With the news that the city of Charlotte has called for people not to leave their house unless there’s an emergency and with CMS going virtual on Friday, I’m curious to see how Saturday will go. This is about as unbalanced a game on paper as you can imagine and, with the weather, Charlotte’s biggest advantage-the home crowd-might not be there. Just take a look at these numbers below:
All stats from FBref.com| Team | Possession | Points (standings) | WhoScored team rating (SofaScore team rating) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC | 53.1% | 38 (10th in the East) | 6.51 (6.78) |
| Philadelphia Union | 43.5% | 64 (1st in the East) | 6.89 (7.02) |
| Team | Shots per game | Shots on target per game | Goals for (xG) | Goals against (xGA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC | 11.32 | 4.06 | 36 (35.5) | 48 (41.4) |
| Philadelphia Union | 12.94 | 5.00 | 66 (58.3) | 22 (36.0) |
Philadelphia has the 3rd worst possession in the league, but it doesn’t matter. They’re an exemplar of how overall possession numbers are meaningless; it’s very much what you do with that possession. This team has scored the most goals in the league (3 more than the next closest teams, Austin and LAFC), has allowed the fewest goals in the league (9 fewer than the next closest team, Columbus, who have also played one less game), leads the league in xG, is the only team above 2.00 goals/90 (2.06/90), is 4th best in the league in xA, and is first in the league in assists (48). This is before we even talk about their individual talent, which we most certainly will.
Formation/Injury Report/Suspension
Philadelphia plays mostly in a 4-4-2 (according to FBref) or a 4-3-1-2 (according to MLS). Regardless of how you define it, they are playing with a pretty consistent lineup at this point and will definitely feature a front 2.
Players like Dániel Gazdag, Leon Flach, Kai Wagner, Jakob Glesnes, and Jack Elliott are automatic starters. Then you have players like Cory Burke, who isn’t starting games (just 8 starts on the year) but is featuring in almost every one of Philly’s games (31 total appearances).
Players like Julián Carranza, Alejandro Bedoya, José Andrés Martínez, Mikael Uhre, Nathan Harriel, and Olivier Mbaizo are all regular starters, as well.
Of course, the ability to play (mostly) unchanged lineups is a result of the fact they currently have NO ONE on the injury report. The rich get richer, right?
Interestingly, Philadelphia did drop points to Atlanta last weekend. They were kind of dominated by Atlanta. If they had won that game, there was a small chance that we might be facing a B-string as they would have 1st place in the East locked up. Of course, they’re battling LAFC for the Supports’ Shield, so that probably wouldn’t have happened. As it stands, Montréal can still catch Philadelphia for 1st in the East, so expect to see a full-strength squad.
Andre Blake
Andre Blake is the best goalkeeper in the league and, in my opinion, it’s not particularly close. He leads the league in save percentage (84%) and, unsurprisingly, is tied for the league lead in clean sheets with 14. When looking at advanced goalkeeping stats, well, he’s still amazing. He is 2nd in the league in PSxG+/- at 9.3. The league leader is Đorđe Petrović of New England who is at +9.6, however, Petrović has only 19 games, while Blake sits at 32. Petrović is having an amazing debut for NE (by the way, how are they going from Turner to someone this good?), but I’d argue the significantly larger sample size from Blake edges him in this discussion.
Now, in any discussion of goalkeeping, it should be noted that the stats are inextricably linked with defense. As such, it’s important to say that Blake is seeing very few shots (10th percentile for shots on target against) and the shots he does see are relatively low difficulty shots (8th in PSxG/SoT at 0.25 per 90). This isn’t a knock against him, as he’s still been phenomenal at stopping whatever he’s facing, but it’s not something that can be ignored either. The defense in front of him is good and he assuredly benefits from it, but at the end of the day, chances are if Blake sees a shot, he stops it, and that in and of itself is mighty impressive.
To add context for all these goalkeeping numbers, Kahlina has allowed 46 goals, has a 68.4% save percentage, is in the 46th percentile of PSxG/SoT (at 0.30 per 90), and has a PSxG+/- of -1.9. For as good as Charlotte fans think Kahlina has been, Blake is simply at a different level. Is he the beneficiary of a good defense? Sure. But over the past 3 seasons, Blake has allowed 18 goals, 24 goals, and 22 goals and his PSxG+/- over these seasons has been +5.8, +7.5, and +9.3. He is absolutely, unequivocably elite for this league.
The one thing Blake does not do, though, is pass the ball. Please note I didn’t say he’s unable to do that, simply that he doesn’t. I honestly don’t know if he is capable or not-Philly has never really asked him to be a distributor. He has a career non-goal kick launch percentage of 49.2%, including 47.9% this year (good for the 79th percentile for the 2022 MLS season). He’s launching goal kicks 74.3% of the time (89th percentile) and attempts only 19.72 passes per 90. Perhaps in a different team, he would be able to provide distribution, or perhaps Philly has adapted their offensive style to his ability (*ahem* take note, Lattanzio, with Kahlina *ahem*). Either way, he’s not asked to do it and it isn’t negatively impacting his team.
