring injury.
This aerial ability is real too; it’s not just fan bias. Carlos is in the 74th percentile for aerials won, 89th percentile for aerials lost, and 99th percentile for percentage of aerials won. The other two primary CBs on this roster–Robin Jansson and Rodrigo Schlegel–are horrible. Jansson is in the 6th percentile for aerials won and the 9th percentile for percentage of aerials won. Schlegel is equally inept, as he’s in the 11th percentile of aerials won and 5th percentile of percentage of aerials won.
Charlotte FC currently lead MLS in open play crosses by a wide margin, with 78— 26 per game.
Last year's leader was the New England Revolution with 584— 17 per game. https://t.co/B55dFhEhP8
If there was ever a time when “cross and pray” might work, this is the game. It should be noted that Carlos has been back in training and has made the bench against both DC United and UANL, so there is a chance he plays Saturday. Let’s hope he needs a bit more time.
Carlos’ primary CB partner has been Jansson. Jansson is in his 5th season with Orlando and starts most of their games. Over this time, he’s appeared in 103 matches, starting 99 of them. He provides a little threat in front of goal, getting 4 goals over the past 2 seasons (2021 and 2022). 3 of those goals did come in 2021, so I’m not sure he’s someone that we need to be seriously concerned about, but it’s something to watch out for.
Jansson is a decent passer of the ball, especially when it comes to long passes. He’s in the 86th percentile for long pass completion percentage. This percentage comes on the back of him routinely trying these types of passes (63rd percentile for long passes attempted). He also likes to carry the ball out of the back, as he’s in the 89th percentile for take-ons attempted, the 92nd percentile for successful take-ons, and the 82nd percentile for progressive carries.
Schlegel has been the primary beneficiary of Carlos’ absence. He’s started all 3 games so far, though he did start quite frequently for Orlando over the past 2 years anyway (52 appearances, 39 starts over the 2021-2022 seasons). Schlegel is a good tackler (93rd percentile), especially against dribblers (96th percentile).
Abdi Salim was the 17th overall selection in the most recent SuperDraft. He’s played as a CB in 2 games for Orlando (both times when they were in a back 3 or 5 configuration). This being his first professional season, there’s not much data to look at.
Kyle Smith is a fullback turned center-back*, at least currently. He’s appeared in all 3 league games but has only started as part of a back 3 or 5. He did get into 29 games (14 starts) last year for Orlando, scoring 2 goals. He’s in his 5th season with Orlando, having made 98 appearances (63 starts), scoring 3 goals, and assisting once.
*Note: The regular caveats about formation apply here. I’m basing position designations on the lineups released by MLS. There’s every chance that they show a back 5 with Smith as a CB, but in reality, it was a back 4 with him at his usual fullback position.
To return to the aerial issue Orlando is having and Smith’s role in it. Smith is decent in the air for a fullback (87th percentile for aerials won, 40th percentile for percentage of aerials won). As a center back, though, his percentile for aerials won falls to 22nd. That’s not a surprise, but simply reinforces the idea that this is an area of weakness for them.
Luca Petrasso was with Toronto last year and deployed primarily as a left-back, though he has some designations of wing back and winger as well. He made 23 appearances (21 starts) for Toronto, getting 2 assists. He’s made 2 league appearances and 1 start this year for Orlando, though he did also start both legs in CCL.
Michael Halliday is a young (20) fullback for Orlando. He’s come up through their organization and is actually in his 4th season with the club. He’s made 15 appearances (6 starts) over the past 3 years. Although he made just 6 (0 starts) appearances for 50 minutes last year, that’s not really surprising. Last year–and in the previous 3 prior years–Orlando had Ruan as their starting RB. With Ruan now in DC, it seems Orlando is giving Halliday a legitimate shot.
He’s appeared in all 3 of Orlando’s league games, making 2 starts, and started in both legs of their UANL tie. Being such a young player, there’s not much data to go on, but the fact that Orlando felt comfortable moving on from Ruan probably says it all.
The final defender that has appeared for Orlando is Rafael Santos. He’s in his first season with Orlando having joined from Coritiba in the Brazilian league. Over the past 3 years he’s bounced around a bit: Ponte Preta in 2021; Cruzeiro and Coritiba in 2022; Orlando currently. He’s made 55 appearances (47 starts) over this time. He has 3 career goals and 4 assists to his name, all back in 2021 with Ponte Preta.
Goalkeeping
Orlando has 4 keepers on their roster: Javier Otero, Mason Stajduhar, Adam Grinwis, and Pedro Gallese. Otera has never made a senior appearance and Grinwis has only done so in 2 years: 2021 (2 starts) and 2018 (5 starts). Stajduhar appears to be the backup. He made 2 starts last year and 5 starts in 2021.
The #1 is Gallese. The 33-year-old is off to a strong start in his 4th season with Orlando. He’s made 76 starts for the club, including 32 last year. In terms of raw numbers, last year was not a good year for Gallese. He allowed 47 goals (1.47 goals per 90), only had a 65.9% save percentage, and had a -2.2 PSxG+/-.
Until this year, the goals per 90 have actually increased for Gallese each year since he joined Orlando: 1.05 GA90 in 2020 (19 starts), 1.36 GA90 in 2021 (22 starts), and 1.47 GA90 last year. So far this year, he’s bounced back in a big way with a 0.33 GA90 in th league. He almost single-handedly kept Orlando in their games with Tigres by making a ton of really good saves. Gallese’s save percentage in 73.2% in 2020 and 70.8% in 2021. It’s a ridiculous 92.3% this year.
His PSxG+/- was okay in both 2020 (+2.4) and 2021 (+3.0). This year it’s already at +1.5. Now there is still plenty of time for this number to come down (Kahlina began last year with a strong PSxG+/- but finished in the negatives). Gallese is currently 4th in the league in PSxG+/-.
Gallese Goalkeeping percentiles vs. 2022 MLS GKsGallese Advanced Goalkeeping percentiles vs. 2022 MLS GKs
There’s not much that jumps out in his percentiles. He’s clearly not a bad keeper, but I tend to trust history over a 3-5 game stretch. Maybe this is a career year for Gallese, or maybe it’s a good run. If I had to bet, I’d say he comes down to earth a bit as the year goes on. Let’s hope that starts Saturday.
Conclusion
Desperate times indeed for Charlotte. Many will be calling this a “must-win” for the club and, while I see the logic behind that, I don’t know that I fully agree. Road games are tough in any league. Charlotte is historically very bad on the road. You offer me a draw right now and I’m biting your hand off for it.
The main source of hope for Charlotte probably comes in Orlando’s midweek CCL fixture. How much–if any–has that game fatigued them, both physically and mentally. With the crazy, and ultimately disappointing end, you have to hope a lot.
The second place to pin some hope is that Carlos is at least one more game away from being able to start. Otherwise, their biggest weakness gets patched. One player will not solve their aerial issues, but he will certainly provide a big boost.
From a Charlotte perspective, let’s not beat around the bush. Świderski on the right has not, is not, and will not work. If he’s going to start, Karol needs to be returned to the center of the pitch; it’s a game and a half late for this.
