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The 2023 New England Preview, Pt. 1

We are back!!!!!

After a few months away, Charlotte FC will finally be playing meaningful games back at the Bank. As Year Two rolls in, expectations amongst the fanbase are high. Nationally, the outlook is more mixed.

Many fans might be surprised by the relative lack of belief in this team. On average, we’re looking at these experts predicting a 10th-place finish for Charlotte (9.9167 repeating, to be exact). I personally think they could be a playoff team. My money is on them getting around 48 points, which would (historically) be good for about 7th or 8th place. Obviously, Andrew Wiebe is our new favorite media (sorry Bogert!).

Kljestan, Lowery, Ortiz, Slaton, and Bradley Wright-Philips’ 13th-place finish predictions all seem overly negative, at least to me, but it must be admitted that this is a team with some serious issues and question marks.

The acquisition of Bill Tuiloma does assuage some concerns I have regarding center-back, but left-back has not been touched. It remains a terrifying proposition to have Harrison Afful or Joseph Mora as our starter there for the entire season. Additionally, we will be starting the season without our #1 keeper in Kahlina, though there is an argument to be made that outside of his first 7-10 games, he wasn’t overly impressive. I’m not sure how many are ready to hear that, though.

Finally, Jóźwiak, Świderski, and Copetti represent 3 DPs with huge question marks. I’m a firm believer in Kamil and Karol, but I’m not sure either lived up to the billing of a DP. Well, we can actually be honest and say that Jóźwiak definitely didn’t. While the 10 goals and 4 assists were nice, you probably want a bit more from a DP #9 (or #10), in Karol’s case.

Enzo has me excited but this is a player with a limited (albeit good) track record, coming to a new league and country, returning from serious injury, and learning a new language. To say that he might need an adjustment period is an understatement. The unfortunate reality, though, is that he and Charlotte can’t afford an adjustment period. This team desperately needs goals and if it takes him a while to get off the mark, it probably won’t be a good thing for this club.

My previews usually consist of a look at the previous games for clubs, as well as their overall stats. With this being the first game of the season, those are not available. While I could look at last year’s formations and such (and I will to a degree), I think it might be more useful to look at who NE has added to this roster for the 2023 season.

Last year was a down one for New England. The 2021 record-setters found themselves finishing 10th in the East with 42 points (a 31-point decrease from 2021!), a -3 goal differential, and a -9.0 xG differential.

To me, their issues seem twofold. One, they had an aging roster. Two–and probably more important for last year’s team–they lost Adam Buksa midway through the year. The 25-year-old Polish striker had 7 goals and 2 assists in 10 games (9 starts) for them. Their leading goalscorer last year, Gustavo Bou, only had 8 goals and 2 assists in 19 games, while the 2nd top goal-getter, Carles Gil, had only 7 goals (but 9 assists!) in 33 games. No one else had more than 4. New England, like Charlotte, could not score.

Since last summer, NE has effectively secured 5 new players: CF Giacomo Vrioni (24), old Charlotte friend (?) Christain Makoun (22), CAM Latif Blessing (26), CF Bobby Wood (30), and CB Dave Romney (29). They made a few more moves during the summer of last season, but a number of those players (former Charlotte draftee Ismael Tajouri-Shradi among them!) are no longer with the club. These acquisitions haven’t necessarily done much to drastically reduce the age of this squad, but they have targeted a number of younger players. Three players in particular interest me: Vrioni, Blessing, and Romney. We’re all intimately familiar with the Makoun experience and Wood, now 30, has made enough appearances with USMNT to be familiar to most. Also, Wood has scored 6 total goals in the past 5 seasons, so I’m not sure how much we should care about him in general. This appears a pure depth move by NE.

(Fun Fact: Wood had 17 goals and 4 assists in 2015-16 for Union Berlin. For the rest of his career, which spans 12 seasons, he has 22 goals, along with 4 seasons of 0 goals. This man has started for the USMNT. Sigh…)

Giacomo Vrioni

Vrioni is DP who joined from Juventus last summer for $3.89M. Like Charlotte’s DPs, he’s mostly still an unknown.

He began his career with Sampdoria, though he never made an appearance. He would go on to play for Venezia in Serie B (2018-19), where he made 24 appearances but only had 1 goal and 1 assist. In 2019-20, he had appearances for Cittadella in Serie B (4 apps, 1 assist, 0 goals) and Juventus (1 appearance, 0 goals, 0 assists). He was on loan last year with WSG Tirol in the Austrian Bundesliga, where he made 25 appearances (20 starts) and had 20 goal contributions (17 goals and 3 assists), according to FBref. Wyscout does have him at 19 goals and 4 assists for these appearances. Transfermarkt has him at 17 goals but 4 assists, while SofaScore has him at 17 goals and 3 assists. I’m not quite sure why there is this discrepancy, but it appears that Wyscout is giving him 2 more goals than he should have. Of his goals this season, 3 were PKs. His move to NE produced 7 appearances (2 starts) but only 1 goal (a PK).

When scoring, he is predominately a left-footer. Note: I’m using Wyscout’s 19 goal total for this because they have a handy breakdown of how he scored (left foot, right foot, head). Keep in mind the goal discrepancy they have (i.e., 2 more than other sources).

Left foot: 10
Right foot: 3
Head: 5

It should also be remembered that he had 3 penalties and, as he’s a left-footer, those inflate his total a bit for that side. Still, he’s a tall man who scores how you would expect: with his primary foot or head.

Listed at 6’2″ and 172 lbs, Vrioni is in the mold of Buksa (who is 6’3″ and 172 lbs). NE obviously sees Vrioni as Buksa’s long-term replacement, but the question remains can he be? While his year in Austria was hugely successful, so far it has been a fluke of a season. For NE to be successful, his Austrian-league form needs to be his new norm.

This heatmap shows a prototypical center-forward. There isn’t much happening on the wings, but anything down the center includes his involvement. His movement will test Malanda, and whoever is paired with him.

Latif Blessing

Blessing is a really interesting player. He was briefly linked to Charlotte during the summer transfer window and, honestly, he’s a player that would probably do well on this team.

Blessing is diminutive, listed at only 5’4.5″ and 141 lbs. He started his career with Sporting KC, where he made 25 appearances in 2017, scoring 3 goals and getting 1 assist. He was drafted by LAFC in 2018 and exploded with them over the next two seasons. In 2018, he got 5 goals and 6 assists in 30 appearances (18 starts). He followed that up with a 6-goal, 3-assist season in 34 appearances (29 starts).

Then the past 3 seasons have happened.

2020: 21 appearances, 18 starts, 1 goal, 2 assists
2021: 30 appearances, 25 starts, 2 goals, 2 assists
2022: 30 appearances, 16 starts, 0 goals, 1 assist

So what has happened to Blessing? It appears to be positioning.

Positioning can make a huge difference for players. This is not groundbreaking but it can be overlooked. Positional changes can help account for the emergence of players such as Hany Muktar, Luciano Acosta, and Cucho. My first thought was this was the case with Blessing.

Here’s a bunch of heatmaps!

These are no help, at least initially.

In his first two seasons with LAFC, which, remember, are his most productive from a goal-contribution standpoint, it appears they played him in a more attacking role, both based on his heatmaps and positional designations.

2018: it appears that he’s playing as a winger. This is backed up by his positional designations on FBref (mostly LW/LM and RW/RM).
2019: he’s all over the park with his heatmap. FBref has him listed as anything from a LM to a RW to CM to RB, so this makes sense. In multiple games, FBref has him playing as a LM/LW and RB in the same game.

For both of these years, his positional designations and heatmaps correspond with his goal and assist output. Then things change.

2020: his heatmap has him as a right-sided player, which is backed up by designations on FBref of mostly RM and RB (with some CM thrown in).
2021: his heatmap finds him similarly deployed, but he’s back on the left a bit more too. Again, he’s listed a lot as a RM or RB, but now there’s a lot more CM thrown in, which explains the encroachment into the left side of the park without him actually being formally deployed there too often.
2022: last year’s heatmap has him all over the pitch again, but the designations remain mostly RM and CM.

So where does that leave us with Blessing? To me, first and foremost he has proved to be an incredibly flexible player. I love players who can do jobs all over the pitch and blessing appears to do that. Again, he’s a player that Charlotte could use. With that said, oftentimes a player who has positional flexibility has it because he can’t nail down one position. In general, I don’t think Blessings’ decrease in goal contributions is related to a decrease in skill. Rather, I think it has to do with LAFC progressively moving him farther back on the pitch.

This then leads us to the question of how will NE use him? One indication is if we look at how they designate him. If you look on FBref, you will find Blessing listed as a “FW-MF (CM-WM).” Transfermarkt has him listed as a “midfield-Attacking Midfield.” SofaScore has him as a “M” (for midfielder). The Revs, though, are listing him as a forward. This would indicate to me that they plan on having him revert to a role more similar to his first two years–and especially his first year–in LA.

When looking at the composition of their team, this would make sense. Below is the heatmap for their great CAM, Carles Gil.

Blessing isn’t going to be a CAM for NE and I wouldn’t think they’d pair these two in the midfield either. Gil is only listed at 5’6.5″ and 150 lbs. That would be an incredibly tiny midfield. Pushing Blessing to the wing would make more sense. Additionally, NE employs a really good RB in Brandon Bye (2 goals, 7 assists last year). Finally, against Chicago for the last game of the year, NE had Nacho Gil as their starting RW. Nacho Gil is no longer on NE (in fact, he’s currently without a club). Blessing could see time on the left wing, too. It appears Bou started there in the 2022 finale, though. All signs point to Blessing being their new right-sided forward.

Editor’s Note: Apparently NE did resign Nacho Gil. Transfermarkt’s transfer page for NE had him listed as “Without Club,” which threw Josh off. He was resigned by them in January. However, he is listed in the injury report so unclear if he’ll factor in the game.

For what it’s worth, MLS’s official site’s preview of NE has them in a 4-4-2 diamond, with Bou as a 2nd striker to Vrioni and Blessing as a right midfielder in the diamond. This is obviously a very possible formation, but according to FBref, NE was almost exclusively a 4-3-2-1 team last year. Whatever the formation, my gut tells me they’ll be looking to push Blessing higher up the pitch on the right side. This move has been a bit under the radar, but I think it’s a really good one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Blessing back up to 5-7 goals and 4-6 assists this season.

Dave Romney

Romney is a veteran of MLS. He began his career with the LA Galaxy, making 84 appearances (69 starts) for them over 5 seasons. He joined Nashville in 2020 and became a mainstay. In 3 years with Nashville, he made 87 appearances with 86 starts!

Romney will chip in the odd goal (3 goals last year, 9 for his career). More impressively for a center-back, though, he will chip in assists. He has 11 career assists, including 5 over the past 3 seasons. At 29, he’s still in his prime as a defender and, having played the last few seasons for a notoriously defensive-minded side, he’s a good addition for NE. He’ll be paired with Henry Kessler, who is a bit of a forgotten man. Kessler was very good for NE in 2021, but last year he was coming back from injury. It doesn’t appear that he ever really got back to full form last year. Now a year removed from injury, this CB-pairing has the potential to be one of the best in the league.

Romney defense, passing, and miscellaneous percentiles vs. 2022 MLS CBs

As we can see, Romney is quite good against dribblers when pressed into it, but doesn’t appear to be a front-footed defender. It should always be noted that defensive metrics are never as telling as offensive ones and CBs are often products of their team’s scheme. Regardless, it should make for an interesting matchup between him and Vargas or Gaines (I’m assuming).

His passing is middle of the road for a CB, but the rate at which he crosses into the penalty area is interesting. Kessler’s passing ability is very good, which should help make up for Romney’s lack of range.

Finally, Romney is good at aerials. Kessler isn’t terrible (46th percentile for % of aerials won) in the air, but NE probably wanted to find someone to bolster this area. Like with most great CB pairings, it’s not about each partner doing everything well; it’s about the balance between the partners. On paper, Romney and Kessler appear to balance each other out very well.

There are a few other players that should be highlighted for New England.

First, I haven’t touched on Gil, but he really is an amazing player. I know he rubs a lot of Charlotte, and MLS, fans wrong because of his reputation for being a bit dive-y. I’ll admit, I don’t really see that in him (or at least not any more so than other players). At 5’6.5″, he’s not a big guy, so going down under challenges is probably to be expected. Regardless of how you feel about him, here are his stats since he’s joined the Revolution:

2019: 34 appearances, 34 starts, 10 goals (4 PKs), 12 assists
2020: 6 appearances, 4 starts, 0 goals, 1 assist (injured for most of the year)
2021: 28 appearances, 24 starts, 4 goals (1 PK), 11 assists
2022: 33 appearances, 32 starts, 7 goals (3 PKs), 9 assists

Yes, the PKs do inflate his goal numbers quite a bit, but he’s not a striker. As such, PK inflation doesn’t bother me as much with him as it would with a #9. These assist numbers are also from FBref, as–say it together–soccer should not have hockey assists (looking at you, MLS official stats). It’s difficult to understate how good Gil is at getting the ball to his teammates. NE scored a total of 47 goals last year, meaning that he provided the assist on almost 20% of them (19%, to be exact). With better forward play throughout the year, he probably hits double digits again. The Revolution goes as Gil does. I’d be tempted to man-mark him.

In goal, NE keeps finding talent. Having sold Matt Turner to Arsenal, one would expect their goalkeeping to become a weakness. Instead, they inserted a 22-year-old Đorđe Petrović into goal and he instantly became a top 5 MLS keeper, at least. There are even rumors of Manchester United keeping close tabs on him.