Mikael Uhre
One of the more amazing things about Philadelphia is that they have one Designated Player–Uhre. The 27-year-old Dane is in his first year with the club and MLS. He has hit the ground running.
In 25 appearances (19 starts), Uhre has 12 goals and 3 assists on 8.0 xG. None of these goals have been PKs. This is after he had 19 goals and 6 assists for his previous club, Brøndby, in 2020-21 (32 appearances) and 11 goals and 1 assist in 2021-22 (16 appearances). His 2021-22 season was a half-season with the club as he transferred to Philadelphia during the January window.
One of the things that jumps out to me about Uhre, and a number of the other players we’ll look at, is how much freedom they have on the pitch. Uhre is a striker, but he’s drifting all over the pitch. Now, some of this is due to Philadelphia’s style of play, in which they do sit deep and let their opponent have the ball. Nevertheless, his constant movement will make it hard for our backline to keep track of him, as he’s going to drift into a variety of areas on the pitch.
Dániel Gazdag
Gazdag is having a breakout year, although I think it’s been a couple of years in the making. If you look at just his first year in MLS, which was last year, you might not be too impressed. In 2021, he had 23 appearances (17 starts), with 4 goals (1 PK) and 3 assists. Not a bad return, certainly, but nothing close to his 19 goals (6 PKs!) and 5 assists this year. However, look back to his 2020-21 season with the Hungarian side Honvéd and this year’s return starts to make sense. Now, I can’t tell you anything about the difficulty level of the Hungarian first division, but he had 13 goals that year for Honvéd. For a 24-year-old attacking midfielder, that’s very good. If we look at last year as an adjustment year for him to MLS, then his goal contribution this year makes a lot more sense.
I will usually caveat large goal returns like his that are inflated by PKs. He’s tied for first in the league in PKs and, while all goals count, PKs are high percentage shots that don’t always reflect a player’s true goalscoring ability (i.e., a PK has an xG of 0.76. To better that, you usually have to have a tap in directly in front of the goal). In Gazdag’s case, the PKs certainly inflate his numbers, but I don’t think they detract from his actual ability. Even removing those 6 PKs, he is at 13 non-PK goals for the year on 11.8 npxG. Put another way, he would be Charlotte’s leading goalscoring with a 3rd of his goals removed…
Oddly-and I checked FBref, Wikipedia, and SofaScore-I don’t see any information on assists for him during the 2020-21 season with Honvéd. On FBref, it doesn’t even say 0, it just has an empty space in the assists column for that year and for the 2019-20 season. FBref has 0 assists in other seasons for him, so I’m not sure what is happening for these 2 seasons. Regardless of his assist production those years, it’s a very real aspect of his game currently. Those 5 assists have come on 4.6 xA, so there’s not a ton of luck involved in them.
Like Uhre above, Gazdag is also all over the pitch. There’s a definite right-side bias, but it’s not so bad as to make him predictable. He’s going to be another player that will be hard to track and we’ll need Jones and/or Bronico to help the backline out with him.
That’s not to say Gazdag is a perfect player. As his percentiles below show, he’s an elite attacker for a midfielder and his shooting numbers are off the charts. Note also that he’s doing this on a really low (36th percentile) number of shots.
When it comes to passing and technical ability on the ball, though, he’s rather pedestrian. He is progressive with his passing and he doesn’t miscontrol many balls, but outside of those two things, he’s not going to overly concern you with his ability on the ball. This is, of course, nitpicking a player who has been one of the best this entire season.
Julián Carranza
The final member of the ridiculous Philly attacking trio is also the youngest. Carranza is only 22 and is in the midst of a true breakout season. He began the year on loan from Inter Miami, where he made 41 appearances (11 starts) over two years, but only scored 3 goals. Philadelphia has made this move permanent and for good reason. He’s at 14 goals (2 PKs) and 6 assists on the year. The assist number is a bit suspect to me, as he only has 1.5 xA on the year, but good players on good teams will have the luck. His goal numbers are not a fluke, as he’s got 12 non-PK goals on 12.1 npxG.
Like his attacking partners, Carranza will drift, but he shows the most pronounced bias towards a side (the right). Of course, Gazdag operates in those areas of the pitch a lot too, so the ability of Carranza, Gazdag, and Bedoya (more on him in a bit) to combine will be a huge danger for Charlotte. The fact that this will be on our left side, where our left backs and Walkes have been caught out quite a bit recently, doesn’t lend much optimism.
Carranza is a very active defender for a forward. Yes, the primary goal of every striker should be to put the ball in the back of the net. Linking play and putting in a defensive shift are bonuses, but come secondary to actual goalscoring. If Carranza were linking play and being good defensively, but not scoring (see: Alexandre Lacazette at Arsenal) I’d say he needs to focus on what they’re paying him to do. As it is, he’s one of the top scorers in the league and has no problem being an asset when his team doesn’t have the ball. For a team that plays like Philadelphia, this is invaluable.