Wing production continues to be an issue for this team. The national media has latched onto Jóźwiak’s lack of production. While I think some of the criticism is unfair (I think he’s been one of our better players on the season), it’s not completely unfair. Charlotte has a goal differential of -6, has scored 1 goal, and was noncompetitive against Atlanta. Jóźwiak has not scored a goal in 92 league games. I’m a fan, but the reality is we need end production from him.
Instead of Świderski on the right, it’s time for Vargas to get the start. I’m a staunch Gaines supporter, but Vargas has earned a start. Each time he’s seen the pitch, he looks bright.
In midfield, while I’m dying to see Nuno Santos get a start, I don’t think it happens. I think we’ll see Świderski, Westwood, and Jones in the midfield.
Editor’s note: for information about how many of us feel about Jones at this current moment, check out our Wednesday pod. I’ll simply speak for myself here and say he was exceedingly bad, in my opinion.
The Bronico experiment at LB is not going well. I understand what CL wants from Bronico in that position, but Atlanta’s attacks all seemed to target that side. Wiley’s two goals were moves that ended on the right of our defense, but the thrusts of those attacks came on the left. The easiest answer to our backline issues is to buy a left back. If that is not going to happen (and I’m pessimistic it will), it feels like it’s either growing pains with Brandt or an uninspiring play from Mora/Afful.
On the other flank, Byrne has not been good. I refuse to believe that his skills have atrophied over a single off-season to the point he’s unplayable. I don’t know what has happened, but I believe the answer lies in how CL has been deploying his fullbacks. I don’t see a world in which Lindsey starts.
This is indeed Lindsey (left), Byrne (right; from English Championship). I've said this before, but the centrality of Byrne is why he plays. This is not to say Lindsey *couldn't* do it, but that he hasn't been asked to. https://t.co/RPszXTfk15
At center back, there is really no reason to change. I don’t think either of Tuiloma or Malanda were great against Atlanta, but that could be said of the entire team. Neither had obvious errors like they did against St. Louis, but both were culpable, to varying degrees, in the goals that were scored. Malanda was especially bad on the first goal.
Sisniega had a rough go of it, too. I’m not sure any of the goals can be fully placed on him, but I would like my goalie to save one of them. Sometimes you just need an unlikely save to keep you in the game and Pablo wasn’t able to do that for us. Is this fair? Probably not, but it’s how I feel. The Araújo goal is the one I really want him to save. I tend to be unfairly critical of goalies, especially when they get beat near-post.
This has not been the start of the season any of us wanted. It’s still too early to declare this season dead, but results need to start happening. Orlando is a good team, but they’re not elite (yet; the talent is real). They’ve had a ton of roster turnover in the past couple of years and started a number of young players who are new to the league. I think there’s a lot of talent in that squad, but I don’t know that they outclass us to the point that it’s impossible to get a positive result. Containing Torres and preventing Pereyra from dictating the game will be key.
Three games into the season, Charlotte FC sit bottom of the Eastern Conference with the worst goal difference in the entirety of MLS. They are one of three teams to be on 0 points and have a worse goal difference than each of the other teams, Houston and Montreal.
It is clear that things have not gone well so far for the 2nd year team, and there was no better example of that than the first half of Saturdays game. Charlotte conceded 3 goals in this half and offered no real structured attack in reply against an impressive Atlanta United team.
Though the fixes for this would not seem simple, the fact is that, at this time, Head Coach Christian Lattanzio is not making things any easier for himself. There are some solutions available to him that we will discuss here, with a particular focus on that first half against Atlanta.
Right now, Charlotte have big questions when it comes to both of the full back spots. Whilst Nathan Byrne playing right back is no surprise, his underwhelming start to the season has raised eyebrows. Meanwhile, Brandt Bronico at left back is something nobody could’ve seen coming, especially after Joseph Mora played a solid game in Charlotte’s opening fixture against New England.
The answer for this decision comes back to one of Lattanzio’s core principles, something we’ve often seen ever since his first game in charge against New York Red Bulls: the inverting of his full backs
Charlotte vs. RBNY, 6/11/22
In Nathan Byrne and Brandt Bronico, Lattanzio will likely feel that he has his best pairing of players for this role – comfortability on the ball paired with the athleticism to cover the spaces they vacate to invert.
Saturday’s game was the first chance to see each of them perform those roles together, contrasting their debut as a full back pair against St Louis, where importantly they played as fairly traditional full backs.
Against Atlanta, Charlotte displayed probably the most complex build up structure in all of Christian Lattanzio’s time as Head Coach. Though the team still had a 2-4 structure that was seen against St Louis, the way this came together was done very differently.
Charlotte at St. Louis, 3/4/23
Here we see this setup in the form it would be expected – the centre backs making up the 2 and the full backs pushed up alongside a double pivot to make the 4. Now compare how this setup is constructed to how it was done against Atlanta.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23
Here, we see a 2-4 structure made up of the same players, except now Jóźwiak has come from his left wing position to play in Bronico’s role, whilst Bronico occupies a more advanced central space as we can see on the end right of the screen.
See also this clip below of how, when the ball moves to the other side of the field, Świderski and Byrne move into these same areas relative to how Jóźwiak and Bronico are structured but on the right side (i.e., Byrne taking up a position higher than Świderski).
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23
It is hard to know exactly why Lattanzio opted for this change, but I suspect that he has 3 core ideas of how he wants his build up to look:
– a base of 2 – a double pivot – inverted full backs
The ‘inverted full backs’ part of this is obviously the major change from St. Louis to Atlanta, but it is also the part that created problems for Charlotte, especially when it came to their first goal conceded on Saturday.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23, first goal
Though the positioning from Malanda does not help, Charlotte’s rest defense from this structure is still incredibly flawed even with correct established position from the centre backs. The hyper-centrality of this structure is always going to create situations where the opposition will have an extra man over in ‘transition-like’ moments. We saw this right from the beginning of the game.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23, second goal
Again, we see Malanda play way over on the ball-side to squeeze that area, and even with right back in position to help, as Byrne is here, the threat of an unmarked player still exists.
This structure doesn’t just present issues defensively, but also when Charlotte are in attack. With the ball in their possession and the full backs inverted, combined with inverting wingers who want to cut inside, you are left with no real byline threat or predictable attack from wide areas.
Take a situation like this one with Świderski and Byrne:
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23
This would typically be a classic situation where the inverted winger would have a full back overlapping to put the player marking the winger in jeopardy as to whether he should stay with his man or follow the overlapping run. In a situation like that, the decision from the defender would inform what decision the winger on the ball makes.
Instead, in this instance we see that the right back is actually in position to play the ball wide from the central area, then shows for the ball again inside before starting an overlapping run. By this point he is coming from too deep and has waited too long, allowing the defense to re-gain their structure.
Some would call this a failed experiment and revert back to what was done against St Louis. While I do agree that this system can not be a long term solution for Charlotte, I do think that of Lattanzio’s ideals for playing, full back inversion takes quite a high priority given how often we have seen it before in his time as coach.
Instead of completely abandoning the idea of fullback inversion, a compromise must be made elsewhere. I believe it’s time for Charlotte to get to a 3-2 structure in buildup that would help them both in and out of possession.
Firstly, a major benefit of a back 3 build up set up is how much it can help your rest defense. A simple way to explain this would be to ask: why are transition moments so threatening in the first place?