Petrović made 21 starts last year, allowing 27 goals, having an 82.7% save rate, and keeping 7 clean sheets. He had an outrageous +13.1 PSxG+/-, which was good for 1st in the league. He did have 13 fewer games than Andre Blake of Philadelphia, who for my money is easily the best keeper in MLS. Blake was 2nd in MLS in PSxG+/- at +10.0. Petrović’s PSxG+/- was double that of 3rd place Dayne St. Claire (+6.9). For further reference, Kahlina ended the season with a -3.6 PSxG+/-, good for 54th in the league! Yes, that ranking obviously includes keepers who only made 1 or 2 starts, but, again, we might have a goalkeeper issue. Topic for another day…By the way, Gaga Slonina, who Chelsea paid an estimated $15M for, had a -0.5 PSxG+/- in 32 games. Yes, Slonina is 4 years younger than Petrović, but we might all have been paying a bit too much attention to the wrong young goalkeeper.

The biggest thing that jumps out to me about Petrović is his ability against crosses. He was in the 67th percentile for crosses faced, 89th percentile for crosses stopped, and 89th percentile for crosses stopped percentage. Plan A should not be to jump lump the ball into the area.

It’ll be interesting to see if Petrović can keep this pace up. If so, two things will be true. 1) We will have a new best goalkeeper in MLS and 2) He will quickly not be in MLS (therefore reverting back to us having the same best goalkeeper).

New England is a tough team to face first. Having played them last season with Buksa, we at least face a worse striker, but they continue to employ one of the best creators in the league (Gil), one of the best goalkeepers (Petrović), have added a potentially dangerous winger (Blessing), and improved their defense (Romney).

There are a number of players I haven’t touched on either that can’t be ignored. Both of their fullbacks, Bye and DeJuan Jones, are some of the better ones for this league. Matt Polster serves as a good midfield anchor, while Andrew Farrell is probably now the best 3rd CB in the league. Veterans such as Thomas McNamara, Jozy Altidore, Wood, and Omar Gonzalez provide good depth (if not the overall quality they each individually had).

Expectations for NE from their fans are probably playoffs, but I think they’re probably a similar team to Charlotte in that both have some holes, some question marks, and definite room for overall improvement. They seem like a team that will probably be fighting with Charlotte for that 6th-9th spot. As such, it’s an important game for us. Of course, if Vrioni makes a jump and Blessing reverts back to his 2018 and 2019 form, coupled with Gil, they could finish higher.

For Charlotte, my worry comes in defense. Up top, I expect a front 4 of Jóźwiak-Copetti-Gaines-Świderski. I can actually see that being a very potent lineup. The biggest question of that group is probably whether it will be Gaines or Vargas. I’ve said it before, Vargas right now is what people think Gaines is. Vargas has a higher ceiling, to be sure, and needs plenty of playing time this year. Right now, though, Gaines is the better player and should be starting.

(Note: Justin did bring up on the preview pod this Wednesday that Vargas’ delivery has looked better in the preseason. As I said on the pod, 1) I don’t really put too much stock into the preseason and 2) wasn’t able to see any of those games. If he has truly improved his delivery, the difference between Gaines and him–which already isn’t very big–becomes even smaller and the argument for him to be starting becomes more justified.)

In the midfield, I expect to see Westwood and Bronico. I’m a big fan of Nuno Santos and I expect him to find his way into the starting lineup. There are rumors of him being deployed on the right side, which might not be the worst thing. We’ve seen so little of him that I’m not sure how he would fair out there. His small-sample size numbers indicate a player that wants to be and should be on the ball a lot. I’m not sure that happens on the outside. Plus, I do believe Lattanzio values pace from wingers. I honestly don’t know if Nuno has that kind of pace; I know Vargas and Gaines do.

In goal, I expect to see Sisniega. I know there has been a “competition” between him and Marks, but the fact that Sisniega was the one to start games last year tells me he has the leg up in this. Plus, he has the size of a real goalkeeper.

The real issues come in the backline. Barring a setback in health, our star boy Malanda should start alongside Nathan Byrne. The left side is where there are a huge amount of question marks to be found.

It seems more and more likely that Harrison Afful will start at LB. It’s not a prospect that excites me. Derrick Jones has seen a lot of time at CB during the preseason, so there’s a chance he starts there for the opener. Personally, I’d much prefer us to throw Tuiloma into the lineup. He’s 27, has been in the league for 5 years, has 57 appearances for Portland over the past 2 years, and should be able to immediately play. We gave up a decent amount for him, so the plan can’t be for him to back up a midfielder pretending to be a CB.

At left back, Sobociński has gotten some time there this preseason. I don’t expect that to happen for this first game, nor do I expect our #1 overall pick, Diop, to play, but I’d prefer either option over Afful. Amazingly, I’d even prefer…gulp…Joseph Mora over Afful.

Prediction: Charlotte 2 – New England 1

Data Notes: All heatmaps come from Sofascore.com. All percentile rankings and percentile charts come from FBref.com. Other websites used for data include: transfermarkt.us, Wyscout.com, and MLSsoccer.com

Malanda: French for Good

When Charlotte made their summer signings, I was of the opinion that the least likely to provide a meaningful impact for us in 2022 was going to be Adilson Malanda. A 20-year-old CB coming from Ligue 2. Nah, he was going to ride the bench. I figured Nuno Santos would immediately play and Nathan Byrne would take over the RB spot. I was…wrong.

Unhappily, Guzman Corujo went down with injury in August. Initially, this thrust Jan Sobociński into the starting lineup, though his own injury woes would force him out. It then fell to the young Malanda to pair with Anton Walkes.

As a quick aside: Jan has been a forgotten man when it comes to this backline. Not even 24, he showed real flashes in his time on the pitch last year. Multiple injuries really derailed his season, but if he can shake the injury bug, I believe there is a real player in there.

I don’t think Walkes’ veteran presence should be overlooked when it comes to Malanda’s successful run of form. Malanda’s own ability carried him through his first games in MLS, but Walkes was a steadying presence for him.

Editor’s note: This post was written before Walkes’ death and already included this reference to Walkes and his veteran leadership. These were Josh’s thoughts before his passing and it feels even more appropriate to retain them in the post now.

It was and continues to be difficult not to be incredibly excited about Malanda’s potential. I’m very much a cautious individual when it comes to young players. While I prefer a talented young player over an aging vet (see: Jóźwiak vs. Reyna), I hesitate to believe in good performances too quickly. Young players tend to go through rough patches. The highs can be great but the lows can be as well.

Malanda will enter the 2023 MLS season as a 21-year-old CB with 6 games (in MLS) to his name. That is it. It is very likely–and even expected–that he will have a run of poor performances. Very few CBs his age start consistently at clubs and fewer still do so at a consistently high level. The ones that do are the elite of the elite. In my time watching soccer, only a few jump immediately to my mind: Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, and William Saliba (yes, Justin, Logan and I will mention him at every opportunity). These are obviously different players in much tougher leagues than MLS. They are also probably better players than Malanda will ever be (we’re talking about one of the best CBs ever in Silva, a CB who has been a starter for Roma and PSG since he was 18 in Marquinhos, and the young player of the year in France last year who has been a standout on the league-leading Arsenal). That is not a knock on Malanda, as he seems to have the potential to be a top CB in MLS, if not force his way back to Europe.

When looking at CBs, there are a few things I look for, aside from the ability to tackle.

He needs to be at least 6’0″. Yes, I am a height snob when it comes to CBs. I want them to be bullies and command the penalty area.
He needs to be able to progress the ball out from the back. This comes in the form of passing, but also dribbling ability. I don’t need a CB to be Neymar on the ball, but he should have the technical ability and on-ball confidence to turn a defender from time to time or take the space when it is given.
He needs to be able to chip in 3-5 goals per year.
He needs the pace to be able to recover. A CB is never going to win a footrace with the likes of Gaines, Ruan, or some of the other quicker players in the league. However, he needs to have enough pace to match up with 80% of the forwards in a league and the wherewithal to manage his limitations against the quicker players.

How does Malanda stack up with these “requirements”?

Quick note: I will be using FBref stats and their scouting report. We should take the scouting report percentages with a HUGE grain of salt. Malanda has 6 games in MLS. It’s an incredibly small sample size, however, I think it’s still worthwhile to see how he is stacking up so far. I expect these numbers to change over a full season–some probably drastically.

Height

First, he’s listed at 6’1″ on Charlotte’s site (though he’s listed half an inch shorter on FBref). Having seen him in person, this seems about right. He’s only 165 lbs and looks it. He’s spindly and wiry, but that doesn’t seem to stop him from being physical in games. I would probably like to see him add about 10 pounds of muscle, but there’s a balance between him doing that and potentially losing some of his pace/quickness.

On-ball Ability

Malanda can pass. When he was first signed, there wasn’t much information out there for him. I found this video and what jumped out to me was his confidence to make a pass and run with the ball.

As with any YouTube highlight video, there aren’t bad plays in here–but his ability to be calm on the ball, go around a player, and make a pass are all evident.

Malanda’s passing ability is already evident, but I don’t think we’ve seen its full impact. This is probably due to Lattanzio. I don’t mean this in a disparaging way either. I imagine CL wanted to have Malanda focus on defending and leave the penetrative distribution to others. For a young player coming to a new league in a new country with a new language, this all makes sense.

On the season, Malanda attempted 376 total passes, good for 62.7 attempts per 90. That was good for 4th on the team behind Santos (71.7 passes attempted/90), Afful (71.5 passes attempted/90), and Fuchs (70.3 passes attempted/90). Technically, Hegardt led the team with 120 passes attempted/90 (!!!) but he had 0.2 90s, so it’s hard to really count him. Even Santos is a bit iffy to count with this, as he only had 1.8 90s. Regardless, the point is that even if Malanda wasn’t meant to be a focal point of distribution, he saw a lot of the ball.

Note: some of Charlotte’s struggles offensively can probably be traced to the fact that our defenders lead the team in passes attempted per 90. Hegardt and Santos, as previously mentioned, are dubious to include in these rankings due to their overall lack of playing time. Even if you do include them, though, 9 of our top 11 players in this category were defenders. If you exclude them, Bronico is the only non-defender to break the top 10 (51.3 passes attempted/90). That is problematic and something that has to be changed in the coming season. It’s also one of the reasons I view Santos as such an important player moving forward. It’s a very small sample size, but those 71.7 passes attempted/90 are much needed. Westwood, if healthy, should also help.

Of his 376 passes, Malanda completed 326 of them (54.3 completed passes/90) at an 86.7% clip. Breaking it down even further, most of his passing came in the medium range (194 completed of 207 attempted, 93.7% completion percentage). He completed 93 of 97 short passes (95.9%). Where I’m most excited to see him evolve is in his long passing; he only attempted 63 long passes last year, completing 37 of them (58.7%). In the video above, there were numerous times when he would hit a long diagonal ball to the wing. That’s something I would like to see from him more this year.

Malanda Passing Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com

Malanda Passing Types vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com

For a then-20-year-old, this is outstanding. Compared with his central defender peers, Malanda is already a league leader in passing. His one area of improvement needs to be with key passes, but, again, he was 20! We can nitpick a few areas if we want, but when there is this much green, you just enjoy it (while also continuing to acknowledge the all-important small sample size).

Goal Contribution

Goals are never the most important stat for a CB, but the very best teams always seem to have a CB who chips in some goals. Malanda has never actually scored a goal in his professional career and has only 1 assist (last year for Charlotte). Thus, there’s nothing in his history that necessarily leads you to believe that he could contribute 3-5 goals per season. Yet, I think he will and it’s mostly due to one thing: his ability to time runs and jumps.

Logan was one of the first people I heard mention this, but Malanda has already shown an ability to get himself into good positions from corners. He crashes down into the box.

Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22

Malanda doesn’t score this, but his run and jump from deep are so well-timed. It causes confusion in the box, which allows Świderski to finish off the chance.

Charlotte vs. NYCFC, 9/10/22

This second one deserved a goal. It’s a fantastic ball in from Vargas and, again, Malanda’s run and jump are impeccable.

Of course, I would be remiss not to mention that the numbers don’t necessarily bear out his aerial ability. In fact, they show the opposite.

Malanda Miscellaneous Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com

Yikes. Those numbers are not great and show a definite area of improvement. I predict–and am confident that–further game experience will improve these numbers.

Pace

Malanda has shown the ability to recover and provide cover for teammates. In the Chicago game, the second goal comes from a good move by Chicago and poor decision-making by Malanda’s veteran teammates, Walkes and Afful.

Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22

When the ball is played, Malanda is on the halfway line and a few good yards behind the fullback making a run. He covers the ground exceptionally well, forcing #2 on Chicago to cut back. Unfortunately, no one but Malanda and Byrne has tracked back well on this play and Chicago gets a goal.

This next angle shows it even better.

Charlotte at Chicago Fire, 9/17/22

In general, you don’t want a CB to have to go full-bore, as that usually means a mistake has been made somewhere else. It will happen, though, and it’s good to know that Malanda has the ability to catch up.

With only 6 games under his belt at the MLS level–and only 40 total for his career–it’s far too soon to say exactly what Adilson Malanda is. This discussion has also largely ignored his tackling ability, so let’s take a look.

Malanda Defensive Percentiles vs. MLS CBs, past 365 days, via FBref.com

There is clearly room for improvement. His relative lack of errors is encouraging, as is his ability against dribblers. Of course, that ability hasn’t been extensively tested. FBref has him in only 3 duels vs. dribblers. While his 100% success rate in these situations is good (you certainly want him at 100% and not 0%), there’s not a big enough sample to say that it will be predictive of his future ability.

It should be noted that defensive stats are notoriously fickle and, of all the advanced stats, the least fleshed out, in my opinion. That is not to excuse these numbers; Malanda will need to improve them if he is to reach the heights the beginning of his Charlotte career has hinted at. To be a true defensive stopper, you will want him to get stuck in a bit more and have success while doing it. With that said, I don’t think these numbers need to be overly concerning for us just yet due to the small sample and age.