Supporting Cast
I’d be remiss not to mention a few other players on this team. “Supporting Cast” is probably a misnomer, as any of these players would be valuable players for Charlotte, but I do think they play second fiddle to Philadelphia’s more well-known players.
The first among them will be the most well-known: Alejandro Bedoya. Bedoya is in his 7th season with Philly and, at 35, is having arguably his best season. With 6 goals and 6 assists on the season, Bedoya is thriving as a 4th or 5th attack option.
As his passing percentiles to the left show, he’s dangerous when he’s in and around the penalty box, but otherwise is showing his age. The 6 assists have come on 5.2 xA, so I don’t think they’re a fluke (unlike the 6 goals which are coming on 3.2 xG…), but I’m not sure Charlotte needs to be overly concerned about him having the ball in the middle of the field.
Of course, part of the reason he can be so dangerous is that he plays on the right. He’s a true winger-type (although he’s compared to midfielders on FBref) and hugs the touchline. The fact that defenses have to account for players like Carranza and Gazdag-both of whom favor the right-sided areas of the pitch-certainly helps Bedoya get into those good spaces in and around the box.
Cory Burke is Philadelphia’s 3rd striker. He’s gotten into 31 games, but only started 8 of them. Nonetheless, he has 7 goals and 4 assists on the season (on 6.0 xG and 2.9 xA). It’s his best goal return since 2018 when he had 10 in 29 appearances for Philadelphia. I’m hesitant to call it a fluke because he has a history of goalscoring. On top of that, he’s never really been a starter for Philly so his goal returns look meager, but are impressive on a goal-per-90 basis (0.47 G/90 for his career).
With that said, this is a good squad player, but there’s probably a reason he’s never forced his way into Philly’s Starting XI. Chances are he’ll come off the bench and when he does, the weary legs of Charlotte will need to be aware of him. Like Bedoya, though, being the 4th, 5th, or 6th option on a team this good has been hugely beneficial to him.
Finally, there is Kai Wagner, Philadelphia’s left back. Wagner would probably be most aggrieved to be included in the “supporting cast” category, as he’s a really good player. The 25-year-old German has 8 assists on the season (32 starts) on 7.3 xA. While he doesn’t have a goal this year, he did have 3 last year, so he’s shown he can score. With the players that he has in front of him this year, though, that’s not a necessity.
Whereas a lot of players I’ve talked about in this post are average to flawed passers, Wagner is very, very good. Ignore the poor number for short distances-he’s not doing it very much and, based on what he’s doing elsewhere, I have no doubts he could improve this if he wanted.
His profile shows an aggressive, progressive passer who isn’t worried about having a high percentage. His progressive passing distance, key passes, crosses, and long passing all show a player who would rather make the killer pass than the safe pass. In a team that gives up possession, this makes sense.
Defensively, Wagner is unspectacular to below-average. He blocks and intercepts the ball well and I’m sure he benefits from the defensive system the club employs. On a more offensive-minded side, I might look to his side as a place to find some joy, and it still might be. However, based on the way Philadelphia plays, he might be a good player to attack when you can, but I wouldn’t consider him “exploitable.”
Conclusion
I’m not sure it can be overstated how good a team this Philadelphia side is. When Charlotte went to LA, I thought we were facing the best team in the league. After seeing what Philadelphia has done, I’m not so sure we did. At the very least, the margins between LAFC and Philadelphia are razor thin and I’d be surprised if it weren’t these two teams in the finals.
So what can Charlotte do? Well, if the weather is as bad as predicted, ugly weather can cause ugly games which can often benefit the less-talented team. Philadelphia will give Charlotte the ball, so we have to make sure that we’re 1) strong with it and 2) brave with it. This is not a team that you’re going to be able to pass around very easily. Someone is going to have to step up and try some riskier passes, but in a smart way.
I’m convinced Malanda has real range in his passing and this would be a good game to showcase it. Świderski has looked good at the 10 and we know he likes to drop back. His ability to find space between the lines and link play will be vital. Unsurprisingly, I’m also going to call for Gaines to play. His pace will test Philadelphia’s backline.
To be honest, I can’t see a real way for Charlotte to win, or even take points, in this game. That’s not to say they won’t, but I think trying to predict how they would do that is impossible. Maybe you didn’t notice as you read, but Philadelphia has 3 players–Gazdag, Carranza, and Uhre–who have more goals than our leading goalscorer (Świderski with 10). Our second leading scorer, Shinyashiki is at 5 goals; he would be Philly’s 6th leading goalscorer. I would love nothing more than for Charlotte to pull the upset, but this feels like a monumental ask. I feel optimistic enough in the fact that I’m predicting a goal.
Prediction: Charlotte 1 – Philadelphia 4