The main benefit of playing in transition is the space that it allows you to play in. In a 2-base structure you can quickly by-pass a cluttered midfield in transition if you win the ball high and directly attack a large amount of space where the defense has only 2 outfield players in between the ball and the goal (rather than 3 if you build up in a 3-2 structure). A simple numbers game to help you defensively is clearly offered by setting up with 3 defenders at the base of your in-possession-structure.
In possession, a 3-2 structure gives you a much better chance to get the ball into advanced wide areas. Having 3 players at the beginning of the structure means all angles into those areas are available, and, with only 2 players ahead, this means that the access into these areas is more direct. Consider how much Charlotte struggled to get the ball to those areas on Saturday, and how easy Austin FC are able to do it here from a base 3 structure
Austin vs. St. Louis, 2/25/23
Considering how much investment Charlotte have put into their wide areas, it would be wise to try put them in as best a position as possible. Speaking of which…
A major part of this tactical change has to be the implementation of Karol Świderski back into a central role, and redefining what that central role is.
Putting Świderski back into a central area is a simple first step fix, as we have seen him in the 10 role plenty of times before and know what he brings as the team’s best player. Redefining that role will be much more important.
Take this example from the NYCFC game last season, when Świderski is in the 10 role.
Charlotte vs. NYCFC, 9/10/22
In this setup, Świderski was given a true ‘free role’ to drop deep and facilitate build up, occupying the space in the double pivot to allow one of the original holding midfielder license to get forward. See also how this helps Fuchs, who was playing as an outside centre back in a base 3 in this passage*, get forward into a good position with the ball, link up with Świderski who is still free to relate with other players, then offer a byline threat knowing he has sufficient cover in defense.
*Note: remember, Fuchs is started as a LB in a back 4 base formation this game (4-2-3-1). In this passage of play he is part of a back 3.
Contrast what happens in that above clip with the Charlotte setup now. Currently, we have a hyper-positional setup with no freedom given to Shinyashiki in the 10 role to relate with any of his teammates in build up.
Charlotte vs. Atlanta, 3/11/23
The restriction of Świderski out wide, paired with the restriction of the 10 role itself to whoever plays it, shows the merging of both tactical ideas as a structure and tactical instructions per player. Hyper-positionally in effective systems produces the most elite football we currently have in the game, but at other levels, there must sometimes be a merging of structure around a cerebral talent. This type of talent is what Charlotte have in the Polish international.
In a 3-2 setup, more space would be offered in that 2nd phase of build up for a number 10 to drop in to link the play. The link-up play would be seen both in terms of dropping into wide areas to create triangles and in giving one of the double pivot a chance to get forward by looking to drop in centrally
Using Charlotte’s personnel from that Atlanta game, here is an example of how that 3-2 structure in-possession* could look.
In possession formation
*Note: Again, this is not the starting, base formation. That would still most probably be listed as a 4-2-3-1, as shown below, or 4-3-3. The above is what we would look like in possession.
Base formation
Here in this lineup we have: – Direct ball access to the wingers. – Świderski playing centrally with options around him to relate with. – Sufficient rest defense cover with a base of 3 and 5 good athletes for their roles. – A box midfield which gives Charlotte the chance to control the game, both in possession and in transition (should we turn the ball over in the opposition third).
This Charlotte team has a lot of talent, and results will likely turn soon anyway as a result of that. But to give the team the best chance long term to have success, this is a switch that should be strongly considered.
I’ve seen a lot of panic amongst the Charlotte faithful this week. Starting with 2 losses–one against a new expansion club–will do that. However, I want to provide some hope.
First, last year, Charlotte started with 3 straight losses, getting outscored 6-1 and 4-0 in the first 2 games. We’ve only been outscored 4-1 so far this year! Progress!
In all seriousness, though, even with the poor start last year, Charlotte still managed 42 points and barely missed out on the playoffs. Now, some among you may then blame this poor start for us missing out. There is an argument for that. However, I would point to the run of games in late August-early September as what did us in.
We lost 2-1 to Orlando at home on 8/21, followed that up with a 2-0 loss at home to Toronto on 8/27, and then lost on the road to Cincinnati 2-0 on 9/3. Cincinnati and Orlando both finished above us, with the latter getting the 7th seed with 48 points. Toronto finished 13th in the East last year on 34 points.
The point is, a run of bad games can happen. You can’t dig too deep a hole, but I’m simply not panicked yet. I’m not alone in that amongst my colleagues here at The Crown Cast. Unlike Joseph Lowery, who has us as an 8/10 on the panic meter, Logan and I are only at a 4. Justin is a bit higher at a 5, while Euan is lower at a 3. A blowout loss might change things but as of now, I’m feeling ok.
Is good Atlanta back?
Atlanta is currently 4th in the East on 4 points, having won (2-1 at home against San Jose) and drawn (1-1 against Toronto at home) in each of their first two games.
It’s too early to say if this Atlanta team will be back to its normal standard, but I think the indications are good. They’ve turned over the roster, kept talent from last year, and added some exciting talent this year.
Lineups
Atlanta vs. San Jose, 2/25Atlanta vs. Toronto, 3/4
The first thing to notice is that the only change made was up top at striker where Jackson Conway was replaced by Miguel Berry. What’s really worrying about this is two of Atlanta’s big offseason signings–Derrick Etienne, Jr. (I wanted him badly for Charlotte) and Giorgos Giakoumakis (new DP striker)–have yet to start. Giakoumakis came off the bench against Toronto for 31 minutes, while Etienne has come off the bench in both games.
Caleb Wiley, who is listed as a defender on both Atlanta’s site and FBref, has started both games. Last year he saw a good amount of action (26 appearances, 18 starts) as a 17-year-old. According to FBref, he was all over the place, including LB, LW, CM, DM, and WB. Etienne played really well last year for Columbus on the left. I expect him to take that position over at some point soon.
Passing isn’t good but also being compared w/CMs. Think he is flattered by being compared to CMs for his attack numbers but 9 Gs and 6 As on 7.1 xG and 4.2 xA is very good. Biggest issue is he’s another left sided player but does have history of playing right side pic.twitter.com/7EFidL5V6H
What I think is most impressive about this team, at least on paper, is the depth. We’ll get into their players in a bit, but they have a lot of young talent, veteran leadership, and experience across almost every position.
Injury Report
Last week’s MLS Availability Report had 4 players out for Atlanta: midfielder Ozzie Alonso (ACL recovery) and forwards Tyler Wolff (shoulder), Machop Chol (hamstring), and Giakoumakis (visa). Obviously, Giakoumakis’ visa issue was settled by the game last weekend as he featured.
I wouldn’t expect to see Alonso in this game. He’s a good player and was a big loss for them last season but he is also 37 years old now. That recovery will take time.
As far as Chol and Wolff go, I don’t know their status. Chol only saw 80 minutes of game time over 6 appearances last year, so his inclusion or absence is probably not noteworthy.
Wolff got into 5 games last year (4 starts) but failed to score or record an assist. He also had a short loan spell to SK Beveren in the Belgian Second Division. He was recalled in January having only made 5 appearances (0 starts) for only 41 minutes. He didn’t appear in a game for Atlanta after an April 2nd match against DC. I’m not sure why. Wolff is a talented player, but Atlanta has reinforced their squad. He’ll have a battle for time.
Editor’s note: More on this further down, but looks unlikely that Matheus Rossetto will be playing for them.