It’s hard not to dream about Malanda’s future. It does look that bright. Charlotte’s first overall pick, Diop, also shows some of these same traits (ball carrying, passing, physical build). Even Jan fits in this mold. It seems Charlotte has a CB prototype in mind.

For the upcoming year, all Charlotte fans should be excited for a Malanda-Corujo pairing, provided Corujo comes back healthy. This is not a given; ACLs, while common, are not easy injuries to come back from. They take time and there are often setbacks (usually in the form of muscular strains). Don’t be surprised if it takes a few months to see the pre-injury Corujo. It could even take most of next year.

Once Corujo does get back, this pairing should really complement each other. I’ve long said that Corujo’s biggest weakness was his lack of distribution. This deficit should be covered by Malanda’s on-ball ability.

Malanda, meanwhile, is still learning how to tackle and defend at a high level. Corujo is an aggressive defender, which I know worries some. While his aggressiveness can cause issues, he is a really good tackler and defensive stopper (91st percentile in tackles and tackles won, 96th percentile in tackles in the defensive 3rd, 88th percentile in dribbles contested, 91st percentile in tackles plus clearances). His aggressiveness can get him caught out at times, but, again, I think Malanda’s pace and more balanced defending can help cover for that.

Center-back pairings often come down more to chemistry than talent. Yes, ability is important, but unless you have a generational talent (in which case, he’s not at Charlotte), you need to balance those abilities. I’m very optimistic about Malanda and Corujo doing just that. Even more than that, though, I’m confident in Malanda’s ability, regardless of the partner.

Go Westwood (Old Man)

Editor’s note: this post was written, and set to be published, right before the tragic death of Anton Walkes. It was held back out of respect for him, his family, his friends, his teammates, and all those, including us at The Crown Cast, who mourn his passing. Rest in peace, Anton.

As Charlotte continue their recruitment for the 2023 MLS Season, they announced their biggest signing in name since the transfer of now coach Christian Fuchs by signing Premier League veteran Ashley Westwood from Burnley.

Unlike most of Charlotte’s big moves in their short history, this move was met with more skepticism than many within the club were probably anticipating. Fans raised concerns about the profile of the player. The combination of his age (Westwood will turn 33 early in April) and the fact that he is coming off a major injury (suffered towards the end of the 2021/22 Premier League season) have left people wondering how immediate of a contribution he can make under these circumstances.

Though these concerns are legitimate–and I’m sure will have been well-considered by the recruitment-team–there can be no doubt about the quality of player they are signing and what he could bring to Charlotte’s midfield.

Should he make a full recovery from what was a very serious injury, there are plenty of traits Charlotte fans can look forward to.

The Charlotte Setup

It is unclear what system Head Coach Christian Lattanzio will implement for this season, and his changing of formation throughout last season provides no clear answer.

It seems most likely (based on the systems most commonly used and the squad profile) that Charlotte will play some form of a 4-1-4-1, 4-3-3, or a 4-2-3-1, with the latter being Lattanzio’s ideal set up, at least in my mind. In that system, a likely midfield for that system would be:

Swiderski in the 10 role is likely to continue given his form their last season, paired with the acquisition of Enzo Copetti as a 9. The main question is likely to be who Westwood’s midfield partner will be between Bronico or Jones. I have given Bronico the nod here, but either player would be a good fit next to Westwood, who has played in a midfield 2 beside a variety of players in his career.

Westwood’s Midfield Role

This is a tough one to answer. Because of Westwood’s aforementioned experience of performing different roles in a midfield pair, combined with the fact both Bronico and Jones themselves have played as a 6 and an 8, respectively, we may only get real clarity on how the team will look to allocate those roles once pre-season begins.

Having said that, Westwood himself sees the qualities he should be bringing to the side very clearly, as he described during his media availability on Tuesday.

Regarding his role on the pitch, Westwood said it would be similar to what he did at Burnley – a more box-to-box, creative role.

Advancing a little more forward and playmaking from the midfield.
— Caleb Adams (@itscalebadams) January 17, 2023

Whether this was based on conversations between himself and Lattanzio, or just a candid answer of how he ideally sees his game is unclear, but this “playmaking box-to-box midfield” role could certainly be facilitated by either Bronico or Jones playing with him in a deeper ‘6’ role.

Let’s break down this role further, in his own words:

Playmaking

For regular watchers of the Premier League, they will know “playmaking” and “Burnley” aren’t exactly words that go hand in hand. Under Sean Dyche, they implemented an old-school 4-4-2 “playing the percentages” style based on being incredibly direct with long-distance passing and very aggressive physically throughout the centre of the pitch.

This obviously doesn’t lend itself to much creativity from the midfield pair, however, in Westwood’s case he was still able to find moments where he could show his talent by providing goal-scoring opportunities in a way that didn’t compromise Dyche’s style.

For those familiar with Westwood’s game, him possessing this quality from open play will come as no surprise. He is also a highly productive corner-taker.

In an area of the game that is becoming less and less directly effective, Westwood was able to still bring value to it, pairing a great ball-striking ability with the size advantage Burnley was able to boast over most sides.

Westwood has an incredible ability to be precise with delivering the ball into an area 3-6 yards from goal, as well as beyond the middle of the box. He does so with a high-arcing strike that ensures the ball cannot be defended by any of the players before that area of the box.

Whilst these may not be the conventional areas of “playmaking” that we would associate with say, a Karol Swiderski, this consistency of production still cannot be discounted – especially for a team that was 24th in xAG (expected assisted goals) in MLS last season.

Box-to-Box

When analyzing Westwood as a box-to-box player, you almost have to separate it into two categories.

He has impressive ball carrying in transition to, quite literally, take a team from a defensive situation to a good goalscoring opportunity

He is also able to win the ball in the middle portion of the field, followed by a driving run into the opposition third to create space for others and ultimately create opportunities for himself.

Whichever side of the description you wish to choose, it is clear that Westwood backs up the notion that he is a highly active midfield player who is not only able to be productive defensively through his work rate but also use it to contribute in attack.

Statistically, Westwood stacks up as one of the highest-ranking players in terms of distance covered, finishing as high as 7th in the entire Premier League in distance covered over the full 2019/2020 season.

Though we likely won’t see Westwood amongst the top 10 in distance covered in MLS due to Lattanzio’s much more possession-based style, it will still be just as vital that he’s able to deal comfortably with covering large areas of the field.

As well as being more possession-based, Lattanzio’s style has put an emphasis on width when playing in 4-2-3-1. With the wingers staying wide, naturally, this will create more space for the central midfielders to have to account for, a task I believe Westwood should be firmly up for.

Experience

This is one last area is important to touch on with regard to the Ashley Westwood acquisition.

With Christian Fuchs’ retirement and Harrison Afful re-signing on terms that should see his playing time take a dip, Charlotte was at risk of losing a lot of experience on the field. Lack of experience is hard to quantify but is generally accepted to be very important.

Not only does Westwood serve as a direct replacement to Fuchs as a veteran with a decade’s experience in top-flight European football, but by signing him at age 32 (compared to Fuchs playing the majority of last season at age 36), the club will hope that Westwood will have plenty of good years left to contribute. He should be able to set the tone and the culture as a leader of the players.

All things being considered, this is a really smart signing for both on and off-the-field contributions. I myself am excited to watch him in this constantly improving squad.

A Tale of Two Kamils

Ah, Kamil Jóźwiak. It feels like Charlotte fans either love him or hate him. A once-hyped European talent who had a really good Euro 2020, his time at Derby took some shine off of his promise. Further, having come to Charlotte as a DP, many looked at him to have an immediate impact on the team.

He did not.

As I covered in my preview of him last year (one of my first posts at my old Banks, Beer, and Soccer location), there were a number of factors that gave me pause about Jóźwiak, and I summed it up as such:

At the end of the day, is this transfer worth it? Yes. This squad still lacks depth and it lacks talent. Jóźwiak gives that. While I do have concerns about the profile and his inability so far to consistently produce, he is still only 23.

If we view his previous couple of seasons as heavily impacted by a global pandemic and a disastrously run club–both of which seem likely–then maybe we should view him more as the player coming off of his last season at Lech and Euro 2020. In doing that, it is hard not to be excited.

I still highly recommend anyone who didn’t check that article out do so, as it gives some context to why Derby (and Charlotte) wanted him (also, it’s one of my first, so go easy on me!). To summarize, though, his time in Poland as a young player was very exciting and promising.

That leads us to Jóźwiak with Charlotte. Kamil ended his season with zero goals and 3 assists, off of 1.7 xG and 2.7 xGA. His passing wasn’t awe-inspiring: 73.8% total completion percentage, 87.4% (215/246) on short passing, 73.0% (103/141) on medium passing, and 43.6% (17/39) on long passing. He averaged 3.52 crosses per 90 (45 total). So far this is the profile of a bust, especially for a DP.

Let’s make a quick aside and talk about that DP label, too, shall we? I’ve made this point a number of times (probably too many): it’s not Kamil’s fault that he is a DP. Has he produced at the level that you want from someone who is taking that spot and earning that level of money? Absolutely not. Even the most ardent Jóźwiak supports (and I’m probably among them) wouldn’t say he has. There are 2 things I will say about this, though.

First, he didn’t give himself that label or title. If you have issues with him being a DP–and these issues are valid–blame the FO, not Kamil. Professional athletes have a very short time to make money, so I never begrudge them the opportunity to make it. Further, it’s not our (i.e., the fan’s) money–it’s a (usually) billionaire owner’s money. Why are we taking the billionaire’s side in this debate?

Second, he won’t (or shouldn’t) be a DP for much longer. There was always the option of buying him down and, coupled with the cap going up, he should be bought down. As such, I encourage all to try to evaluate Jóźwiak as a player and not a DP. The question isn’t, is he worth the money? Rather, it’s can he help Charlotte FC compete, win, and challenge for a title?

Kamil appeared in 19 matches for Charlotte FC last year, making 13 starts. He played for 1,151 minutes, or just under 13 90s (12.8 to be exact). FBref has a handy feature where it breaks down where a player played positionally on a per game basis. I’m sure it’s not perfect, however, it can give us some idea of where Jóźwiak was deployed.

Kamil made his debut on 4/30 against Orlando City and came on as a “forward.” He started the next game (5/7 against Inter Miami) as a left midfielder. In his next 9 appearances, Kamil was deployed on the right hand side, listed as a right midfielder or even right back. There is the 5/29 game against Seattle where he appears to have played on the left in addition to the right, but for the most part his deployment is consistently on the right side of the pitch during this part of the season.

Starting with the 8/17 game against NYCFC, Kamil ends the season as our starting left midfielder/winger. He is listed as a “LM,RM” for the home match against NYCFC on 9/10, but the difference is clear: he is no longer a right sided player.

In the end, Kamil has two games labeled as a “forward,” 8 games where he’s being deployed on the right, and 8 games where he’s being deployed on the left. I’m here to tell you, right-side Kamil is useless; left-side Kamil shows real promise.

If we look at Kamil’s first 11 appearances for the club (again, the time when he is mostly a right-sided player), he contributes 0 goals and 0 assists on 1.1 xG and 0.4 xGA. There’s a further caveat to this, though!

Of that 1.1 xG, over half of it (0.6 xG to be specific) comes in one game: 7/3 against Houston. He also had 0.1 xGA in that game. Removing that one game and we have 0.5 xG and 0.3 xGA in 10 appearances. Oof.

In his final 8 appearances–again, from the left–Jóźwiak records 0 goals, but 3 assists (!) off of 0.6 xG and 2.3 (!!!!!!) xGA. Ok, I’m getting a bit carried away with the exclamation points because you still want to see more production, but the point is clear: on the left, Kamil is much more dangerous.

This trend appears in other statistics as well. When looking at Shot-Creating Actions (SCAs) and Goal-Creating Actions (GCAs), Left-Sided Kamil is much better than Right-Sided Kamil. He produced 44 SCAs on the year and 4 GCAs on the year. In his first 11 appearances, he created 21 SCAs and just 1 GCA. In his final 8 appearances, he created 23 SCAs and 3 GCAs. Still not great production, but a definite improvement.

When looking at his passing, he also improves it slightly from the left side: 74.66% compared with 72.84%.

Maybe you’re someone who doesn’t believe in the “stats” and goes by the “eye test.” Well, SofaScore’s rating shows the same type of improvement. Jóźwiak’s average rating for his first 11 games was 6.67, with a high of 7.1 and a low of 6.3. In his final 8 appearances, he had an average rating of 6.96 with a a high of 7.5 and a low of 5.9. That 5.9 was against RBNY on the last weekend when there was nothing to play for and the entire team looked like it would’ve preferred to be anywhere but in New Jersey (I mean, who could blame them, amirite?).

Then we have this heatmap:

Kamil Jóźwiak 2022 heatmap, via SofaScore.

Would you look at that. From the right, Kamil is rarely getting himself into dangerous positions. He’s confined to the touchline and his most consistent touching of the ball is near the halfway line and between the halfway line and penalty box. Importantly, though, it’s not really in the penalty box.

Now look at the left. It’s night and day, really. He’s still near the touchline, but he’s also picking up positions much more centrally. He’s further up the pitch and instead of being clustered in the middle of it, he’s operating near and around the box.

The answer for this change appears to be pretty simple, too. Kamil is right-footed. When deployed on the right, he’s forced to operate like an old-school, traditional winger, where the goal is to drive by players wide, get to the end-line, and make crosses. Think of the way Gaines likes to operate. On the left, though, Kamil is able to act as more of an inverted winger who can take people wide, but will drift inside onto his favored foot.

Now it should be noted that his time at Euro 2020 saw him exclusively operating from the right-hand side and his time with Derby also saw him more commonly on the right. Of course, if we view his time at Derby as a disappointment, we must also acknowledge that it might be because he was not playing where he should be (at least in my estimation). Unfortunately, SofaScore doesn’t have heatmaps for his time in the Polish league.

