As Charlotte head into the offseason, the obvious questions on the minds of fans are going to be: who will be here next year? Who will leave? More importantly, though, who should leave? I think it’s important to say that we can’t keep the same squad that just missed the playoffs. Some of our favorite players will leave or be supplanted.
A couple things we here at the Crown Cast want to quickly say about this exercise: we support all Charlotte players no matter what. As long as a player is on the squad, we will actively hope and root for them to do well! Our goal in talking about “selling” a player is not to denigrate the person, but rather the product we see on the pitch.
Now, onto the premise of this exercise. The goal of this is to imagine that in 2 to 3 years, Charlotte FC are competing for playoff success. This means they are making the playoffs, winning games in the playoffs, and hopefully competing for the Cup. And if they are doing that, do you “buy, sell, or hold” the statement that a current player will be a valuable member of the squad. If you think they will, they are a “buy.” If you think they won’t, they are are “sell.” If you think we just don’t have enough data, they are a “hold.”
Some further “rules” about this:
- A “buy” player would be someone who is a good starter not only for the club but also MLS as a whole OR an important bench piece.
- Important bench pieces would be players who are consistently coming off of the bench (20-30 minutes a game on a regular basis) or regularly spelling starters in Cup games or during the season.
- Examples of important bench pieces include 3rd CBs, 4th midfielders, and 3rd (maybe even 4th) choice wingers/wide players for our current way of playing. These distinctions depend on the tactics and formations you play. For example, a 3rd CB is a requirement for a team playing a back 3, so a 4th–probably 5th–CB would then be an important bench piece in those teams.
- The goal of this exercise is not to say whether we like a player, think they are worth the salary, or hold more value to the club if they were sold. The question is simply: if he’s on the team in 2-3 years, is he a starter and is he a good starter for a playoff caliber team? Sell-on value will not be considered.
- There won’t be a ton of stats in these pieces. We definitely plan on having some deep analytical dives into many of these players in the future, so stay tuned!
Without further ado, time to get people angry! All members of the site–Logan, Justin, Josh, and Euan–will be giving feedback.
Vinicius Mello
| Logan | Justin | Josh | Euan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | Hold | Hold | Hold |
| Name | Age | Total Season Mins (# of 90s) | Goals (xG) | Assists (xA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinicius Mello | 20 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Mello is the easiest and most obvious decision of this group and there was no divergent opinion.
Euan summed it up the best: Charlotte probably anticipated that Mello would play no major role in the 2022 season as part of his development plan. However, having paid a not-insignificant amount of money for him, you’d expect his chances of playing in 2023 would be much higher as he tries to make his way through a busy position group in the squad.
Kerwin Vargas
| Logan | Justin | Josh | Euan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | Hold | Hold | Hold |
| Name | Age | Total Season Minutes (# of 90s) | Goals (xG) | Assists (xA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwin Vargas | 20 | 633 (7.0) | 0 (0.9) | 0 (1.1) |
Again, holds across the board from the guys. Vargas is youthful and full of potential, but is also extremely raw.
Josh: Vargas’ delivery out wide from dead balls is extremely dangerous and exciting, however, when it comes to live-ball actions there is still a lot of growth to be seen. He often looks unsure about what he should do once he gets into dangerous positions and often “hits and hopes” with the ball.
Justin: My major issue with Vargas is he’s better on the left side of the pitch currently than the right, but not as good as Jóźwiak overall-at least at this point in his development. The question then becomes will he have the opportunity to develop properly?
Euan: There just haven’t been enough minutes for him this season to come to a strong conclusion about him. The 2023 season should be telling and he should be one of the most interesting players to watch.
Logan: His ability to create space for teammates is really good, especially for a young player. With that said, the space isn’t getting utilized and he isn’t providing end product. It’s something that will have to improve quickly.
Andre Shinyashiki
| Logan | Justin | Josh | Euan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Name | Age | Total Season Minutes (# of 90s) | Goals (xG) | Assists (xA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Shinyashiki | 27 | 844 (9.4) | 6 (3.6) | 0 (0.3) |
Our first point of contention. While none of the guys view Andre as a “sell,” Euan hasn’t bought in quite yet.
Euan: One of the most polarizing players in Charlotte’s squad, which by its nature means it’s hard to have anything but a “hold” for him going into next season. A very impressive goal output left people confused as to why he was not able to feature more regularly for the team. The nature of his fit in Lattanzio’s system meant that it did make sense for his role to be predominantly coming off the bench in particular game states. A bench role is best for him and it is hard to “sell” someone who had such a strong goalscoring record. Additionally, he is one of the few players on the team to have ever regularly featured on a strong MLS team (2021 Colorado Rapids).
Justin: He’s too good at scoring goals. He deserves more time, but he bangs in goals at an incredible rate when he does get minutes.