Attack
Josef Martínez is no more in Atlanta. Having parted ways (in a somewhat ugly fashion), Atlanta loses a great of their young club. I imagine he will remain a great for that club, though. In his stead, Atlanta turns to Thiago Almada to run the attack.
The 21-year-old Argentinian is a monster talent. He only played in one game for Argentina at the World Cup, and only got in for 7 minutes. But the fact that a 21-year-old MLS player even made it on that squad speaks volumes about his talent (and the growth of this league). It’s not bold to say that he will not be long in this league. Europe will come calling.
Last year Almada made an immediate impact for Atlanta, getting into 29 games (25 starts) and recording 6 goals (6.0 xG) and 7 assists (7.6 xGA). The goals and assists are pretty much bang on those expected numbers, which is pretty impressive. He’s already at 2 goals (0.5 xG) and 1 assist (0.2 xGA) for the season, including single-handedly winning the game for Atlanta against SJ in STOPPAGE TIME:
Thiago Almada will be MLS’ most lucrative departure in the near future.
The 21-year-old Argentine World Cup winner delivered a 93’ game tying Golazo & a 99’ game winning free kick to welcome the MLS season for Atlanta in front of almost 70k fans. Gamer 🇦🇷pic.twitter.com/6ZERrIqW9W
The man can and will take over games. These goals are ridiculous and help explain his poor xG for this year, but if he can score these types of goals, he will score more common ones too. The xG from last year doesn’t show luck with his goal-scoring or contributing.
Almada heatmap, 2022 MLS seasonAlmada heatmap, 2023 MLS season
These heatmaps could be used as an exemplar for a CAM. He’s all over the opponent’s half of the pitch and will venture into the box as well. There is a bit of a left-sided bias, so Malanda, Byrne, and whoever is playing as the 6 and right-sided 8 will need to be aware.
Almada wants to dominate the ball, as he should. He was at 73.5 touches/90 last year and is at a ridiculous 97.0 this year. You’re not going to keep him off the ball. The trick is to contain him when he has it.
I mean, you just kind of have to laugh at the ridiculousness of these percentiles. This is Almada vs. 2022 MLS CAMs/wingers. Can you say elite? Sure, there are odd issues. The low touches in the attacking penalty are surprising, but he also doesn’t carry into the penalty area much. That then seems to be a feature of his play, not a deficiency. Honestly, the fact that he’s going to score 6-8 goals, if not more, but also pass this well is terrifying.
Atlanta bought Almada for $15.34M; they are going to sell him for a lot more. I would be surprised if, by the end of the summer window, he’s still in Atlanta.
Elsewhere in the attack, you’ll find the aforementioned Etienne, Giakoumakis Conway, and Berry, as well as Luis Araújo.
Etienne had 9 goals and 6 assists in 33 appearances (25 starts) last year for Columbus. As a wing player, that is excellent. Whereas Almada will stay out of the box, Etienne loves to be in there. He was in the 94th percentile for touches in the attacking penalty area/90 vs. 2022 MLS CAMs/wingers.
Giakoumakis is their new DP striker who they acquired for $4.22M from Celtic. Giakoumakis absolutely lit up the Eredivisie for a year with VVV-Venlo. During the 2020-21 season, he made 30 appearances (30 starts) for VVV-Venlo, scoring 26 goals and getting 1 assist. A whopping 8 of those goals were penalties, however, 18 non-PK goals are nothing to sneeze at. This performance got him his move to Celtic where he had a promising first year. In 2021-22, he made 21 appearances (11 starts), scoring 13 goals (12 non-PK goals) and getting 1 assist. His playing time bottomed out this year, though. He made 19 appearances but only had 4 starts (698 total minutes). He did get 6 goals and an assist during this time.
His heatmaps above (left: 2022/23 with Celtic, right: 2021/22 with Celtic) show a guy who likes to be in the penalty box around the goal. There are goals in his boots; I don’t doubt he’ll get quite a few with Atlanta this year.
While Conway and Berry both got the starts to begin the year, both are bit players. In the case of Conway, he’s still very young (21) while Berry is a bit of a journeyman already (although he’s only 25). Conway has yet to score a goal in MLS, but was prolific last year for Atlanta 2 (11 goals and an assist in 25 appearances). Berry, meanwhile, scored 8 goals for Columbus in 2021 in 18 appearances (9 starts). Since then, he’s made 16 appearances (13 starts) for Columbus (2022), 14 appearances (8 starts) for DC (2022), and 2 appearances (1 start) for Atlanta. He has scored 2 goals (both for Columbus) in all of those appearances.
Finally, there is Araújo. He joined Atlanta in 2021 for $11.50M from Lille in Ligue 1. He was 24 when he joined. Believe it or not, the year previous (2020-21), it was Lille who won Ligue 1 (not PSG).
Araújo spent 4 years at Lille, making 108 appearances and 54 starts. He scored 14 goals and had 8 assists, including 4 goals and 2 assists in his final season with them (when he made 27 appearances and 17 starts for the league winners). Yes, Atlanta signed a guy, entering his prime, from a title-winning team in one of Europe’s Big 5.
In his first year with Atlanta, Araújo made 15 appearances (13 starts), scoring 4 goals and getting 3 assists. Last year, he made 28 appearances (26 starts), scoring 4 goals and getting 5 assists. So far this year, he has played the full 90 of both games but is yet to get on the scoresheet.
Araújo is an interesting case because there is some belief he hasn’t quite lived up to the billing. In some ways, I get that argument, but, also, he’s never scored more than 5 goals in a season in his career (and that was in 2017-18). He is constantly between 2-4 goals and 2-3 assists per year. Whether that kind of return should be viewed as a disappointment for a wing DP is up to the reader. Based on his track record, though, I think that’s about what should have been expected of him.
To be honest, I’m not sure why he came here. I’m not a serious follower of the French league. It would seem he would have had options to remain in Europe if Lille were looking to offload him. Perhaps there weren’t? Or perhaps Atlanta offered the best deal? If anyone knows, I’d love to hear it. Regardless, Araújo will play on the right of Atlanta’s attack. Once Etienne and Gaikoumakis find their way into the starting lineup, Atlanta will boast one of the best front 4s in MLS (at least on paper).
Midfield
Atlanta’s FBref page lists 5 midfielders: Franco Ibarra, Matheus Rossetto, Amar Sejdic, Ajani Fortune, and the aforementioned Almada. For reasons that are hopefully obvious, I have included Almada in the “Attack” section. The official MLS site lists a further 6 midfielders: Ezequiel Barco, Marcelino Moreno, Santiago Sosa, Erik Centeno, the injured Alonso, and Etienne, who has also been included in the “Attack.”
Barco, Moreno, and Centeno are all out on loan. Sosa has yet to make an appearance this year, though he made 21 last year. He hasn’t made an appearance for the club since 10/1 against NE. During the game, he used a homophobic slur against the Revolution earning him a fine and a 3-match suspension. He’s currently listed as “unavailable” on Atlanta’s site, so I’m assuming it’s still fallout from his use of the slur. He didn’t make the bench for either of the first two matches. Fortune is a 20-year-old who has yet to make an appearance for the club.