The other point of discussion for Kamil has often been who should be deployed on the left instead of him. This past year there were probably 3 main candidates for this role: Ben Bender, Andre Shinyashiki, and Yordy Reyna. While all 3 can play as a left-sided midfielder, I don’t believe all can play there in Christian Lattanzio’s system.

First, I’m of the opinion Bender is better when he is deployed more centrally, either as one of a pair of 8s or as a 10. When he is able to take up central positions and then drift into wide spaces (and vice versa), he is much more effective.

Second, Shinyashiki’s scoring ability is good, but it’s clear that Lattanzio, for better or worse, doesn’t see him as a wide player. With how Charlotte operated under CL, this is not necessarily surprising or illogical. Lattanzio prefers quicker wide players who can take players on (think Reyna, Jóźwiak, Gaines, Vargas). Shinyashiki is good, but what he is not is a pacey, tricky winger. The same can be said for Bender.

Thus, we’re really left with Reyna as Jóźwiak’s primary competition for the left side (with reports that his time is over with the club, it’s maybe a bit disingenuous to even include him here). For now, I’m going to ignore Justin’s favorite talking point that Vargas is probably also better on the left. I probably agree with him on this point, but Vargas is so young and has so little data that I don’t think it makes sense to include him in this current discussion (especially since CL insisted he be played on the right this past season).

Anyone who has followed Banks, Beer, and Soccer or The Crown Cast since I’ve joined will know that I am not a Reyna fan. In the proper setup, Reyna can be a good piece, but he’s a moments player who drifts in and out of games. In my opinion, he is most often out of games. He doesn’t run, rarely puts in any defensive effort, and struggles with consistency.

When it comes to Reyna, I am mostly confused to how he became such a fan favorite. People often point to his trickiness and ability to score and/or create scoring opportunities as reasons to why he should be in the side. This supposed ability is simply not there, at least on a consistent basis.

Reyna ended the season with 3 goals and 3 assists. But, Josh, that’s 3 more goals than Jóźwiak! He’s 300% the goalscorer Jóźwiak is! This is true. But what is also true is that those 3 goals came in two games, both of which Charlotte lost. He scored two wonderful goals against Inter Miami and a header versus Chicago in the first minute. What did he do after that in that game?

I will give Reyna his due on his assists. Each of them are lovely balls that are perfectly placed. The ones against Nashville and Columbus are especially beautiful.

Reyna assist versus Nashville, 7/9/22

Reyna assist versus Columbus, 10/5/22

Reyna appeared in 19 games for Charlotte (handy for the Jóźwiak comparison!) and started 10. He totaled 845 minutes and was just under 10 90s (9.4 to be specific). He finished the season with 2.2 xG and 2.2 xGA. So more xG, but less xGA.

He created 36 SCAs and 7 GCAs, which corresponds well to his xG and xGA compared to Kamil (i.e., he creates more goal-scoring chances, but fewer shooting chances). His passing was slightly better percentage-wise than Kamils: 74.9% on the season, 87.1% (115/132) for short passing, 79.4% (81/102) for medium passing, and 55.4% (31/56) for long passing. He put in 4.26 crosses per 90 (40 total).

So far, we honestly have pretty similar players when looking at these 2 when it comes to goalscoring and assisting. What separates Reyna in the minds of many fans, though, is his ability to take people on with the dribble. This isn’t untrue, but this ability is blown way out of proportion. Let’s look at Jóźwiak, Reyna, and Gaines’ possession numbers. I’ve included Gaines as kind of a control player.

Player Name	Successful Dribbles (per 90)	Attempted Dribbles (per 90)	Successful Dribble Percentage	Miscontrols (per 90)	Dispossessed (per 90)
Kamil Jóźwiak	17 (1.33)	43 (3.36)	39.5%	27 (2.11)	15 (1.17)
Yordy Reyna	8 (0.85)	36 (3.83)	22.2%	24 (2.55)	23 (2.45)
McKinze Gaines	17 (1.43)	46 (3.87)	37.0%	33 (2.77)	22 (1.85)

Reyna completed the fewest dribbles, had the lowest successful percentage, and had the most dispossessions. On a per 90 basis, it’s even worse for him. He’s far and away the least successful at dribbles even though he’s attempting them almost as much as Gaines. While Gaines leads this trio in miscontrols per 90, Reyna is far and away the most likely to get dispossessed.

Kamil comes out looking really good in this comparison. He’s the most successful of this trio in terms of percentage, almost as good as Gaines on a per 90 basis, but has far fewer miscontrols and dispossessions on a per 90 basis. Yet I would wager that if you polled 100 Charlotte fans, most would say Reyna is the better dribbler of the two (if not on the entire team).

Reyna doesn’t have a good history of goal contribution to fall back on, especially in recent times. His best season his probably his age 20 season, when he was with Grödig in the Austrian Bundesliga. That season (2014-15), he had 11 goals and 5 assists. His best MLS season is probably 2018 with Vancouver when he was 24. He recorded 6 goals and 9 assists that season. The following season for Vancouver, Reyna had 7 goals and 1 assists. Since that year–3 seasons, 50 appearances, 25 starts, and 2,419 minutes of game time–Reyna has a total of 8 goals and 5 assists. Of course, Reyna’s lack of production is matched, if not surpassed, by Jóźwiak’s. Over the past 3 seasons, Jóźwiak has made 77 appearances, 56 starts, and has 4,795 minutes of game time with just 1 goal and 6 assists to show for it.

So why do I believe in Jóźwiak rather than Reyna? Simply put, age. Jóźwiak is currently 24 while Reyna is 29. We absolutely know what Reyna is while there’s a world where Jóźwiak gets back to his pre-Derby days. For reference, with Lech Poznań, Jóźwiak had 15 goals and 8 assists over 104 appearances (73 starts) and 6,621 minutes of game time. This was during his age 17-22 seasons! I’ll always take younger, talented player over an aging veteran when the production is similar.

Finally, I’ve said it before, but a young player moving countries, learning a new culture and language, at a horribly run club during a global pandemic is not a good gauge of ability. Jóźwiak spent two wasted seasons in England. I won’t assert that his lack of production is 100% the result of these factors, but I don’t think they can be dismissed and shouldn’t be minimized.

I have no idea if Jóźwiak can find the kind of form he had with Lech Poznań again, but the latter half of last season showed there is a useful and talented player in there who is capable of doing so. It’s up to CL and co. to unlock that potential consistently.

Enzo Copetti: Master of Movement

Given Copetti’s jump in form from 2021 to 2022, there will be some wondering how/why this occurred and whether his 2022 goalscoring output will be sustainable going forward.

There are 2 main reasons for this uptick in goalscoring. First, was his positional change.

Under Racing’s previous Head Coach, Juan Antonio Pizzi, Copetti was playing a fairly even share of time in the striker role and on the right wing, which naturally limited the amount of goalscoring opportunities he had. Once Fernando Gago took charge for his first full season in 2022, each game Copetti played was as a number 9, with the exception of one late substitute appearance.

The second comes from the style of play that Gago implemented for the 2022 season. His 4-3-3 system allowed Copetti to be the focal point of a possession based team that looked to create transition-like situations with patient build up and attack mostly in wide areas, something Copetti benefitted from immensely.

Individual Skillset
In many ways, Copetti is a very traditional number 9. Though he may not have raw attributes that stand out in a major way, he is an incredibly clever player who is able to create chances for himself and score goals due in large part to the intelligence he plays with.

Racing vs Tigres July 2022

Something important to note here is the quality of movement from Copetti and the patience to not immediately attack the space at the front post as soon as the ball is in a crossing area. Instead, he times his run perfectly for a first time finish.

The quality of his movement is a huge reason as to why Gago’s approach of attacking from wide areas has been successful.

Racing vs CA Colon October 2022

Notice a similar run from Copetti here to make sure that he receives the ball at the front post whilst on the move, making it easier to turn and shoot than it would be had he received the ball stationary whilst not facing goal.

His quality as a box presence via his movement also makes him a considerable threat in the air. His ability to create space by manipulating the centre halves playing against him gives his teammates great areas to cross the ball into, giving himself a great chance to attack them whilst going towards goal with momentum.

Racing vs CA Central Cordoba July 2022

Again, the beauty in the movement here comes from the patience. It is clear well before the cross comes in that that is the action that will take place. Rather than crashing the box earlier before the cross has been made, Copetti stays a good distance behind and in-between the two central defenders. This serves two main purposes: 1) he is attacking the ball with forward momentum (as stated earlier) and 2) it makes him much more difficult to mark as he maintains that distance behind and equidistant between the defense.

Though great at manipulating defenders, Copetti isn’t beholden to this method of attacking. What makes him such a threat as a #9 is that he is able to make the alternative run based on the shaping of the defense/the space that is being offered to him.

River Plate vs Racing February 2022

Again, Copetti is smartly occupying the equidistant space between the centre halves, the difference in movement this time though comes from him attacking the space left between the goalkeeper and defenders before the cross is delivered. Once the ball is received out wide and Copetti realises the defenders are happy to stay level with him-rather than a few yards off him like in the earlier clip-he gives a quick look to see if the goalkeeper’s positioning is compensating for the space in behind (in this case would mean the goalkeeper being further to his left and at least a couple yards further from his line.) Once Copetti realizes the goalkeeper is not positioned further off his line, he makes his run, triggering the ball to be played into that area by the wide player. This instinct to create chances with his own movement in behind is no fluke.

Lanús vs Racing October 2022

In this instance, the attack is more vertical, but the run itself still takes advantage of an aggressive defensive line and opens up the passing lane where it otherwise wouldn’t be available. With this ability to understand how the defensive line is defending shape-wise, Copetti is able to help his teammates create opportunities for him and at times, be his own best playmaker.

Impact on Charlotte
The first major difference to point out is obviously the change in formation. Racing stuck rigidly to their 4-3-3 shape, whilst Charlotte under Lattanzio experimented with plenty of setups, without many of them even resembling a 4-3-3 setup too closely. Charlotte did play a 4-3-3 more commonly under Miguel Angel Ramirez, although this was with a different role being asked of the centre forward.

Charlotte vs Inter Miami May 2022

With the ball out wide with the full back in a 4-3-3 set up, you can see that instead of looking to get into the box himself, Charlotte centre forward Karol Swiderski is instead looking for the ball on the edge of the box so that he can facilitate the late runs from the wingers/midfielders crashing the box.

This would be the same in build up play. Whether it was playing to the individual’s strength or a function of the system, Swiderski would always be dropping deep as the wingers and/or a midfield player (most notably Ben Bender) would run in attack ahead of him.

In contrast, the lone striker in Christian Lattanzio’s 4-2-3-1/4-1-4-1 systems would actually perform a much more similar role to Copetti’s with Gago’s Racing, despite the change in formation.

Charlotte vs New York City September 2022

Rather than looking to come deep and receive the ball, Daniel Rios makes that run in behind the defense, playing in much more of a ‘poachers’ role as the lone striker.

Charlotte also became much more threatening from open play crosses, which paid off multiple times throughout the 2022 season. These couple of examples are particularly similar to some of the opportunities created for Copetti for Racing.

Charlotte vs Orlando August 2022

Though this goal is scored by right winger McKinze Gaines, you can see how the space he is occupying in the box once the ball is played to him is very similar to the spaces Copetti likes to be in (i.e., in between the space of the two defenders).

Here, again, we see Swiderski occupy this same space for a headed goal from an open play cross.

Charlotte vs Nashville July 2022

Given Daniel Rios’ recent exit from the club, it’s easy to see how Copetti will come in and be a like for like switch, offering Lattanzio exactly what he’s looking for out of his lone striker. With Swiderski now likely in the 10 role in this system going forward, Charlotte will have invested serious money into their middle 2 attacking pair.

If Copetti brings his 2022 form over to Charlotte with him and Swiderski continues where he left off as a playmaker from last season, they should see a strong amount of goals in return on their investment.

Buy, Sell, Hold: The Midfield

The midfield might be the weakest area of Charlotte currently. Even amongst the guys, there was a fair bit of divisiveness about who is the future of this club. Part of this is due to a fair bit of youth among this part of the pitch (think Bender, McNeill, Hegardt). Part of it is due to the large amount of turnover that has happened since this club’s inception (think the departure of Ortiz and Franco).

Editor’s note: Josh’s love for McKinzie Gaines is, in part, due to the departure of Franco, who he also irrationally loved.

Pray for the man.

As a reminder from the first part of this series-Buy, Sell, Hold: The Attack-here is the premise of this series:

Now, onto the premise of this exercise. The goal of this is to imagine that in 2 to 3 years, Charlotte FC are competing for playoff success. This means they are making the playoffs, winning games in the playoffs, and hopefully competing for the Cup. And if they are doing that, do you “buy, sell, or hold” the statement that a current player will be a valuable member of the squad. If you think they will, they are a “buy.” If you think they won’t, they are are “sell.” If you think we just don’t have enough data, they are a “hold.”

Some further “rules” about this:

A “buy” player would be someone who is a good starter not only for the club but also MLS as a whole OR an important bench piece.
Important bench pieces would be players who are consistently coming off of the bench (20-30 minutes a game on a regular basis) or regularly spelling starters in Cup games or during the season.
- Examples of important bench pieces include 3rd CBs, 4th midfielders, and 3rd (maybe even 4th) choice wingers/wide players for our current way of playing. These distinctions depend on the tactics and formations you play. For example, a 3rd CB is a requirement for a team playing a back 3, so a 4th–probably 5th–CB would then be an important bench piece in those teams.
The goal of this exercise is not to say whether we like a player, think they are worth the salary, or hold more value to the club if they were sold. The question is simply: if he’s on the team in 2-3 years, is he a starter and is he a good starter for a playoff caliber team? Sell-on value will not be considered.
There won’t be a ton of stats in these pieces. We definitely plan on having some deep analytical dives into many of these players in the future, so stay tuned!