Josh: What position is he? Lattanzio doesn’t seem to see him as a striker or a wide player or a CAM. At least not as a starter. The goalscoring is too hard to ignore and a super-sub bench player is a valuable thing to have. Having recently signed a new deal, you would think he would be promised more playing time than he got and a better role than super-sub. It would be nice to see him get a run of starts to see if he can be a starter for this club.
Yordy Reyna
| Logan | Justin | Josh | Euan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell | Sell | Sell | Sell |
| Name | Age | Total Season Minutes (# of 90s) | Goals (xG) | Assists (xA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordy Reyna | 29 | 845 (9.4) | 3 (2.2) | 3 (1.9) |
The first sell might be one of the more divisive decisions from the panel. Going by the thoughts that are seen on social media and heard in the supporters’ section, the guys might be in the minority here.
Justin: He’s a showboater, and here for himself. You can’t knock his shooting technique, but he doesn’t do all the little things that Jóźwiak does, especially when it comes to tracking back and supporting the defense.
Josh: He’s a “moments” player who can do some incredible things on the pitch, but rarely does so for an entire game. People have overestimated his goalscoring ability (it’s only 3 goals, and 2 came in one game). They also overestimate his dribbling ability (1st percentile for successful dribble %) and he’s a bad passer. He’ll get you a wonder goal once in a while, but you can find better, more consistent players easily. We’ll always have Miami!
Euan: Like with previous seasons in his career, Reyna has managed impressive output despite inconsistency in his playing time. This may lead many to think that he has an important role to play for the club going forward. However, it is hard to envision a team having much success whilst regularly playing someone like Reyna, despite all the obvious talent he brings to the table. Happy to have him around next season but wouldn’t expect him to be here after his contract expires in 2023.
McKinze Gaines
| Logan | Justin | Josh | Euan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Name | Age | Total Season Minutes (# of 90s) | Goals (xG) | Assists (xA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKinze Gaines | 24 | 1,073 (11.9) | 1 (1.8) | 4 (3.9) |
Editor’s note: Josh can not be objective when it comes to Gaines and has the only valid opinion about this.
A bit of mixed bag with Gaines with 2 holds and 2 buys, though not all buys are the same.
Euan: Succesful teams at any level will more often than not have a McKinze Gaines type in their squad. A pacey winger with defensive workrate who prefers to play outverted and threaten the by-line. It’s a dream for any coach that is looking to attack large spaces and play with off-ball intensity. His output and general play is too frustrating for him to be an outright “buy” but I’m still willing to bet that he can be a very useful player at MLS level going forward. (Editor’s note: Euan is a fool and shouldn’t be trusted).
Justin: He’s still young and, like Jóźwiak, I like his upward trend at the end of the season. He’s always been able to get in behind defenses, but his last ball has improved. (Editor’s note: Justin is amazingly brilliant and speaks the truth.)
Logan: He’s not young enough to be a project and we can’t spend 3 years developing him. Moving forward, Gaines should have more than 1 option in the box; he won’t have excuses for not getting better numbers. If he can truly add end product to his passing, he’ll be a nailed on starter for us. If he can’t, he’ll have to go. (Editor’s note: Logan is a quack and hasn’t a clue what he is talking about.)
Josh: Gaines is by far our best right-sided winger and should have been playing over Vargas at the end of the year. His pace is undeniable and his ability to marry that pace with well-timed runs is unmatched on this team. His crossing ability has been much maligned this year, but for the vast majority of the season, he had 1 option in the box (as Logan rightly pointed out). As the season neared its end and with the inclusion of players like Nuno Santos, Świderski’s switch to the 10, and Bronico being pushed up the pitch, he started to have more options in the box and the results followed. He was tied for 2nd on the team in assists (though, admittedly, that might say more about the issues of the team than the play of Gaines) and those came at the end of the year. If you expect a winger to be able to consistently pick out 1 teammate surrounded by multiple defenders, you’re being unrealistic. Finally, while he’s not young in years, he is in game time. Let him play on the right for a full year with players like Santos, Byrne, and Malanda and watch him flourish. (Editor’s note: By far the most knowledgeable member of staff.)
Kamil Jóźwiak
| Logan | Justin | Josh | Euan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Name | Age | Total Season Minutes (# of 90s) | Goals (xG) | Assists (xA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamil Jóźwiak | 24 | 1,151 (12.8) | 0 (1.7) | 3 (2.6) |
Jóźwiak is probably one of the most divisive players on the squad, though not amongst the guys. Only Euan sees him as a hold, while the others have become believers based on his end of year performance.
Justin: He’s trending in the right direction, and he brings an aggressiveness and physicality that I love. He does all the little things-getting back on defense, pressing high, making the unheralded run-that won’t be seen in a stat box but is necessary for a modern wide player.