The two starters in both games have been Ibarra and Rossetto, with Sejdic coming off the bench in both games (for a total of 12 minutes). Sejdic did play a lot for Atlanta last year (23 appearances, 18 starts), but some of that was due to injury. He’s a good depth to have and will probably push for a starter’s position. Ibarra made 20 appearances (11 starts) last year, getting one assist. Rossetto started 19 games (24 total appearances) and also had one assist. Rossetto does have a goal on the year, but neither is in the team to score.
Rossetto has been with Atlanta since 2020 and has made 62 appearances (46 starts). He’s an excellent buildup passer, as his percentiles show:
Rossetto passing percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs
Yeah, that’s basically everything you want from a deep-lying playmaker. Additionally, he likes to dominate the ball (80.90 touches/90) and is able to carry it well (96th percentile for progressive carrying distance). Defensively, he’s nothing to write home about but does like to regain the ball up the pitch (77th percentile for tackles in the attacking 3rd). He’s not bad defensively, but I’d label him as below-average overall.
Ibarra is the yin to Rossetto’s yang. The 21-year-old Argentinian arrived in Atlanta in 2021 as a 19-year-old. He immediately started playing in the first team, making 16 appearances and 9 starts. Last year he made 20 appearances and had 11 starts. At only 5’8.5″ and 152 lbs, Ibarra doesn’t fit the mold of a defensive destroyer, but he is.
Ibarra defensive percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CMs
It’s clear that Ibarra is in this team to clean up any attacks. These numbers, especially for a (then) 20-year-old, are superb. Unlike Rossetto, he’s not a good passer (56th percentile for passes completed, 49th percentile for progressive passing distance, 47th percentile for total passing distance) nor is he great on the ball (33rd percentile for take-ons attempted, 42nd percentile for carries, 3rd percentile for progressive carries). He doesn’t have to be, though. Soccer is about balance and Atlanta has it in this midfield pairing.
With attackers like Almada and Araújo and passers like Rossetto, you don’t need another offensive-minded player. You need someone who will retain possession, regain possession, and snuff out the danger. Ibarra most certainly does that.
Sejdic, who has come off the bench so far this year, is a good balance of Rossetto and Ibarra. He’s a better passer than Ibarra, but only an above-average one. He’s a really good defender, but not quite as good as Ibarra. As a player to see a game out, he’s perfect. As a player to fill in for either starter, he’s a great option. If Rossetto has to sit, you’d lose some passing ability in the midfield but the defensive nous would be incredibly high. If he had to replay Ibarra, the defensive drop would be minimal but you would add some passing range. I’m a bit jealous of this trio.
Editor’s note: It appears that Rossetto is likely to miss the match. While I believe that this will be a big miss for Atlanta, their fans very much disagree. In the words of many of their fans, he’s “mid.”
Unfortunately, none of them in this thread could give me a good reason for this belief. I was just told either 1) he passes sideways (which the above numbers show is not true; 82nd in progressive passes is the antithesis of “just passing sideways”) and 2) “trust me, bro.” That kind of argument is the one that makes me most upset. I’m willing to admit that I have missed something with Rossetto and that I am perhaps overrating him. I need a better reason than an “eye test” without actual analysis.
Defense
There was a time last year when Atlanta and Charlotte were both fielding an Alan Franco. Alas, our Franco has long departed (the club, not the Earth) and Atlanta has also moved theirs on. To replace Franco’s 31 starts at center back, Atlanta has signed Luis Abrams from Granada, though he only has one appearance off the bench for 11 minutes. Abrams spent the past 2 seasons on loan at Cruz Azul in Liga MX, making 25 appearances (18 starts).
In reality, Abram isn’t the one who will be replacing Franco; Juan José Sánchez and Miles Robinson will. Sánchez is in his 2nd year with Atlanta, having joined from UANL in Liga MX. He made 17 appearances (16 starts) last year and scored an amazing 6 goals. Considering those are the only goals of his 6 season career, I don’t know that I would expect a repeat of them. Robinson is in his 7th season with the club, having made 98 appearances (87 starts). He only got into 9 games (8 starts) last season after having 26 appearances in 2021 due to an Achilles tendon injury. Thankfully, he appears to have fully recovered from that injury.
Robinson is a good passer from the back (82nd percentile for passes completed, 95th percentile for progressive passes, and 73rd percentile for key passes). He’s not a great long-range passer (45th percentile for long passes completed), but he also doesn’t attempt that many of them (46th percentile for long passes attempted). Defensively, he’s tough to get around (93rd percentile for challenges lost) and has good positioning (99th percentile for blocks, 82nd percentile for shots blocked, 98th percentile for passes blocked). Sánchez is just an average passer but shows a similar ability to read the game (88th percentile for blocks, 63rd percentile for shots blocked, 92nd percentile for passes blocked). Neither is overly threatening in the air (Robinson: 68th percentile of aerials won; Sánchez: 77th percentile in aerials won), but both are serviceable.
Abram looks like a stereotypical depth (probably 4th choice) center-back. Nothing jumps out in his percentiles (in his case being compared to 2022/23 Liga MX CBs) except that he’s terrible in the air (1st percentile for aerials won).
The other defender in this center-back equation is George Campbell. The 21-year-old American has yet to appear in a game this year, but got into 35 over the past 2 seasons, including 20 appearances last year. While he’s mainly been deployed as a CB, he has had a couple of games in the midfield (in a pinch). To me, he would appear to be their 3rd choice with Abram as depth.
Atlanta has some really good and interesting pieces at fullback. The two starters are Andrew Gutman and Brooks Lennon, while Aiden McFadden (0 appearances this year, 11 last year) and Ronald Hernández (0 appearances this year, 13 last year) provide depth.
Gutman and Lennon are the kinds of fullbacks Charlotte fans are clamoring for, but not the types that I think Lattanzio is looking for. Just look at these maps:
Gutman heatmap 2022Lennon heatmap 2022
My god, is Lennon even a fullback or just another winger? The answer is winger, as Araújo very much likes to come inside. These types of bombarding fullbacks are what I think most fans expect to see, but as I talked about on Twitter, that’s not what CL is looking for (these are decently long threads there, so check out the full things if you have interest).
To add some context to the Mora/Afful/Bronico LB debate. Let's look at some heatmaps. 🧵
If Bronico is a LB that moves into the midfield when in possession, all of a sudden Westwood isn’t only CDM. Discussed this possibility yesterday with @Stillness_Speed who talked about how last year we created a box midfield at times under CL, but haven’t done so yet this year
Last year was Gutman’s first in Atlanta. He made 25 appearances (22 starts), scoring 4 times and getting 1 assist. Fun fact: Gutman began his professional career with Charlotte in the USL Championship back in 2019.
Lennon is in his 4th season with Atlanta, making 82 appearances (73 starts) during this time. He has 4 goals and 14 assists for Atlanta, including a 2-goal, 6-assist season last year.
These guys both like to get down the sidelines. Coupled with Rossetto and Almada’s passing ability, it makes for dangerous situations. Atlanta is currently leading the league in possession at 63.5%. With the way they push these fullbacks up, that’s no surprise. If they don’t have the ball, they’re at serious risk of the counter. Charlotte is going to need to be smart, decisive, and quick with the ball when in transition.