Brandt Bronico

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Buy	Buy	Buy	Buy

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Brandt Bronico	27	2,812 (31.2)	1 (1.7)	1 (0.6)

Arguably the face of the club, Bronico was the easiest choice amongst this group. It’s a strong buy across the board.

Euan: I’ve spoken about how highly I think of Bronico before, so it should come as no surprise that I have him as a “buy” here. Last season he was able to showcase that he is one of the best lone 6’s in MLS, as well as his versatility in other systems (think of his time at the end of the season in more advanced areas on the field). His near ever-presence under Lattanzio would indicate that he will continue to be a major part of Charlotte’s team in the coming season

Justin: I think Brandt is a solid bench guy for us 2 years from now. I love his passion, and I love that he can play 2 of 3 positions across the midfield…but I think he should be first off the bench and rotation if we are challenging for the League.

Josh: Agreed with Justin on this. Bronico is the player I was most wrong about last season and far exceeded any reasonable expectations. Lattanzio needs to learn how to rest him a bit more because he was definitely leggy at the end of the season. His engine is by far his greatest strength, so him being overplayed can’t continue to happen. With that said, if you truly want to compete for the MLS cup, you may need better starting options. Bronico being your first choice back-up CM who can play as a 6 or 8 is not the worst thing though. That’s an incredibly useful piece to either add a dimension to a game or close it out.

Derrick Jones

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Hold	Buy	Sell	Buy

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Derrick Jones	25	944 (10.5)	1 (1.4)	0 (0.1)

Derrick Jones is a soccer player in a linebacker body with the mentality of a hockey enforcer. The boys were across the board with this one.

Justin: Derrick is better than Brandt at the 6, but worse everywhere else. He’s a situational guy, but good at that situation.

Euan: Jones arrived with a very impressive statistical composite as well as a play-style that is very easy on the eye. Stylish on the ball and an ability to cover space well, he is an inticing player with decent MLS experience for a 25 year old. Could easily see a scenario where he is in the player of the year conversation in 2023.

Josh: The Debbie downer of the bunch and the only one to “sell,” I am a fan of Jones. However, his greatest attributes-defensive positioning and physicality-does not make up for his most glaring weakness: passing. Jones is a bit too slow on the ball and lacks range, which limits his upside. He’s an oddly good dribbler for a player his size and did seem to get better overall as the year went on. If-and it’s a big if-he can improve his passing, there’s a definite starter. He’s a “sell” for me but as an important bench piece. I believe he could be a very valuable 5th or 6th midfielder (on a team that plays a midfield 3) on a squad. The premise is can he be a starter or important rotational piece on a championship level squad-that I don’t see.

Jordy Alcívar (YDP)

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Sell	Sell	Hold	Hold

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Jordy Alcívar	23	1,019 (11.3)	1 (0.8)	1 (1.7)

One of the most divisive players on the squad, Jordy has given us the highest of highs (the Olympico) and the lowest of lows (just vanishing mid-game). No one was ready to buy fully into Alcívar, but Logan and Justin are ready to sell.

Josh: I bank on youth and talent, and Jordy has both. A just turned 23-year-old who has an international cap to his name (albeit 15 minutes in a friendly…), the talent is real. My preference is for Alcívar to play deeper in the midfield, as I think his passing range, vision, and ability to find space between lines is very good. As he gets closer to the opponent’s box his decision making becomes poorer. The big question with Jordy is does he want to be here and play the type of ball Lattanzio wants. He was a fixture for MAR, but fell out of the side under CL. When he did see the pitch, he was largely unproductive. If Lattanzio can motivate Alcívar, there’s huge potential. He’s a Young DP for a reason and you don’t give up on that type of talent too easily.

Justin: I know he is young, but he just seems surpassed at every midfield position both in skill and in managerial preference by other players.

Euan: Alcívar’s first season in 2022 was a real mixed bag. One of the most impressive players under MAR in a system much more suited to his skillset, he saw his minutes take a huge dip once Lattanzio came in and looked towards other players to play in his re-structured midfield. I am fan of what he is able to bring to a football team, but given his system dependency, this has to be a “hold.” It would not be a shock if he was not on the team come next season.

Chris Hegardt

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Hold	Hold	Hold	Sell

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Chris Hegardt	20	1,030 (11.4) - USL 19 (0.2) - MLS	3 (n/a) - USL 0 (0.0) - MLS	4 (n/a) - USL 0 (0.4) - MLS

The little seen loanee, Hegardt’s stats are broken up between his USL time and (very brief) MLS time.

Justin: Personally I am incredibly high on Hegardt. I think he has a chance to be a creative, passing maestro in the midfield. But that may very well be crazy confidence in a great story, rather than based on actual fact. I did think he was best on the pitch in that Montreal game he was forced into due to COVID absences.

Josh: Similarly to Alcívar, I like to bet on age and talent. As Justin mentioned, he had an impressive cameo in the Montreal game, though, as an unknown quantity forced into action due to exceptional circumstances, I’m sure Montreal were barely prepared for him. Unfortunately, I have not seen him play for the Independence, but 3 goals and 4 assists for a 19-20 year old is nothing to scoff at, even at a lower level. Need to see him force his way into more MLS time this year to be fully sold on his future here.

Euan: Chris Hegardt has a very strong career ahead of him. A standout player on the Charlotte Independance at only 20 years old, he was able to play regular football and develop his game, which is hopefully what happens again in 2023 with another loan deal arranged. The next 2-3 years may come to quick for Chris to be a top level MLS contributor, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him as an important squad player somewhere in the league in the next decade.

Ben Bender

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Buy	Hold	Hold	Hold

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Ben Bender	21	1,645 (18.3)	3 (2.7)	6 (3.3)

Editor’s Note: Anyone who listed to the audio version of this knows Logan’s opinion. As strongly as Josh feels about Gaines being a future contributor is how strongly Logan feels about Bender.

Euan: Another player who had a very different first half to their season compared to their second. It took only a few games for Ben Bender to cement himself as a fan favourite, but by the end of the year he had only played in 1 of Charlotte’s last 5 matches. This start was also a start that Lattanzio was forced into giving Bender due to the rules surrounding the penultimate game vs Columbus. My fascination with Ben as a player comes not only from his status as a number 1 overall draft selection but from the confusing nature of his play. The intuition of a player way beyond his years and an incredible eye for space for himself, as well as how to create it for others, makes it all the more frustrating that his technical ability has been so inconsistent. Bender is only some strong coaching away from being a major contributor for Charlotte, but, for now, given the uncertainties that surround the 21 year old’s development, it has to be a “hold.”

Logan: He’s the only player on the team who has wold class potential with an attribute (namely, his passing). He’s the strongest of buys.

Justin: He will be good, but I’m not sure where he is best on the pitch for us. He isn’t quite physical enough yet for the 8. He’s not quite decisive enough yet for the 10. And he’s definitely not defensive enough for the 6. It feels like he wants to play a wide midfield role off the left, almost like Pogba at Juventus. But the current system doesn’t really support that. I’m worried the system will drive him out.

Josh: Bender’s talent is real, especially when it comes to passing. I do think his on field contributions are a bit overblown (yes, 6 assists did lead us as a club, but that’s more an indictment of us than a compliment of him) and the fact that he was a #1 overall pick skews his real impact in the minds of American fans (in my opinion). The main issue is his physicality, or lack thereof. He’s too easily pushed off the ball when under pressure and lacks defensive intensity. With that said, there were definite improvements with the defensive side of his game as the year went on. He never became “good” at defending, but he improved with knowing where he needed to be, if never really improving in actually be effective once there. Adding 10-15 pounds of muscle would help and I need him to follow Derrick Jones around all offseason so he can learn how to use his body better. If the defensive improvement continues, he’s our 10 (or maybe the more attack minded of a dual 8). If he doesn’t, he’s a useful player, but not a star.

Quinn McNeill

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Hold	Hold	Sell	Sell

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Quinn McNeill	24	664 (7.4)	1 (0.5)	1 (0.2)

Josh: I liked his contributions when he was forced into action and he’s a bit more technical than people give him credit for. With that said, at 24 already, I don’t see it. A useful squad player for sure, but not someone who is going to be a major contributor on a title-challenging team. He’s a poor man’s Bronico. I think best case scenario for him, he becomes another team’s Bronico (i.e., late-ish bloomer who surprising after getting an extended run). I don’t see it happening here.

Justin: He had some moments this season. I think maybe there is a serviceable 8 in there somewhere? But I need to see more progress. This is the closest hold to a sell for me.

Euan: Making his debut in MLS a couple months before his 24th birthday, McNeill was able to showcase his value as a willing off-ball midfielder who would also be able to cope in a possession heavy system should it be demanded off him. Though I think regularly starting for a successful team in the league may be a step too far for the player, I can imagine many coaches being enamoured with some of his performances from the 2022 season, leaving Charlotte in a tough position to retain his services due to no guarantee of major first team minutes.

Nuno Santos

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Hold	Buy	Hold	Hold

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Nuno Santso	23	159 (1.8)	1 (0.7)	0 (0.0)

Euan: Due to only seeing limited minutes from Nuno, I think a “hold” is the only way to go. I would’ve also been a “hold” had I been basing this solely off the game-film I watched from him in Portugal. I would advise anyone to watch those games themselves if they’d be interested in seeing a potential tactical blueprint for how to get the perceived ‘best’ out of the player.

Justin: I know we didn’t see him much. And Świderski at the 10 makes this more difficult (another reason I’m a “sell” on Świderski). But with what I saw-the passing range and vision, the first touch, the goal scoring touch-I am very high on him. My ideal midfield next year has Jones, Santos, and Bronico as the starters.

Josh: I was really tempted to have this as a “buy,” as I think the pure talent is at the high end for MLS. However, having seen so little of him, I have to have it as a “hold.” Whereas Justin sees him as a 10, I’m not so sure. Based on the data I saw when he first came over, I thought that would be his position too, but I’ve liked him further back. The role Bronico was playing at the end of the season is one that intrigues me for Santos, i.e., a player who links up, makes forward runs into the box, and attempts line-breaking passes. That role is not one I’m sold on for Bronico and Santos’ brief appearances make me think he could do it better. It also seems like he could play the 10, but whereas Justin wants Jones to remain in the starting lineup, I’d be tempted to try a midfield of Bronico-Santos-Świderski. There’s a lot of attacking potential in there. The question is if there’s enough defensive stability. I’m also someone who would prefer to lose 3-2 than 1-0, so take that as you will.

Conclusion

Regardless of who you see as the future of this midfield, I think it’s safe to say there are a myriad of questions that need to be answered. There’s definite talent amongst the members, but serious questions as well. If you’re optimistic, the positional flexibility of its members allows for tactical adjustments. If you’re pessimistic, you might view this flexibility as a lack of definitive talent (e.g., jack of all trades, master of none scenario). Time will tell.

Buy, Sell, Hold: The Attack

As Charlotte head into the offseason, the obvious questions on the minds of fans are going to be: who will be here next year? Who will leave? More importantly, though, who should leave? I think it’s important to say that we can’t keep the same squad that just missed the playoffs. Some of our favorite players will leave or be supplanted.

A couple things we here at the Crown Cast want to quickly say about this exercise: we support all Charlotte players no matter what. As long as a player is on the squad, we will actively hope and root for them to do well! Our goal in talking about “selling” a player is not to denigrate the person, but rather the product we see on the pitch.

Some further “rules” about this:

A “buy” player would be someone who is a good starter not only for the club but also MLS as a whole OR an important bench piece.
Important bench pieces would be players who are consistently coming off of the bench (20-30 minutes a game on a regular basis) or regularly spelling starters in Cup games or during the season.
- Examples of important bench pieces include 3rd CBs, 4th midfielders, and 3rd (maybe even 4th) choice wingers/wide players for our current way of playing. These distinctions depend on the tactics and formations you play. For example, a 3rd CB is a requirement for a team playing a back 3, so a 4th–probably 5th–CB would then be an important bench piece in those teams.
The goal of this exercise is not to say whether we like a player, think they are worth the salary, or hold more value to the club if they were sold. The question is simply: if he’s on the team in 2-3 years, is he a starter and is he a good starter for a playoff caliber team? Sell-on value will not be considered.
There won’t be a ton of stats in these pieces. We definitely plan on having some deep analytical dives into many of these players in the future, so stay tuned!

Without further ado, time to get people angry! All members of the site–Logan, Justin, Josh, and Euan–will be giving feedback.

Vinicius Mello

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Hold	Hold	Hold	Hold

Name	Age	Total Season Mins (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Vinicius Mello	20	n/a	n/a	n/a

Mello is the easiest and most obvious decision of this group and there was no divergent opinion.

Euan summed it up the best: Charlotte probably anticipated that Mello would play no major role in the 2022 season as part of his development plan. However, having paid a not-insignificant amount of money for him, you’d expect his chances of playing in 2023 would be much higher as he tries to make his way through a busy position group in the squad.

Kerwin Vargas

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Hold	Hold	Hold	Hold

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Kerwin Vargas	20	633 (7.0)	0 (0.9)	0 (1.1)

Again, holds across the board from the guys. Vargas is youthful and full of potential, but is also extremely raw.

Josh: Vargas’ delivery out wide from dead balls is extremely dangerous and exciting, however, when it comes to live-ball actions there is still a lot of growth to be seen. He often looks unsure about what he should do once he gets into dangerous positions and often “hits and hopes” with the ball.

Justin: My major issue with Vargas is he’s better on the left side of the pitch currently than the right, but not as good as Jóźwiak overall-at least at this point in his development. The question then becomes will he have the opportunity to develop properly?