Josh: Jóźwiak on the right is an immediate sell. Jóźwiak on the left is what we thought he was. Tides go in, tides go out; you can’t explain that. In all seriousness, he’s a player adjusting to a new country and league after having spent his first years outside of his home country in England during a global pandemic for a club that was in absolute disarray. The talent and tools are there, along with the effort. Keep him on the left and I think we see the guy from the last 2 months of the season for the entire year.
Euan: It’s a hold for Jozwiak based mainly off of his pedigree and the 10 or so games I was able to watch of him in preparation for his arrival in Charlotte. His performance last season was underwhelming for a DP but understandable given his rough fit in the team’s system. A fairly strong finish to the season will hopefully be a sign of things to come for Charlotte, but I think his future success at the club is just as reliant on Lattanzio’s adaptability as it is on the player himself. (Editor’s note: the point about Jóźwiak being a DP is a touch point for a lot of Jóźwiak detractors. It’s not a non-issue but there are two important points: 1) he can, and probably will be, bought down from that and 2) don’t blame the player for that, blame the front office evaluation.)
Daniel Ríos
| Logan | Justin | Josh | Euan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | Sell | Sell | Sell |
| Name | Age | Total Season Minutes (# of 90s) | Goals (xG) | Assists (xA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Ríos | 27 | 1,417 (15.7) | 7 (6.4) | 1 (1.6) |
Three sells and Logan on an island.
Josh: Sell him today. Sell him tomorrow. Sell him, sell him, sell him. I have a reputation to keep and I will! Ríos’ end to the season was unreal, amazing, wonderful and completely unsustainable. At 27, we know what Daniel Ríos is: a good professional who should be your 3rd choice striker at best. His best attributes are probably his positioning for tap ins and hold up play. Both are legitimately useful, but other players are better at it, especially when it comes to hold up play. It’s not that Ríos can’t be a useful piece, but rather than you need to have a better version if you want to be truly competitive.
Logan: I fully understand that this hold is based on his recent performances this year, but there are important factors in it. Most importantly, Lattanzio has backed him enough that he needs time to be proven right or wrong. When he says Ríos is a “natural goalscorer” and then he ends the season like he did, he deserves a further chance.
Euan: After a strong finish to the season, many will look at Ríos as a no brainer to be an important piece going forward. For me, I think he provides value as a focal point in some systems and is a good depth player for a competing side. Whether he can be the main number 9 for a side with title ambitions remains to be seen and I’m doubtful he can be that. I believe we’ll likely have our answer around the mid-point of the 2023 season (should he stay healthy and be playing regularly).
Justin: Don’t trust the recent goal output. He’s the most replaceable part of the front line.
Karol Świderski
| Logan | Justin | Josh | Euan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell | Sell | Buy | Buy |
| Name | Age | Total Season Minutes (# of 90s) | Goals (xG) | Assists (xA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karol Świderski | 25 | 2,458 (27.3) | 10 (9.2) | 4 (2.8) |
Ending with the most divisive. While most of these guys have been holds, holds/sells, or holds/buys, Świderski has no middle ground.
Euan: Undoubtedly Charlotte’s best player. Simultaneously the club’s best striker and playmaker. Whether Lattanzio plans to keep him in the #10 role going forward or not will be one of the biggest questions of the off season, but this is an easy “buy.”
Justin: I want to be clear, he’s a sell as a striker. He might be an effective 10 going forward, but he’s not a striker for us. He’s poor up top by himself, and we don’t play a top 2.
Logan: What is he? If he stays as a cornerstone for this club, he’s a sell. He doesn’t have a superpower that you need from a player in his position. If he is your 2nd striker or backup striker, he’s useful. If he’s a “talisman,” it has to be a sell because he won’t take us to where we want to go.
Josh: In a team that struggled to score all year, he had 10 goals. None were penalty kicks. I’m still not convinced he can be a #10, but that position allows him to fulfill his desire to drop back in a way that makes more sense for the team. His passing ability is underrated by many and, while I agree that his finishing can be frustrating, the talent is very real. There is a big question of whether he needs to play with another striker, but I think the lack of talent around him for much of the year is just as likely a reason for his struggles with us as a lone striker as anything else.
Editor’s note: Świderski is the prime example of why we took valuation out of this conversation. There is some question about how much he will play at the World Cup, but it seems likely he will get some minutes (maybe even a good amount). If he were to have a good WC and an offer of $15m came in (that was a rumored price), you have to take the money. Still feels unlikely that kind of money would come in for him.
Conclusion
It’s a work in progress up top. It’s safe to say that there’s no sure-fire, can’t miss player on this team. But the vast majority of our frontmen are young and talented.
Next up will be the midfield, where reinforcements are desperately needed.