Goalkeeping
Old–and I use that term literally–friend Brad Guzan continues to man the sticks for Atlanta. Behind him is his geriatric companion Quentin Westberg (36), who was acquired for free from Toronto. Clément Diop, 29, was also acquired on a free from New England. Diop never appeared for NE last year and made just 3 appearances for Miami. Westberg, meanwhile, made 10 appearances for Toronto in each of the past 2 seasons. He did play a few games in the French Ligue 2 (13 starts for Auxerre in 2018-19 being the most), so, as a backup, he’s not a terrible option.
Guzan is obviously meant to be the starter. Like Robinson above, Guzan ruptured his Achilles last year, missing most of the year (he only had 7 starts last year). Now in his 7th season with Atlanta United, the former Aston Villa keeper is…okay.
The raw numbers still look decent: 1.32 goals allowed/90 (GA90) in 2022; 1.00 GA90 in 2021; 1.30 GA90 in 2020; 1.26 GA90 in 2019. The advanced metrics aren’t so kind. Over these 5 years, he’s had 2 seasons in the positive: 2019 when his PSxG+/- was +0.4, and 2021 when it was legitimately good at +4.9. Otherwise, he’s been in the negative including years of -1.9 (2020), -1.1 (2022), and -0.5 so far this year. Now, he’s not terrible by any stretch but he’s a 38-year-old goalkeeper. A decline is normal and to be expected. On a good team, he’s still a fine option.
Where he does still excel is in his reading of the game. Fair warning that due to his injury, last year’s percentile ranks do constitute a small sample size. With that said, he was in the 62nd percentile of crosses faced, but the 96th percentile for crosses stopped and the 99th percentile for crosses stopped percentage. This shouldn’t worry us Charlotte fans at all since our crossing is so terrible that we weren’t going to score that route anyway.
Conclusion
Saturday is not a game that has me confident. Almada is so much better than I thought. On paper, Ibarra and Rossetto form a perfectly complimentary midfield pivot. Araújo is good on the right wing. Both their fullbacks are really good going forward. They dominate possession. They haven’t even started Etienne or Giakoumakis yet. In some ways getting them right now might be a slightly good thing, as Giakoumakis might still not be ready to start for them. On the other hand, I’m not sure how much it’s going to matter.
Against San Jose, Atlanta had 20 shots with 5 shots on goal. Against Toronto, they had 16 shots with 6 shots on goal. That’s 36 shots and 11 shots on goal in two games. Charlotte is at 21 shots and 8 shots on goal for their 2 games. Atlanta dominated possession in each of these games (60.4% against SJ, 66.7% against TOR). Against Toronto, they made 619 passes with a 90% passing accuracy. I’m going to say that again: 90% passing accuracy on 619 passes.
Let’s also not forget that they’ve only allowed 2 goals on the season. San Jose scored 52 goals last year (10th in the league), while Toronto scored 48 (13th in the league). These are not slouches on offense. Yes, Toronto was missing Insigne, which can’t be ignored, but the game plan of Atlanta seems clear. Dominate possession, pass the ball around, and let the attackers eventually win.
I was much more pessimistic about this game when Rossetto was going to play (though I can’t say I’m optimistic…). First, I do believe he’s a good player, especially for the system they are playing, regardless of what Atlanta fans have told me. Second, it seems that they will not just be plugging Sejdić into the system in his place. In Jones’ tweet, he mentions that ATL’s coach Pineda said they are not “set up for two 6s” without Rossetto. This would indicate to me that Rossetto’s absence might also necessitate a change in formation/tactics. If so, it’s always a good thing to me when a team is forced off of their first choice gameplan.
On the Charlotte side of things, Lattanzio has come out and said that the Bronico experiment at LB will continue.
Lattanzio said Bronico at left back is not a one week experiment. Expect to see him there again.
This is good news to me. I’m hoping we see some tactical complexity come into the squad as he learns the role. For this week, it’ll be a tough challenge for him. Atlanta is a good attacking team.
I don’t expect many changes to the team we saw against St. Louis, though I am hoping for 2.
First, I need Świderski to be back in the middle of the pitch. RW did not work for him. On that wing, I do think I would give Vargas the start. He’s looked so bright to start this season; it feels deserved. While I do want Nuno to start, I’m not sure CL is there yet. A midfield of Świderski-Westwood-DJ is the next best option.
I expect Malanda and Tuiloma to bounce back from their mistakes against STL. That bad pass is the only time I can remember Malanda putting a foot wrong. Tuiloma was unlucky, as he did everything but the timing of his jump correctly. The big piece in the backline is Byrne at RB. He was so good last year in his first appearances for the club. This team needs him to get back to that level. We can’t be trying to figure out both fullback positions at the same time.
On Saturday, Charlotte travels to the new kids on the block: St. Louis City SC. The coverage around STL has frustrated a lot of Charlotte fans; there seems to have been a much more positive narrative around them than us. You can even look at Fox Soccer’s (now deleted) Tweet that simply ignores the existence of Charlotte.
Personally, I don’t care that much. St. Louis can be the darlings of the media (even if I’m not quite sure that is completely true). What does intrigue me is the fact that STLCSC (too many letters) just beat last year’s Western Conference Semi-Finalists on the road.
The scorer of this goal–Jared Stroud–was on Austin FC last year. Kipp Keller, the Austin defender in the clip, passes it back to him, out of what appears to be sheer muscle memory. This takes absolutely nothing away from their win–a goal is a goal. But man is this a bizarre thing to see.
In fact, the winner is a really good (mostly) individual goal.
Really, really impressive debut match in MLS for St. Louis City, beating last year’s Western Conference finalists Austin FC 3-2 away from home.
The clip makes it kind of hard to see, but the penultimate pass was really good, while the timing of the run and the individual skill that followed were excellent. The goalscorer for the winner was Klauss, STL’s Brazilian DP (full name: João Klauss de Melo).
There’s obviously not much game tape or stats to be had on STL yet, so we’ll be looking at some of their big names, big signings, and the Austin game.
Austin Game
STLCSC Starting XI at. Austin FC, 2/25/23
According to the official MLS site, STL was in a 4-2-3-1 for the entire game. Based on this sole game, I shall make the bold claim that’s the formation they play.
In many ways, St. Louis was outplayed. Here’s a brief look at the stats from the game.
Game stats STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23
Austin dominated possession, they had 150 more passes, and they had a 10% higher pass accuracy. What they didn’t do, though, was turn that possession into meaningful attacks (seems familiar, eh, Charlotte fans?). St. Louis outshot Austin, both in terms of total shots and shots on goal. While Austin was clinical in their finishing (2 goals from 2 shots on goal), they didn’t do much else.
xG Chart: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23
The xG for this game is eerily similar. Now, technically, St. Louis outproduced Austin by 0.5 xG, but remember that back pass to an opponent that led to a goal? Yeah, that had an xG of 0.49. Without that mistake, St. Louis probably doesn’t win this game.
Now, of all their (many) shots, and aside from the actual goals, STL isn’t taking good shots. The xG on their goals is as follows:
Parker: 0.14 xG
Stroud: 0.49 xG
Klauss: 0.22 xG
Aside from those 3 shots, only two other shots–a shot from Rasmus Alm with an xG of 0.30 in the 44th minute and a shot from John Vincent Nelson with an xG of 0.18 in the 74th minute–had an xG higher than 0.09. Most of these shots were actually incredibly low (0.01-0.05 xG). St. Louis got off a lot of shots, and that seems to be a philosophical strategy, but they weren’t very good ones.