Euan: There just haven’t been enough minutes for him this season to come to a strong conclusion about him. The 2023 season should be telling and he should be one of the most interesting players to watch.

Logan: His ability to create space for teammates is really good, especially for a young player. With that said, the space isn’t getting utilized and he isn’t providing end product. It’s something that will have to improve quickly.

Andre Shinyashiki

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Buy	Buy	Buy	Hold

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Andre Shinyashiki	27	844 (9.4)	6 (3.6)	0 (0.3)

Our first point of contention. While none of the guys view Andre as a “sell,” Euan hasn’t bought in quite yet.

Euan: One of the most polarizing players in Charlotte’s squad, which by its nature means it’s hard to have anything but a “hold” for him going into next season. A very impressive goal output left people confused as to why he was not able to feature more regularly for the team. The nature of his fit in Lattanzio’s system meant that it did make sense for his role to be predominantly coming off the bench in particular game states. A bench role is best for him and it is hard to “sell” someone who had such a strong goalscoring record. Additionally, he is one of the few players on the team to have ever regularly featured on a strong MLS team (2021 Colorado Rapids).

Justin: He’s too good at scoring goals. He deserves more time, but he bangs in goals at an incredible rate when he does get minutes.

Josh: What position is he? Lattanzio doesn’t seem to see him as a striker or a wide player or a CAM. At least not as a starter. The goalscoring is too hard to ignore and a super-sub bench player is a valuable thing to have. Having recently signed a new deal, you would think he would be promised more playing time than he got and a better role than super-sub. It would be nice to see him get a run of starts to see if he can be a starter for this club.

Yordy Reyna

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Yordy Reyna	29	845 (9.4)	3 (2.2)	3 (1.9)

The first sell might be one of the more divisive decisions from the panel. Going by the thoughts that are seen on social media and heard in the supporters’ section, the guys might be in the minority here.

Justin: He’s a showboater, and here for himself. You can’t knock his shooting technique, but he doesn’t do all the little things that Jóźwiak does, especially when it comes to tracking back and supporting the defense.

Josh: He’s a “moments” player who can do some incredible things on the pitch, but rarely does so for an entire game. People have overestimated his goalscoring ability (it’s only 3 goals, and 2 came in one game). They also overestimate his dribbling ability (1st percentile for successful dribble %) and he’s a bad passer. He’ll get you a wonder goal once in a while, but you can find better, more consistent players easily. We’ll always have Miami!

Euan: Like with previous seasons in his career, Reyna has managed impressive output despite inconsistency in his playing time. This may lead many to think that he has an important role to play for the club going forward. However, it is hard to envision a team having much success whilst regularly playing someone like Reyna, despite all the obvious talent he brings to the table. Happy to have him around next season but wouldn’t expect him to be here after his contract expires in 2023.

McKinze Gaines

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Hold	Buy	Buy	Hold

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
McKinze Gaines	24	1,073 (11.9)	1 (1.8)	4 (3.9)

Editor’s note: Josh can not be objective when it comes to Gaines and has the only valid opinion about this.

A bit of mixed bag with Gaines with 2 holds and 2 buys, though not all buys are the same.

Euan: Succesful teams at any level will more often than not have a McKinze Gaines type in their squad. A pacey winger with defensive workrate who prefers to play outverted and threaten the by-line. It’s a dream for any coach that is looking to attack large spaces and play with off-ball intensity. His output and general play is too frustrating for him to be an outright “buy” but I’m still willing to bet that he can be a very useful player at MLS level going forward. (Editor’s note: Euan is a fool and shouldn’t be trusted).

Justin: He’s still young and, like Jóźwiak, I like his upward trend at the end of the season. He’s always been able to get in behind defenses, but his last ball has improved. (Editor’s note: Justin is amazingly brilliant and speaks the truth.)

Logan: He’s not young enough to be a project and we can’t spend 3 years developing him. Moving forward, Gaines should have more than 1 option in the box; he won’t have excuses for not getting better numbers. If he can truly add end product to his passing, he’ll be a nailed on starter for us. If he can’t, he’ll have to go. (Editor’s note: Logan is a quack and hasn’t a clue what he is talking about.)

Josh: Gaines is by far our best right-sided winger and should have been playing over Vargas at the end of the year. His pace is undeniable and his ability to marry that pace with well-timed runs is unmatched on this team. His crossing ability has been much maligned this year, but for the vast majority of the season, he had 1 option in the box (as Logan rightly pointed out). As the season neared its end and with the inclusion of players like Nuno Santos, Świderski’s switch to the 10, and Bronico being pushed up the pitch, he started to have more options in the box and the results followed. He was tied for 2nd on the team in assists (though, admittedly, that might say more about the issues of the team than the play of Gaines) and those came at the end of the year. If you expect a winger to be able to consistently pick out 1 teammate surrounded by multiple defenders, you’re being unrealistic. Finally, while he’s not young in years, he is in game time. Let him play on the right for a full year with players like Santos, Byrne, and Malanda and watch him flourish. (Editor’s note: By far the most knowledgeable member of staff.)

Kamil Jóźwiak

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Buy	Buy	Buy	Hold

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Kamil Jóźwiak	24	1,151 (12.8)	0 (1.7)	3 (2.6)

Jóźwiak is probably one of the most divisive players on the squad, though not amongst the guys. Only Euan sees him as a hold, while the others have become believers based on his end of year performance.

Justin: He’s trending in the right direction, and he brings an aggressiveness and physicality that I love. He does all the little things-getting back on defense, pressing high, making the unheralded run-that won’t be seen in a stat box but is necessary for a modern wide player.

Josh: Jóźwiak on the right is an immediate sell. Jóźwiak on the left is what we thought he was. Tides go in, tides go out; you can’t explain that. In all seriousness, he’s a player adjusting to a new country and league after having spent his first years outside of his home country in England during a global pandemic for a club that was in absolute disarray. The talent and tools are there, along with the effort. Keep him on the left and I think we see the guy from the last 2 months of the season for the entire year.

Euan: It’s a hold for Jozwiak based mainly off of his pedigree and the 10 or so games I was able to watch of him in preparation for his arrival in Charlotte. His performance last season was underwhelming for a DP but understandable given his rough fit in the team’s system. A fairly strong finish to the season will hopefully be a sign of things to come for Charlotte, but I think his future success at the club is just as reliant on Lattanzio’s adaptability as it is on the player himself. (Editor’s note: the point about Jóźwiak being a DP is a touch point for a lot of Jóźwiak detractors. It’s not a non-issue but there are two important points: 1) he can, and probably will be, bought down from that and 2) don’t blame the player for that, blame the front office evaluation.)

Daniel Ríos

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Hold	Sell	Sell	Sell

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Daniel Ríos	27	1,417 (15.7)	7 (6.4)	1 (1.6)

Three sells and Logan on an island.

Josh: Sell him today. Sell him tomorrow. Sell him, sell him, sell him. I have a reputation to keep and I will! Ríos’ end to the season was unreal, amazing, wonderful and completely unsustainable. At 27, we know what Daniel Ríos is: a good professional who should be your 3rd choice striker at best. His best attributes are probably his positioning for tap ins and hold up play. Both are legitimately useful, but other players are better at it, especially when it comes to hold up play. It’s not that Ríos can’t be a useful piece, but rather than you need to have a better version if you want to be truly competitive.

Logan: I fully understand that this hold is based on his recent performances this year, but there are important factors in it. Most importantly, Lattanzio has backed him enough that he needs time to be proven right or wrong. When he says Ríos is a “natural goalscorer” and then he ends the season like he did, he deserves a further chance.

Euan: After a strong finish to the season, many will look at Ríos as a no brainer to be an important piece going forward. For me, I think he provides value as a focal point in some systems and is a good depth player for a competing side. Whether he can be the main number 9 for a side with title ambitions remains to be seen and I’m doubtful he can be that. I believe we’ll likely have our answer around the mid-point of the 2023 season (should he stay healthy and be playing regularly).

Justin: Don’t trust the recent goal output. He’s the most replaceable part of the front line.

Karol Świderski

Logan	Justin	Josh	Euan
Sell	Sell	Buy	Buy

Name	Age	Total Season Minutes (# of 90s)	Goals (xG)	Assists (xA)
Karol Świderski	25	2,458 (27.3)	10 (9.2)	4 (2.8)

Ending with the most divisive. While most of these guys have been holds, holds/sells, or holds/buys, Świderski has no middle ground.

Euan: Undoubtedly Charlotte’s best player. Simultaneously the club’s best striker and playmaker. Whether Lattanzio plans to keep him in the #10 role going forward or not will be one of the biggest questions of the off season, but this is an easy “buy.”

Justin: I want to be clear, he’s a sell as a striker. He might be an effective 10 going forward, but he’s not a striker for us. He’s poor up top by himself, and we don’t play a top 2.

Logan: What is he? If he stays as a cornerstone for this club, he’s a sell. He doesn’t have a superpower that you need from a player in his position. If he is your 2nd striker or backup striker, he’s useful. If he’s a “talisman,” it has to be a sell because he won’t take us to where we want to go.

Josh: In a team that struggled to score all year, he had 10 goals. None were penalty kicks. I’m still not convinced he can be a #10, but that position allows him to fulfill his desire to drop back in a way that makes more sense for the team. His passing ability is underrated by many and, while I agree that his finishing can be frustrating, the talent is very real. There is a big question of whether he needs to play with another striker, but I think the lack of talent around him for much of the year is just as likely a reason for his struggles with us as a lone striker as anything else.

Editor’s note: Świderski is the prime example of why we took valuation out of this conversation. There is some question about how much he will play at the World Cup, but it seems likely he will get some minutes (maybe even a good amount). If he were to have a good WC and an offer of $15m came in (that was a rumored price), you have to take the money. Still feels unlikely that kind of money would come in for him.

Conclusion

It’s a work in progress up top. It’s safe to say that there’s no sure-fire, can’t miss player on this team. But the vast majority of our frontmen are young and talented.

Next up will be the midfield, where reinforcements are desperately needed.

The Columbus Preview, Part II Redux

Editor’s Note: Most of this information is taken from my first Part II preview, however, I have updated the numbers and other information to match the current state of Columbus. If it looks familiar to what you saw before the first attempt at this game, this is why.

Well here we are. With some help elsewhere (GO ORLANDO!), two wins and we’re in.

There’s not much to say about the lead up to this game other than we have no wiggle room. It’s a win or we’re out. We’ll be shorthanded, but we’ll have just over 74 minutes to make this happen. Let’s get it.

All stats from FBref.com

Team	Possession	Points (standings)	WhoScored team rating (SofaScore team rating)
Charlotte FC	53.1%	41 (9th in the East)	6.53 (6.79)
Columbus Crew	52.5%	45 (8th in the East)	6.68 (6.90)

All stats from FBref.com

Team	Shots per game	Shots on target per game	Goals for (xG)	Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC	11.25	4.03	40 (38.1)	48 (42.1)
Columbus Crew	13.28	4.09	43 (39.3)	32 (38.2)

The biggest thing that jumps out is the amount of shots that Columbus take. They are actually 6th in the league in this respect, although it hasn’t necessarily translated to a huge goal return. As we will see below, though, they have some seriously good attackers.

The rating systems of SofaScore and WhoScored both “like” Columbus better, but to my eyes these are two very evenly matched teams, IF both were able to play their best lineups. Columbus will be able to do that; Charlotte will not.

Lucas Zelarayán

TL;DR: Zelarayán is really, really, REALLY good. You knew that though.

My Armenian compatriot has been a menace to the league since he joined Columbus from UANL of Liga MX in 2020. In that COVID-shortened season, Zelarayán had 6 goals and 2 assists in just 16 appearances. He followed that up with a 12-goal, 4 assist campaign last year in 32 appearances. He currently has 9 goals and 6 assists in 27 appearances.

His goals last year were an aberration for him, historically, but I’m not sure they’re an aberration for him for MLS. I will say he is someone who consistently seems to over perform his xG (2020: 6 Gs, 0 PKs, 2.8 xG, 2.0 npxG; 2021: 12 Gs, 1 PK, 6.5 xG, 5.7 npxG; 2022: 9 Gs, 1 PK, 4.9 xG, 4.2 npxG). Some players just do this.

Zelarayán began his career at Club Atlético Belgrano in the Argentinian Primera División. Through 2 seasons at Belgrano, he had 46 appearances (45 starts) and scored 9 goals and 7 assists; he was 21 and 22 years old in those seasons.

He moved to UANL in 2015. He only made 13 appearances for Tigres in 2015-16, only scoring once and assisting once. This is by far his worst season as a professional. He followed that season up with a 32-appearances, 24-start campaign, in which he had 6 goals and 6 assists. He made back-to-back 18-appearance seasons in 2017-18 and 2018-19, but only had 4 starts in 2017-18 and 14 starts in 2018-19. He had 3 goals and 1 assist in 2017-18 and 5 goals and 5 assists in 2018-19. He made 15 appearances (8 starts) for UANL in 2019-20, scoring 4 goals and getting 1 assist. He joined Columbus in December 2019.

Based on his performances in MLS, this is a consistent double-digit scorer. If 2020 hadn’t been shortened due to COVID, I think Zelarayán probably hits double-digit goals. He needs just one more this year to do that and he did miss a few games. Basically, Zelarayán’s new normal seems to be about 10 goals per year with 4+ assists. He is already 30, so it’ll be interesting to see how long he keeps this peak up, but I would imagine he has a good 3 years left in him, at least.

When looking at his heatmaps, he’s everywhere. I also think they show why he’s been more productive in MLS than he was in Liga MX. Specifically, UANL was using him in more wide positions. For example, look at the 2018/19 Liga MX Apertura heatmap below.

Zelarayán heatmap, 2018/19 Liga MX Apertura, via SofaScore — Zelarayán heatmap, 2018/2019, via SofaScore

That is not the same role at all. Zelarayán may just be better suited to MLS than Liga MX or he may be being used correctly now; it’s probably a mixture of both. Regardless, his move to CAM with Columbus has been the right one.

The heatmaps also show an increase in his possession of the ball. This is born out in the numbers too, as he’s gone from 54.2 touches/90 in 2020 and 61.5 touches/90 last year to 70.03 touches/90 this year. His live-ball touches are up to 61.60 touches/90 this year compared with 52.2 last year. Additionally, he’s carrying the ball more (53.26 carries/90 this year compared with 46.1 last year; 8.05 progressive carries/90 this year compared with 6.19 last year), being targeted more (59.75 targets/90 this year compared with 53.6 last year), and receiving the ball more (52.46 receptions/90 this year compared with 42.5 last year; 9.31 progressive passes received/90 this year compared with 8.66 last year). In short, Columbus has realized he’s f*****g good and is getting him the ball as much as possible.

Zelarayán passing percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days via FBref.com

Somewhat surprisingly, Zelarayán isn’t necessarily elite at passing. Over the past 365 days, here are his passing percentiles against other MLS CAMs and wingers. Look, these aren’t bad numbers by any stretch, but the poor completion percentages are notable.

Now, I do believe these percentages are a result of his ambition in passing, rather than a lack of talent. When you compare his completion percentages to other areas (key passes, attempts for any distance, passes into the penalty or final 3rd, progressive passes), what you see is a player who isn’t afraid to try the difficult pass. He simply doesn’t play it safe and, as a result, he contributes to the attack in very meaningful ways. Sure his short passing percentage (20th percentile), medium passing percentage (59th percentile), and long passing percentage (38th percentile) all look bad, but his xA is in the 96th percentile, his SCA is in the 97th percentile, and his GCA is in the 95th percentile. This shows a player who is going to try for the killer pass, not the safe option. It’s exactly what you want from a 10.

Elsewhere, Zelarayán’s numbers are elite. He’s in the 87th percentile for goals, although only 51st percentile for xG.

Zelarayán takes his shots from a long way out: 23.40 yards, which is good for the 3rd percentile. Zelarayán is taking a lot of shots from distance and a lot of shots in general (95th percentile, 3.29 shots per 90). This frequent shooting and shooting from long distances will naturally drive down his shots on target percentage (55th percentile, 34.6% per 90). I don’t think you necessarily want him to stop taking these shots, as it’s clearly working for him. Additionally, some players just outperform what the numbers say they should be doing. He may very well be one of them.

In addition to his passing ability, assist making, and goal-scoring, Zelarayán is also a phenomenal dribbler. He’s in the 99th percentile for dribbles completed (3.41 per 90), the 98th percentile for dribbles attempted (5.77 per 90), the 80th percentile for successful dribble percentage, the 99th percentile for players dribbled past and the 93rd percentile for nutmegs. Unsurprisingly with these dribbling stats, he draws a lot of fouls (97th percentile).

Defensively, Zelarayán is–who cares. Legitimately, his numbers aren’t good, but I don’t care, Columbus probably doesn’t care, and you shouldn’t either. Zelarayán is an MLS version of prime Mesut Özil. You don’t ask or care if that player defends. He’s in the squad to score and assist. Zelarayán obviously does that exceedingly well.

In short, as an attacking midfielder, Zelarayán is about as good as you’ll get, especially in MLS. He’s going to be a nightmare for Bronico, Walkes, and company to deal with, especially since he’s going to pop up all over the pitch.

Cucho

Columbus appears to have done some really good work getting Juan Camilo Hernández Suárez, or Cucho for short.

The 23-year-old Colombian began his career at CD América in the Colombian Primera A, where he was on loan from Spanish side Granada. He made only 13 appearances and had only 2 assists in those appearances, but was only 17 years old. He would never appear for Granada.

He was sold to Watford in 2017 and then sent out on loan. First, he moved to Huesca in the Spanish second division in 2017 and would go on to make 69 appearances (58 starts) for them over 2 years. As an 18-year-old in the Segunda División, he scored 17 goals and had 6 assists in 35 appearances. He helped Huesca move from the second division to La Liga for 2018-19, but the production was a bit different there.

In La Liga for Huesca, he only managed 4 goals and 3 assists in 34 appearances. He moved to Mallorca on loan the following year, where he had 5 goals and 1 assist in 22 appearances. He then played for Getafe, where he had 2 goals and 3 assists in 23 appearances. He returned (finally) to his parent club, Watford, for the 2021-22 and made 25 appearances, but only 11 starts. He scored 5 goals and had 2 assists in those appearances.

Now with Columbus, Cucho has gotten off to a flying start. He’s made 14 appearances (12 starts) and has 9 goals and 2 assists. Like Zelarayán, Cucho is a wide player that Columbus has put more centrally. His heatmaps above show that change. For Watford (and previous clubs), he was played as a winger. FBref has him as a “forward” for his 4 games with Columbus and the heatmap and starting XIs support that. He’s still drifting wide, but he’s playing much more as a forward.

Now Cucho is only listed at 5’8″ (and a half) and 161 lbs, but he’s been good in the air. He was in the 96th percentile for aerials won for the 2021-22 Premier League season. When compared to all 5 Big European leagues, he was in the 99th percentile. It should be noted, that this is for him as a winger, which is not how he’s playing with Columbus. For Columbus, he’s in the 51st percentile of aerials won, so it’s not quite as high as his PL time, but he’s also being compared with strikers now. I still take this number as a positive.

It’s difficult to dive too much into his percentiles. Watford was not good last year and got relegated. Of course, that fact actually speaks to his talent as some of his percentiles were really impressive. When looking at just the Premier League and comparing him to CAMs/wingers, Cucho is in the 84th percentile for goals, the 86th percentile for non-penalty goals, and the 91st percentile for goals per shot on target. He’s only in the 46th percentile for xG and the 59th percentile for shots on target, but, again, Watford was bad so this probably isn’t a surprise.

While Cucho only had 5 goals last year, Watford only had 34 total on the year. He scored 15% of their goals! The point of all this is that Cucho can score. I’m not sure what exactly his level is, as he tore apart a second division but never got more than 5 at a top-flight club. At only 23, it’s not like he’s a finished product and the potential for him to score loads of goals is real. If I had to guess, I would say we see output similar to his first year at Huesca with Columbus, especially with the positional change factored in.

Cucho passing percentiles vs. MLS forwards over the past 365 days, via FBref

The passing numbers for Cucho are good, even if the completion percentages aren’t. In a lot of ways, his numbers are similar to Zelarayán’s. At the Premier League level, Cucho often struggled with his passing. In MLS, he’s been a lot better. The step down in competition helps explain that, but doesn’t do much to assuage my fears about how dangerous he’ll be for us.

His dribbling numbers were decent in the PL: 71st percentile for dribbles completed, 74th percentile for players dribbled past, and 67th percentile for dribbles attempted. Unsurprisingly, he’s gone to another level in MLS: 96th percentile for dribbles completed, 95th percentile for dribbles attempted, and 96th percentile for players dribbled past.

Looking at all of this, I think Columbus’ decision to convert him to a central forward makes sense. His history shows he can score, but not necessarily that he can pass well. As a center forward, that deficiency is more acceptable. Pairing him with a talented playmaker like Zelarayán and an emerging wide player in Etienne will create a lot of problems for opponents in this league.

Luis Díaz

Díaz is a true wide player for Columbus. Before the first time this match was supposed to be played, Díaz had 15 appearances for Columbus, but only 5 starts. Since then, he’s up to 24 appearances and 15 starts, so he’s definitely worked his way into the lineup.

He’s in his 4th season with Columbus, only has 5 career goals and 11 career assists, and is already 23. On the surface, he doesn’t appear to be that interesting. Yet, I’m intrigued and it mostly has to do with what his heatmap shows us, especially when compared with Etienne on the other side.

What jumps out to me about Díaz’s map is how close to the touchline and far up the pitch he stays. He’s in the 77th percentile for touches in the attacking penalty box and the 64th percentile for touches in the attacking 3rd. These percentages have decreased as he’s had more starts, so they are asking him to drop back a bit more than he was. However, this is still a player who will primarily stay up the pitch.

Compare his positioning to Etienne, who is playing on the other side. Yes, Etienne likes to be by the touchline as well, but he’s far more likely to come into the center of the pitch.

When thinking about the players Columbus has as attackers, the need for Díaz’s positioning makes sense. Cucho and Zelarayán, as we have seen, will drift all over the pitch. While I haven’t shown their maps, Morris and Nagbe are also all over the pitch. The fullbacks will provide width, but Columbus needs some of their advanced players to stay wide and create space. Díaz is doing this job and, from a counting stats perspective, it’s largely an unthankful role.

Where Diaz does excel is as a dribbler. He’s 80th percentile for dribbles completed and 93rd percentile for dribbles attempted (although he’s 16th percentile for successful dribble percentage). He’s able to dribble past opponents (86th percentile) and nutmeg them (94th percentile). When he’s in the attacking 3rd, he carries the ball into the penalty area at an elite rate (99th percentile) and is always available to receive passes upfield (84th percentile for progressive passes received). Finally, because of his trickery, he’s elite at drawing fouls (98th percentile).

Díaz passing percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days, via FBref

Díaz is not a good passer, as his percentiles to the left show. To his credit, it doesn’t look like he’s really being asked to be a passer in the buildup. His numbers are really good for crossing and assists, so the danger is when he has the ball in the final third.

Díaz appears to find his way into the side for two reasons: 1) to hug the touchline and provide width and 2) to drive to the penalty area, be tricky, and draw fouls. In some ways, he’s there to cause chaos. As a whole, his profile doesn’t seem great, but if we view him as carrying out a very specific, narrow role, I actually think he is excelling at that. He’s the Michelle Williams to Zelarayán and Cucho’s Beyoncé and Kelly Rowland. Did that metaphor work?

Conclusion

Columbus are a poor man’s Philadelphia. They play good defense, have a really good goalkeeper, and have talented attackers. However, they don’t defend as well as Philly and they are no where near the offensive threat of the Union. They are certainly dangerous and players like Cucho and Zelarayán will cause our make-shift backline all sorts of problems.

This lineup is going to be a challenge for Lattanzio. We are NOT going to have anything near the lineup we just had with Philadelphia due to these rules.

4️⃣ Charlotte can change out injured players only from bench and it won’t count as a sub

5️⃣ Charlotte FC is allowed a goalie addition to the roster if Kahlina is out

6️⃣ If a non injured player is swapped it will count as a sub. Club can make up to 5 substitutions.
— TopBin90 (@Topbin90) October 4, 2022

Whereas Columbus is going to be able to play this game with basically the lineup they would anyway, Charlotte lined up this way on that night:

Obviously Corujo will be unavailable and Kahlina’s availability is up in the air. McNeill, Bender, Mora, and Reyna have not really featured for Charlotte much recently. That means 6 out of our Starting XI from this game are either non-starters now or injured. Yeah…that’s going to cause issues.

This is a must win game and I would encourage Lattanzio to be brave. Specifically, we should be making subs right away. This is a difficult, and fine, line for him to walk because immediately subbing some of these players will likely not sit right with some of them. With that said, we can make the playoffs and we need the best team we can.

Let’s start here: Jones in for McNeill. This is obvious and needed, as a midfield of Bender, Bronico, and McNeill will get torn apart by Columbus’ attack. Next, give me Mora out for Lindsey. I will say, I’m not sure I see much difference between Mora on the left compared with Afful, but CL certainly does. As such, let’s get Lindsey’s attacking nous in this game.

Świderski has looked good as a 10, but unless we make 3 changes right away, I think we need to try him back as a striker. With 2 subs right away, we’d still have 3 windows to make subs (at the half and 2 more sub periods) to make 3 changes. If the first half doesn’t go well, let’s get Bender and Reyna out for Ríos and Jóźwiak, respectively.

Our center backs are going to be Walkes and Sobociński-we have no other choice. Malanda is ineligible, Makoun is on the Revolution now, and Fuchs had a red card ineligibility for that game. I’m a believer in Sobociński, but man is this a big ask for a young player who hasn’t played much this year.

With all this said, if you can beat Philadelphia 4-0, you can beat any team in this league (on your night). We can’t lose or draw against this team. We have no other choice than for this to be our night.

Prediction: Charlotte 2 – Columbus 1

The Philadelphia Preview, Part II

With the news that the city of Charlotte has called for people not to leave their house unless there’s an emergency and with CMS going virtual on Friday, I’m curious to see how Saturday will go. This is about as unbalanced a game on paper as you can imagine and, with the weather, Charlotte’s biggest advantage-the home crowd-might not be there. Just take a look at these numbers below:

All stats from FBref.com

Team	Possession	Points (standings)	WhoScored team rating (SofaScore team rating)
Charlotte FC	53.1%	38 (10th in the East)	6.51 (6.78)
Philadelphia Union	43.5%	64 (1st in the East)	6.89 (7.02)

All stats from FBref.com

Team	Shots per game	Shots on target per game	Goals for (xG)	Goals against (xGA)
Charlotte FC	11.32	4.06	36 (35.5)	48 (41.4)
Philadelphia Union	12.94	5.00	66 (58.3)	22 (36.0)

Philadelphia has the 3rd worst possession in the league, but it doesn’t matter. They’re an exemplar of how overall possession numbers are meaningless; it’s very much what you do with that possession. This team has scored the most goals in the league (3 more than the next closest teams, Austin and LAFC), has allowed the fewest goals in the league (9 fewer than the next closest team, Columbus, who have also played one less game), leads the league in xG, is the only team above 2.00 goals/90 (2.06/90), is 4th best in the league in xA, and is first in the league in assists (48). This is before we even talk about their individual talent, which we most certainly will.