Shot Map: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23
Charlotte was a bit vulnerable last year with shots in central areas just outside the box, so the fact STL isn’t scared to do that might be a problem. With that said, if a team’s primary method of scoring is to get goals from outside the box, they won’t be successful in the long term (not saying this is STL’s actual plan, by the way).
Passing Network: STLCSC at ATX, 2/25/23
The fact that #19, midfielder Indiana Vassilev, is basically disconnected from the entire team is fascinating. St. Louis doesn’t do much in the midfield. Off this one game, they seem to build through wide areas. For reference, here was Charlotte’s passing network from our opener.
Passing Network: CLT vs. NE, 2/25/23
In general, Charlotte’s passing network is something I plan to keep an eye on this year (also note how there is zero connection between Tuiloma and Mora), but it’s very different from St. Louis. Charlotte looked to maintain possession and build through their midfield (#8: Westwood, #13: Bronico).
The left side was targeted by STL against Austin. It remains to be seen if that was due to perceived deficiencies in Austin or if that’s the side St. Louis will look to build through. Looking at the players they have brought in (more on them later), I tend to think it’s the latter. Byrne and Malanda should take notice.
Looking at this game, Austin made a really costly mistake, didn’t take advantage of their possession, and St. Louis capitalized. I’m not sure Austin deserved to lose, but I don’t think this is a case where St. Louis didn’t deserve a win either. There is some luck involved, but overall, if you can go on the road to a good team and win while scoring 3, you deserve the 3 points.
Roman Bürki
St. Louis’ goalkeeper, Roman Bürki, is probably the biggest name on St. Louis’ roster. The former Borussia Dortmund keeper had a lot of success with Dortmund, but isn’t an otherworldly shot-stopper (as some in the media would have you believe). Bürki ended his Dortmund career with a 69.8% save percentage and 1.24 goals allowed/90.
PSxG+/- only goes back to the 2017-18 season. That year he had a +2.5 PSxG+/-, which is the only year it’s been positive. In 2018-19 he was at -1.0, in 2019-20 he was at -2.5, in 2020-21 he was at -1.6, and in 2021-22 he was at 0.0 (he had only 1 game this season).
In his last meaningful season with Dortmund (2020-21), he made 19 appearances (18 starts). The scouting report…isn’t great…
What is most troubling to me is that he’s not actually facing a ton of shots, but he’s allowing a decent number of goals. As someone who doesn’t follow Dortmund or the German Bundesliga closely, I can’t tell you if this was a result of poor play on his part or on Dortmund’s. Dortmund did finish 3rd that season, so it’s not like they were bad. Moreover, his 1.62 goals allowed per 90 was by far the highest of his career with the German club.
2015-16: 1.03 GA90 (33 games)
2016-17: 1.07 GA90 (27 games)
2017-18: 1.30 GA90 (33 games)
2018-19: 1.25 GA90 (32 games)
2019-20: 1.30 GA90 (31 games)
2020-21: 1.62 GA90 (19 games)
The trend is obviously not very good (i.e., the overall increase in GA90 then an explosion in 2020-21). However, goalkeeping and goals allowed are dependent on more factors than just a goalkeeper’s ability. Regardless, there does seem to be a decline.
For context, Dortmund’s new keeper, Gregor Kobel, had a 1.37 GA90 in 2021-22 (his first season as the starter). He currently has a 1.06 GA90 in 18 games this year.
Editor’s note: big thank you to @_Pancake_Papi for his fan perspective on Bürki. His thoughts mainly backed up the data that Bürkiwas good but, by the end of his time with Dortmund, fans felt it was time to move on. I imagine most of you already follow him on Twitter, but if you don’t, you absolutely should!
Klauss
Klauss is a 26-year-old DP for St. Louis. He began his career in the Brazilian youth ranks (Internacional, Juventude, Grêmio) before moving to 1899 Hoffenheim in 2017.
In 2018, he was sent on loan to HJK in the Finnish first division. He made 33 appearances (28 starts), scoring 21 goals and getting 1 assist. 3 of those goals were PKs, but 18 goals as a 20-year-old is still noteworthy.
Klauss’ next loan stop was LASK in the Austrian Bundesliga. He would spend two seasons (2018-19, 2019-20) with LASK, making 42 appearances (27 starts). He had 3 goals and 0 assists his first season (in 14 appearances), before rebounding for 12 goals (1 PK) and 4 assists in his 2nd season (28 appearances).
In the 2020-21 season, he finally made an appearance for Hoffenheim’s first team, but it would be the first of very few. In total, he made 4 appearances (51 total minutes) for Hoffenheim and failed to record a goal or assist. He spent the rest of the 2020-21 season on loan at Standard Liège in the Belgian First Division, making 13 appearances (10 starts) and getting 8 goal contributions (5 goals, 3 assists). He remained with Standard Liège for the 2021-22 season, making 19 appearances (15 starts) but scoring only once.
At some point during the 2021-22 season, his loan with Standard ended and he was loaned out to Sint-Truiden in the Belgian First Division. He would make 8 appearances (3 starts) for Sint-Truiden, scoring twice.
Klauss heatmap in the Belgian First DivisionKlauss heatmap from MLS
As we can see from his heatmaps, Klauss is a pure center forward. There is a bit of a left-sided bias, but it’s not much. He’s a player who wants to stay central. At 6’2.5″ and 181 lbs, he makes for a physical player.
He’s an odd player to me. I’m not sure the scoring consistency is exactly what you would expect from a DP #9. For reference, his best two goalscoring seasons beat or tie Karol Świderski’s best season (12 goals in 2018-19), but Karol is consistently in the 10-goal-a-season range. Klauss’ production is…erratic.
Playing time can usually be looked at in cases like these, but he’s consistently gotten playing time at every stop–it just hasn’t always worked out. The difference in his two seasons at Standard Liège highlights this.
With that said, he’s hit the ground running with St. Louis. I’m curious to see which striker St. Louis ends up with. Will it be the “HJK-2nd-season-LASK-1st-season-Standard-Liège-Klauss?” If so, it’s a really good move.
Eduard Löwen
Löwen is St. Louis’ second DP that they’ve brought over from a German club. Like Klauss, Löwen is 26. Unlike Klauss, Löwen has a decent amount of experience playing in a top league.
Löwen began his career with Nürnberg in the German 2. Bundesliga. He made 65 appearances (52 starts) for Nürnberg over 3 seasons (2016-2019). In his final season with Nürnberg, they were in the Bundesliga (though they would finish 18th and be relegated). He scored 8 goals and had 7 assists during his time with the club, including a 5-goal, 4-assist season in 2017-2018.
He was loaned out to Augsburg during the 2019-20 season, before moving to Hertha Berlin that same season. In the 2019-20 season, he would make 23 appearances (9 starts) for Augsburg and Hertha. He had 2 goals and 1 assist for Augsburg, but failed to score or assist for Hertha. In 2020-21, he would only make 7 appearances (1 start) for Hertha and, again, failed to score or assist.
In 2021-22, he joined Bochum on loan, making 26 appearances (15 starts). He scored 2 goals (1 PK) and had 2 assists.