Formation/Injury Report/Suspension

Philadelphia lineup at RBNY, 9/3/22, via MLS.com

Philadelphia plays mostly in a 4-4-2 (according to FBref) or a 4-3-1-2 (according to MLS). Regardless of how you define it, they are playing with a pretty consistent lineup at this point and will definitely feature a front 2.

Players like Dániel Gazdag, Leon Flach, Kai Wagner, Jakob Glesnes, and Jack Elliott are automatic starters. Then you have players like Cory Burke, who isn’t starting games (just 8 starts on the year) but is featuring in almost every one of Philly’s games (31 total appearances).

Players like Julián Carranza, Alejandro Bedoya, José Andrés Martínez, Mikael Uhre, Nathan Harriel, and Olivier Mbaizo are all regular starters, as well.

Of course, the ability to play (mostly) unchanged lineups is a result of the fact they currently have NO ONE on the injury report. The rich get richer, right?

Philadelphia lineup vs. Orlando, 9/10/22, via MLS.com

Philadelphia lineup at Atlanta, 9/17/22, via MLS.com

Interestingly, Philadelphia did drop points to Atlanta last weekend. They were kind of dominated by Atlanta. If they had won that game, there was a small chance that we might be facing a B-string as they would have 1st place in the East locked up. Of course, they’re battling LAFC for the Supports’ Shield, so that probably wouldn’t have happened. As it stands, Montréal can still catch Philadelphia for 1st in the East, so expect to see a full-strength squad.

Andre Blake

Andre Blake is the best goalkeeper in the league and, in my opinion, it’s not particularly close. He leads the league in save percentage (84%) and, unsurprisingly, is tied for the league lead in clean sheets with 14. When looking at advanced goalkeeping stats, well, he’s still amazing. He is 2nd in the league in PSxG+/- at 9.3. The league leader is Đorđe Petrović of New England who is at +9.6, however, Petrović has only 19 games, while Blake sits at 32. Petrović is having an amazing debut for NE (by the way, how are they going from Turner to someone this good?), but I’d argue the significantly larger sample size from Blake edges him in this discussion.

Now, in any discussion of goalkeeping, it should be noted that the stats are inextricably linked with defense. As such, it’s important to say that Blake is seeing very few shots (10th percentile for shots on target against) and the shots he does see are relatively low difficulty shots (8th in PSxG/SoT at 0.25 per 90). This isn’t a knock against him, as he’s still been phenomenal at stopping whatever he’s facing, but it’s not something that can be ignored either. The defense in front of him is good and he assuredly benefits from it, but at the end of the day, chances are if Blake sees a shot, he stops it, and that in and of itself is mighty impressive.

To add context for all these goalkeeping numbers, Kahlina has allowed 46 goals, has a 68.4% save percentage, is in the 46th percentile of PSxG/SoT (at 0.30 per 90), and has a PSxG+/- of -1.9. For as good as Charlotte fans think Kahlina has been, Blake is simply at a different level. Is he the beneficiary of a good defense? Sure. But over the past 3 seasons, Blake has allowed 18 goals, 24 goals, and 22 goals and his PSxG+/- over these seasons has been +5.8, +7.5, and +9.3. He is absolutely, unequivocably elite for this league.

The one thing Blake does not do, though, is pass the ball. Please note I didn’t say he’s unable to do that, simply that he doesn’t. I honestly don’t know if he is capable or not-Philly has never really asked him to be a distributor. He has a career non-goal kick launch percentage of 49.2%, including 47.9% this year (good for the 79th percentile for the 2022 MLS season). He’s launching goal kicks 74.3% of the time (89th percentile) and attempts only 19.72 passes per 90. Perhaps in a different team, he would be able to provide distribution, or perhaps Philly has adapted their offensive style to his ability (*ahem* take note, Lattanzio, with Kahlina *ahem*). Either way, he’s not asked to do it and it isn’t negatively impacting his team.

Mikael Uhre

One of the more amazing things about Philadelphia is that they have one Designated Player–Uhre. The 27-year-old Dane is in his first year with the club and MLS. He has hit the ground running.

In 25 appearances (19 starts), Uhre has 12 goals and 3 assists on 8.0 xG. None of these goals have been PKs. This is after he had 19 goals and 6 assists for his previous club, Brøndby, in 2020-21 (32 appearances) and 11 goals and 1 assist in 2021-22 (16 appearances). His 2021-22 season was a half-season with the club as he transferred to Philadelphia during the January window.

One of the things that jumps out to me about Uhre, and a number of the other players we’ll look at, is how much freedom they have on the pitch. Uhre is a striker, but he’s drifting all over the pitch. Now, some of this is due to Philadelphia’s style of play, in which they do sit deep and let their opponent have the ball. Nevertheless, his constant movement will make it hard for our backline to keep track of him, as he’s going to drift into a variety of areas on the pitch.

Dániel Gazdag

Gazdag is having a breakout year, although I think it’s been a couple of years in the making. If you look at just his first year in MLS, which was last year, you might not be too impressed. In 2021, he had 23 appearances (17 starts), with 4 goals (1 PK) and 3 assists. Not a bad return, certainly, but nothing close to his 19 goals (6 PKs!) and 5 assists this year. However, look back to his 2020-21 season with the Hungarian side Honvéd and this year’s return starts to make sense. Now, I can’t tell you anything about the difficulty level of the Hungarian first division, but he had 13 goals that year for Honvéd. For a 24-year-old attacking midfielder, that’s very good. If we look at last year as an adjustment year for him to MLS, then his goal contribution this year makes a lot more sense.

I will usually caveat large goal returns like his that are inflated by PKs. He’s tied for first in the league in PKs and, while all goals count, PKs are high percentage shots that don’t always reflect a player’s true goalscoring ability (i.e., a PK has an xG of 0.76. To better that, you usually have to have a tap in directly in front of the goal). In Gazdag’s case, the PKs certainly inflate his numbers, but I don’t think they detract from his actual ability. Even removing those 6 PKs, he is at 13 non-PK goals for the year on 11.8 npxG. Put another way, he would be Charlotte’s leading goalscoring with a 3rd of his goals removed…

Oddly-and I checked FBref, Wikipedia, and SofaScore-I don’t see any information on assists for him during the 2020-21 season with Honvéd. On FBref, it doesn’t even say 0, it just has an empty space in the assists column for that year and for the 2019-20 season. FBref has 0 assists in other seasons for him, so I’m not sure what is happening for these 2 seasons. Regardless of his assist production those years, it’s a very real aspect of his game currently. Those 5 assists have come on 4.6 xA, so there’s not a ton of luck involved in them.

Like Uhre above, Gazdag is also all over the pitch. There’s a definite right-side bias, but it’s not so bad as to make him predictable. He’s going to be another player that will be hard to track and we’ll need Jones and/or Bronico to help the backline out with him.

That’s not to say Gazdag is a perfect player. As his percentiles below show, he’s an elite attacker for a midfielder and his shooting numbers are off the charts. Note also that he’s doing this on a really low (36th percentile) number of shots.

When it comes to passing and technical ability on the ball, though, he’s rather pedestrian. He is progressive with his passing and he doesn’t miscontrol many balls, but outside of those two things, he’s not going to overly concern you with his ability on the ball. This is, of course, nitpicking a player who has been one of the best this entire season.

Gazdag shooting percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days, via FBref.com

Gazdag passing percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days, via FBref.com

Gazdag possession percentiles vs. MLS CAMs/wingers over the past 365 days, via FBref.com

Julián Carranza

The final member of the ridiculous Philly attacking trio is also the youngest. Carranza is only 22 and is in the midst of a true breakout season. He began the year on loan from Inter Miami, where he made 41 appearances (11 starts) over two years, but only scored 3 goals. Philadelphia has made this move permanent and for good reason. He’s at 14 goals (2 PKs) and 6 assists on the year. The assist number is a bit suspect to me, as he only has 1.5 xA on the year, but good players on good teams will have the luck. His goal numbers are not a fluke, as he’s got 12 non-PK goals on 12.1 npxG.

Carranza heatmap, 2022, via SofaScore.com

Like his attacking partners, Carranza will drift, but he shows the most pronounced bias towards a side (the right). Of course, Gazdag operates in those areas of the pitch a lot too, so the ability of Carranza, Gazdag, and Bedoya (more on him in a bit) to combine will be a huge danger for Charlotte. The fact that this will be on our left side, where our left backs and Walkes have been caught out quite a bit recently, doesn’t lend much optimism.

Carranza defensive percentiles vs. MLS forwards over the past 365 days, via FBref.com.

Carranza is a very active defender for a forward. Yes, the primary goal of every striker should be to put the ball in the back of the net. Linking play and putting in a defensive shift are bonuses, but come secondary to actual goalscoring. If Carranza were linking play and being good defensively, but not scoring (see: Alexandre Lacazette at Arsenal) I’d say he needs to focus on what they’re paying him to do. As it is, he’s one of the top scorers in the league and has no problem being an asset when his team doesn’t have the ball. For a team that plays like Philadelphia, this is invaluable.

Supporting Cast

I’d be remiss not to mention a few other players on this team. “Supporting Cast” is probably a misnomer, as any of these players would be valuable players for Charlotte, but I do think they play second fiddle to Philadelphia’s more well-known players.

Bedoya passing percentiles vs. MLS midfielders over the past 365 days, via FBref.com

The first among them will be the most well-known: Alejandro Bedoya. Bedoya is in his 7th season with Philly and, at 35, is having arguably his best season. With 6 goals and 6 assists on the season, Bedoya is thriving as a 4th or 5th attack option.

As his passing percentiles to the left show, he’s dangerous when he’s in and around the penalty box, but otherwise is showing his age. The 6 assists have come on 5.2 xA, so I don’t think they’re a fluke (unlike the 6 goals which are coming on 3.2 xG…), but I’m not sure Charlotte needs to be overly concerned about him having the ball in the middle of the field.

Of course, part of the reason he can be so dangerous is that he plays on the right. He’s a true winger-type (although he’s compared to midfielders on FBref) and hugs the touchline. The fact that defenses have to account for players like Carranza and Gazdag-both of whom favor the right-sided areas of the pitch-certainly helps Bedoya get into those good spaces in and around the box.

Cory Burke is Philadelphia’s 3rd striker. He’s gotten into 31 games, but only started 8 of them. Nonetheless, he has 7 goals and 4 assists on the season (on 6.0 xG and 2.9 xA). It’s his best goal return since 2018 when he had 10 in 29 appearances for Philadelphia. I’m hesitant to call it a fluke because he has a history of goalscoring. On top of that, he’s never really been a starter for Philly so his goal returns look meager, but are impressive on a goal-per-90 basis (0.47 G/90 for his career).

With that said, this is a good squad player, but there’s probably a reason he’s never forced his way into Philly’s Starting XI. Chances are he’ll come off the bench and when he does, the weary legs of Charlotte will need to be aware of him. Like Bedoya, though, being the 4th, 5th, or 6th option on a team this good has been hugely beneficial to him.

Finally, there is Kai Wagner, Philadelphia’s left back. Wagner would probably be most aggrieved to be included in the “supporting cast” category, as he’s a really good player. The 25-year-old German has 8 assists on the season (32 starts) on 7.3 xA. While he doesn’t have a goal this year, he did have 3 last year, so he’s shown he can score. With the players that he has in front of him this year, though, that’s not a necessity.

Wagner passing percentiles vs. MLS fullbacks over the past 365 days, via FBref.com.

Whereas a lot of players I’ve talked about in this post are average to flawed passers, Wagner is very, very good. Ignore the poor number for short distances-he’s not doing it very much and, based on what he’s doing elsewhere, I have no doubts he could improve this if he wanted.

His profile shows an aggressive, progressive passer who isn’t worried about having a high percentage. His progressive passing distance, key passes, crosses, and long passing all show a player who would rather make the killer pass than the safe pass. In a team that gives up possession, this makes sense.

Defensively, Wagner is unspectacular to below-average. He blocks and intercepts the ball well and I’m sure he benefits from the defensive system the club employs. On a more offensive-minded side, I might look to his side as a place to find some joy, and it still might be. However, based on the way Philadelphia plays, he might be a good player to attack when you can, but I wouldn’t consider him “exploitable.”

Conclusion

I’m not sure it can be overstated how good a team this Philadelphia side is. When Charlotte went to LA, I thought we were facing the best team in the league. After seeing what Philadelphia has done, I’m not so sure we did. At the very least, the margins between LAFC and Philadelphia are razor thin and I’d be surprised if it weren’t these two teams in the finals.

So what can Charlotte do? Well, if the weather is as bad as predicted, ugly weather can cause ugly games which can often benefit the less-talented team. Philadelphia will give Charlotte the ball, so we have to make sure that we’re 1) strong with it and 2) brave with it. This is not a team that you’re going to be able to pass around very easily. Someone is going to have to step up and try some riskier passes, but in a smart way.

I’m convinced Malanda has real range in his passing and this would be a good game to showcase it. Świderski has looked good at the 10 and we know he likes to drop back. His ability to find space between the lines and link play will be vital. Unsurprisingly, I’m also going to call for Gaines to play. His pace will test Philadelphia’s backline.

To be honest, I can’t see a real way for Charlotte to win, or even take points, in this game. That’s not to say they won’t, but I think trying to predict how they would do that is impossible. Maybe you didn’t notice as you read, but Philadelphia has 3 players–Gazdag, Carranza, and Uhre–who have more goals than our leading goalscorer (Świderski with 10). Our second leading scorer, Shinyashiki is at 5 goals; he would be Philly’s 6th leading goalscorer. I would love nothing more than for Charlotte to pull the upset, but this feels like a monumental ask. I feel optimistic enough in the fact that I’m predicting a goal.

Prediction: Charlotte 1 – Philadelphia 4