Like Klauss, this seems a player that showed potential before fizzling out a bit. Brought in by St. Louis to be a playmaker–like Klauss–he has gotten off to a good start, as he already has an assist.
Let’s take a look at some heatmaps (they go in reverse chronological order):
Löwen heatmap for 2023 MLSLöwen heatmap for 2021-22 with BochumLöwen heatmap from 2019-20 with Ausburg and Hertha BerlinLöwen heatmap for 2018-19 with NürnbergLöwen heatmap for 2017-18 with Nürnberg
Two things interest me about these heatmaps.
First, there isn’t a ton of consistency with them. The one consistent aspect of them is that there is a left-sided bias, except for the 2018-19 season when that bias is shifted towards the right (although he is all over the pitch). In 2019-20, it looks like he was mostly playing as a left-sided central midfielder.
Second, his most productive season, at least from a goal-contribution perspective, was 2017-18 when he was playing his deepest. Now, that is the year that Nürnberg earned promotion to the Bundesliga, finishing 2nd in the 2. Bundesliga. Perhaps that explains the production (i.e., he played for one of the best teams in that particular league). The second-best year for goal contribution was the next year, though, when Nürnberg was newly promoted. He’s not as deep as the 2017-18 season, but he’s further back than he will be in the subsequent years.
It appears that St. Louis is reverting him back somewhat to his positioning from those days. Although he was given the #10 shirt, he started and played as part of the double pivot in their 4-2-3-1.
It didn’t necessarily work out for him in the Bundesliga, but he seems a talented player. Importantly, he has experience playing against top competition in that league, which should prove useful. He won’t be facing a Bayern Munich in MLS.
Further, while St. Louis isn’t expected to be great this year, he’s mostly played at lower-level clubs in a top division. Due to the nature of American soccer and the structure of MLS, there’s greater upward mobility for clubs. The chances of a Bochum or Nürnberg seriously competing in the Bundesliga are infinitesimal. The chances of St. Louis–or any other MLS team–being able to go from a bottom feeder to a contender in a few years is absolutely possible (if not always likely).
Overall, it seems a smart move to me and someone who provides great experience for a new club, while also being relatively young.
Conclusion
There aren’t many solid conclusions that can be made from the first game of a new club. They have had a better start than Charlotte did, that’s for sure, but I’m curious to see how they hold up.
There are a few other players of note who do interest me on them. Njabulo Boom is a 23-year-old South African who was brought over from Kaizer Chiefs in the South African Premier Division. He made 69 appearances (53 starts) for them over 5 seasons, with most of those coming in the last 3. He had 4 assists for them in 2021-22. He came off the bench in the first game, replacing Vassilev.
Speaking of Vassilev, there’s talent there. This is a guy who had time with Aston Villa (mostly their junior team) and a couple of other English clubs in the lower divisions of England. He’s had two stints with Inter Miami, making 45 appearances (20 starts) and scoring 5 goals. At only 22, there’s still a lot of time for him. I am a bit confused about St. Louis’ decision to start him as a DM when it appears he’s mostly been a wide or attacking midfielder, with a bit of central midfield thrown in. Based on that passing chart, I’m not sure this experiment worked. It is just one game though.
Lastly, Isak Jensen is their YDP. He didn’t make an appearance during the first game and only has 19 career appearances (5 starts) for SønderjyskE in the Danish Superliga. I’m not sure what the plan with him is, but as a YDP, you have to imagine the 20-year-old will feature at some point.
From a Charlotte perspective, I don’t think we have to be overly concerned. I’m not convinced Bürki is very good anymore. He’ll probably be better in MLS than he was his last few years with Dortmund, but I’m not sure I see him being a wall. An average MLS goalkeeper seems likely to me.
The fact that St. Louis was able to score so many goals in their debut game worries me since Charlotte still can’t score. With that said, we have a number of new pieces, especially in attack.
There were moments in the New England game where you could tell that the connection between different players just wasn’t there yet. Early in the first half, there was a sequence where Westwood attempted a pass to Enzo Copetti. Copetti clearly expected Westwood to play him into space behind the line, while Westwood expected Enzo to want the ball at his feet. In the end, a Revs’ defender intercepted the ball. As these players get more game time together, I expect these types of miscommunications to decrease.
In the opener, I walked away thinking that Mora had a good game. I’ve heard from a number of places online that I might have that wrong. The supporter’s section offers a lot, but it doesn’t always allow for great analytical viewing. I do maintain that even if he was caught out a bit defensively, two things are still true. One, CL likes his FBs to play a bit inverted and that may have contributed to his perceived (or real) lack of good defensive positioning. Two, he had some of the better crosses for this game. On a team that struggled as a whole to produce dangerous crosses, this shouldn’t be overlooked. He might not have been quite as good as I thought when viewing him live, but I think he might have had an above-average Joseph Mora performance.
Our friends over at the Charlotte Soccer Show brought up the idea of Jóźwiak at LB. It’s not something I’m necessarily against, especially as it looks like we’re not bringing in a new LB (fingers crossed reverse psychology works!). With that said, I’m not convinced.
Idea of Jóź to LB is interesting one, but not fully sold on it. He's a good defender for a winger, but I'm not sure how well that translates to LB. He's about 2.08 tkls/90. Best (defensive) LBs are about 1 tkl/90 higher. Lot goes into that. He doesn't have to be a *defensive* LB. https://t.co/82CYxgmudC
Our formation was listed as a 4-3-3, which confused me a bit. I’m still not sure Świderski can handle the #10 (though I have hope); I’m even less convinced he can be an #8.
I didn’t think he had a bad game overall, though his touch let him down a bit. The pass that led to the goal was absolutely atrocious and can’t be happening from one of our supposed leaders. I put 95% of that goal on Karol, though our tracking back did nothing to help matters. If you’re a masochist, go look back at that goal. At one point, there are 4 Charlotte players between 2 New England players and the goal. One of those NE players is Kessler, a CENTER BACK. Its…not good.
It was also interesting that when Shinyashiki came on, Andre didn’t go to the wings. Rather, Świderski did and, honestly, I thought Andre provided more through the middle of that game.
Aside from LB, the positions with the most questions over starters are the wings. The pitchforks are already out for Jóźwiak and Gaines. While I agree neither had a good game on Saturday, I think both deserve a few more games. This is especially true of Jóźwiak. I will also acknowledge that Vargas looked much better than either and he might be this year. I still want to see that kind of performance from him more consistently before I fully commit to it, but if that appearance was a new normal, then, yes, he should be starting.
In that same thread about Jóźwiak as a potential LB, I delve into Vargas’ numbers from last year. There isn’t much difference between the two and, in a number of categories, Jóźwiak outpaces him. Again, if the form he showed against NE is the new norm, then he must play.
To be honest, aside from maybe trying Afful out at LB (*shudder*), I wouldn’t change the lineup for St. Louis. I’d still have Jóźwiak and Gaines on the wings, with Vargas as the first off the bench for either if they’re struggling.
I would really like to see Nuno Santos get some time this weekend, though not on the wing. I’ve heard he played there over the preseason and maybe it can work. I just have my doubts. More importantly, I just get the feeling he’d be better in the middle of the park. No, I don’t know where he’d play in the midfield with our current players and formations.
I’m sure the atmosphere in St. Louis will be electric on Saturday, but I’m hopeful about this game. Let’s go spoil a party.
